US Hegemony and Military Primacy Andres Gannon, UC Berkeley Definition • Hegemony is a condition of dominance in the international system • Hegemony is not a strategy, it is a goal or the result of other strategies Hegemony in international relations • Goal of the United States and all other powers is hegemony • Regional hegemons have always existed • Arguable about whether or not there has ever been a global hegemony How does America do it? • Example of US Hegemony Economic Power • The productive capacity of a state or territory that it rules over • What can a state make? • How efficiently can it do it? Financial Power • Distinct from economic power because it is about how much money a government can raise and how it manages its funds • US has had strong financial and economic power since 1919 due to victory in both world wars • The US was able to make a lot of equipment and lend huge amounts of money to our allies Soft Power • • • • The cultural appeal of a country Intangible reputation How attractive values are to others Respect for their way of life Military Power • The ability to impose your will onto others • It allows us to quickly defeat adversaries Relationship between determinants Economic Power Military Power Financial Power Soft Power Relationship between determinants • No one factor can maintain hegemony • Soviet Union 1980 U.S. National Security Strategy Grand Strategy Military Strategy Military Operations Tactics Doctrine Grand Strategy Military Strategy Grand Strategy Military Operations Tactics Doctrine • Plan to direct all assets at the disposal of our government towards the broadest ends of American interest ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ Homeland security International peace Prevention of global wars Democracy Economic prosperity Human rights Grand Strategy Military Strategy Military Strategy Military Operations Tactics Doctrine • Military portion of grand strategy • Where are our military assets deployed Grand Strategy Military Strategy Operations Military Operations Tactics Doctrine • Only relevant in war-time • Describes how we fight a series of battles (a campaign) to fulfill the plans laid down • Goal of operations is to fulfill strategic goals and military strategy Grand Strategy Military Strategy Tactical Military Operations Tactics Doctrine • Methods that units use to achieve specific battle field tasks ▫ Pinning an enemy by flanking them on both sides ▫ Guerilla warfare tactic ▫ Capturing strategic terrain (hill) Grand Strategy Military Strategy Doctrine Military Operations Tactics Doctrine • Rules we create to govern the use of force and methods we use to fight ▫ Counterinsurgency ▫ Counterterrorism • The way we implement a doctrine in a specific country is a strategy World War II Example Grand Strategy – Unconditionally defeat the Axis of Evil Military Strategy – In Pacific Ocean, use US power to crush Japan’s main fleet and close in until they were forced to submit Military Operations – Assault the islands one by one Tactical – launching shells from battle ships with a low level trajectory, destroy Japanese guns and flamethrowers Doctrine – use firepower to crush Japanese defenses and then use a frontal assault on the beaches (amphibious assault) Military strategy on the topic • Most affirmatives occur at the level of military strategy • How are goals accomplished with the military in general • Withdrawing all forces from one country changes military strategy Synonyms • • • • • • • • • Hegemony Primacy Leadership Global cop Pax Americana Unipolarity Unilateralism Military dominance Global superiority Key Authors • • • • • • • • • • Khalilzad, Stillgood Robert Kagan Lieber and Press Charles Krauthammer Thayer Brooks and Wohlforth Joseph Nye Colin Gray Mandelbaum Max Boot Key Sources • Carnegie Endowment • Council on Foreign Relations • Heritage Foundation Polarity • Unipolarity – only one great power exists • Bipolarity – two powerful states that dominate all the others • Multipolarity – many states of equivalent power “-lateralism” • Unilateralism – acting alone without making policies dependent on what allies think • Multilateralism – acting with others and engaging in cooperation and consultation • Bilateralism – acting or cooperating with another power, often of equal power Balancing • Offshore Balancing – Withdrawing our foreign commitments and maintaining our military and international presence from the mainland • Counterbalancing – When countries line up against the United States so that their combined power matched or exceeds that of the hegemon • Softbalancing – diplomatic friction against a hegemon when countries are hesitant to cooperate or support hegemonic military action Key Factors • Economics ▫ Forward deployment, army, navy, tech, free riders • Counter-balancing ▫ Adversaries who don’t like taking orders • Decadence ▫ Spirit of sacrifice causes power ▫ 22,000 Central Pacific v 4,000 Iraq ▫ 100,000 British Key Factors • Overstretch ▫ Forces get spread thin • Relative Decline ▫ Rise of other challengers causes multipolarity ▫ Relative power • History ▫ Rome, Sparta, Athens, Persia, Greece, Aztecs, Mayans, Chinese, Mongols, Spanish…US? The Case for Sustainability • American exceptionalism ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ Democratic Western hemisphere No counterbalancing No direct colonization Geography • Relative dominance ▫ Spend more on defense than next 10-25 countries ▫ Economy is third globally ▫ Fight 3 wars at a time The Case for Sustainability • Absence of peer competitors ▫ China can’t win wars ▫ Russia is poor and can’t win wars either ▫ Europe is internally divided and lazy • Better than alternatives ▫ China is hated ▫ Russia is crazy Why Sustainability Matters • If decline can be avoided (if hegemony is sustainable) then it is easier to win that it is desirable • If decline is inevitable, strategies to maintain it may be bad and we should shift now to ensure a stable and peaceful transition Great Power Wars • Smaller powers have an incentive to cooperate with a greater power because the US can punish them military • Multipolar systems are problematic because the margins of power between actors is low • Europe 1914 Rise of Hostile Competitors • Strong US can deter others from even trying to upset the international system Regional Wars • US can intervene in wars between weaker states ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ Bosnia, 1994 Kosovo, 1998 Gulf War, 1991 North Korea, TBA India-Pakistan, TBA China-Taiwan, TBA Israel-Iran, TBA Cooperation • Bandwagoning – when smaller states follow the lead of a hegemon and support them rather than counterbalancing • Encourages cooperation on economic, environmental, and health issues Transition Wars • Regardless of whether hegemony is good or bad, decline should be avoided because the transition to a new system will be violent • Rising powers would lash out to undermine US standing • US would lash out to prevent a rising power from overwhelming us Power Vacuum • No one else can fill in causing global fragmentation (Dark Ages) • Partial fill in causes spheres of influence ▫ China dominates East Asia ▫ Russia reabsorbs former Soviet states Multipolarity Solves • More stable, aggressive posture encourages hostility when power erodes • Spheres of influence good Terrorism • Causes resentment in the Middle East ▫ Occupation ▫ Hostility Proliferation • Causes asymetrical strategies to compete with us since they can’t compete conventionally • Nuclear weapons pack a hard punch Counter-balancing • Others band together against the US which can escalate regional wars and disputes ▫ Russia-China Intervention • Hegemony makes us more likely to intervene in conflicts where we don’t belong ▫ Vietnam ▫ Iraq Key Arguments • • • • • • Sustainability Resentment inevitable Reintervention Transition Fill in Balancing