29 December 2015 DRAFT Operational Intelligence Preparation of the Environment (OIPE) Briefing Isla del Sol 2-10 April 2015 UNCLASSIFIED 1 Agenda 1. What is OIPE? 2. OIPE for the Isla del Sol: A. Geography; B. Weather, Threats and Hazards; C. Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical and Time (PMESII-PT); D. Actor and Stakeholder Analysis; E. Troop Contributing Country Military Resources; F. Humanitarian Situation. UNCLASSIFIED 2 What is OIPE? • OIPE: A continuous activity that assists Commander’s Appreciation Process during all phases of planning and execution of multinational operations. • OIPE provides foundation for Commander’s Situational Assessment • A key CTF planning principle is: “Before any problem solutions can be identified the problem must first be clearly understood. – Understanding the problem(s) preventing attainment of the assigned military end states is essential for the CCTF to accurately understand the situation. • OIPE is a modification of the Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (JIPOE) which includes: – Baseline analysis of the traditional intelligence concerns of enemy, weather, terrain; – Added considerations that political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information dynamics have on the operational environment. UNCLASSIFIED 3 • This briefing will provide an overview of the OIPE for this workshop. • A complete OIPE study is located in digital form on each laptop in your planning groups. UNCLASSIFIED 4 Isla del Sol 2° S 4° S 6° S 8° S 168° E 170° E 172° E UNCLASSIFIED 5 IDS within the Region UNCLASSIFIED 6 IDS within the Region UNCLASSIFIED 7 IDS Geography & Demographics • Island nation running northwest to southeast. • Mountain spine runs entire length of island; • Sea level to 1,500 m mountain peaks; • Land area: • ~ 140,000 km2 (~ 54,054 sq mi) • Slightly smaller than Nepal and Tajikistan. • Population: 320,000 (2011 census) • 54% urban & small towns (over 5,000 persons); • Largest town: Ensenada at 63,192. • 46% small towns and rural. UNCLASSIFIED 8 IDS Weather, Threats and Hazards • Weather – Semi-arid to desert. – Mostly desert (≤ 30 cm of rainfall). – Semi-arid in southeast plain. • Temperatures – Average 20° to 31° C (68°to 88° F). – Cooler in higher elevations. – Little seasonal variation. • Hazards – Cyclones from January to April. – Flash flooding and landslides. – Tsunami exposure in lowlying areas. UNCLASSIFIED 9 IDS PMESII-PT Political: Parliamentary republic. • Capital: Santa Rosalia • 3 administrative districts • Executive Branch Prime Minister Carlos Manuel de Céspedes del Castillo 12 Cabinet Ministers • Legislative Branch Unicameral parliament – National Constituent Assembly 120 Assemblymen 4-year terms. • Judiciary: Highest court: Tribunal Supremo Provincial courts: Audiencia Provincial Municipal courts: Tribunal Municipal Isla del Sol gained independence from former colonial ruler Iberia 24 March 2014 through a UN-brokered referendum. UNCLASSIFIED 10 IDS PMESII-PT Military • Military: None • Security Forces: – Gendarmerie Guardia Civil Island-wide jurisdiction Divided into 3 Legions 1,500 Officers and enlisted personnel Guardia Municipal Metropolitan police for Ensenada and Santa Rosalia 210 police officers – Coast Guard Servicio Guardacostas 130 Officers and enlisted personnel 6 Zhuk-class patrol boats 2 Fokker F-27 maritime surveillance aircraft. UNCLASSIFIED 11 IDS PMESII-PT Economic: • Underdeveloped agriculture and fishing economy: 33% ranching / herding / subsistence agriculture; 24% fishing; 19% commerce; 13% services. • Potential for economic growth with foreign investment in oil exploration and palm oil farming. • Inequitable distribution of income and wealth. • Annual gross national product: US$ 400 million. • Annual per capita income: US$1,250. UNCLASSIFIED 12 IDS PMESII-PT Social: • Population: 320,00 (2011 census) • Age structure: • 0-14 yrs. 35.3% • 