Citi Corporate and Investment Banking Society of Mining, Metallurgy, and Exploration | Current Trends in Mining Finance | New York | April 2013 Trends and Alternatives in Metals & Mining Resource Funding Michael N. Cramer, P. Engr. Managing and Technical Director Global Industrials | Metals and Mining michael.n.cramer@citi.com Christopher Elizondo Analyst Global Industrials | Metals and Mining christopher.elizondo@citi.com Table of Contents 1. Global Industry Trends 1 2. Capital Raising Activities 6 3. Capital Raisings Takeaways Appendix 16 1. Global Industry Trends Fewer Base Metals Companies 1980-1985 1986-1990 1990-95 1996-98 1999-01 2001-03 2004-06 2007-09 Codelco Empresa Nacional (Ventanas) 2010-12 Codelco Freeport-McMoran Rio Tinto Minera Penzoil (Duval) Cyprus Minerals Inspiration Copper Amax Cerro (Cerro Verde) Phelps Dodge Kennecott (Chino) Freeport-McMoran Freeport-McMoran Cyprus Amax Phelps Dodge Phelps Dodge Cobre Mining Minorco (Copebras Carbon) Plains Exploration Oil & Gas McMoRan Exploration Glencore International Viterra of Canada Xstrata M.I.M. Holding BHP Billiton (Tintaya) Falconbridge Noranda Falconbridge Minorco Anglo American Properties Anglo American (S. Africa) Exxon (Disputada) Anglo American ASARCO Kennecott (Ray, Hayden) Southern Copper Corp. Grupo Mexico Minera Mexico Peru Copper (Toromocho) Frontera Copper Anglo American ASARCO Grupo Mexico / Southern Copper Grupo Mexico KGHM Quadra FNX KGHM Norilsk Nickel Norilsk Nickel Kazakhmys Corp. Mansfelder Kupfer Kazakhmys Corp. BHP Magma Copper Cerro Corp. (Tintaya) Billiton Rio Algom WMC Resources BHP Billiton BHP Billiton Magma Copper Billiton Rio Tinto Newmont (Palabora) Kennecott (Bingham C.) Freeport (Expansion) CRA Alcan Rio Tinto 50 Companies 1 Global Industry Trends 10 Companies Fewer Coal Companies 1980-1985 1986-1990 1990-95 MAPCO / Alliance Coal Hopkins County Coal Warrior Coal White Oak Green River First Reserve Corp Alpha Mgmt Coastal Coal Mears Enterprises Nicewonder Coal Group Getty Coal Texaco Coal Amoco (Coal) Amax Coal Bunn Mines Costain East Pittston Beth Energy Fluor Corporation Horizon Natural Resources Big Elk Mining Great Western Coal Peachtree Ridge Mining Belle Coal Dal Tex Coal Corp Ashland Coal Arch Mineral Atlantic Richfield Coal Vulcan (N. Rochelle) Canyon Holdings Shell Coal BP / Old Ben Zeigler Nerco / East Addington Anker 1999-01 2001-03 2010-12 Alpha Natural Resources Texaco Coal Cyprus Minerals RAG Intr. Foundation Coal Pittston Massey Energy Massey Energy Ashland Coal Arch Coal Arch Coal Zeigler Horizon ICG Pinn Oak Consol Energy Consol Energy Consol Energy Magnum Coal Patriot Coal Arc Light Patriot Coal Peabody Holding Co Eastern Associated Exxon (Rawhide, Caballo) Beaver Dam Coal Arclar Black Beauty Coal Shand Mining Excel Coal Macarthur Peabody Energy Corp. Peabody Black Beauty Kennecott PacifiCorp/Antlpe/SprgCk Sun Co./Cordero Rojo Exxon/Caballo Rojo Kerr-McGee/Jcb Ranch Rio Tinto Energy Drummond 68 Companies Global Industry Trends 2007-09 Alliance Resource Partners Arch East (Union) Campbells Creek Mining Cline Resources Peabody East 2 2004-06 Alliance Coal Cliffs Natural Resources Centennial Asset Amapa U.S. Steel Met United Taconite Portman Limited Consolidation Coal U.S. Steel Steam S.E. Coal Company Inland Steel Coal Island