SHOPPING2020
Abraham Lincoln — 'The best way to predict your future is to create it' .
Amstelveen, 4th of March 2014
Source: iStock
© Shopping 2020
Table of Content
What is Shopping2020?
Key Findings
Shopping2020 Action Plan
Participation Possibilities
© Shopping 2020
1
About the Shopping 2020 research program
How do consumers shop in 2020?
Shopping 2020 is a research program launched in 2013 by 16 industry organizations in order to answer
the following question:
“How do consumers shop online in 2020 and which actions need to be undertaken on an
national, sector and company level upon that Dutch B2C selling companies can act on this
successfully, nationally, within Europe and globally.”
The motive for this research program is that the current retail, finance and travel
landscape is changing rapidly and despite the current economic crisis, companies
have to reposition themselves in order to survive beyond 2020:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Changing consumer behavior (from single- to omni-channel);
Disintermediation of the value chain (producers sell direct);
Rise of new media (Google glasses, voice/virtual recognition)
Product digitalization (gaming, 3D printing);
Internationalization and global hyper competition (Amazon, Wallmart);
etcetera…
Many of the developments are universal and reach across multiple
Industries and sectors.
Source: http://www.zazzle.nl/nederland_de_nederlandse_macht_van_het_honkbal
_van_tas-149333394796361450
© Shopping 2020
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Shopping2020 was formally launched on the 13th of June 2013
The end results of the research program are presented mid March 2014
Desk research
(1 mar. – 1 jun.)
Expert Trend Analyse
(13 jun. – 15 dec.)
Wisdom of the Crowds
(15 oct. – 25 nov.)
Action plans
(15 oct. – 15 dec.)
Synthese
(15 dec. – 15 mar.)
Based on the weighted
trends the expert groups
determined the key actions
The synthesis lists the
most important findings
and defines an overall
action program
Macro
Trends
Micro
Trends
Meso
Trends
The research study
and experts were
determined and the
kick off prepared
19 expert groups were
defined to identify and
substantiate key trends
444 experts and 12.000
consumers were interviewed
in two separate studies
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19 expert groups were defined to create a vision on shopping in 2020
In each expert group experts from the scientific, political and business community are participating
Future Trends
Shopper
Behavior
Cross border
(e)Commerce
Technological
Future
Touchpoints
Ecology
Customer Journey
Political & Legal
Key Themes
Orientation
Selection
Shopping2020
Vision
Transaction
Delivery
Action Plan
Shopping2020
Customer Care
Customer
Data Value
Management
Business
Models
Omnichannel
Organization
Security &
Fraud
The New
Shopping Street
Travel
Action plan
Retail
Action plan
Smarter
shopping
Supply Chain
Finance
Action plan
…
Action plan
Online
Entrepreneurship
…
All 19 expert groups created their own report on which basis a synthesis was written.
© Shopping 2020
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The Shopping2020 has been initiated by 16 industry associations
And is supported by experts from the business, science and political community…
Ed Nijpels (chairman)
Bernard Wientjes (VNO-NCW)
Board of
Arie van Bellen (Directeur ECP)
Recommendation
Martijn van Dam (kamerlid PvdA)
Jan Kees de Jager (vml. Min. Fin.)
Cor Molenaar (Erasmus Universiteit)
Kitty Koelemeijer (Universiteit Nyenrode)
Walther Ploos van Amstel (VU)
Erik Fledderus (Directeur TNO)
Heleen van Oord (Directeur DQ&A)
Giovanni Colauto (CEO Bijenkorf)
Harry Bruijniks (CEO Euretco)
Ronald van Zetten (CEO Hema)
Joost Romeijn (CEO Sundio Group)
Paul Nijhof (vml. CEO Wehkamp)
Annemarie van Gaal (CEO van Gaal)
Herna Verhagen (CEO PostNL)
Nick Jue (CEO ING NL)
Michiel Buitelaar (COO Sanoma Media)
Danny van der Eijk (Chairman Achmea)
Harry van Dorenmalen (CEO IBM Europe)
Program
Board
Program mgt: Jorij Abraham
Mar/Com: Inge Demoed
Research: Eveline Poerink
Events: Marin Wiellersen
Support
Team
Travel
Dymfke Kuijpers
…
…
…
…
Founding Partners:
…
Expert Group
Selection
…
…
Knowledge partners:
Expert Group
Transaction
…
Expert Group
Ecological
…
Expert Group
Omnichannel
Organization
Expert Group
Security & Fraud
…
Finance
Expert Group
Future
Touchpoints
Expert group
Technological
…
Expert Group
Business
models
Expert Group
Orientation
Customer
Journey
Arjen Bonsing
…
Expert Group
Online
Entrepreneurship
Key Themes
Axel Groothuis
Expert group
Cross Border
(e)Commerce
Expert group
Shopper
Behaviour
Future
Trends
Retail
…
Expert Group
The New
Shopping Street
…
Science partners:
© Shopping 2020
Expert Group
Supply Chain
…
…
Expert Group
Delivery
Expert Group
Political & Legal
Expert Group
Customer
Care
…
Netwerk partners:
Smarter
Shoppi
ng
Expert Group
Customer data
value mgt.