15-24 yrs. 21% • 25-64 yrs. 40.1% • 65+ yrs. 3.6% • Ethnic identity: • Mestizo 29% • Mohanjerani 25% • Lahui Kanaka 24% • Mixed 21% • Other < 1% • Religious affiliation: • Christianity (Roman Catholic) • Islam • Lahui Kanaka • Other • Language (primary): • Spanish* • Western Arabic • Lahui Kanaka 43% 41% 15% < 1% 37% 32% 31% * Spanish is the official language and lingua franca of commerce. Most Isla del Sol citizens speak conversational Spanish. UNCLASSIFIED 13 IDS PMESII-PT Information • Literacy rate: ~ 50%; • 65% of population with < 5 years of formal education. • Television: • 1 state-owned station with national coverage; • Multi-channel pay TV available. • Radio: • 2 state-owned radio stations; • 2 privately owned radio stations; • Multiple international broadcasters available. • Telephones: • Main lines in use: 25,400 • Mobile phones in use: 164,200 • Internet: 36,000 internet users. • Newspapers: 2 large-circulation newspapers UNCLASSIFIED 14 IDS PMESII-PT UNCLASSIFIED 15 IDS PMESII-PT Physical Time • Generally poor infrastructure, • +11 hrs. from UTC especially in rural areas. (Same as New Caledonia) • Distances from Santa Rosalia to (in km): Australia, Sydney 3,699.9 Fiji, Suva 1,462.7 Japan, Tokyo 5,778.6 Malaysia, KL 7865.1 New Caledonia, Noumea 2,896.1 New Zealand, Auckland 3,369.5 Solomon Islands, Honiara 1,369.4 Thailand, Bangkok 8,193.3 Tuvalu, Funafuti 828.9 USA, Honolulu, HI 4,527.5 UNCLASSIFIED 16 Major Actors in IDS • Government of Isla del Sol: –Guardia Civil; –Guardia Municipal; –Servicio de Guardacostas. • Armed Terrorist / Insurgent Groups: –Sons of Isla del Sol (SIS); –Kamali’I ka Me’e Lahui Kanaka (“Children of Lahui Kanaka Heros” – KMLK); –International Peoples’ Movement (IPM). • Organized Crime Families: –Mohajerani Criminal Gangs (MCG); –Lahui Kanaka Criminal Gangs (LKCG). UNCLASSIFIED 17 Major Actors in IDS Gendarmerie and Servicio de Guardacostas Legion 3 Guardia Municipal Guardia Civil (by Legion) Servicio de Guardacostas UNCLASSIFIED 18 Major Actors in IDS SIS Area of Influence and Piracy Operations Ensenada SIS Area of Influence SIS Piracy Operations San Felipe Servicio de Guardacostas bases Santa Rosalia UNCLASSIFIED Major Actors in IDS (cont.) • IDS displaced persons: • All IDPs 100,000+ • IDPs in San Felipe camps ~90,000 • United Nations Support Mission in Isla del Sol (UNSMI) • Humanitarian and Development communities: • UN humanitarian agencies, funds & programmes; • International organizations; • Red Cross societies; • Non-Governmental Organizations: “IDS CAA”. • Foreign Workers: – Major employers: Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS) Shell Oil Company (USA) Sime Darby Berhad – Largest number of foreign workers Malaysia 9,500 USA 1,250 UNCLASSIFIED 20 Major Actors in IDS UNSMI and IDP Camp Locations HQ Santa Rosalia FO Ensenada FO San Felipe San Felipe IDP camps Field Offices: • Ensenada • Guerro Negro FO Santa Catarina • Loreto • San Felipe • Santa Catarina FO Guerro Negro HQ Santa Rosalia FO Loreto • San Felipe IDP camps X3 UNCLASSIFIED 21 Major Actors in IDS Locations of Foreign Economic Interests PETRONAS / Shell Oil Sites Ensenada Sime Darby palm oil plantations 1 San Felipe Airports 1 Seaports 1 Bahia Tortugas Highway 1 1 San Ignacio Santa Rosalia 1 UNCLASSIFIED 22 Major Actors in IDS Locations of Foreign Economic Interests & SIS Areas of Influence and Piracy Operations Airports Ensenada Seaports 1 1 San Felipe Highway 1 PETRONAS / Shell Oil Sites 1 Sime Darby palm oil plantations Bahia Tortugas SIS Area of Influence 1 San Ignacio Santa Rosalia SIS Piracy Operations 1 UNCLASSIFIED 23 Isla del Sol Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation • Mission: Evacuation of 1,916 foreign civilians from Isla del Sol. • French-led Non-combatant Evacuation Operation in IDS, mixed nations, mixed services. • NEO Forces for planning: MPAT Nations, mixed services • NEO Forces Staging Area: Nouméa, New