Fast-Forward to 2025: New Mega Trends Transforming
the World as We Know It
Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Design, Businesses and Our Personal
Lives
Agenda
1. Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends
2. Key Insights into the Global Mega Trends
3. Conclusions
4. The Macro to Micro Approach
2
What is a Mega Trend?
Top Mega Trends Covered By The Visionary Innovation
Research Division
What is a Mega Trend?
Mega trends are
transformative, global
forces that define the
future world with their far
reaching impact on
business, societies,
economies, cultures and
personal lives.
Urbanization
– City as a
Customer
Bricks and
Clicks
Future
Infrastructure
Development
Smart is the
New Green
Innovating to
Zero
Health,
Wellness and
Well Being
Social Trends
New Business
Models: Value
for Many
Future of
Mobility
Connectivity
and
Convergence
Beyond BRIC:
The Next
Game
Changers
Future
of
Energy
3
News Headlines in 2025
Robots have entered our
homes for personal use.
Sensory devices guide our
everyday lives.
Mobile financial transactions
are now in crypto-currencies.
There are 6 million
autonomous cars in Europe
and North America.
Big data has entered the
Zettabyte era.
3D printing is commonplace.
4D printing is gaining
mainstream acceptance .
High Speed Rail line to
connect from London to
Beijing work begins
Summer Sale: Low-cost
holidays in space.
4
Connectivity &
Convergence
80 Billion Connected Devices
Globally By 2020
10 Connected Devices for
Every Household by 2020
5 connected devices for every
user by 2020
5 billion internet users by
2020
500 devices with unique
digital IDs (Internet of things)
per square kilometre by 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
6
Sub Trend: Future Connected Living Ecosystem
Connected life contains three important aspects of connected home, connected city,
and connected work
Connected Living Total Market: $730 Billion in 2020
Connected Home – 31%
Connected Work –15%
• Mobility - Mobile
Connected City – 54%
• eGovernance
• Home Automation
email, Unified
• eCitizens
• Home Energy
Communication
• Personal and Freight
• Home Health
• Mobile Working
Mobility
• Home Entertainment
• Enterprise Social
• E-learning
Networking
• Mobile banking
Source: Frost & Sullivan
7
Case Study: Connected Home’s B2B Platform Of Deutsche Telekom
QIVICON B2B Business Hub including partners
from…
Automation
(E.g Belkin)
B2B
B2B2C
Security
(E.g Pax)
Appliances,
electronics (A&E)
Miele, Samsung
Health
(E.g
Tunstall)
Multimedia
(E.g
Samsung)
Energy
EnBW, Solon
QIVICON CONNECTED HOME PLATFORM for
consumers aggregating service from all partners.
Consumer Homes
8
Augmented Reality
Augmented Reality (AR) is defined as a real-time augmented view of the environment through digital data
through use of text, sound, graphics, video, and navigation systems that increases user’s interactivity with the
local environment . This extends business and mobility options, social interactions and experiences which has
implications on personal lives, businesses and even day-to-day activities.
Reality
Augmented Reality
Augmented Virtuality
Virtual World
9
Augmented Reality Impacting Different Personal Experiences
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
10
Implication: Connectivity Is Pushing Convergence
Connectivity will Accelerate Convergence of Industries, Products, Technologies and
Competition
Space Industry
1
2
3
Solar Industry
Space Based Solar
Power
INDUSTRIES
Car
Unmanned Technology
Autonomous Cars
Building Technologies
Smart Automation
Smart Home Hubs
PRODUCTS
TECHNOLOGIES
Image Source:: `Creative Commons and Dreamstime.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
11
Impact of Connectivity and Convergence - “Virtual Design &
Development Nirvana”
Shorter Design and Product Development Cycles Examples in Healthcare and
Auto Industry
Digital Automotive Factory
(VW Example)
Bio Simulation in Healthcare
Can Save $200 to 300 million in
drug development
12
Bricks and Clicks
13
Future of Clicks in Retail Industry
Global Online Retail Sales To Reach $4.3 Trillion By 2025 Accounting
for 19% of Total Retail
United Kingdom
$0.21
Trillion
26%
$23
Trillion
China
$1.30
Trillion
18%
$11.8
Trillion
15%
24%
95%
5%
$11.25
Trillion
10%
Germany
$0.09
Trillion
$18.7
Trillion
81%
$4.3
Trillion
19%
Japan
$0.17
Trillion
United States
$1.32
Trillion
$0.55
Trillion
2011
Online Sales
Non-Online Sales
2025
14
Bricks and Clicks: Impact of Bricks and Clicks on Store Formats
Retail Formats Are Becoming Smaller and Unique With More Emphasis Being Placed on the
Concept and Urban Location of the Store
Evolution of Retail Formats, Global, 1970–2012
Era of Expansion
Era of Contraction
140000
Hypermarkets
Average Store Size (Sqft)
120000
Club
Warehouses
100000
Supermarkets
80000
60000
Convenience
Stores
Concept Stores
40000
20000
Grocery
Stores
Express Stores
0
Pre-1970s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000
2010
2012
2013
Source: RetailNet and Frost & Sullivan Analysis.
