Business Session I:
Development Strategies, Governance
and Human Development
General Economics Division (GED)
Planning Commission
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Development Vision of the Govt.
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The government has adopted a long term vision for the
development of the country that will be reflected in the long
term Perspective Plan (2010-2021). The Perspective Plan has
some specific objectives:
Eliminate illiteracy by 2014;
Attain cent percent enrolment in the 12th class by 2021 with
gender parity;
Reduce poverty to 15% or less by 2021;
Strengthen IT to establish a digital Bangladesh;
Emphasise energy availability to provide per capita energy
consumption of about 600 kWh by 2021;
The nation wants to be a prosperous middle income country by
2021
GED
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Sixth Five Year Plan (2011-15)
This Plan would emphasise:
 Accelerated
Economic Growth;
 Employment Creation;
 Universal Social Protection for the Hardcore
Poor;
 Role of Market, State & Community to be
harmonized;
 PPP to be encouraged to invigorate private
investment;
 Regional and Sub-Regional Connectivity for
making Bangladesh an open economy;
 Gender Responsive Plan;
GED
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Sixth Five Year Plan (contd)
 Technology
base to be strengthened for
‘Digital Bangladesh’;
 Human Resources Development will receive
top most priority;
 Environment and Climate Change adaptation
mechanism to be ensured;
 Good
Governance, Human Rights and
Democratic Polity to be ensured;
 Least-Cost National Security systems to be
adopted;
 Effective Implementation and Monitoring will
receive priority.
GED
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Planned Development: Perspective
Plan, SFYP, PRSP II (in vogue)
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For realizing the Vision, the government would
start implementation of Sixth Five Year Plan
(2011-2015) from July 2010 for balanced
development;
The present NSAPR II shall remain in force until
FY11;
The time frame for MTBF (medium term budget
framework) shall be extended from three to five
years to match with the Five Year Plan process;
MTBF shall ensure efficient use of public resources
and transparency as well as link budgetary
process as an instrument for realizing policy
objectives.
GED
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Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
(PRSP)
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PRSP
II
completely
a
homegrown
document owned by the government;
The Revised NSAPR II (Steps Towards
Change: NSAPR II FY: 2009-11) reflects
AL led Government’s development vision
in terms of poverty reduction, economic
growth and other socio-economic goals.
GED GED
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Revised NSAPR II: Five Priority Areas
(Medium term action in the light of long term vision)
are:
1. maintenance of macroeconomic stability and
stabilising commodity prices (in the face of global
economic meltdown);
2. continue effective actions against corruption;
3. ensure adequacy of energy and power ;
4. elimination of poverty and inequality; and
5. establishment of good governance at every tiers of
the Government.
GED
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Achievements:
Macroeconomic stability
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GDP growth has been steadily increasing and reached
over 6 percent;
National saving (32.4% of GDP) is 7-8 percentage points
higher than aggregate investment (24.6% of GDP);
Current account balance is higher since last year which is
2.4% of GDP;
Foreign reserve is increasing and exceeded US$ 10
billion;
Total remittance receipts rose by 22.4%;
The per capita GDP exceeds US$ 600;
Bangladesh economy withstood the global financial crisis
effectively showing strong resilience and inner strength.
GED
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Progress in poverty reduction
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The national head count index of poverty measured by the
upper poverty line declined from 56.6 percent in 1991-92
to 40.0 percent in 2005;
The poverty has been estimated at 38.0 percent in 2008;
Cash transfers programme, Food security programme,
Housing programme for landless or homeless, special
programmes for poverty alleviation and micro-credit
programmes for self-employment are doubled;
All indicators like life expectancy at birth (66.6 year), infant
mortality rate (43 per thousand), population having access
to drinking water (97.8%), and adult literacy rate (56.3%)
have shown significant improvements.
GED
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Progress in achieving MDGs particularly
in health and education
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Bangladesh has successfully achieved gender parity in
primary and secondary education;
The country is on track to achieve the targets of
halving the proportion of people living below the
poverty line;
The estimated poverty level in 2015 would be less
than 30 percent, equal to the MDG target;
The prevalence of underweight children at the national
level will be 36.5 percent in 2015 (MDG target 33%);
Complete coverage in primary enrolment will be
achieved within 2011;
The under-five mortality rate (60 per thousand life
birth in 2007) will reach even below the target (48 per
thousand) within 2010.
10
GED
Reforms in governance
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Judiciary has been separated from the executive branch of the
government;
The Anti Corruption Commission has been reconstituted and made
independent;
The Election Commission has been enjoying the independent status;
The Right to Information Act 2009 has been passed in the
parliament;
An independent Information Commission has been constituted;
In a bid to strengthening the local government system, Upazila
Parishad Election was held in 2009 after two decades of nonfunctioning and other local council elections will be held in 2010;
The Government has promulgated a new law titled’ Public Money & Budget
Management Act- 2009’ to ensure accountability to the Parliament.
