Scandpower AS
P.O. Box 3,
N-2027 Kjeller, Norway
Risk management in the Scandinavian
railway industry
Karl Ove Ingebrigtsen
Vice president
Denmark
Sweden
Norway
What is risk management?
“The systematic application of
management policies, procedures
and practices to the tasks of
communicating, establishing the
context, identifying, analysing,
evaluating, treating, monitoring and
reviewing risk”
RISK MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES Companion to AS/NZS 4360:2004
•
Risk management is the human
activity which integrates
–
–
–
recognition of risk, risk assessment
developing strategies to manage risk
mitigation of risk using managerial
resources
Why risk management
•
Risk management is a guide to
ensure use of knowledge,
experience, understanding,
common interest, contribution
from all to obtain the common
goal of the success…
•
The success is due to the
following benefits of risk
management:
–
–
–
fewer surprises due to identifying
all unwanted events
involvement of all parties give
access to experience
improved information for all
decision making
Risk management in Scandinavia
•
Motivation and foundation
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•
Experience with risk management
–
–
•
The Oil & Gas experience
Authority requirements
General safety awareness
Learned by accidents
Formal requirement in Norway since
the 90’
Applied on all railway systems
Bad risk management in several
railway projects
–
–
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Loss of production
Loss of reputation
Economical losses
Loss of assets
From Ad-hoc operations to integrated risk management
Comprehensive and
integrated
Proactive
Reactive
Ad-hoc
• Occasional focus on
different mishaps
• Treat symptoms
as they occurs
• Less lessons learned
from operational
experience
• Identifies causes
to mishaps
• Corrections made
on experienced
problems
• Proactive strategy
for risk
management
• Extensive risk
analysis of the
operation
• Judge risk
according to
strategies and
targets
• risk management
integrated in the business
management
processes in the company
• Establishment of riskindicators in
critical processes
of the operation
• Continuos surveillance
and risk management
for changes and improvement
in the organisation
Risk management requirements
•
Railway System
Signaling system
EN 50126
(RAMS)
•
•
EN 50159
(Communication)
Sub-system
Component
EN 50128 EN 50129
(Software) (System safety)
•
•
•
•
The specification and
demonstration of Reliability,
Availability, Maintainability and
Safety (EN-50126 RAMS)
Risk Management AS/NZS 4360
E&P Forum, Guidelines for the
Development and Application
of Health, Safety and
Environmental Management
Systems.
SAMRAIL
EN 50128 Software
EN 50129 System safety
EN 50159 Communication
The risk management models
The RAMS standard
Concept (1)
Modification
and retro-fit (13)
System definition &
application Conditions (2)
System
Acceptance (10)
Operation and
maintenance (11)
Risk Analysis (3)
Performance
Monitoring (12)
System requirement (4)
Apportionment of
system requirements (5)
Design and
implementation (6)
Manufacture (7)
System Validation
(Including safety acceptance
and commissioning) (9)
Installation (8)
De-commissioning
and disposal (14)
The risk management models
E&P model
policy and strategic
objectives
organisation,
resources and
documentation
review
leadership
and
commitment
implementation
and monitoring
planning
audit
evaluation
and risk
analysis
The main model applied
ANALYSE RISKS
EVALUATE RISKS
TREAT RISKS
MONITOR AND REVIEW
IDENTIFY RISKS
RISK ASSESSMENT
COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
COMMUNICATION AND COOPERATION WITH ALL
INVOLVED PARTIES
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
·
·
·
·
·
The internal Context
The external Context
The Risk Management Context
Develop Criteria
Define the Structure
IDENTIFY RISKS
·
·
·
What can happen?
When and where?
How and why?
Determine
consequences
Determine
likelihood
Determine Level of Risk
EVALUATE RISKS
·
·
Compare against criteria
Set priorities
Treat
Risks
MONITOR AND REVIEW
COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT
ANALYSE RISKS
Identify exsisting controls
• Internal
Management
Train operation control
Marked department
Internal bodies, safety office
Planning department
Engineer
Conductor
• External
handicapped
Labour union
Authorities
Maintainers
Press
Travellers
No
Yes
TREAT RISKS
·
·
·
·
Identify options
Assess options
Prepare and implement treatment plans
Analyse and evaluate residual risk
Belated wisdom is not allowed
Establish the context
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
·
·
·
·
·
The internal Context
The external Context
The Risk Management Context
Develop Criteria
Define the Structure
IDENTIFY RISKS
·
·
·
What can happen?
When and where?
How and why?
