power politics
advertisement
Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS VAD ÄR SÄKERHET ? WHAT IS SECURITY? Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS FUNCTIONING STAGNATION or CHOKE STABLE SUSTAINABLE YIN SAFE ORDERLY ARLANDA DYNAMIC EVOLVING YANG RISKING FREE VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS EXPLOSION or BURNOUT Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS WHAT ARE OUR VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS? POWER DECISIONS SOCIAL BASE SOCIAL HIGH POLITICS HUMAN SECURITY ECONOMIC BASE FLOW SECURITY TECHNOL BASE FUNCTIONAL NATURAL RESOURCES ECOSECURITY ECOLOGICAL HABITAT WORLD SOCIETY - EARLY GLOBALISING 0.1 % GLOBALISING COMMUNITY 14 % 5% MODERN STATES 10 % 5% Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS EXXON-MOBIL WALMART IBM CITIGROUP IKEA USA JAPAN SINGAPORE HONG KONG SWEDEN ITALY TAIWAN SOUTH KOREA (CHINA, INDIA 20%) ESTONIA HUNGARY BRAZIL THAILAND EGYPT, JORDAN (CHINA, INDIA 40%) RUSSIA SYRIA, VENEZUELA NORTH KOREA PREMODERN SOCIETIES 65 % ANGOLA (CHINA, INDIA 40%) RWANDA SUDAN ZAIRE WORLD SOCIETY - EARLY GLOBALISING Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS EXXON-MOBIL WALMART IBM CITIGROUP IKEA 0.1 % GLOBALISING COMMUNITY 14 % USA JAPAN SINGAPORE HONG KONG SWEDEN ITALY TAIWAN SOUTH KOREA (CHINA, INDIA 20%) ESTONIA HUNGARY BRAZIL GLOBALISERS COOPERATION 5% MODERN STATES 10 %CHALLENGE COLLISION TERROR SOCIAL ENGINEERING REGIONAL REFUGEES - ?2014 CONFLICT PREMODERN SOCIETIES ’9.11’.2001 MIGRATION IMPLOSION CRIME 65 % 5% THAILAND EGYPT, JORDAN DISEASE (CHINA, INDIA 40%) RUSSIA SYRIA, VENEZUELA NORTH KOREA ANGOLA (CHINA, INDIA 40%) RWANDA SUDAN ZAIRE Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS WORLD SOCIETY - EARLY GLOBALISING EXXON-MOBIL WALMART IBM CITIGROUP IKEA 0.1 % GLOBALISING COMMUNITY 14 % 5% BIG POWERS POWER POLITICS ECONOMIC POWER THAILAND MILITARY FORCE EGYPT, JORDAN (CHINA, INDIA 40%) TRANSNATIONAL PROBLEMS ZONE OF REVOLUTION PREMODERN SOCIETIES 65 % USA JAPAN POLITICAL EXTREMISM SINGAPORE HONG KONG SOCIAL PROBLEMS SWEDEN ITALY DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE TAIWAN SOUTH KOREA (CHINA, INDIA 20%) ESTONIA CORRUPTION HUNGARY CYBERPENETRATION BRAZIL DECLINE 5% MODERN STATES 10 % OLD POWERS RUSSIA MIGRATION SYRIA, VENEZUELA ORGANISED CRIME NORTH KOREA REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS ANGOLA (CHINA, INDIA 40%) RWANDA SUDAN ZAIRE Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS WHAT ARE OUR VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS? POWER DECISIONS SOCIAL BASE SOCIAL HIGH POLITICS HUMAN SECURITY ECONOMIC BASE FLOW SECURITY TECHNOL BASE FUNCTIONAL NATURAL RESOURCES ECOSECURITY ECOLOGICAL HABITAT TRANSNATIONAL NOKIA 1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES 31 R&D CENTRES, 16 COUNTRIES, 37,000 EMPLOYEES 18 FACTORIES, 10 COUNTRIES, 84,000 EMPLOYEES Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS TRANSNATIONAL NOKIA 1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES 31 R&D CENTRES, 16 COUNTRIES, 37,000 EMPLOYEES 18 FACTORIES, 10 COUNTRIES, 84,000 EMPLOYEES 160 COUNTRY MARKETS, 1.5 BILLION CUSTOMERS Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS BLUE FLOWS BLUE FLOWS 1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES - 31 ECONOMIC R&D CENTRES, 16 COUNTRIES, 37,000 EMPLOYEES - 18 TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORIES, 10 COUNTRIES, 84,000 EMPLOYEES 160 COUNTRY MARKETS, 1.5 BILLION CUSTOMERS Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS FLOWS THREATS DESIGN (Y2K) MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT (2008-09) TECHNICAL BREAK PRC ECONOMIC CRISIS ATLANTIC ECONOMIC CRISIS PANDEMIC SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY DIRECT POLITICAL CHALLENGE -Terrorism - Rogue States SYSTEMIC SABOTAGE REGIONAL INSTABILITY PANDEMIC EARTHQUAKE VOLCANOES STORMS SOLAR STORMS OIL PRICES SECURITY OF SUPPLY FRICTION - Piracy - Crime - Corruption Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS VART ÄR VI PÅ VÄG ? Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 GREATER DIVERSITY, LESS CONSENSUS RETURN RISING OF NEW ENTRENCHED POLITICS ACTORS GRAND ALIENATED ’EAST’ POWER POLITICS, INTERSTATE WAR? POWER MORE GLOBAL DECISIONS MORE TRANSNATIONAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CONNECTED STRESSES COLLAPSE ORGANISED CRIME – REVOLUTION - MIGRATION INEQUALITY - MISERY - RAGE FADING ’WEST’ INTEGRATED ELITES SATISFIED SOCIETIES SOCIAL SOCIAL 40% MISERABLE 20% POOR 20% SOCIAL BASEPOOR 20% RICH TURBULENCE SINK DEEPERSTAGNATE GET POORER GET RICHER SCARCITY GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS TURBULENCE FOOD PRICES HUNGER COMPETITION DESSICATION / INUNDATION MIGRATION BLAME MORE ECONOMIC MONEY BASE CRIME MISCHIEF ? DEPRESSION MORE DESIGN