GED
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Promoting Gender Equality
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Government introduced quota system
Parliament and in the government services;
in
the
Gender responsive budget preparation system has
been introduced through MTBF to monitor poverty
reduction and their development;
The number of reserved seats of women in the
parliament has been increased to 45 from 30;
Bangladesh has already achieved gender parity in
primary and secondary education at the national
level.
GED
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Challenges Ahead:
Enabling macroeconomic environment for
pro-poor growth
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Annual GDP growth is projected to grow to 6.0% in
FY10, 6.7% in FY11, and 7.2% in FY12;
Inflation rate is projected to decline during the NSAPR
II period, investment/GDP is projected to improve,
revenue/GDP and government expenditure/GDP are
projected to improve in FY10. Budget deficit will be
contained within 5% of GDP;
However, the challenge would be to raise and
consolidate domestic resource mobilization efforts,
increase tax GDP ratio, increase private sector
confidence shrunk as a consequence of on-going global
economic downturn and power shortage;
Expansion of tax base and streamline the banking
system
to
generate
domestic
resources
for
development financing.
GED
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Social Protection for the Vulnerable
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SSNP has been envisioned in the perspective plan
(2010-2021) to protect the poor and disadvantage
group from social evils, economic hardship and
natural shocks;
The NSAPR II has put social protection of the
vulnerable at one of the top of its agenda;
For sustaining the government’s programmes in
the long-run generous supports from the
development partners is needed.
GED
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Development of Human resources
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Establish a Knowledge-based society;
In the revised NSAPR II, 582.30 billion taka or US $ 8.44
billion (20.69% of total) is estimated for Education, training
and research making this as a number one priority;
Ensure quality health, nutrition and family welfare services
which are affordable, attainable and acceptable to the
people;
The government plans to establish 18,000 Community
Clinics (CCs) in phases to ensure access of the poor to
public health care services;
The Government has taken improving access and quality of
education, health, nutrition and social protection services for
all vulnerable groups though is a challenge.
GED
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Promoting good governance
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Making parliamentary process effective;
Reorganization of civil service and strengthening the public
service system based on merit and performance;
Reforming the legal and judicial system to ensure judicial help
for the poor and women;
Rule of Law to be firmly established;
Combating corruption, ensuring human rights, accessing
information, improving project implementation capacity;
Initiating
some
reforms
particularly
in
decentralizing
government to be more responsive to citizen’s priorities and
needs will be attempted though challenging;
Improve public services delivery through GO-NGO collaboration
and ensure public sector performance and accountability.
GED
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Enhancing productivity and efficiency
through science and technology
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The quality of life of people of the
disadvantaged groups will be improved
through enhancing quality of education
and
health
care
by
innovative
application of ICT;
Enhancing productivity in agriculture
through the application of biotechnology.
GED
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Thoughts on Way forward
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Ensure full implementation of the NSAPR-II and SFYP to accelerate
growth and reduce poverty;
Increasing revenues and investment for buttressing development
and growth;
Partnering with the private sector to realize full potential of the
economy;
Making public expenditure more effective through improvements in
budgeting, budget-planning linkages and through aid effectiveness;
Increasing Regional cooperation especially in cross-border trade,
transport and energy;
Building a better governed Bangladesh through an improved
accountability framework and reforms to civil service which rewards
merit and performance, and e-governance;
Bringing ‘services to people’s doorsteps’ by decentralizing services,
strengthening local government and enhancing local accountability
mechanisms;
Improve access to and utilization of quality education, health,
nutrition and social protection services;
Implementing Bangladesh Climate Changes Strategy and Action
Plan.
GED
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Role of the Development Partners in Facing Global
Financial Crisis
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Adverse effect of global financial crisis is evident as our
export earning from readymade garments, frozen foods,
jute and jute goods and leather are showing downward
trend, and likely to be severely hit, if the financial crisis
prolongs;
Contraction
of
employment
opportunities
globally,
particularly in the Middle east may hit our remittance flow;
Bangladesh’s main export item of readymade garments are
facing uneven competition in the US and European markets.
As least developed country Bangladesh should be granted
duty free and quota free access to the US market, and rule
of origin criterion may be relaxed for entry into European
market;
GED
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Facing Global Crises (Contd.)
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Bangladesh should receive enhanced
under Aid for Trade instrument.
support
In order to address these challenges we need strong
support from our development partners in the form of
direct investment, unhindered market access for our
exports, simplification and relaxation of rules of origin,
capacity building in trade and investment for creating
domestic demand. Bangladesh needs more aid in
grants to develop human resources and improve
educational standards.