Creek Coal Signalfern R&P Calumet Distribution AMVEST Corp 1996-98 8 Companies Fewer Traditional Financial Institutions 1990-95 Citibank Travelers Smith Barney Salomon Brothers Schroder Associates First Capital Banacci Handlowy Golden State Bancorp KorAm Bank Intra S.A. Corretora BankAmerica Continental Bank Security Pacific NCNB Citizens & Southern Sovran Barnett BankBoston Bay Bank RIHT National Bank Fleet Summit Bank MBNA LaSalle Bank Countrywide Merrill Lynch Manufacturers Hanover Chemical Chase Manhattan J.P. Morgan Bank One First Commerce First Chicago NBD Bancorp Bear Stearns Washington Mutual Travelers/ SB 1996-98 Travelers/SSB 1999-01 Citigroup BankAmerica Citigroup 2001-03 Citigroup 2007-09 2010-12 Citi Citigroup Bank of America NationsBank NationsBank Bank of America Bank of America BankBoston FleetBoston FleetBoston Chemical First Interstate Wells Fargo Norwest First Security CoreStates First Union Wachovia SouthTrust Golden West Chase Manhattan JPMorgan JP Morgan JP Morgan Bank One 1st Chicago/NBD Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Wells Fargo First Union Wachovia Wachovia Wachovia SunTrust Crestar National Commerce GB&T SunTrust SunTrust PNC United National Bancorp Riggs National Mercantile Bancshares National City PNC U.S. Bancorp 59 Companies Global Industry Trends SunTrust PNC PNC First Bank U.S. Bancorp Firstar Downey 3 2004-06 U.S. Bancorp PNC US Bancorp 7 Companies Near-term Industry Fundamentals Demand – Uncertainty – GDP-dependency – China – Infrastructure to consumer – Global stimulus packages – ongoing? – Eurozone – recovery? Updated 2013 GDP Forecasts USA Brazil Russia 3.00% Japan India 5.70% China 7.80% 1.40% Global GDP 2.70% Source: CIRA Global Economic Outlook & Stratehy Feb. 27, 2013 12,000 10,000 $ / MT 8,000 6,000 4,000 Financing Trends – Traditional and Alternatives – – – – – 4 Financing markets have changed Access for major players exists, but Junior producers remain challenged Trend towards “proactive and rescue M&A’s” Growing relevance of alternative and non-traditional funding sources Global Industry Trends 3.10% Eurozone -0.50% Australia 2.40% Supply – Constrained – Increasing costs, currency volatility, and lower grades – Capital expenditure discipline and skills shortages – Financial discipline for liquidity, cash flows, and dividends – Government influence: windfall taxes, including royalties and export controls Prices – Volatility – Supply and demand issues as per above – Effects of restocking and inventory levels – Influence of speculation (ETFs and Hedge Funds) 2.00% 2,000 0 COPPER LEAD ZINC ALUMINUM Global Metals & Mining Mergers & Acquisitions Activity Excluding 2009, mining enjoyed a “Golden Period” of M&A activity from 2006 - 2011, while 2012 ushered in a more subdued deal environment. Write-downs of recent acquisitions have highlighted the acute relationship of price cycles and M&A activity. Dollar Volume: Global Metals & Mining 300,000 280,718 251,555 239,876 250,000 205,194 USD (MM) 200,000 203,751 177,526 $49Bn Glencore Xstrata PLC transaction 150,000 103,942 91,167 100,000 82,323 63,297 58,252 37,009 50,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 43,527 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Deal Frequency: Global Metals & Mining 5,000 4,410 4,500 4,000 3,694 3,936 3,691 3,464 Volume 3,500 3,098 2,711 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,674 1,468 1,543 2001 2002 2,097 1,999 2004 2005 1,778 1,500 1,000 500 2000 Source: Thomson Financial as of January 2013. 