OR COLLAPSE MANAGEMENT VULNERABLE POWER ANTAGONISTIC GREATER TECHNOL BASE TECHNOLOGY FUNCTIONAL SCARCITY TURBULENCE COMMODITY PRICES LOSS - Oil, water, arable land, fish DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure SCARCITY NATURAL RESOURCES DEPLETION DEGRADATION ECOLOGICAL HABITAT TURBULENCE DISRUPTION Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 POWER POLITICS POWER DECISIONS BARRIER OPS SOCIAL SOCIAL BASE ECONOMIC BASE FLOW SECURITY TECHNOL BASE FUNCTIONAL NATURAL RESOURCES ECOPROTECTION ECOLOGICAL HABITAT Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 POWER DECISIONS AUSTERITY SOCIAL SOCIAL BASE CRIME MISCHIEF ANTAGONISTIC MEGA SABOTAGE FLOW WAR ECONOMIC BASE MISTAKES DESIGN MANAGEMENT TECHNOL BASE SCARCITY COMMODITY PRICES LOSS - Oil, water, arable land, fish FUNCTIONAL PANDEMIC NATURAL RESOURCES ECOLOGICAL HABITAT TURBULENCE DISRUPTION - Storms, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS HUR HANTERA HOTEN ? 1. BREDA 2. KOMPLEXA 3. OFÖRUTSEBARA YESTERDAYS SECURITY HORIZON Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 3. INCREASED UNPREDICTABILITY YESTERDAY – One Dimension - One Dot EXTERNAL HARMONY POLITICAL Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS TODAY’S SECURITY HORIZON THREE DIMENSIONS - Six Dots - Ten Flashpoints - ALL INTERACTING EXTERNAL TENSIONS DELIBERATE ATTACK EXTERNAL HARMONY ECONOMIC BASE INHERENT STRAIN CONCLUSION THREE POLITICAL FUNCTIONAL FAST VASTLY DOMESTIC TECHNOL INFECTIOUS HARMONY FORECASTING BASE INCREASED DISASTER SYNTHETIC (unnatural) + UNCERTAINTY LETHAL DOMESTIC TENSIONS ECOSTRESS PLANNING INSUFFICIENT ECOSTRESS ECOLOGICAL NATURAL RESOURCES DEPLETION DEGRADATION ECOSYSTEM DISRUPTION THREAT ANALYSIS - DEATH vs. SEVERITY Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS SEVERITY EXISTENCE VITAL COMFORT MORAL REMOTE POSSIBLE LIKELY HAPPENING LIKELIHOOD THREAT ANALYSIS - DEATH vs. SEVERITY Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS SEVERITY EXISTENCE VITAL COMFORT MORAL REMOTE POSSIBLE LIKELY HAPPENING LIKELIHOOD Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS PRACTICAL CONSEQUENCES visibility KNOWN THREATS FORECAST + COUNTER PLAN AND MANIPULATE SHIELD: DETER, DEFEND TRANSFORM: NEUTRALISE, CONVERT DARWIN SURPRISING THREATS REACT + DODGE UNKNOWN THREATS SURVIVE + RECOVER AGILITY SPEED, FLEXIBILITY RESILIENCE ELASTIC, ROBUST, REPAIRING Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS NEW HISTORICAL ERA - WAVES ABILITY TO MANIPULATE MATTER TECHNOLOGICAL WAVES TRANSFORM HUMAN CONDITION INFORMATION INDUSTRY AGRICULTURE GATHER-HUNT … 8000 BC Alvin Toffler: “The Third Wave.” Thomas Kuhn: “Structure of Scientific Revolutions.” Schumpeter (wavelets of industrial age) 1700 2000 TIME Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS GLOBALISATION - DEEP IMPLICATIONS MODERN ERA GLOBALISED AGE SHRINKING WORLD ECOLOGY UNLIMITED, STRONG FINITE, WEAK D + D + D HUMAN HUGE SMALL TIME SLOW FAST PRIVACY BROAD - TOP DOWN NARROW - LISTS + GATES INTIMATE CONTACT BOTTOM UP TAGS + GRIDS PERVASIVE+INTRUSIVE LIQUID WORLD ECONOMY SOCIETIES INFORMATION STATE CENTRED GLOBAL TRANSNATIONAL ROOTED CONCENTRATED FLOATING DISPERSED TIME TECHN. INFR. POWER SEGMENTED m-f 9-5 STATE + LOCAL STATE + STATE + STATE CONTINUOUS 24/7 PRIVATE + GLOBAL STATE + NEW ACTORS INTERNET GLOBALISATION - NEW SECURITY AGENDA Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS MODERN ERA GLOBALISED AGE NEW POLITICAL FAULT LINES HORISONTAL PEER COMPETITION VERTICAL ASYMMETRIC TENSIONS BROADER THREATS ONE-DIMENSIONAL THREE-DIMENSIONAL - PEER POLITICS - ASYMMETRIC POLITICS - NEW VULNERABILITIES - ECONOMIC BASE - TECHNOLOGICAL BASE - RISING ECOLOGICAL CRISIS GLOBAL VILLAGE - EDGE OF REVOLUTION Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS GNP pc ppp 000 USD GLOBALISED ELITE DAIMLER-BENZ NOKIA <1 % USA 30 SWITZ, NORWAY FLOW WORLD JAPAN 25 OLD POWERS RICH GLOBALISING 14 % 947.3 HONG KONG FINLAND ITALY TAIWAN POLITICAL EXTREMISM SOCIAL PROBLEMS SPAIN NEW ZEALAND DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE 20 SOUTH KOREA CHINA, INDIA 10% BRAZIL 15 BIG POWERS LATE MODERN (RTE) 5% POWER POLITICS 233.7 10 EARLY MODERN 15 % 891.0 ZONE 05 PREMODERN 01 ZONE OF 32 % 1,925.2 34 % 2,066.2 CORRUPTION RUSSIA BELARUS CYBERPENETRATION IRAN ECONOMIC POWER CHINA, INDIA 10% MILITARY FORCE ECUADOR VENEZUELA LIBYA, EGYPT, SYRIA CHINA, INDIA 80% OF REVOLUTION TRANSNATIONAL PROBLEMS CRIPPLING MIGRATION ANGOLA ORGANISED CRIME LAOS MISERY CONGO REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS RWANDA Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS GLOBAL POWER POLITICAL TRENDS 2012 DEPARTING GROWING ACTIVATING ? GROWING RISING GLOBAL ECOCRISIS GOOD SCARCITY TURBULENCE DETERIORATING DECLINE UNSTABLE COMPLICATING DANGEROUS DISASTER