Decision and experience:why don't
we choose what makes us happy
Author : Christopher K. Hsee and Reid Hastie
Source : Trends in Cognitive Sciences
Volume 10, Issue 1, January 2006, Pages 31-37
指導教授：戴敏育老師
報告者:淡江大學資訊管理系碩士班
吳至偉 698630497
日期：2011/10/21
outline
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
Introduction
Failures to predict future experience
accurately
Failures to follow predictions
Summary
Introduction

Fundamental assumption of classic economic
theory



People are able to identify and choose what is best
for them
Are people really able to choose what is best for
them?
Recent findings from behavioral-decision
research

People are not always able to choose what yields the
greatest happiness or best experience
Failures to predict future experience
accurately

Behavioral-decision researchers have identified
several systematic biases
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Impact bias
Projection bias
Distinction bias
Memory bias
Belief bias
Impact bias

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People often overestimate the impact of an
affective event
One cause of this impact bias is focalism


predictors pay too much attention to the central
event and overlook context events
Another cause of impact bias is immune
neglect

after an emotion-evoking event happens, people
tend to rationalize or make sense of it
Projection bias

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
People making predictions and people
experiencing are often in different arousal
states
Projection bias occurs not only when
experiencers are others
Projection bias can lead to choices that one will
regret
Distinction bias

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Distinction bias occurs because predictors and
experiencers are in different evaluation
modes(single or joint-evaluation)
Distinction bias can also lead to non-optimal
choices
Memory bias

Predictions of future experiences are often
based on memories of related past
experiences


memory is fallible and introduces systematic
biases into evaluations
A classic experiment by Kahneman and coauthors
Belief bias


A guide of hedonic forecasts is people’s lay
theories of what makes them happy or
unhappy
One common belief is more choice options are
always better
Failures to follow predictions
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Decision- makers need to act on their
predictions
Decision- makers variously choose the option
that has these characters
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Impulsivity
rule-based choice
lay rationalism
medium maximization
Impulsivity
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A major cause of sub-optimal decisions is
impulsivity
The choice of an immediately gratifying option
at the cost of long-term happiness

overeating, avoiding medical exams, taking drugs,
and squandering savings
Rule-based decisions

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Decision-makers sometimes base their choices
on rules for good behavior rather than
predicted experience
Some examples of decision rules

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seek variety
don’t waste
Lay rationalism

Decision-makers strive to be rational

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the desire for rationality can lead to less rational
decisions
Three specific manifestations of lay rationalism

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lay economism
lay scientism
lay functionalism
Medium maximization
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Often when people exert effort to obtain a
desired outcome, the immediate reward they
receive is not the outcome itself, but a
medium
people work harder and harder to accumulate
more and more wealth, but are not in fact
happier
Summary
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
For decades, behavioral-decision
researchers have studied inconsistencies in
choices, demonstrating
In recent years, decision researchers have
studied directly when decisions are suboptimal

two general reasons for the failure


prediction biases
failures to follow predictions
Summary


Many social policies(free choice of health
providers, retirement plans)are built upon
the assumptions that people know their own
preferences and that what people choose
must be in their best interests
The behavioral-decision-research findings we
have reviewed here cast doubt on these
assumptions
Decision and experience:why don't
we choose what makes us happy
報告者:淡江大學資訊管理系碩士班
吳至偉 698630497
Q&A