5 Global Industry Trends 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2. Capital Raising Activities Mining Company Life Cycle and Capital Evolution The type of financing available to a mining company is linked to the stage of its properties, assets, and projects. Life-Cycle Stage Exploration Development Emerging Producer Established Producer By Market Equity Hybrid Capital Convertible Bond Bond Bank - Project Finance Bank - Revolving Credit Facility Commodity / Trade Transaction Services Alternative or NonTraditional Funding Ready Access / Execution 6 Capital Raising Activities Intermediate Access / Execution No Access Traditional Capital Raising The global bank, equity, and public debt market have historically been the leading sources of finance for this industry. Indications are that they will now share the space with non-traditional sources. Syndicated Bank Loan Market – Revolving Credit Facilities, Term Loans, Pre-Export Financing, etc. Project Finance – Recourse, Limited Recourse, etc. Debt Capital Markets – Public Bonds, 144A’s, High Yield Notes, Secured Export Notes (SENs), etc. Equity Capital Markets – Common, Preferred, Convertibles, Hybrid Capital, etc. 7 Capital Raising Activities Syndicated Loans Dollar Volume Syndicated loans were a consistent source of liquidity until the financial crisis of 2008 / 2009, recovered during 2010/2011, but significantly slowed again in 2012. Reasons include: refinancings peaked in 2011; commodity price pullbacks caused rationalization of capex budgets and a decline in M&A activity; and new capital adequacy regulations (Basel III). Dollar Volume: Global Metals & Mining 300,000 249,371 USD (MM) 250,000 188,623 182,808 200,000 182,128 133,232 150,000 115,189 100,220 100,000 61,623 50,000 43,046 2000 2001 49,434 2002 64,621 71,626 2003 2004 72,595 2005 2006 343 350 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Deal Frequency: Global Metals & Mining 350 321 303 300 291 263 252 250 Volume 206 200 150 164 192 176 136 100 50 2000 2001 Source: Thomson Financial as of January 2013 8 Capital Raising Activities 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Project Finance (PF) Dollar Volume PF was a traditionally ‘classic’ funding source, the overall activity of which not only remains sensitive to the commodity price environment, but also to the increasing efficiency of public debt markets (as a lower cost of funding.) Dollar Volume: Global Metals & Mining 30,000 24,543 25,000 USD (MM) 20,851 20,000 15,000 9,564 10,000 6,290 5,000 4,446 3,483 1,615 6,169 7,060 7,288 2009 2010 5,468 4,600 1,317 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2012 Deal Frequency: Global Metals & Mining 35 29 30 30 25 Volume 25 21 19 20 15 17 15 14 16 14 10 10 7 5 5 0 2000 2001 Source: Thomson Financial as of January 2013 9 Capital Raising Activities 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Equity Capital (EC) Markets Dollar Volume While equity volumes stabilized post the financial crisis, issuance activity in 2012 highlighted a correlation between