…
Media partners:
6
In total more than 460 experts have worked for half a year on Shopping2020
© Shopping 2020
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Some intermediate results of Shopping2020
Research study among 12.000 consumers
360 Vistors at
ShoppingTomorrow
2.000+ subscribers to Shopping2020
bi-weekly newsletter
1.280 followers
1000+ visitors at ShoppingToday
25+ external presentations
460 experts involved
60+ planned inCompany
Master Classes
Supported by 16 industry associations
150+ expertgroup meetings
200+ press publications
2.500+ visitors at Shopping Together
150+ companies participating
20+ company visits
15.000 reports downloaded
at Shopping2020.nl
3.500+ Unique visitors p/w
at Shopping2020.nl
© Shopping 2020
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Table of Content
What is Shopping2020?
Key Findings
Shopping2020 Action Plan
Participation Possibilities
© Shopping 2020
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THE MARKET
The Dutch consumer expects to by 52% online in 2020
25% expects to not use the offline channel at all anymore
xx Expenditures
in billions €
purchases1
Online
Percentage
52
36
17
2012
10
2020 – expert 2020 –
opinion
consumenten
expectation
25-28
Which products/services will for sure no longer be bought
via physical retail?
% respondents (n=11913)
Flight tickets & hotels
Event tickets
nsurances
Travel packages
Telecom
Media & entertainment
Consumer electronics
Toys
Book
Fashion: shoes & lifestyle
Daily groceries
Home & garden
Sport articles
Fashion: clothing
35-40
41
40
37
36
31
24
23
20
20
17
17
15
14
12
Services
Goods
Ø 25
1 GfK definieert de volgende definitie voor online aankopen: aankopen via smartphone, tablet, desktop, laptop, instore devices, overige digitale devices (watch, glasses, …) en online aankoop afhalen op pick
up point
Bron: GfK Consumentenonderzoek, November 2013 onder 12.0000 Consumenten
© Shopping 2020
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THE CONSUMER
The C2C market is already bigger than the B2C market
The growth of the ‘share economy’ is expected to be huge
Turnover Marktplaats.nl1
Billion €
Total retail turnover in the Netherlands
Billion €
Consumer-toconsumer
(c2c)
turnover is
growing 28
times faster
than retail
+1% p.a.
91
94
92
93
93
28%
96
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
7,5
~9
~11
~14
2010
2011
2012
2013
C2C platformen
Jaar van oprichting
The number
of C2C
platforms is
growing
rapidly
1995
1999
2004
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1 Alleen data beschikbaar van 2010 en groei 2012-2013, voor 2010-2012 is een groei van 20% aangenomen (groei online markt was 19% p.a. in deze jaren)
BRON: online search; Marktplaats.nl; Forrester
© Shopping 2020
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THE TECHNOLOGY
Technology will ‘grow’ closer to our body
We will buy more at an instant and expect 1-hour delivery
© Shopping 2020
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THE COMPETION
Competition will increase on all fronts
New entrants
• Scrary 5 own the infrastructure
• Foreign players enter the market
Supplier
• Brands selling direct
• China selling direct
Extre price
& service transparancy
Consumer
• Spends less
• Group buying
Substitutes
• Share economy is growing
• 3D printing is developing
© Shopping 2020
WHAT NOW?
Klantaandeel
Five new business models will arise…
Vertical Retailers
(Brands)
Generic Retailers
(Portals)
Specialist Retailers
Market Makers
Market
space
Optimizers
Twilight
zone
Service Providers
Market
place
Product / Marktaandeel
© Shopping 2020
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WHAT NOW?
Competition will more from focusing on price and service to innovation
This demands a new kind of organizational structure
!
© Shopping 2020
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Table of Content
What is Shopping2020?
