Multinational Planning Augmentation Team
(MPAT)
Mission Analysis
Purpos
e
Discuss techniques and procedures
for conducting an operational level
mission analysis for multinational
operations
-First step of Commander’s Estimate
process
-Operational level (includes strategic
military and politico-military
objectives)
References

Joint Publication 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations,
1 Feb 1995

JP 3-07.6, Joint Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
for Foreign Humanitarian Assistance, 12 Dec 2000

JP 3-16, Joint Doctrine for Multinational Operations,
5 April 2000

JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and
Procedures, 13 Jan 1999

Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Manual 3500.05, JTF
Headquarters Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 1997

US-Thailand HQ and Staff Planning Standing Operating
Procedures (SOP), 17 February 1998
Crisis Action Planning Process
C
R
I
S
I
S
I
Situation
Development
II
Crisis
Assessment
III
Course of
Action
Development
IV
Course of
Action
Selection
V
Execution
Planning
OPORD
&
Deployment
Data Base
VI
Execution
And/or
Warning
Order
I
Mission Analysis
II
Course of Action
Development
Planning
Order
Alert
Order
Execute
Order
III
Analysis of Opposing
Courses of Action
IV
Comparison of Own
Courses of Action
Commander’s Estimate Process
V
Commander’s
Decision
Mission Analysis Objectives

Common understanding of the problem

Multinational force (MNF) or CTF restated
mission

Most probable & most challenging or
dangerous potential change in the situation
/ Enemy COA (ECOA)

Commander’s intent and guidance
Mission Analysis
Joint Planning Group
Joint
Intelligence
Center
Personnel
Air/Sea
Lift
Time
Phased Force
Deployment
Data
Information
Operations
Legal
Comms
Core planning
group
Special
Operations
Forces
Psychological
Operations
Fires
Engineer
Civil
Affairs
Component
Liaison
Officers
Public
Affairs
Logistics
Task Steps
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission & Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure Analysis
Initial Risk Assessment
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief
Determine Known Facts, Current Status,
or Conditions
Determine
Determine
the
the
Facts
Facts
Develop
DevelopAssumptions
Assumptions

Analyze
AnalyzeMission
Mission
&&Intent
Intent
–
Determine
DetermineLimitations
Limitations
–
Determine
DetermineCenters
Centers
ofofGravity
Gravity
–
–
Identify
IdentifyTasks
Taskstotobe
be
Performed
Performed
Initial
InitialForce
ForceStructure
Structure
Analysis
Analysis
Initial
Risk
Initial
Risk
Initial
Risk
Assessment
Assessment
Assessment
Tasking from the national strategic
command of the lead nation (HHQ) will
normally include the following:

Situation update
Forces available for planning
Time constraints
Command relationships
Can come in the form of a WARNING
ORDER, ALERT ORDER, or PLANNING
ORDER
Determine
Determinethe
theEnd
End
Analysis
State
State
Develop
DevelopMission
Mission
Statement
Statement
Mission
Mission
Analysis
Analysis
Brief
Brief
Mission Analysis
Determine Facts
CTF Staff



Using all sources, identify significant and militarily relevant aspects of
the environment and the situation
Staff sections determine:
– Current status or condition
– Other known facts
Monitor joint planning group (CPG) outputs
Example: Known Facts, Status, Conditions
Status as of 12 Nov 00
–Dead
–Injured
–Missing
–Affected
–Homeless
326
464
206
3M
460K
Mt Canlaon Volcanic Activity
–Last event 3 Nov
–3 plumes 15 km high; ash blowing west 300 km
–97,000 people evacuated from Canloan & La Carlota
–Safe haven camp vicinity San Carlos f/ 100,000
Super Typhoon Julie
–Hit southern Philippines 10 Nov (Visayas, N. Mindanao)
–Negros - San Carlos camp (100K) loss of shelter
–454,499 homeless
–38 evacuation centers
Determine Facts
CPG

HHQ mission, intent, concepts

Forces available, readiness status

Review lift priority and allocation

Other organizations available

Host nation’s / coalition
governments’ political situation

Host nation ability to respond

Time analysis
C4-Logistics

Logistical readiness of the force

Availability of support and infrastructure
in operations area

Deployment estimates

Host nation support (HNS)
Aerial Ports of Debarkation
(APODs)
APOD
Runway
Capability
Palawan
C-141 a/c
2 a/c
30,000 gal.
No
Cebu
C-5 a/c
6 a/c
200,000 gal.
Yes
City X
City Y
City Z
Maximum
on ground
Fuel
Storage
On-Site
Maintenance
Determine Facts
C5-Plans and Policy
Political considerations:




Over flight / basing rights
Transient personnel staging
Logistics support (facilities and HNS)
Agreements in force (status of forces, treaties, etc.)
C6-Communications

Available communications resources

Communications readiness of
available forces

Communications requirements
Assumptio
n
Determine
Determine
the
the
Facts
Facts
Develop
DevelopAssumptions
Assumptions
Analyze
AnalyzeMission
Mission
&&Intent
Intent
Determine
DetermineLimitations
Limitations
Determine
DetermineCenters
Centers
ofofGravity
Gravity
Identify
IdentifyTasks
Taskstotobe
be
Performed
Performed
Initial
InitialForce
ForceStructure
Structure
Analysis
Analysis
A supposition on the current situation, or
a presupposition on the future course of
events, either or both assumed to be
true in the absence of positive proof,
necessary to enable the commander, in
the process of planning, to complete an
estimate of the situation and make a
decision on the course of action.
Initial
Risk
Initial
Risk
Initial
Risk
Assessment
Assessment
Assessment
Determine
Determinethe
theEnd
End
Analysis
State
State
Develop
DevelopMission
Mission
Statement
Statement
Mission
Mission
Analysis
Analysis
Brief
Brief
Mission Analysis
Develop Assumptions




Replace missing or unknown facts in planning
May cover
–
Belligerent Situation
–
Friendly Situation
–
Success of supporting operations
–
Environment
Must be logical, realistic, and essential for planning to continue
Never assume away belligerent capabilities
Example: Planning Assumptions

Host country will allow temporary basing of Troop Contributing Nations (TCNs)

APODs and sea ports of debarkation (SPODs) are operational

TCNs are self-sustaining for first 72 hours

Weather will remain favorable for duration of mission

No other contingencies for USPACOM for duration of mission

Host nation will be the CTF lead nation
Analyze HHQ Mission and Intent
Determine
Determinethe
theFacts
Facts

Political end state
Develop
DevelopAssumptions
Assumptions

HHQ mission, intent, and strategic military
end state

Define and analyze the operations area

Identify tasks from outside the military
Analyze
AnalyzeMission
Mission
&&Intent
Intent
Determine
DetermineLimitations
Limitations
Determine
DetermineCenters
Centers
ofofGravity
Gravity
Identify
IdentifyTasks
Taskstotobe
be
Performed
Performed
Initial
InitialForce
ForceStructure
Structure
Analysis
Analysis
InitialRisk
Risk
Initial
Initial
Risk
Assessment
Assessment
Assessment
Determine
Determinethe
theEnd
End
Analysis
State
State
–
National public statements
–
National political influence: are there any
limitations?
–
International organizations (IO), nongovernmental organizations (NGO), & regional
organizations involved
–
Contracts with private businesses
Develop
DevelopMission
Mission
Statement
Statement
Mission
Mission
Analysis
Analysis
Brief
Brief
Mission Analysis
Determine Limitations
Determine
Determine
the
the
Facts
Facts
Develop
DevelopAssumptions
Assumptions

Analyze
AnalyzeMission
Mission
&&Intent
Intent
Limitations placed on the CTF
–
Constraints: Things the CTF
must do
–
Restraints: Things the CTF
cannot do
Determine
DetermineLimitations
Limitations
Determine
DetermineCenters
Centers
ofofGravity
Gravity
Identify
IdentifyTasks
Taskstotobe
be
Performed
Performed
Initial
InitialForce
ForceStructure
Structure
Analysis
Analysis
Initial
InitialRisk
Risk
Assessment
Assessment

Imposed by higher headquarters

Implied by conditions,
circumstances
Determine
Determinethe
theEnd
End
Analysis
State
State
Develop
DevelopMission
Mission
Statement
Statement
Mission
Mission
Analysis
Analysis
Brief
Brief
Mission Analysis
Determine Centers of Gravity
Determine
the
Facts
Determine
the
Facts
Develop
DevelopAssumptions
Assumptions

Definition: Those characteristics, capabilities, or
localities from which a military force derives its
freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight.