geopolitical and economic disruptions and reduced commodity prices which had a combined impact on equity values. Dollar Volume: Global Metals & Mining 90,000 79,575 80,000 72,708 USD (MM) 70,000 55,858 60,000 50,047 50,000 54,339 40,771 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 12,397 5,067 5,884 2000 2001 2002 22,325 20,087 2004 2005 21,677 15,321 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Deal Frequency: Global Metals & Mining 90,000 79,575 80,000 72,708 70,000 55,858 Volume 60,000 50,047 50,000 40,771 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 12,397 5,067 5,884 2000 2001 Source: Thomson Financial as of January 2013 10 54,339 Capital Raising Activities 2002 22,325 20,087 2004 2005 15,321 2003 21,677 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Debt Capital Markets (DC) Dollar Volume Companies have successfully accessed the fixed income market as a means to both refinance and diversify away from the use of bank capital. The unprecedented and prevailing low yield environment has supported this funding migration. Dollar Volume: Global Metals & Mining 90,000 84,025 80,000 71,520 USD (MM) 70,000 62,178 60,000 50,974 50,000 40,000 30,000 22,632 20,000 10,000 14,247 12,342 2001 2002 16,640 16,398 15,329 2003 2004 2005 25,330 29,721 7,414 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 204 199 2010 2011 2012 Deal Frequency: Global Metals & Mining 300 275 Volume 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 189 136 126 93 103 91 67 90 87 95 2006 2007 2008 67 25 2000 2001 Source: Thomson Financial as of 12/31/09. 11 Capital Raising Activities 2002 2003 2004 2005 2009 2012 Global Metals & Mining Dollar Financing Activity When viewed as a whole, it can be seen that there are some challenges from traditional sources of mine finance. Trends in dollar volume in the industry are due to the following key drivers: capital liquidity from traditional investors, the commodity price cycle, corporate credit quality, and cost of funds. Aggregate Dollar Volume: Global Metals & Mining 400,000 350,000 300,000 USD (MM) 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 P ublic Debt 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 7,414 14,247 12,342 16,640 16,398 15,329 22,632 25,330 29,721 50,974 62,178 71,520 84,025 Equity 5,067 5,884 12,397 15,321 22,325 20,087 40,771 79,575 55,858 72,708 50,047 54,339 21,677 Syndicated Lo ans 43,046 61,623 49,434 64,621 71,626 133,232 182,808 249,371 188,623 72,595 100,220 182,128 115,189 1,615 3,483 1,317 4,446 6,290 6,169 4,600 24,543 9,564 7,060 7,288 20,851 5,468 P ro ject Finance Source: Thomson Financial as of 12/31/09. 12 Capital Raising Activities Alternative and Non-Traditional Capital Raising Alternative Funding Sources: Non-Traditional Funding Sources: Export Credit Agencies Institutional / Financial Investors Industrial Development Institutions Sovereign Wealth Funds Asset-Based Finance Resource Funds and Hedge Funds Private Placements Product Funding: Presale of Assets Commodity / Trade Finance Vendor / Equipment Finance 13 Capital Raising Activities Alternative Funding Sources include: Export Credit Agency Funding: Industrial Development Banks: Asset Base Finance: Private Placements: Commodity / Trade Financing: Vendor / Equipment Finance: 14 Capital