15
Urbanization Will Compel Retailers to Shrink Store Sizes
Retailer Store Size to be 15-20% Less than the Current Average Store
Size by 2020
Big-Box
Small-Box
15%-20%
smaller
Examples of New Small Format Stores
Tesco Express
eBay Pop Up
Store
John Lewis
Small Stores
16
Connectivity in Retail: Emerging Technologies
Technology Converting Buyers into Multi-Channel Shoppers
Augmented Reality
Wal-Mart
Location-based services
Foursquare
Holography
Diesel
Body Scanners
Selfridges
QR Coding
Home Depot
Motion Sensing
Tesco Store Trek
17
Case Study: Audi City London - First Digital Car Showroom
Example of Future Digital Car Showrooms that will be “Unlimited”, Personalised, Socially Connected
and Digitally Integrated
Fully Digital,
Retail-Style Cyberstore
One-stop Experience
for Entire Model Range
Highly personalized
customer dialogue
Gamification, Augmented
Reality Offers Tailormade services
Specially Trained Dealer
Personnel Interactivity
London Flagship Store
18
Smart is the New
Green
20
Mega Trend :
Urbanisation - “City
as a Customer”
21
Mega Cities
Mega
Regions
Mega
Corridor
Smart and
Sustainable
Cities
22
Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive
Wealth Creation In the Future
Cities like Seoul account for 50% of the
South Korea’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary)
and Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly
45%.
Top 4 Metropolitan Cities (Rhine-Rur (15%
GDP), Munich, Frankfurt, Berlin) to account
for 57% of Germany’s GDP by 2025
What are the Micro Implications?
High Economic Power
Hub and Spoke Business Model
Transit oriented development
New Mobility Solutions
City as a Customer
23
Case Study : How Siemens Aligns Itself to Mega Trends
Source : Siemens AG. All rights reserved
24
Case Study : City as A Customer – What does it mean to Car
Industry?
New mobility business
models like car sharing
Connected Driving e.g.
V2V and V2I
Cars designed around
Cities and not cities
designed around cars
New urban vehicle
technologies like Traffic
Jam Assist, Valet
Parking
Digital Retail Stores
City Taxis
(perhaps Autonomous
in future)
25
Social Trends
27
Women Empowerment
Demographic shifts are driving the empowerment of women
1
Leadership
2
There are 117 female
directors of FTSE 100
companies
4
Wealth
By 2020 over half of
millionaires in the UK will
be female
Earnings
3
Female junior exec pay in
the UK is rising faster than
male counterparts’
5
Entrepreneurship
The number of womenowned businesses
increased by 59% in the US
since 2000
Education
Women are getting the
majority of higher
education awards
6
Power
In Nordic countries
women could soon have
equal political power
Women Dominate Social Media
Women are the routers and amplifiers of the social web
So What?