Key Findings
Shopping2020 Action Plan
Participation Possibilities
© Shopping 2020
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Shopping2020 will transform from research to action program in 2014-2015
© Shopping 2020
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Four strategies & nine action programs have been defined to prepare the
Dutch market and it’s companies for the Consumer of 2020
Four strategies
Realized by nine programs
A▪ Programs for BV Netherlands
I
II
Create a seamless customer
journey across the on- and offline
channels
Position the Netherlands as the
eCommerce country for innovation,
logistics and entrepreneurship
B▪ For Companies
▪ E-ID
▪ One click buy
▪ Further develop
▪ The New Shopping Street
▪
▪ Digital Gateway to Europe
▪ eAccelerator
▪ …
▪
▪ Level Playing Field
III
IV
Increasing our (online) market by
selling more across our borders
▪ X-border pipeline
Realize this ambition in a
sustainable way
▪ eCommerce Footprint
▪ (Responsible) Advertising 2020
▪ …
© Shopping 2020
▪
Shopping2020 as
Knowlegdge Platform
Communicate the
results via:
– Road shows
– Master classes
– Conferences
– Etcetera
Share know-how via
the eCommerce
handbook
Train: the 7 success
factors of modern
entrepreneurship
21
Activation programs for companies
Communicate the findings via roadshows, event, master classes, …
Share know-how by writing the 2020 handbook with experts
Train: the 7 success factors for modern entrepreneurship
Ik …
Know my existing and potential customers
Have organized my customer experience
Use the relevant technologies
Have a clear role in the value chain
Have optimized my customer reach
Am organized to realize my objectives
Can change fast and flexible
© Shopping 2020
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Part of the Shopping2020 Actionplan is to write the 2020 Handbook
The handbook is written and maintained by the expert groups…
Seach Engine Opt.
Online Branding
Merchandising
Supply chain mgt.
Campaign Management
Basic
Advanced issues
Social Media
Market Places
Usability & design
Email Marketing
Warehousing
Customer Care
Product Information Mgt.
Online Security
Best Practices
Affiliate Marketing
Product Photography
Content Marketing
Finance & Fraud
Social Monitoring
Scientific Research
Customer Retention
Search Engine Adv.
Delivery & Return Mgt.
Analytics & Big Data
Retail Packaging
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Shopping2020 Sector & Company Activation Program 2014 / 2015
Activating companies by sharing the Shopping2020 Insights
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
Program Board Meeting
Shopping2020 Synthese
Company Master classes
Shopping2020 Roadshow
Sector Events
eRetail
Modint
DNW2020
NUVO
RCC
ANVR
Gebra
Shopping Tomorrow
Expert Group Meetings
Shopping Today
registration
nominees
Multichannel award
awards
Seattle Study Trip
Shopping Time
New York Study Trip
Shopping Together/Diner
© Shopping 2020
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The Shopping2020 Program Organization for 2014
Ed Nijpels (voorzitter)
Board of
Bernard Wientjes (VNO-NCW)
Recommendation Leendert-Jan Visser (MKB NL)
Arie van Bellen (Directeur ECP)
Martijn van Dam (kamerlid PvdA)
Jan Kees de Jager (vml. Min. Financiën)
Cor Molenaar (Erasmus Universiteit)
Kitty Koelemeijer (Universiteit Nyenrode)
Walther Ploos van Amstel (Vrije Universiteit)
Erik Fledderus (Directeur TNO)
Heleen van Oord (Directeur DQ&A)
Giovanni Colauto (CEO Bijenkorf)
Dick Boer (CEO Ahold)
Harry Bruijniks (CEO Euretco)
Herna Verhagen (CEO PostNL)
Ronald van Zetten (CEO Hema)
Nick Jue (CEO ING NL)
Joost Romeijn (CEO Sundio Group)
Michiel Buitelaar (vml. COO Sanoma)
Paul Nijhof (CEO 3 Suisses)
Danny van der Eijk (Chairman Achmea)
Annemarie van Gaal (CEO van Gaal & Co.) Harry van Dorenmalen (CEO IBM Europe)
Program
Board
Program mgt: Jorij Abraham
Mar/Com: Inge Demoed
Research: Eveline Poerink
Congres: Marin Wiellersen
Support
Team
Retail
Founding Partners:
…
The New Shopping Street
E-Accelerator
Dutch Export Pipeline
Advertising2020
…
One Click Buy
Digital Gateway to Europe
Level Playing Field
E-Commerce Footprint
…
…
Nieuw ondernemen
Cross Border (e)Commerce
Winkel Concepten
Commerce Platforms
Agile Development
Wetgeving
Concept Modelling
Omnichannel Organisatie
De Slimme Winkel
Mobile Commerce
System Integration
…
Orientation
Customer
Journey
Expert
Groups
Finance
E-ID
Action
Program Teams
Key Themes
Expert Groups
Travel
Selection
Transaction
Delivery
Customer Care
(Online) Branding
Market Places
Usability & design
Payment & Refunding
Purchasing & Supply chain
Customer Service
Direct Marketing
Search Engine Marketing
Merchandising
Fraud Management
Warehousing & Returns
Brand Monitoring
Performance Based
Content Marketing
Product Photography
Hosting & Security
Retail Packaging
Analytics & Big Data
…
….