GROWING Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1949 - 2012 LORD ISMAY ON NATO 1949 KEEP RUSSIA OUT, UNITED STATES IN, AND GERMANY DOWN SITUATION TODAY US GOING OUT, RUSSIA GOING UP, AND EUROPE DOWN GLOBALISATION - NEW SECURITY AGENDA MODERN ERA Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS GLOBALISED AGE NEW POLITICAL FAULT LINES HORISONTAL PEER COMPETITION VERTICAL ASYMMETRIC TENSIONS BROADER THREATS ONE-DIMENSIONAL THREE-DIMENSIONAL - PEER POLITICS - ASYMMETRIC POLITICS - NEW VULNERABILITIES - ECONOMIC BASE - TECHNOLOGICAL BASE - RISING ECOLOGICAL CRISIS Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 RETURN OF INTERSTATE GRAND POLITICS WAR POWER MORE GLOBAL DECISIONS MORE TRANSNATIONAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CONNECTED STRESSES COLLAPSE SOCIAL SOCIAL SOCIAL BASE TURBULENCE SCARCITY FOOD PRICES HUNGER COMPETITION TURBULENCE MORE ECONOMIC MONEY BASE ? DEPRESSION MORE OR COLLAPSE VULNERABLE POWER DESSICATION / INUNDATION MIGRATION BLAME GREATER TECHNOL BASE TECHNOLOGY SCARCITY FUNCTIONAL COMMODITY PRICES LOSS - Oil, water, arable land, fish TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure SCARCITY NATURAL RESOURCES ECOLOGICAL HABITAT TURBULENCE Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 RETURN RISING OF NEW ENTRENCHED POLITICS ACTORS GRAND ALIENATED ’EAST’ POWER POLITICS POWER GLOBAL SOCIAL RESURGING MORE DECISIONS MORE AND TRANSNATIONAL GLOBAL CONNECTED POLITICAL COLLAPSE STRESSES FADING ’WEST’ POWER POLITICS SOCIAL SOCIAL 40% MISERABLE 20% POOR 20% POOR 20% RICH SOCIAL BASE BARRIER OPS TURBULENCE SINK DEEPERSTAGNATE GET POORER GET RICHER MORE ECONOMIC MONEY BASE CRIME MISCHIEF POWERFUL BUT MORE DESIGN VULNERABLE GREATER (ECON – S&T FLOW SECURITY TOOLS MANAGEMENT VULNERABLE POWER ANTAGONISTIC TECHNOL BASE TECHNOLOGY FUNCTIONAL SCARCITY NATURAL RESOURCES DEPLETION DEEPENING DEGRADATION ECOPROTECTION ECOLOGICAL CRISIS ECOLOGICAL HABITAT TURBULENCE DISRUPTION Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS BROAD CHALLENGES Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS HOW SHOULD WE THINK SECURITY? 1. HOLISTIC 2. SYNERGISTIC 3. UNCERTAIN Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS FOUNDATIONS OF OUR SECURITY ELITE POLITICS ECONOMIC BASE SOCIAL FUNCTIONAL STRUCTURAL STABILITY TECHNOL BASE ECOLOGICAL NATURAL RESOURCES HABITAT DEEP TRENDS Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS GRAND POLITICS LESS CONSENSUS POWER POLITICS INTERSTATE WARS MEGA SABOTAGE RISING ’EAST’ ELITEFADING ENTRENCHED ELITE ALIENATED NEW ’WEST’ EXTERNAL DIVERSITY GLOBAL SOCIAL ACTORS INTEGRATION HARMONY AND TRANSNATIONAL ORGANISED CRIME REVOLUTION MIGRATION STRUCTURAL GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS GREATER INEQUALITY MISERY , FRUSTRATION CYBER STUXNET 2010 NORWAY 2010, ESTONIA 2007 KINETIIC 9.11 MADRID LONDON POLITICAL COLLAPSE GLOBAL MORE CLASS SOCIAL CONNECTED TENSIONS 20% POOR 20% RICH DOMESTIC GET RICHER 20% POOR GET POORER HARMONY DOMESTIC 40% MISERABLE STAGNATE TURBULENCE SINK DEEPER SCARCITY ? MORE MORE VULNERABLE POWER FUNCTIONAL NEGLECT INHERENT GREATER TECHNOL TECHNOLOGY BASE TURBULENCE ECOLOGICAL TURBULENCE DESERTIFICATION REFUGEES SATISFIED SOCIETIES INTEGRATED ELITES POWERFUL TOOLS ECOLOGICAL PRICE ANTAGONISTIC MORECRIME ECONOMIC MISCHIEF MONEY BASE SCARCITY FOOD PRICES HUNGER FUNCTIONAL NATURAL DEPLETION DISRUPTION ECOSYSTEM DEEPENING RESOURCES ECOLOGICAL CRISIS DEGRADATION DESIGN Y2K MANAGEMENT WALL STR 2008-09 PANDEMIC TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure SCARCITY PRICES – Oil, minerals AVAILABILITY – Oil, Water, Arable land, fish DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS KINETIIC 9.11 MADRID LONDON CYBER STUXNET 2010 NORWAY 2010, ESTONIA 2007 GRAND POLITICS LESS CONSENSUS POWER POLITICS INTERSTATE WARS RISING ’EAST’FADING ELITE ENTRENCHED GLOBAL SOCIAL AND ALIENATED NEW ’WEST’ EXTERNAL DIVERSITY ELITE POLITICAL ACTORS COLLAPSE HARMONY ANTAGONISTIC INTEGRATION TRANSNATIONAL ORGANISED CRIME REVOLUTION MIGRATION MORE MORE VULNERABLE POWER FUNCTIONAL GLOBAL MORE CLASS SOCIAL CONNECTED TENSIONS 20% POOR 20% RICH DOMESTIC GET RICHER 20% POOR GET POORER HARMONY DOMESTIC 40% MISERABLE STAGNATE TURBULENCE SINK DEEPER CONCLUSION ONE STRUCTURAL GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS GREATER INEQUALITY MISERY , FRUSTRATION FUNCTIONAL MORECRIME ECONOMIC MISCHIEF MONEY BASE INHERENT GREATER TECHNOL TECHNOLOGY BASE HOLISTIC PERSPECTIVE NO TUNNEL SCARCITY ECOLOGICAL TURBULENCE DESERTIFICATION REFUGEES DESIGN Y2K MANAGEMENT WALL STR 2008-09 VISION TURBULENCE SCARCITY FOOD PRICES HUNGER SATISFIED SOCIETIES INTEGRATED ELITES POWERFUL TOOLS ECOLOGICAL PRICE NATURAL DEPLETION DISRUPTION ECOSYSTEM DEEPENING RESOURCES ECOLOGICAL CRISIS DEGRADATION TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure SCARCITY PRICES – Oil, minerals AVAILABILITY – Oil, Water, Arable land, fish Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS EMERGING THREAT ENVIRONMENT 2. INCREASED SYNERGIES - TRANSDIMENSIONAL RICOCHETS EXTERNAL HARMONY ECONOMIC BASE POLITICAL FUNCTIONAL CONCLUSION TWO DOMESTIC HARMONY TECHNOL BASE SYNERGISTIC PERSPECTIVE AWARE OF LATERAL LEAPS INTEGRATED RESPONSE ECOLOGICAL NATURAL RESOURCES ECOSYSTEM PANDEMIC Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS WHERE ARE WE ? Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS POLITICAL CHALLENGES Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1. WHAT IS THE MILITARY? 2. WHERE ARE WE NOW? 3. WHERE ARE WE GOING? 4. PRIORITIES Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS UNIQUE MILITARY CAPABILITY - NATO SCC 07.08 CORE HIGH QUALITY VIOLENCE 1.1. MASSIVE VIOLENCE: National Defence Power Projection HIC HIC (deter, defend) (deter,enforce) 1.2. NARROW VIOLENCE: Surgical Violence Supporting Violence SUR EVA (hunt+kill, intercept, rescue) (evacuation) 1.3. RESTRAINED VIOLENCE: Global Social Engineering BOG Policing POL (PSO, MASD) (asset protection, barriers, flows) DERIVATIVE 2.1. INFLUENCE - PSYCHOLOGICAL SPINOFFS OF MILITARY VIOLENCE DETER: COERCE: ATTRACT: Stick - threaten pain Stick - apply pain Carrot - being useful FPS + VIT (policing, show of force) VIT (gunboat diplomacy) FPS (burden sharing, high tech) 2.2. FUNCTIONAL - IMPROVISED SUPPORT FOR SOCIETY ECONOMIC C4SIR: SECURITY: WORKERS: LOGISTICS: HIGH TECH: JAS Gripen If civil infrastructure damaged (ATC) DEF MILITARY NOT DO THISKatrina) If civilSHOULD police overwhelmed (Hurricane labour for crises (Katrina, China quake, Oil spills) - BUT IFOrganised NOTHING ELSE IS AROUND... Transport & logistics for emergencies (Nokia, Gudrun) Specialised capabilitiesGudrun, (Drug interdiction Katrina, Chinese Earthquake, Nokia +surveillance, etc.) Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1. WHAT IS THE MILITARY? 2. WHERE ARE WE NOW? 3. WHERE ARE WE GOING? 4. PRIORITIES Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS DECAPITATION IS IN INTERSTATE WAR IS RETURNING STABILISATION AND RECONSTRUCTION IS OVER HUMAN SECURITY PEACE ENFORCEMENT COIN STATE BUILDING COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH ETC Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1. WHAT IS THE MILITARY? 2. WHERE ARE WE NOW? 3. WHERE ARE WE GOING? 4. PRIORITIES Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 3.1. NEW MISSIONS Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 3.2. NEW DOMESTIC PRECONDITIONS Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1. AUSTERITY 2. DENIAL Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 3.3. INCREASED UNCERTAINTY Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1. WHAT IS THE MILITARY? 2. WHERE ARE WE NOW? 3. WHERE ARE WE GOING? 4. PRIORITIES Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS GLOBAL POWER POLITICAL SITUATION 2013 UP RISING GLOBAL ECOCRISIS SCARCITY TURBULENCE UNSTABLE GLOBAL POWER POLITICAL SITUATION 2013 Global Hard partner Recession Military dominance But one–war Focus Asia Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS OUT UP Soft grandmother Decline Military void Strategic national Eurostrategic void Stupid defence DOWN Continental Hard stranger Income Military buildup Strategic nuclear Eurostrategic (Iskander+) Conventional (2012-2022 MANAGING THE BIG PICTURE Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET? 2. VAR ÄR VI NU? 2.1. SOCIALA DIMENSIONEN 2.2. 2.3. FUNKTIONELLA DIMENSIONEN ECOLOGISKA DIMENSIONEN 3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER 4. HUR HANTERA EXPLOSIV KOMPLEXITET? MANAGING THE BIG PICTURE Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET? 2. VAR ÄR VI NU? 2.1. SOCIALA DIMENSIONEN 2.2. 2.3. FUNKTIONELLA DIMENSIONEN ECOLOGISKA DIMENSIONEN 3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER 4. HUR HANTERA EXPLOSIV KOMPLEXITET? Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS WHAT ARE OUR VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS? POWER DECISIONS SOCIAL BASE SOCIAL HIGH POLITICS HUMAN SECURITY ECONOMIC BASE FLOW SECURITY TECHNOL BASE FUNCTIONAL NATURAL RESOURCES ECOSECURITY ECOLOGICAL HABITAT GLOBAL POWER POLITICAL SITUATION 2007 HEALTHY + PRESENT BOOMING VOID GROWING WEAK GLOBAL ECOCRISIS GOOD SCARCITY TURBULENCE DETERIORATING HEALTHY UNSTABLE COMPLICATING DANGEROUS DISASTER GROWING Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1949 - 2012 LORD ISMAY ON NATO 1949 KEEP RUSSIA OUT, UNITED STATES IN, AND GERMANY DOWN SITUATION TODAY US GOING OUT, RUSSIA GOING UP, AND EUROPE DOWN MANAGING THE BIG PICTURE Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET? 2. VAR ÄR VI NU? 2.1. SOCIALA DIMENSIONEN 2.2. 