Raising Activities And Non-Traditional Sources include: Institutional / Financial Investors: Sovereign Wealth Funds: Resource Funds and Hedge Funds: Product Funding: Presale of Assets Copper Concentrate 15 Capital Raising Activities Coal Reserves Metals Streams Uranium Sales 3. Capital Raisings Takeaways Capital Raising Takeaways Metals & Mining finance has and will continue to grow alongside event-driven activities (i.e. M&A, restructurings) but uncertainty and volatility could continue through 2013 Consolidations and acquisitions are expected to continue, albeit at a much slower rate Emerging Market companies have become viable global consolidators Access to financing windows can open and close rapidly, hence agility and preparation are key to accessing the right opportunities Junior mining and exploration companies will be challenged in the current financial environment Syndicated bank loans have historically been a consistent source of cost effective committed capital, although this has been impacted by increasing regulatory guidelines Most importantly, new sources of investors, financial options, and funding partnerships have surfaced to help fill the capital liquidity gap and all options need to be explored 16 Capital Raisings Takeaways Appendix Historical Metals Prices 17 Appendix Type GOLD SILVER COPPER 1978-1985 LME Cathode Cash, 1986-Present LME Grade A Cash ($/Tonne) (Cents/Lb.) LEAD Price Quoted Measure London Final ($/Troy Oz.) London Spot ($/Troy Oz.) 1978 195.05 - 1,241.94 56.33 658.47 29.87 683.73 31.01 1979 306.69 7.33 1,943.44 88.15 1,211.67 54.96 822.23 37.30 1,634.14 74.12 2,491.09 1.13 - 1980 612.56 20.87 2,113.20 95.85 904.99 41.05 843.66 38.27 1,805.13 81.88 6,393.05 2.90 9.36 1981 459.72 10.52 1,730.24 78.48 726.09 32.94 982.26 44.56 1,293.00 58.65 5,952.15 2.70 6.40 1982 375.79 7.92 1,445.51 65.57 545.09 24.73 848.18 38.47 1,021.83 46.35 4,827.86 2.19 4.10 1983 424.18 11.45 1,550.67 70.34 423.31 19.20 912.40 41.39 1,468.26 66.60 4,673.54 2.12 3.64 1984 360.44 8.14 1,377.50 62.48 441.74 20.04 1,071.46 48.60 1,281.75 58.14 4,739.68 2.15 3.56 1985 317.27 6.13 1,393.04 63.19 390.41 17.71 889.91 40.37 1,071.66 48.61 4,893.99 2.22 3.25 1986 367.51 5.47 1,324.52 60.08 405.69 18.40 837.75 38.00 1,180.78 53.56 3,879.92 1.76 2.87 1987 446.47 7.03 1,780.44 80.08 596.32 27.05 960.96 43.59 1,590.84 72.16 4,364.91 1.98 2.90 1988 437.05 6.54 2,599.64 117.92 653.77 29.66 1,345.47 61.03 2,586.88 117.34 13,469.50 6.11 3.44 1989 381.43 5.50 2,841.95 128.97 672.14 30.49 1,711.44 77.63 1,951.29 88.51 13,315.18 6.04 3.34 1990 383.47 4.88 2,667.94 121.02 810.06 36.74 1,517.88 68.85 1,639.44 74.37 8,862.09 4.02 2.81 1991 362.18 4.07 2,342.30 106.05 557.08 25.27 1,117.10 50.67 1,302.19 59.07 8,156.65 3.70 2.35 1992 343.73 3.95 2,286.39 103.71 540.88 24.53 1,239.77 56.24 1,254.28 56.89 7,010.31 3.18 2.18 1993 359.77 4.31 1,789.10 81.15 406.02 18.42 961.99 43.64 1,139.05 51.67 5,290.80 2.40 2.28 1994 384.01 5.29 2,306.92 104.64 547.38 24.83 997.70 45.26 1,476.78 66.99 6,348.96 2.88 4.50 1995 384.16 5.20 2,934.83 133.12 630.54 28.60 1,031.12 46.77 1,805.65 81.90 8,222.79 3.73 7.42 1996 387.70 5.20 2,293.80 104.05 773.87 35.10 1,025.14 46.50 1,505.66 68.30 7,495.30 3.40 3.61 1997 331.49 4.90 2,276.16 103.25 623.74 28.29 1,316.09 59.70 1,599.33 