Product Info. Mgt.
…
Delivery & Service.
Customer Retention
…
…
…
…
…
…
Kennis partners:
Wetenschappelijke partners:
© Shopping 2020
Netwerk partners:
Media partners:
25
The expert groups have as main goal to write a chapter in the handbook
The set-up of each expert group is as follows
Goal:
• Write a chapter for the handbook including
both basics, best practices, solutions to
advances issues and links to further reading
• Optionally do further research into a specific
area within the expert group’s field of
interest.
Experts:
• Specialists who are known for their expertise
(e.g. professors, researchers, consultants).
• Retailers (goods & services) who are endreponsible for the expert group theme within
their company.
Experts are invited in close cooperation between
the chairman and host of the expert group and
Shopping2020.
Method:
The book is writing using Wikimedia as platform.
Each expert group meets 4 – 5 times to discuss
specific content of the chapter. Goals is to create
a print version end January 2015.
Obligations for experts:
• Share expertise and own insights
• Write sub-sections of the chapter
• Learn & have fun
Obligations for the expert group chairman
• Chair the expert group meetings
• Coordinate the writing of the chapter
• Guard the quality of the chapter’s content
Obligations for the expert group host
• Facilitate the expert group meetings
• Participate as expert within the group
• Support Shopping2020 financially
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Roadshow & Master classes
The road show is open for all local companies
Master classes:
• Are given at individual companies meant for
(higher) management and board level
• Time slot: 1 – 3 hours
• Presentations focus on the overall findings.
• At request a detailed presentation of one or more
expert groups can be given.
Roadshows:
• Goal is to organize a roadshow in each province
together with local city counsels
• Entrance is free for members of participating
associations & local SME retailers*.
• Registration is mandatory at Shopping2020.nl
• Set-up:
• 17:30 Coffee, Tea & Sandwiches
• 18:00 Introduction Shopping2020
• 18:15 Trends, Scenario’s & Ambition
• 19:15 Break (Coffee & Tea)
• 19:30 How to prepare for 2020?
• 21:00 Discussion & end of event
* If supported by local city counsel. No accessible for service providers.
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Shopping Today: The Shopping Event of the Year (23th of September)
Sharing consumer trends, insights & best practices about shopping in Retail, Travel & Finance
Keynote speaker
Keynote speaker
Keynote speaker
Retail
Finance
Travel
Cross Border
Keynote speaker
Twinkle
Top 100
Keynote speaker
…
…
Multi
Channel
Awards
Networking Drink
© Shopping 2020
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USA Study Trips: Seattle & New York
Goal: Inspire companies & create urge for change.
Target group: Board of Directors & C-level.
Draft Seattle Program 2014:
• 28/9: Arrival
• 29/9: Visit Shop.org Annual Conferences Day 1
• 30/9: Visit Shop.org Annual Conferences Day 2
• 1/10 and 2/10: Visit Amazon, REI, Nordstrom,
Expedia, Microsoft, Nike, etcetera.
• 3/10: Departure
Draft New York Program 2015:
• 8/1: Arrival
• 9/1 and 10/1: Visit Multichannel best practices
and New York Alley companies
• 11/1: Day off
• 12/1: Visit NRF Big Retail Show 2015 Day 1
• 13/1: Visit NRF Big Retail Show 2015 Day 2
• 14/1: Departure
Investment: € 7.500 p/p per trip (only for participants).
© Shopping 2020
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Table of Content
What is Shopping2020?
Key Findings
Shopping2020 Action Plan
Participation Possibilities
© Shopping 2020
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Participation of Industry Associations in Shopping2020
Industry Associations can become member of the Program Board of Shopping2020
Benefits for Associations:
• Access to the program board of Shopping 2020 to
jointly steer the defined actions.
• Promotion of own brand (listed at Shopping2020
website, reports, etc.).
• Shopping2020 synthesis can be published under
own association name*
• Access to the reports created by the experts.
• Association members have the right to access:
• ShoppingTomorrow: 2 persons.
• ShoppingToday: 3 persons.
• ShoppingTogether: all members**
• Association members receive a discount of € 200
for access to ShoppingToday.
• Support of own event with Shopping2020 content
& experts.