2.3. FUNKTIONELLA DIMENSIONEN ECOLOGISKA DIMENSIONEN 3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER 4. HUR HANTERA EXPLOSIV KOMPLEXITET? MANAGING THE BIG PICTURE Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET? 2. VAR ÄR VI NU? 2.1. SOCIALA DIMENSIONEN 2.2. 2.3. FUNKTIONELLA DIMENSIONEN ECOLOGISKA DIMENSIONEN 3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER 4. HUR HANTERA EXPLOSIV KOMPLEXITET? Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS WHAT ARE OUR VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS? POWER DECISIONS SOCIAL BASE SOCIAL HIGH POLITICS HUMAN SECURITY ECONOMIC BASE FLOW SECURITY TECHNOL BASE FUNCTIONAL NATURAL RESOURCES ECOSECURITY ECOLOGICAL HABITAT Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS THE ECOLOGICAL CRISIS DEPLETION non-renewable resources oil, gas, minerals DEGRADATION of regional biospheres fish, water, arable land DISRUPTION of global ecosystem climate change ECOSECURITY – TRENDS TO 2020 1. Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS GLOBAL ECOLOGICAL CRISIS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW DEPLETION – OIL, GAS + DEGRADATION – WATER, ARABLE LAND, FISH + DISRUPTION – CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREMES 2. TWO BIG PROBLEMS SCARCITY TURBULENCE 3. ECOLOGICAL CONCERNS WILL DOMINATE AGENDA MORE DOMESTIC - PAIN AND ANGER – VOTERS AND CONSUMERS GRAND POLITICS 1 – ECOPROTECTION GRAND POLITICS 2 – ECOEXPLOITATION 4. LEGITIMACY INCREASINGLY DEFINED IN ECOLOGICAL TERMS SOCIAL CONTRACT = ECOLOGICAL CONTRACT 5. CONFLICTS INCREASINGLY FOCUS ON ECOLOGICAL ISSUES TENSION ECONOMIC GROWTH – SUSTAINED ECOLOGY CONFLICT SOVEREIGNTY - ECOPROTECTION Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS THE AGENDA 1. SCIENTIFIC 1.1. UNDERSTAND UNDERSTAND WHAT IS HAPPENING PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONSENSUS – IPCC 1.2. ADAPT DEVELOP RESILIENCE 1.3. SOLVE PROPOSE SOLUTIONS HELP DEVELOP ECOFRIENDLY TECHNOLOGY 2. POLITICAL 2.1. SOFT - MULTILATERAL AGENDA DELIMITATION AND OWNERSHIP – UNCLOS II REGULATE OUR BEHAVIOUR - Kyoto, Copenhagen GOVERNANCE – including of frustration 2.2. ADAPTIVE – SYSTEMIC AGENDA ADJUST FUNCTIONAL BASE DEEPENING CRISIS 3. MILITARY 3.1. GREEN - POLICE AGENDA OVERSEE ECOLOGICAL RULES ENFORCE RULES MANAGE CONFRONTATIONS 3.2.. BLACK – ZERO-SUM AGENDA DEFEND ECOLOGICAL ASSETS CONQUER ECOLOGICAL ASSETS MANAGING THE BIG PICTURE Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET? 2. VAR ÄR VI NU? 2.1. SOCIALA DIMENSIONEN 2.2. 2.3. FUNKTIONELLA DIMENSIONEN ECOLOGISKA DIMENSIONEN 3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER 4. HUR HANTERA EXPLOSIV KOMPLEXITET? MANAGING THE BIG PICTURE Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET? 2. VAR ÄR VI NU? 2.1. SOCIALA DIMENSIONEN 2.2. 2.3. FUNKTIONELLA DIMENSIONEN ECOLOGISKA DIMENSIONEN 3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER 4. HUR HANTERA EXPLOSIV KOMPLEXITET? Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS NORDIC REGIONAL IMPACT 1. RUSSIAN MILITARY PRESSURE / CONFRONTATION WESTPHALIAN WORLDVIEW – ZERO SUM COMPETITION NORDIC-BALTIC DICTATORSIP WITH RAW MATERIAL REVENUES MILITARY CRISES RUSSIA IS RETURNING DELIBERATE RUSSIAN HARD PRESSURE DOMESTIC INSTABILITY MILITARY BUILDUP – EUROSTRATEGIC NUCLEAR + CONVENTIONAL 2. ARCTIC TENSIONS ARCTIC REGULATION STRATEGIC NUCLEAR – RUSSIAN SSBN FLEET RETURNING ARCTIC IS ACTIVATING ECOLOGICAL ECONOMIC – CONTROL OVER ARCTIC NATURAL RESOURCES DISASTERS ECOLOGICAL – A) REGULATION B) CATASTROPHES AND RESPONSIBILITY ARCTIC POL-MIL CRISES 3. EUROPE DECLINING EUROPEAN WEAKNESS LIBERAL ORDER FADING SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CONSEQUENCE EUROPEAN INSTABILITY ECONOMIC DECLINE / COLLAPSE 4. GREATER ISOLATION EU – WEAKER US – SHIFT TO ASIA LESS HELP SECURITY FOCUS 2020 Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS GRAND POLITICS LESS CONSENSUS POWER POLITICS INTERSTATE WARS TRANSNATIONAL ORGANISED CRIME REVOLUTION MIGRATION STRUCTURAL GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS GREATER INEQUALITY MISERY , FRUSTRATION GLOBAL POWER POLITICS MEGA ELITE SOCIAL - POLITICAL EXTERNAL SABOTAGE INTEGRATION DIVERSITY GLOBAL COLLAPSE HARMONY GLOBAL MORE CLASSDECAPITATION BARRIER CONNECTED SOCIAL TENSIONS OPS OPS FUNCTIONAL MORE ECONOMIC MONEY BASE MORE FLOW SECURITY VULNERABLE POWER FUNCTIONAL SATISFIED SOCIETIES NEGLECT INTEGRATED ELITES POWERFUL TOOLS ECOLOGICAL PRICE GREATER TECHNOL TECHNOLOGY BASE DOMESTIC DOMESTIC HARMONY TURBULENCE DOMESTIC STABILITY PANDEMIC SCARCITY TURBULENCE ECOPROTECTION SCARCITY FOOD PRICES HUNGER ECOLOGICAL TURBULENCE DESERTIFICATION REFUGEES NATURAL ECOCOMPETITION DEPLETION DISRUPTION ECOSYSTEM DEEPENING RESOURCES ECOLOGICAL CRISIS DEGRADATION TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure SCARCITY PRICES – Oil, minerals AVAILABILITY – Oil, Water, Arable land, fish Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS NEW HISTORICAL ERA - WAVES ABILITY TO MANIPULATE MATTER INFORMATION INDUSTRY ? AGRICULTURE ? GATHER-HUNT … 8000 BC 1700 2000 TIME PHENOMENOLOGY OF THE LIQUID WORLD Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS FADING DICHOTOMIES PEACE DOMESTIC NEAR BUSINESS CIVIL NATIONAL WAR FOREIGN FAR POLITICS MILITARY MULTINATIONAL SHIFTING BORDERS ’WEST’ PUBLIC STATE GOVT PRIVACY LIBERTY NATIONAL > > > > > > > OECD + RTE PRIVATE INDIVIDUAL NGO SURVEILLANCE CONTROL TRANSNATIONAL Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS VÅR FRAMTID SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011 GOOD Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS BAD GREAT POWER POLITICS LITTLE POWER POLITICS 1995 DAYTON 1990 END OF HISTORY 1992 BALKANS TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES DOMESTIC STABILITY UGLY SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011 GOOD Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS BAD GREAT POWER POLITICS LITTLE POWER POLITICS 1995 DAYTON 1990 END OF HISTORY TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES DOMESTIC STABILITY UGLY SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011 GOOD Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS BAD UGLY GREAT POWER POLITICS LITTLE POWER POLITICS 1995 DAYTON 1990 END OF HISTORY TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES 2001 9.11 DOMESTIC STABILITY SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011 GOOD Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS BAD UGLY GREAT POWER POLITICS LITTLE POWER POLITICS 1995 DAYTON 1990 END OF HISTORY TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES 2001 GLOBAL SOCIAL ENGINEERING DOMESTIC STABILITY 2001 9.11 SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011 GOOD Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS BAD UGLY GREAT POWER POLITICS LITTLE POWER POLITICS 1995 DAYTON 1990 END OF HISTORY TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES 2001 2006 2010 GLOBAL SOCIAL GLOBAL SOCIAL IRAQ ENGINEERING ENGINEERING AFPAK DOMESTIC STABILITY 2001 9.11 SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011 GOOD Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS BAD UGLY GREAT POWER POLITICS LITTLE POWER POLITICS 1995 DAYTON TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES 2010 IRAQ AFPAK DOMESTIC STABILITY 2001 9.11 SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011 GOOD Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS BAD UGLY GREAT POWER POLITICS 2007… RUSSIA PRC + RETURN OF INTER-STATE WAR? ASIA COLLAPSE OF THE EU? USELESS 2001 9.11 SHADOW WAR LITTLE POWER POLITICS 1995 DAYTON 2011… EU BANKRUPT 2012 RETURN OF TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES HISTORY 2010 IRAQ AFPAK DOMESTIC STABILITY 2011… LONDON EU, US… END OF THE LIBERAL AGE? PHENOMENOLOGY OF NEW ENVIRONMENT Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS WHAT WE SEE DEEP TRENDS SHRINKING WORLD HUMAN, ECOLOGICAL ERODING STRUCTURES STATE TO TRANSNATIONAL MORE HUMAN POWER SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMY – BUT!! POORER RICH STATES AGE OF AUSTERITY SECURITY ENVIRONMENT NEW POLITICAL FAULT LINES FROM PEER-PEER TO PEER-PEER-POOR BROADER THREATS BROAD - SYNTHETIC - FAST WHAT IT MEANS LESS NATURAL RESOURCES MORE ECOTURBULENCE MORE TENSE MORE COMPLEX MORE VOLATILE LESS PREDICTABLE PHENOMENOLOGY OF NEW ENVIRONMENT Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS WHAT WE SEE GLOBAL MEGATRENDS SHRINKING WORLD HUMAN, ECOLOGICAL LIQUID WORLD STATE TO TRANSNATIONAL MORE HUMAN POWER SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMY – BUT!! DECLINING RICH STATES AGE OF AUSTERITY GLOBAL SOCIAL ENGINEERING – LOSING STRATEGYTomas Ries – ISS / FHS Change 2005-2008 Sierra Leone Bosnia Venezuela Dominican Republic Paraguay Ukraine Morocco Bahrain Yemen Ivory Coast Colombia Rwanda Liberia Guinea Afghanistan Kenya Sudan Burma Ethiopia Iraq Bangladesh Dem. Rep. of the Congo Haiti North Korea Zimbabwe Nigeria Pakistan Somalia Central African Republic Chad 10.00 10.20 14.00 16.50 16.90 19.10 21.80 26.60 1.60 3.50 5.80 7.50 7.70 -9.90 -9.20 -8.70 -8.30 -8.10 -7.80 -5.40 -3.80 -3.40 -2.60 -2.60 -19.10 -15.50 -14.70 -21.40 -11.70 -11.30 Pop. (m) 80 160 MILLION 80 400 1,200 MILLION 800 Source: Fund for Peace: Failed States Index 2009 Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS GLOBAL VILLAGE - EDGE OF REVOLUTION GNP pc ppp 000 USD GLOBALISED ELITE DAIMLER-BENZ NOKIA <1 % USA 30 SWITZ, NORWAY JAPAN 25 age m<5 RICH GLOBALISING maln 0.6% 0% 14 % 78947.3 ser man 69% 25% ind 7% agr 2% 20 HONG KONG FINLAND ITALY TAIWAN SPAIN NEW ZEALAND SOUTH KOREA CHINA, INDIA 10% 15 LATE MODERN (RTE) 5% CZECH REP ESTONIA BRAZIL CHINA, INDIA 10% 233.7 