Women in the UK are said to control
online purchasing (60%) and
mobile purchasing (one in six
women compared to one in nine
men)
845m active users
57% Female
127m active users
50%
Female
Women are said to be more
likely than men to interact with
and about brands online
150m active users
68%
Female
90m active visitors
82% Female
Women are said to control
between 80% and 90% of key
spending categories worldwide
Case Study : Women Drivers
Certain societies are leading in the closing of gender parity
Personalised Vehicles
 In the US from
2012 there were
more women
drivers than men
•Driving dynamics
personalisation
•Mood lighting
High Quality Materials
 In the UK women
licence holders are
rising (whilst men
are declining) and
women are also
driving more often
and for longer
•Non wearable materials
•Sustainable and natural
fabric
What does it mean
to car companies
Seamless Connectivity
•Touchscreens and gesture
control
•NFC enabled
•Integration with personal
devices
Mega Trend :
Innovating to Zero
31
Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020
Zero Defects
and Zero
Faults
Carbon Neutral
Cities
Zero Waste/
Emissions
Zero Emails
Complete
Recyclability from
Households (Cradle
to Cradle Concept)
Zero
Corporate
Debts
Zero
Emissions
from Cars
Zero
Accidents
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
Carbon Neutral
Factories and
Retail Stores
Zero
Breaches of
Security
Zero Crime
Rates
32
Examples of “Innovating to Zero”
Off-the-Grid Buildings On-site Energy Harvest Use of Intelligent Systems Increase use of renewable energy
Net Zero Hospitals -
Zero faults and zero errors in manufacturing
Highly Strict Quality Control
Cutting Edge IT Infrastructure and Services that convert Ideas to
implementation on real-time
Instant File Sharing Networking Interfaces Zero Management Gaps Zero Processing TimeZero Learning Gaps-
Zero Energy
Building
Zero Defects
Zero Time
Business
Incubation
Carbon Neutral
City
Zero Accidents
Zero DesignTo-Shelf
(Retail)
- Energy efficient buildings
- Greener Transport
- Waste Reduction and
Waste Recycling
- Increase use of Renewable
Energy
- Strong Health and Safety
Measures
- Safety Days (eg. Shell)
- Life-Saving Rules within
facilities
- Active safety systems in
vehicles that over ride
drivers
- In-house design, cutting,
finishing
- Continuous, speedy
deliveries
- Direct point-of-sale data
collection,
- Daily analysis of product
sales and customer
feedback using software
analytics
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
33
Mega Trend :
New Business Models:
Value for Many
34
Personalization &
Customization
Nike and BMW
Personalization and
Customization
Co-Creation
Quirky .com
New Business Models
One-off Experience
(BMW on Demand)
Pay as you go
PAYD and
PAHYD Car
Insurance
35
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
+
Free
Premium
“Value for Many”
=
Freemium
Will Replace
“Value for Money”
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
36
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Case Study: Volkswagen Group To Implement Modular Tool Kit Strategy To
Design and Sell Same Cars in Global Markets With Local Personalisation
MQB - Modular Transverse Matrix (Number one
platform-2020)
Development from platform strategies to modular tool
kits
Source: Volkswagen, Frost & Sullivan analysis
37
Conclusions
Some Key Trends that are Important and Not Discussed
Today
Circular Economy
Health, Wellness, and
Wellbeing
Virtual Currency
Future of Mobility
Deep Sea Mining
3D/4D Printing
Space Jam
Future of Energy (shale
gas)
39
Utilities of The Past
19TH CENTURY
LATE 20TH CENTURY
Electricity
The Internet
18TH CENTURY
20TH CENTURY
Industrial
Revolution
Communication
Industry
21st century
utilities?
40
21st Century Utilities: What is the Future ?
Mobility ?
Big data ?
Healthcare ?
Media ?
41
From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to
Strategy Implementation
Macro
To
Micro
Mega Trend
Analysis of Opportunities and
Unmet Needs
Selected trends that impact your
business and markets
Sub Trend
Impact on Future Product/
Technology
A sub-layer of trends that has a
wide ranging impact
Impact to Your Industry
Visualising the roadmap of these
critical forces through scenariobuilding and macro economic
forecasts
42
Learn More About “New Mega Trends”
Published Book:
New Mega Trends
Implications for our Future Lives
By Sarwant Singh
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=5774
23
Join Our Mega Trend
Group On
Mega Trends: Strategic
Planning and Innovation
Based on Frost & Sullivan
Research
Follow Sarwant’s
series on Mega
Trends on
Forbes.com
http://www.forbes.co
m/sites/sarwantsing
h/
43
Questions and Answers
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