• Access right to USA Seattle (additional: € 7.500
p/p) & New York study trips (€ 5.000 p/p).
Base investment: € 5.000
* With clear reference to Shopping2020 and its participants.
** Depending if Shopping2020 can be hosted at the WWVD again.
© Shopping 2020
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Participation by City Counsels & Municipalities in Shopping2020
City counsels and municipalities can become City Partner of Shopping2020
City Partner Benefits:
• Access to the Shopping2020 network of more
than 100 retailers and 460 business experts.
• Local companies receive a discount of € 200 for
access to ShoppingToday.
• Access to the Shopping Today conference on the
25th of September (max. 3 persons).
• Access to all expert group reports.
• Access to the final report for all local businesses.
• The right to publish the final report under own
name for the local business community*.
• An exclusive Master class of all Shopping2020
findings at a facility of the city/municipality.
• Promotion of the own city/municipality as “City
Partner Shopping2020” (listed at Shopping2020
website, reports, etc.).
• Access right to USA Seattle (additional: € 7.500
p/p) & New York study trips (€ 5.000 p/p).
City Partners of Shopping2020
Investment: € 7.500
* With clear reference to Shopping2020 and its participants.
© Shopping 2020
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Participation of B2C Selling companies in Shopping2020
B2C Selling companies can become Premium Participant in Shopping2020
Premium Participant Benefits:
• Employees (max. 3) can participate for free in
the expert groups of Shopping2020.
• Access to all Shopping2020 expert group reports
and synthesis for internal use.
• Promotion of own brand (listed at Shopping2020
website, reports, etc.).
• Free entrance .to the three planned
conferences:
• ShoppingTomorrow: 1 person;
• ShoppingToday: 3 persons;
• ShoppingTogether: free
• Additional employees receive a discount of
€ 200 for access to ShoppingToday.
• In company Master class about Shopping2020
findings including all GfK research results.
• Access right to USA Seattle (additional: € 7.500
p/p) & New York study trips (€ 5.000 p/p).
Premium Partners in 2013
Investment: € 2.500.
© Shopping 2020
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Founding Partners of Shopping2020
Service Providers can become Founding Partner of Shopping2020
Network benefits
• Host of an expert group of Shopping2020:
▪ Expert group meeting at own location
▪ First choice of an expert group theme
• Access to all Road Show meetings.
• Access to the ShoppingToday, Tomorrow & Together
events (max. 3 p).
Founding Partners in 2013
Knowledge benefits:
• Access to all expert group reports & synthesis.
• The right to publish the synthesis & expert group report
under own brand name*.
• An in company master class of all Shopping2020 results.
Branding benefits:
• Keynote slot at ShoppingToday with an A-brand client.
• Promotion of own brand as Founding Partner of
Shopping2020 (events, website, reports, etc.).
• Access right to USA Seattle (additional: € 7.500 p/p) &
New York study trips (€ 5.000 p/p).
Investment: € 50.000 (split 50/50 over 2014/15)
* With clear reference to Shopping2020 and its participants
and after written approval of Shopping2020..
© Shopping 2020
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Expert group Hosts of Shopping2020
Service Providers can become Expert Group Host of Shopping2020
Network benefits
• Host of an expert group of Shopping2020:
▪ Expert group meeting at own location
▪ Jointly determine research theme
• Access to the ShoppingToday, Tomorrow & Together
events (max. 3 p).
Expert group Hosts in 2013
Knowledge benefits:
• Access to all expert group reports & synthesis.
• The right to publish the synthesis & expert group report
under own brand name*.
• An in company master class of all Shopping2020 results.
Branding benefits:
• Track slot at ShoppingToday to present group findings.
• Promotion of own brand as Expert Group Host of
Shopping2020 (conference, website, reports, etc.).
• Access right to USA Seattle (additional: € 7.500 p/p) &
New York study trips (€ 5.000 p/p).
Investment: € 30.000 (can be split over 2014/’15)
* With clear reference to Shopping2020 and its participants
and after written approval of Shopping2020..
© Shopping 2020
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The Shopping2020 Team
Jorij Abraham
Programma Management
E: JorijAbraham@thuiswinkel.org
M: +31 6 52 84 00 39
Inge Demoed
Marketing Communication
E: IngeDemoed@thuiswinkel.org
M: +31 6 34 42 84 12
Eveline Poerink
Expert Group Coordination
E: EvelinePoerink@thuiswinkel.org
M: +31 6 81 40 72 37
Marin Wiellersen
Event Organization
E: MarinWiellersen@thuiswinkel.org
M: +31 6 19 99 10 81
© Shopping 2020
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