Caledonia –French government offers Nouméa as staging and destination point. • IDS government consents to operation; anticipate SIS attempts to disrupt operation and / or target evacuees. • Evacuees: Foreign non-essential diplomatic personnel and families, foreign aid workers and foreign workers. UNCLASSIFIED 24 Isla del Sol Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation (cont.) • Concentrations of evacuees: –Northern District: Ensenada, San Felipe, Northern GOPLATs –Central District: Santa Catarina, Guerro Negro, El Barril –Southern District: Bahia Tortugas, San Ignacio, Santa Rosalia, Southern GOPLATs, Loreto. • Destinations: Directly to home country or to Nouméa, New Caledonia, for commercial transport home. • Violence in Northern District, instability in Central and Southern Districts, piracy offshore. • Execute mission NLT 1 May 2015 UNCLASSIFIED 25 Isla del Sol Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation Airports Ensenada Seaports Highway 1 1 1 PETRONAS / Shell Oil Sites San Felipe Sime Darby palm oil plantations 1 Bahia Tortugas UN & Humanitarian Operations 1 San Ignacio Santa Rosalia 1 Santa Rosalia Diplomatic missions SIS Area of Influence & UNCLASSIFIED Piracy 26 Assets Available for Planning Non-combatant Evacuation Operation • Assets Available for Planning • TBD • TBD • TBD UNCLASSIFIED 27 Isla del Sol Stability Operation • Mission: In support of Govt. of IDS, assist in providing security, countering terrorism and protection of civilians. – At request of Govt. of IDS and in accordance with UNSCR 2275 and 2282 (2015). – Area to be secured: Isla del Sol. • French-led stability operation in IDS, mixed nations, mixed services. • Stability Operations Forces for planning: MPAT Nations, mixed services. • Stability Operations Forces staging area: Nouméa, New Caledonia. – French government offers Nouméa as planning and staging area. – Participating nations to transport troops to staging area. • Anticipate SIS and MCG opposition. • Execute mission NLT 11 May 2015 – Handover to IDS Security Forces by 11 July 2015, full transition of operations by 21 August 2015. • Requests for Forces allowed once approved by MPAT Secretariat. UNCLASSIFIED 28 Locations of Security Incidents As of 31 March 2015 SIS Area of Influence Ensenada SIS Piracy Operations 1 Airports San Felipe Seaports 1 1 Bahia Tortugas Highway 1 PETRONAS / Shell Oil Sites 1 San Ignacio Santa Rosalia Sime Darby palm oil plantations 1 UNCLASSIFIED 29 Assets Available for Planning Stability Operation • Assets Available for Planning • TBD • TBD • TBD UNCLASSIFIED 30 Isla del Sol Maritime Security Operation • Mission: In support of Govt. of IDS, assist in countering acts of piracy, providing security and protection of civilians in waters off IDS. – At request of Govt. of IDS and in accordance with UNSCR 2275 and 2282 (2015). – Area to be secured: Waters surrounding Isla del Sol. • French-led Maritime Security operation, mixed nations, mixed services. • Maritime Security Forces for planning: MPAT Nations, mixed services. • Maritime Security Forces staging area: Nouméa, New Caledonia. – French government offers Nouméa as planning and staging area. – Participating nations to transport assets to staging area. • Anticipate SIS and MCG opposition. • Execute mission NLT 16 May 2015 – Handover to IDS Servicio de Guardacostas by 16 July 2015, full transition of operations by 21 August 2015. • Requests for Forces allowed once approved by MPAT Secretariat. UNCLASSIFIED 31 Locations of Security Incidents – As of 31 March 2015 SIS Area of Influence Ensenada SIS Piracy Operations 1 Airports San Felipe Seaports 1 Servicio de Guardcostas bases Bahia Tortugas 1 San Ignacio Santa Rosalia PETRONAS / Shell Oil Sites 1 UNCLASSIFIED 32 Assets Available for Planning Maritime Security Operation • Assets Available for Planning • TBD • TBD • TBD UNCLASSIFIED 33 IDS OIPE Brief – Questions? UNCLASSIFIED 34