Analyze both threat and friendly centers of gravity
– Used as a tool to help determine strengths and
weaknesses

Some examples of friendly centers of gravity for HA /
DR include:
– Airlift, speed of response, coalition cohesion
Analyze
AnalyzeMission
Mission
&&Intent
Intent
Determine
DetermineLimitations
Limitations
Determine Centers
Of Gravity
Identify
IdentifyTasks
Taskstotobe
be
Performed
Performed
Initial
InitialForce
ForceStructure
Structure
Analysis
Analysis
Conduct
Initial Risk
Initial
Risk
Initial
Risk
Assessment
Assessment
Determine
Determinethe
theEnd
End
Analysis
State
State
Develop
DevelopMission
Mission
Statement
Statement
Mission
Analysis
Mission
Analysis
Brief
Brief
Mission Analysis
Identify Tasks
Determine
the
Facts
Determine
the
Facts
Develop
DevelopAssumptions
Assumptions

Specified -- Stated in the HHQ
directive

Implied -- Not stated, but
necessary to do the mission

Essential -- Of the above, those
which must be done to achieve
success
Analyze
Analyze Mission
Mission
&&Intent
Intent
Determine
DetermineLimitations
Limitations
Determine
DetermineCenters
Centers
Determine
Centers
of
Gravity
of Gravity
Gravity
of
Identify
IdentifyTasks
Tasksto
tobe
be
Performed
Performed
Initial
InitialForce
ForceStructure
Structure
Analysis
Analysis
Conduct
Initial Risk
Initial
InitialRisk
Risk
Assessment
Assessment
Determine
Determinethe
theEnd
End
Analysis
State
State
Develop
DevelopMission
Mission
Statement
Statement
Mission
Analysis
Mission
Analysis
Brief
Brief
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Worksheet
Tasks
Specified
Implied
Essential
(1) Conduct needs assessment
(2) Deploy forces
(3) Provide HA/DR support to host nation
(1) Coordinate with NGOs & IOs
(2) Provide force protection
(1) Deploy forces
(2) Provide HA/DR support to host nation
(3) Provide force protection
Specified & Implied Tasks
TASK
Army Navy
AF
USMC
x
1. Initial Assessment
2. Coordinate w/ NGOs
x
x
3. Port security
x
x
4. Provide security for camps
5. Provide temporary shelter
6. Provide ground transport
x
x
x
7. Distribute food & water
8. Provide air traffic control
SOF
x
x
All specified and implied
tasks should be assigned to
a CTF component
Initial Force Structure Analysis
Determine
the
Facts
Determine
the
Facts
Develop
DevelopAssumptions
Assumptions

Capabilities required to
accomplish tasks?

What non-traditional / nonmilitary tasks can be
performed by military forces?

What coalition forces do we
already have?

What are the shortfalls?
Analyze
Analyze Mission
Mission
&&Intent
Intent
Determine
DetermineLimitations
Limitations
Determine
DetermineCenters
Centers
Determine
Centers
of
Gravity
of Gravity
Gravity
of
IdentifyTasks
Tasksto
tobe
be
Identify
Performed
Performed
Initial
InitialForce
ForceStructure
Structure
Analysis
Analysis
Initial
Conduct
Initial Risk
InitialRisk
Risk
Assessment
Assessment
Determine
Determinethe
theEnd
End
Analysis
State
State
Develop
DevelopMission
Mission
Statement
Statement
Mission
Analysis
Mission
Analysis
Brief
Brief
Mission Analysis
Initial Risk Assessment
Determine
the
Facts
Determine
the
Facts
Develop
DevelopAssumptions
Assumptions

What are the risks associated with
the mission assigned by HHQ
(looting, mission creep)?

Do limitations, assigned tasks or
assumptions create risk?

What degree of risk is HHQ willing
to accept?

What can we do to minimize risk?
Analyze
Analyze Mission
Mission
&&Intent
Intent
Determine
DetermineLimitations
Limitations
Determine
DetermineCenters
Centers
Determine
Centers
of
Gravity
of Gravity
Gravity
of
Identify
IdentifyTasks
Tasksto
tobe
be
Performed
Performed
Initial
InitialForce
ForceStructure
Structure
Analysis
Analysis
Conduct
Initial Risk
Initial
InitialRisk
Risk
Assessment
Assessment
Determine
Determinethe
theEnd
End
Analysis
State
State
Develop
DevelopMission
Mission
Statement
Statement
Mission
Analysis
Mission
Analysis
Brief
Brief
Mission Analysis
Determine End State
Determine
the
Facts
Determine
the
Facts
Develop
DevelopAssumptions
Assumptions
Analyze
Analyze Mission
Mission
&&Intent
Intent
Determine
DetermineLimitations
Limitations
Determine
DetermineCenters
Centers
Determine
Centers
of
Gravity
of Gravity
Gravity
of
IdentifyTasks
Tasksto
tobe
be
Identify
Performed
Performed
Initial
InitialForce
ForceStructure
Structure
Analysis
Conduct
Initial Risk
Initial
InitialRisk
Risk
Assessment
Assessment
Determine
the
End
Determining
the
End
Analysis
State
Develop
DevelopMission
Mission
Statement
Statement
Mission
Analysis
Mission
Analysis
Brief
Brief