72.55 6,922.13 3.14 4.18 1998 294.16 5.55 1,653.65 75.01 528.22 23.96 1,024.11 46.45 1,357.47 61.57 4,629.45 2.10 3.31 1999 278.77 5.22 1,572.47 71.33 502.23 22.78 1,075.96 48.81 1,361.09 61.74 6,040.33 2.74 2.59 2000 279.81 4.95 1,813.07 82.23 454.40 20.61 1,127.50 51.13 1,549.33 69.48 8,663.69 3.93 2.58 2001 270.96 4.37 1,578.29 71.59 476.40 21.60 885.79 40.18 1,444.05 65.50 5,952.42 2.70 2.33 2002 310.01 4.60 1,559.47 70.74 452.67 20.53 777.28 35.32 1,350.24 61.25 6,775.18 3.07 4.04 2003 363.68 4.88 1,779.15 80.70 515.03 23.44 827.70 37.54 1,431.64 64.93 9,633.41 4.37 5.32 2004 409.21 6.65 2,865.89 129.99 886.55 39.99 1,047.75 47.52 1,715.76 77.82 13,830.76 6.27 17.14 2005 444.46 7.31 3,678.89 166.87 976.52 44.29 1,381.67 62.68 1,861.39 84.43 14,743.91 6.68 32.15 2006 604.34 11.57 6,722.14 304.91 1,289.72 58.50 3,276.31 148.61 2,541.32 115.27 24,921.08 11.30 25.10 2007 696.66 13.39 7,118.53 322.89 2,580.07 117.03 3,242.42 147.07 2,638.42 120.22 37,229.81 16.89 30.36 2008 871.71 15.02 6,955.88 315.52 2,090.66 94.90 1,874.71 85.03 2,572.79 116.70 21,110.65 9.57 29.08 2009 973.72 14.67 5,149.74 233.59 1,726.60 77.98 1,655.11 75.07 1,640.38 75.51 14,654.65 6.65 20.36 2010 1,233.19 20.25 7,534.72 341.75 2,148.42 97.49 2,160.74 98.01 2,173.09 98.57 21,808.85 9.89 15.93 2011 1,568.57 35.11 8,820.94 400.12 2,401.83 108.52 2,193.34 99.48 2,398.29 108.78 23,221.27 10.53 15.63 LME Cash ($/Tonne) (Cents/Lb.) ZINC 1980-1988 MW US HG,1989-Present LME SHG Cash ($/Tonne) (Cents/Lb.) ALUMINUM NICKEL LME Cash ($/Tonne) (Cents/Lb.) MOLYBDENUM MW Dealer Oxide,2001 LME Cash MO3 West ($/Tonne) ($/Lb.) ($/Lb.) - - - Jan-12 1,656.12 30.77 8,043.45 364.85 2,094.07 94.99 1,980.69 89.84 2,144.14 97.26 19,826.90 8.99 14.09 Feb-12 1,742.62 34.14 8,422.69 382.05 2,126.12 96.44 2,058.21 93.36 2,203.88 99.97 20,465.00 9.28 14.68 Mar-12 1,673.77 32.95 8,457.05 383.61 2,061.45 93.51 2,034.55 92.29 2,182.89 99.01 18,709.55 8.49 14.36 Apr-12 1,650.07 31.55 8,259.63 374.65 2,063.05 93.58 1,996.74 90.57 2,046.53 92.83 17,897.37 8.10 14.38 May-12 1,585.50 28.67 7,919.93 359.18 1,998.91 90.65 1,930.02 87.53 2,000.45 90.72 17,020.00 7.72 13.92 Jun-12 1,596.70 28.04 7,420.11 336.57 1,854.74 84.13 1,855.79 84.18 1,884.76 85.49 16,539.21 7.50 13.37 Jul-12 1,593.91 27.43 7,589.39 344.25 1,876.39 85.11 1,851.18 83.97 1,874.14 85.01 16,159.09 7.33 12.65 Aug-12 1,626.03 28.70 7,492.45 339.86 1,895.75 85.99 1,813.80 82.27 1,838.07 83.37 15,657.73 7.10 11.68 Sep-12 1,744.45 33.61 8,068.38 365.98 2,169.28 98.40 2,002.10 90.81 2,053.88 93.16 17,215.50 7.81 11.00 Oct-12 1,747.01 33.19 8,069.52 366.03 2,153.30 97.67 1,911.78 86.72 1,975.17 89.59 17,245.43 7.82 11.01 Nov-12 1,721.14 32.77 7,694.20 349.00 2,179.48 98.86 1,904.30 86.38 1,943.05 88.14 16,297.50 7.39 11.26 Dec-12 YTD Average 1,688.53 1,668.82 31.96 31.15 7,962.58 7,949.95 361.18 360.60 2,275.50 2,062.34 103.22 93.55 2,037.19 1,948.03 92.41 88.36 2,086.63 2,019.47 94.65 91.60 17,406.58 17,536.66 7.90 7.95 11.57 12.83 Jan-13 1,670.96 Au 31.11 Ag 8,049.27 Cu 366.11 Cu 2,340.27 Pb 106.15 Pb 2,033.16 Zn 92.22 Zn 2,037.98 Al 92.44 Al 17,464.77 Ni 7.92 Ni 11.86 Mo Source: London Metals Exchange, London Bouillon Market Association and London Platinum & Palladium Association. 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