GED
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Macroeconomic Framework During
NSAPR II Period
2007-08
Actual
2008-09
Provisional
/ Actual
2009-10
Projected
2010-11
Projected
2011-12
Projected
Real GDP Growth (%)
6.2
5.9
6.0
6.7
7.2
CPI Inflation
9.9
6.7
6.5
6.1
6.0
Gross Domestic Savings
(% of GDP)
20.3
20.0
20.5
20.9
21.3
Gross Domestic Investment
(% of GDP)
24.2
24.2
24.6
26.1
27.4
Total Revenue (% of GDP)
10.8
10.4
11.4
11.9
12.2
Total Expenditure (% of GDP)
15.9
13.8
16.5
16.9
17.0
Domestic Borrowing (% of GDP)
3.5
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.6
External Borrowing (% of GDP)
1.6
0.6
2.4
2.3
2.2
Total Borrowing (% of GDP)
5.1
3.4
5.1
5.0
4.8
GED
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Indicative Costs of Achieving Goals and
Targets set out in NSAPR II (Revised)
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At the macro level, expenditure projection from the
medium term budgetary framework was taken into
consideration. At the micro level, the cost of implementing
the activities was taken into consideration;
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These costs are indicative and were identified in
consultation with the relevant stakeholders in the
ministries/agencies;
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Effort was also made not to overestimate implementation
needs.
GED
Indicative Cost of NSAPR II
by Thematic
Areas
Thematic Area (Strategic Blocks &
Supporting strategies)
Cost in billion Tk. at
FY 2008 prices
% of Total
Cost
1. Macroeconomic Environment for Pro-poor
Economic Growth
31.43
1.12
2. Resource Mobilization
29.75
1.06
180.00
6.39
4. Water Resources Development and
Management
42.49
1.51
5. SMEs Development
14.04
0.50
6. Promoting Decent Employment
38.10
1.35
7. Private Sector Development
54.76
1.95
3.78
0.13
80.81
2.87
536.66
19.07
3. Agricultural Growth towards Poverty
Reduction
8. Land Use Policy and Management
9. Housing Development
10. Infrastructure development including
power, energy & Communications
(2)
GED
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Indicative Cost of NSAPR II (contd.)
11. Social Protection (SSNPs, FS, DM, MicroCredit and RNFA)
(3)
319.39
11.35
12. Education, Training & Research
582.30
20.69
13. Health, Nutrition and Family Planning
207.94
7.39
14. Social Inclusion and Empowerment
(Women’s and Children’s advancement,
Indigenous people, People with disability,
disadvantaged and Extreme poor groups)
48.66
1.73
15. Promoting Good Governance & Public
Services
(4)
300.95
10.69
16. Utility Services Delivery including water,
sanitation & urban services
168.00
5.97
17. Caring for Environment and tackling
Climate Change
125.03
4.44
50.72
1.80
2814.81
100.00
(1)
18. Technology Policy including ICT and Biotechnology
Total
GED
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Indicative Costs of NSAPR II: Resource Gap
Costs for NSAPR II Period
Total (FY09-FY11)
in FY08 Prices
A. Resource needs for NSAPR II (billion Tk)
B. Non Discretionary Expenditure (billion Tk)
2814.81
642.59
B1: Interest Payment
425.59
B2: Defence Expenditure
217.00
C. Total expenditure needs (A+B)
3457.40
D. Total Domestic resources available (billion Tk)
2582.56
D1: Total Revenue
2077.94
D2: Domestic borrowing
504.62
E. Domestic Resource Gap (C-D) (billion Tk)
F. Domestic Resource Gap in billion USD
GED GED
874.84
12.50
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Meeting Resource Gap
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Resource requirement (US$ 4. 166 billion/year)
exceeds the usual level of foreign assistance (US$
2.00–2.5 billion) that we receive from our
Development Partners;
Government will continue its efforts to increase taxGDP ratio by expanding the tax net;
The revenue administration system would be
overhauled, restructured and broadened to raise
revenue flow;
Development Partners of Bangladesh should increase
their development assistance to met the projected
resource gap in order to meet her development
challenge.
Financial Sector Reform will continue and enabling
environment will be created to encourage PPP and
FDI.
GED
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Monitoring NSAPR II Activities and
Implementation
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Policy Matrices are developed for all the 18 thematic
areas so that concerned Ministries can develop Action
Plans for their implementation;
A list of Indicators for all the 18 thematic areas are
also developed for implementation monitoring and
evaluation.
Capacity building will be necessary in all institutions
involved in the implementation monitoring and
evaluation task and for this:
– Capacity of BBS to generate data will be strengthened
– Planning Wings/Units in all the Ministries/Divisions/
Agencies will be strengthened;
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Capacity of
strengthened
monitoring.
GED/Planning Commission will be
for NSAPR II implementation and
GED
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Thanks