10 EARLY MODERN 15 % PREMODERN 46 18% 40% 32 % 1,925.2 RUSSIA VENEZUELA SYRIA CHINA, INDIA 80% 891.0 05 01 34 % 2,066.2 39% 9% 14% 39% ANGOLA LAOS CONGO RWANDA Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 GREATER DIVERSITY, LESS CONSENSUS RETURN RISING OF NEW ENTRENCHED POLITICS ACTORS GRAND ALIENATED ’EAST’ POWER POLITICS, INTERSTATE WAR? POWER RESURGING MORE GLOBAL DECISIONS MORE TRANSNATIONAL GLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CONNECTED STRESSES COLLAPSE POWER POLITICS ORGANISED CRIME – REVOLUTION - MIGRATION INEQUALITY - MISERY - RAGE SOCIAL MEGA SABOTAGE FOOD PRICES HUNGER COMPETITION MORE ECONOMIC MONEY BASE MISTAKES DEPRESSION POWERFUL BUT MORE DESIGN CRIME TOOLS OR COLLAPSE MANAGEMENT MISCHIEF VULNERABLE POWER VULNERABLE GREATER (ECON – S&T TECHNOL BASE TECHNOLOGY UNDERSTANDING TOOLS NATURAL RESOURCES DEEPENING DEGRADATION ECOLOGICAL CRISIS ECOLOGICAL HABITAT TURBULENCE DESSICATION / INUNDATION MIGRATION BLAME DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure PANDEMIC DEPLETION TURBULENCE TURBULENCE SCARCITY ECOLOGICAL PRICE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS TOOLS ANTAGONISTIC FUNCTIONAL COMMODITY PRICES LOSS - Oil, water, arable land, fish INTEGRATED ELITES SATISFIED SOCIETIES SOCIAL 40% MISERABLE 20% POOR 20% SOCIAL BASEPOOR 20% RICH TURBULENCE SINK DEEPERSTAGNATE GET POORER GET RICHER SCARCITY SCARCITY FADING ’WEST’ DISRUPTION Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS DEEP TRENDS TO 2030 GREATER DIVERSITY, LESS CONSENSUS NEW ACTORS POWER POLITICS, INTERSTATE WAR? RETURN OF ENTRENCHED POWER RISING GRAND POLITICS ALIENATED DECISIONS ’EAST’ FADING ’WEST’ MORE MORE TRANSNATIONAL CONNECTED STRESSES SOCIAL BASE SOCIAL 20% POOR 20% RICH 20% POOR 40% MISERY TURBULENCE SINK DEEPER STAGNATE GET RICHER GET POORER ORGANISED CRIME – REVOLUTION - MIGRATION INEQUALITY - MISERY - RAGE SOCIAL MORE ECONOMIC MONEYBASE CRIME MISCHIEF DESIGN MORE MANAGEMENT VULNERABLE POWER ANTAGONISTIC GREATER TECHNOL BASE TECHNOLOGY FUNCTIONAL SCARCITY NATURAL RESOURCES DEPLETION DEGRADATION HABITAT ECOLOGICAL TURBULENCE DISRUPTION GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS GREEN FLOWS Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS THREE DIMENSIONS OF SECURITY SYNERGY - TRANSDIMENSIONAL RICOCHETS 15.3 EU 16.3 Volvo PB - Rad adv Jap imp - one week 24.3 Exports US, EU, Hong Kong, S;pore, Australia, CDA GLOBAL CASCADES - Global supply chain shortages - Export chokes from rad fears - Global financial markets EXTERNAL HARMONY - Global currency market 12.3 Financial - Banking system (183 bn USD) - Value of Yen 4% up - Insurance 35bn USD (quake alone) FUNCTIONAL - ATM’s crash (14 hours) ECONOMIC BASE POLITICAL NE Japan 10,000+ dead 16,000+ missing 350,000 homeless 1.4 m hh no water 2 m hh no power DOMESTIC HARMONY TECHNOL BASE Radiation 80,000 evacuated 24.3 Tokyo (13m) - bottled water lack 14.3 Production - hobbled to end April - 20% global electronics - cars 17.3 G7 Emerg Summit ECOLOGICAL NATURAL RESOURCES Destroyed Infrastructure - est cost 197-310 bn USD (excl economic losses) - 5 years to rebuild Fukushima Daiichi (240 km N Tokyo) - 20% national electr power - 20% Tokyo electr power (Tokyo area =40% nat’l econ output) - W Jap diff electr freq = cannot backup Maj power shortages exp 3-5 months ECOSYSTEM Friday 11.3 NE Japan 9.0 earthquake + tsunami THREE DIMENSIONS OF SECURITY Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS JAPAN 11.3 Fri 9.0 Earthquake off NE Japan followed by massive Tsunami > 10,000 dead, 16,000 missing, 350,000 homeless (24.3), 2m households without power, 1.4m without water 80,000 evacuated from Fukushima area, 450,000 evacuated from quake and Tsunami > Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant critically damaged (240 km N of Tokyo) > Tokyo area (40% national economic output) loses 20% electric power (W Jap diff power freq so cannot replace) > 20% national electrical power supply lost. Severe power shortages expected to last 3-5 months 13.3 Jap govt est direct infr damages 197-310 bn USD. (310 bn = 6% Jap GDP) (Libya nfz 4 mnths est 1bn USD) Does not include losses in economic activity from power shortages and impact of Fukushima radiation Infrastructure reconstruction will take at least 5 years (power, road, rail, ports) Initially est. insurance cost of quake alone (excl tsunami and radiation) 35 bn USD (= total 2010 catastr loss) 14.3 Japan Central Bank lines up 183 bn USD to stabilise banking system. 15.3 Value of Yen spikes 4% against USD, Japanese stock market continues to sink 15.3 EU advises members to check radiation levels in imports from Japan 15-16.3 US stock market plunges but revives 16.3 Wed Japanese ATM’s break down across Japan. All of them function again on Thursday. 