Identify exsisting controls
Determine
consequences
Determine
likelihood
Determine Level of Risk
EVALUATE RISKS
·
·
Compare against criteria
Set priorities
Treat
Risks
No
Yes
TREAT RISKS
·
·
·
·
Identify options
Assess options
Prepare and implement treatment plans
Analyse and evaluate residual risk
MONITOR AND REVIEW
COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT
ANALYSE RISKS
Identification of risk by identification of barriers
Barriers
Cause
Event
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
·
·
·
·
·
Cause 1
The internal Context
The external Context
The Risk Management Context
Develop Criteria
Define the Structure
Accident
Cause 2
Cause 3
IDENTIFY RISKS
·
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·
Consequence 1
Consequence 2
Consequence 3
What can happen?
When and where?
How and why?
Cause 4
Consequence 4
Identify exsisting controls
Determine
consequences
Determine
likelihood
Determine Level of Risk
EVALUATE RISKS
·
·
MONITOR AND REVIEW
COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT
ANALYSE RISKS
Fault tree analysis
Event tree analysis
Consequence 1
Loss of
critical
function
Technical or
operational
failure/fault
Accident
Consequence 2
Compare against criteria
Set priorities
Treat
Risks
No
Yes
Reduce the
probability
of failure
Reduce the
consequence
of failure
Reduce
loss
TREAT RISKS
·
·
·
·
Identify options
Assess options
Prepare and implement treatment plans
Analyse and evaluate residual risk
Analysis of safety barriers
Barriers:
Design
Maintenance procedures
Operational procedures
Risk analysis and evaluation – the strength of the barriers
·
·
·
·
·
The internal Context
The external Context
The Risk Management Context
Develop Criteria
Define the Structure
IDENTIFY RISKS
·
·
·
What can happen?
When and where?
How and why?
Determine
consequences
Determine
likelihood
Determine Level of Risk
EVALUATE RISKS
·
·
MONITOR AND REVIEW
COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT
ANALYSE RISKS
Identify exsisting controls
Frequency of occurrence of a hazardous event
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
No barriers
present
One
organizational
barrier
Several
independent
organizational
barrier
One physical
and one or
several
organizational
barriers
Several
independent
physical barriers
Insignificant
No
•
Physical barrier
•
Functional barrier
•
Symbolic barrier
•
Immaterially barrier
Yes
TREAT RISKS
·
·
·
·
Identify options
Assess options
Prepare and implement treatment plans
Analyse and evaluate residual risk
Critical
Catastrophic
Physical / Technical barrier
Compare against criteria
Set priorities
Treat
Risks
Marginal
Severity Levels of Hazard Consequence
The results and follow up
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
·
·
·
·
·
The internal Context
The external Context
The Risk Management Context
Develop Criteria
Define the Structure
IDENTIFY RISKS
·
·
·
What can happen?
When and where?
How and why?
Determine
consequences
Determine
likelihood
Determine Level of Risk
EVALUATE RISKS
·
·
Compare against criteria
Set priorities
Treat
Risks
No
Yes
TREAT RISKS
·
·
·
·
Identify options
Assess options
Prepare and implement treatment plans
Analyse and evaluate residual risk
MONITOR AND REVIEW
COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT
ANALYSE RISKS
Identify exsisting controls
HAZARD log (Database / Excel)
•
Railway system
•
Hazard
•
Risk reduction
•
Influence on RAMS
•
Reference document for treating
risk
•
Responsible for closing action
•
Verification of closing action
Monitoring and review
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
·
·
·
·
·
The internal Context
The external Context
The Risk Management Context
Develop Criteria
Define the Structure
Notice
IDENTIFY RISKS
·
·
·
Client
What can happen?
When and where?
How and why?
Determine
consequences
Determine
likelihood
Determine Level of Risk
MONITOR AND REVIEW
COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT
ANALYSE RISKS
Identify exsisting controls
Preparation
Opening meeting
EVALUATE RISKS
·
·
Compare against criteria
Set priorities
Treat
Risks
No
Yes
Collecting facts
TREAT RISKS
·
·
·
·
Closing meeting
Identify options
Assess options
Prepare and implement treatment plans
Analyse and evaluate residual risk
Preparing report
Follow-up
The helpful tools
Concept (1)
Modification
and retro-fit (13)
System definition &
application Conditions (2)
System
Acceptance (10)
Operation and
maintenance (11)
De-commissioning
and disposal (14)
Risk Analysis (3)
policy and strategic
objectives
Performance
Monitoring (12)
System requirement (4)
Apportionment of
system requirements (5)
organisation,
resources and
documentation
review
System Validation
(Including safety acceptance
and commissioning) (9)
leadership
and
commitment
Design and
implementation (6)
Installation (8)
implementation
and monitoring
Manufacture (7)
planning
IDENTIFY RISKS
ANALYSE RISKS
EVALUATE RISKS
TREAT RISKS
MONITORANDREVIEW
audit
RISKASSESSMENT
COMMUNICATEANDCONSULT
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
evaluation
and risk
analysis