Review HHQ guidance

Consider conditions for transition of the mission to
nonmilitary organizations

Consider conditions necessary to support the population
once military operations terminate

Specifically describe and record end state conditions
–
Example HA / DR end state conditions: food
distribution reestablished, refugee camps established,
basic infrastructure restored
Operational End State
Achieving the desired end state seldom, if ever, ends
international efforts to protect interests in a situation.
The term end state simply represents the set of
conditions necessary to resolve a crisis and transition
from predominant use of the military instrument of
national power to other instruments.
Mission Analysis
Restated Mission

Who: CTF BAYANIHAN

What: Essential tasks

When: When directed by HHQ

Where: Combined operations area

Why: Operational end state
Determine
the
Facts
Determine
the
Facts
Develop
DevelopAssumptions
Assumptions
Analyze
Analyze Mission
Mission
&&Intent
Intent
Determine
DetermineLimitations
Limitations
Determine
DetermineCenters
Centers
Determine
Centers
of
Gravity
of Gravity
Gravity
of
IdentifyTasks
Tasksto
tobe
be
Identify
Performed
Performed
Initial
InitialForce
ForceStructure
Structure
Analysis
Conduct
Initial Risk
Initial
InitialRisk
Risk
Assessment
Assessment
Determine
the
End
Determining
the
End
Analysis
State
Develop
DevelopMission
Mission
Statement
Statement
Mission
Analysis
Mission
Analysis
Brief
Brief
Example CTF Mission Statement
When directed, CTF BAYANIHAN conducts
humanitarian assistance operations in support of
the Armed Forces of the Philippines in the affected
areas of the central Philippines in order to alleviate
human suffering and restore critical infrastructure.
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief
Determine
the
Facts
Determine
the
Facts
Develop
DevelopAssumptions
Assumptions
Analyze
Analyze Mission
Mission
&&Intent
Intent
Chief of Staff or C3 / C5


Determine
DetermineLimitations
Limitations
Determine
DetermineCenters
Centers
Determine
Centers
of
Gravity
of Gravity
Gravity
of
Purpose and agenda
Area of operations (Combined
Operations Area)
C2
IdentifyTasks
Tasksto
tobe
be
Identify
Performed
Performed

Initial intelligence estimate
Initial
InitialForce
ForceStructure
Structure
Analysis

Most probable future situation
Most challenging / dangerous
future situation
Center of Gravity Analysis
Conduct
Initial Risk
Initial
InitialRisk
Risk
Assessment
Assessment
Determine
the
End
Determining
the
End
Analysis
State


Develop
DevelopMission
Mission
Statement
Statement
Mission Analysis
Brief
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief
COS / C3 / C5





HHQ mission, intent & concept
of operations
Forces currently available (from
all troop contributing nations)
Assumptions
Limitations - must do & cannot
do
Centers of gravity / decisive
points - belligerent and friendly

Tasks to be performed:
–Specified
–Implied
–Essential

Initial CTF force structure analysis

Risk assessment

End state

Proposed mission statement

Time analysis - including projected
planning milestones
Mission Analysis Brief
C1

Facts, assumptions, conclusions
– Personnel actions
– Personnel services
– Other personnel related support
C4

Facts, assumptions, conclusions
– Supply
– Services
– Health services
– Transportation
– Other
Others

Others as appropriate to the
mission
Crisis Action Planning Process
C
R
I
S
I
S
I
Situation
Development
II
Crisis
Assessment
III
Course of
Action
Development
IV
Course of
Action
Selection
V
Execution
Planning
OPORD
&
Deployment
Data Base
VI
Execution
And/or
Warning
Order
I
Mission Analysis
II
Course of Action
Development
Planning
Order
Alert
Order
Execute
Order
III
Analysis of Opposing
Courses of Action
IV
Comparison of Own
Courses of Action
Commander’s Estimate Process
V
Commander’s
Decision
Task Steps
Determine the Facts
Develop Assumptions
Analyze Mission & Intent
Determine Limitations
Determine Centers of Gravity
Identify Tasks to be Performed
Initial Force Structure Analysis
Initial Risk Assessment
Determine the End State
Develop Mission Statement
Mission Analysis
Mission Analysis Brief