16.3 Japanese industry warns that power shortages and transport difficulties hobble production to end April - Japan prod 14% global computers, consumer electronics and communications, 20% semiconductors > pushes up prices for all products globally - cars and subcomponents for other car brands 16.3 Volvo PV reports lack of deliveries from Japan will stop production in one week 17.3 G7 emergency meeeting to adress Japanese economy and the global currency market 17.3 Explosions continue at Fukushima 24.3 Thu Tokyo (pop 13 m) running out of bottled water amid fears tap war radioactive Milk and vegetables from NE also reported high rad levels. 24.3 US, Hong Kong, S:pore, Australia, Canada restrict food imports from Japan 24.3 Shipping industry reports some merchant vessels avoiding Tokyo port due to rad concerns Global Functional Ripple Effects - Japanese production crippled (all 12 Toyota plants shut = 74m USD profits lost p/d) - Global supply chains disrupted - Japanese exports affected by fears of radioactive contamination Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS WHAT IS THE MILITARY? CORE FUNCTION AND DERIVED UTILITY Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS UNIQUE MILITARY CAPABILITY - NATO SCC 07.08 CORE HIGH QUALITY VIOLENCE 1.1. MASSIVE VIOLENCE: National Defence Power Projection HIC HIC (deter, defend) (deter,enforce) 1.2. NARROW VIOLENCE: Surgical Violence Supporting Violence SUR EVA (hunt+kill, intercept, rescue) (evacuation) 1.3. RESTRAINED VIOLENCE: Global Social Engineering BOG Policing POL (PSO, MASD) (asset protection, barriers, flows) DERIVATIVE 2.1. INFLUENCE - PSYCHOLOGICAL SPINOFFS OF MILITARY VIOLENCE DETER: COERCE: ATTRACT: Stick - threaten pain Stick - apply pain Carrot - being useful FPS + VIT (policing, show of force) VIT (gunboat diplomacy) FPS (burden sharing, high tech) 2.2. FUNCTIONAL - IMPROVISED SUPPORT FOR SOCIETY ECONOMIC JAS Gripen C4SIR: If civilSHOULD infrastructureNOT damaged MILITARY DO(ATC) THIS DEF SECURITY: If civil police overwhelmed (Hurricane Katrina) ORGANISATION +- PERSONNEL: Organised labour crises (Katrina, China quake, Oil spills) BUT IF NOTHING ELSE IS for AROUND... LOGISTICS: Transport & logistics for emergencies (Nokia, Gudrun) Earthquake, Nokia +surveillance, etc.) HIGH TECH: Katrina, Chinese Specialised capabilitiesGudrun, (Drug interdiction CURRENT SECURITY PRIORITIES Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 0.1 % GLOBALISING COMMUNITY 14 % 5% 7. FLOW SECURITY 6. SOCIETAL SUPPORT 5. ECOPROTECTION 4. BARRIER OPS MODERN STATES 10 % 5% PREMODERN SOCIETIES 65 % 3. HIC DETERRENCE 2. COUNTER TERRORISM 1. SOCIAL ENGINEERING TOMORROW’S SECURITY NEEDS 0.1 % GLOBALISING COMMUNITY 14 % 5% MODERN STATES 10 % 5% PREMODERN SOCIETIES 65 % Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS PMC SECURITY AGENDA 2020 Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS GLOBAL DECAPITATION Destroying hostile transnational networks Global - Ongoing – Top priority, US and selected partners BARRIERS Shielding the rich from the global poor Rich/Poor fringes - Emerging - Rising need POWER POLITICS Military confrontations between major states Asia - Ongoing preparations – Top priority, US and Asian partners Europe - Ignored – High priority in ten years FLOW SECURITY Optimising and protecting our functional life systems Global - Emerging – Top priority, all globalisers ECOSECURITY Policing econorms / Defending or conquering ecoassets Global - Emerging slowly - Top long-term priority DOMESTIC SECURITY Managing internal social disruption (and decline?) Home - Emerging slowly – Potentially serious priority SOCIAL ENGINEERING Reforming the poor world Global - Phasing out – Low priority SOCIETAL SUPPORT Assisting society deal with functional catastrophes Home - Emerging – Potentially serious priority Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS 1949 - 2012 US OUT RUSSIA UP EUROPÉ DOWN Global power Hard brother Economic crisis Domestic division Continental power Hard stranger Economic income Domestic instability Soft power Soft grandmother Economic crisis Domestic decline Military dominance But one–war Focus Asia Military buildup Strategic nuclear Eurostrategic (Iskander+) Conventional (2012-2022 Military decline Strategic national Eurostrategic void Stupid defence Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS PMC SECURITY AGENDA 2020 DECAPITATION Global Ongoing Top priority US + select BARRIERS Rich fringe Ongoing Rising need All globalisers INTERSTATE WAR Asia Preparations Top priority US + Asians Europe Emerging Ignored ? Global Emerging Top priority All globalisers Global Emerging ? Home Emerging Pot. serious National SOCIETAL SUPPORT Home Emerging Pot. serious National / Regional SOCIAL ENGINEERS Phasing out Low priority Regionals FLOW SECURITY ECOSECURITY DOMESTIC ORDER Global
