Realism and Foreign Policy
January 9, 2014
Overview
 What is realism?
 The development of realist theories
 Realist analysis of foreign policy
 Using Realism in analysing foreign policy
 Academic vs Foreign Policy Analysis
(Hedgehogs and Foxes)
What is realism?
Realism is based on 3 assumptions about
how the world works:
 Groupism
 Egoism
 Power-centrism
So translating that into more familiar
concepts:
Groupism => states
Egoism => self-interest
Power-centrism => power
Implications for Foreign Policy
These assumptions about the world have
important consequences for international
politics which leads to an identifiably
realist approach to foreign policy
Realist foreign policy
 An orientation towards the most powerful
groups at any given time
 Scepticism towards the professed aims of
foreign policy other than the state interest
 Tendency to question the ability of any state’s
foreign policy to transcend power politics
 Tendency to look beyond rhetoric to the
power realities that realists expect nearly
always underlie policy
 Look for where the power is, what the group
interests are, and to the role that power plays
in reconciling interests
The development of realist theories
 The first and most general of all realist
theories, and the one from which most others
proceed, can be stated simply: if human
affairs are indeed characterized by groupism,
egoism, and power-centrism, then politics is
likely to be conflictual unless there is some
central authority to enforce order.
 When no authority exists that can enforce
agreements, a condition theorists call
anarchy, then any state can resort to force to
get what it wants.
Realism’s sub-schools
As an academic theory, realism informs the analysis of
foreign policy. Theoretical sub-schools within realism:
 classical realism
 neorealism
 defensive realism
 offensive realism
 neoclassical realism
Implications
 So what would the
implications be from
taking each of these
perspectives in
foreign policy
analysis?
 How might the
various sub-schools
change our analysis?
Sub-schools
 Classical realism
 Neorealism
 Defensive realism
 Offensive realism
 Neoclassical realism
Specific theories within realism
 Balance of power theory
 Balance of threat theory
 Hegemonic stability theory
 Power transition theory
Assumptions, conditions and theories
The challenge for foreign policy analyst: how do
we know which of these sub-schools or
particular theories applies to a specific foreign
policy issue?
Morality and power
 Standards of right and wrong tend to be
defined by the powerful in ways that further
their narrow group interest (E.H. Carr)
 US in Serbia (Kosovo)
 Russia in Georgia (South Ossetia and
Abkhazia)
Both US and Russian diplomats use same
arguments justifying their own actions.
Using Realism in Analysing Foreign
Policy
 Examples that clarify the potential pitfalls of
realism as a guide to foreign policy:
 The Never-Ending Cold War
 Major power war in 1990s Europe
 Anti-US counterbalancing in the 1990s
Avoiding Pitfalls
Avoiding inaccurate foreign policy analyses:
Know the theories and the case
 Need careful thought about how the theories
relate to realism’s core assumption and
expected outcomes – i.e. need to know the
theory
 Need to know the specifics of the foreign
policy case at hand
Hedgehogs and Foxes
‘The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog
knows one big thing.’ (Archilochus)
Academic realists can fall into trap of treating
their theories as universal
 Academic theorists tend to be hedgehogs
Idea that for good foreign policy analysis
need to be able to understand an issue
from many angles as possible
Foxes are better at practical tasks like
foreign policy analysis. They should know
theories without becoming overly
committed to any one