Demographic research and analysis by Clifford A. Grammich; design by Eileen La Russo
Window on the World
Life Spans of
Today’s Humans
Will Transform
the Nations
Total fertility rate
6
5
4
3
2
Replacement fertility rate (2.1)
1950
Brazil
1980
China
Germany
India
Interactive Graphic
2010
Nigeria
Scan the code with your smartphone to
view global and national demographic trends
through 2050.
Also available at www.randreview.org/online/
United States
E x cerpted
from
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W I N T E R
Greater than 60%
60% to 30%
30% to 10%
2010–2050
SOURCES—For all illustrations on this spread: United Nations Population
Division, World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision, medium variant. For
map only: Global Demographic Change and Its Implications for Military Power,
Libicki et al., RAND/MG-1091-AF, 2011, www.rand.org/t/MG1091. For only
Taiwan on the map: United States Census Bureau, International Data Base.
2 0 1 1 – 2 0 1 2
www . rand . org
10% to 0%
0% to –10%
Below –10%
2050
2010
60
18
55
2030
2050
17.2
16
50
45
40
35
0
2010
Brazil
2020
China
2030
Germany
India
2040
Nigeria
12
9.6
10
8
7.2
6.5
6
4
2.0
2
0.5
Brazil
China
Germany
India
United States
Even in Brazil, India, and the United States, despite their
growing working-age populations through 2050, the people of
working age will account for declining fractions of the national
populations by then because of their longer life spans.
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14
0
2050
FEWER WORKERS IN RELATION TO ELDERS
Fertility Falls
From 1950 through 2010, fertility rates fell sharply in most
major countries, with the United States as a notable exception
since 1980.
Growths and Declines of Working-Age Populations, 2010–2030
Number of persons 85+
for every 100 persons 20–59
7
0
WORKERS OF THE
WORLD SHIFT
The working-age
populations of 2030 have
already been born. In that
year, the populations of
people between the ages
of 20 and 59 will be larger
in many countries than they
were in 2010 but smaller in
several important others.
1950–2010
1
2010–2030
Persons 20–59 as a percentage of the
total population
Because of the inexorable power
of demographics to shape the future, much
about the story of human life on earth through 2050
has already been determined: births through 2010,
working-age populations in 2030, and the elderly in
2050. The three figures that accompany the world
map focus on the three most populous nations
(China, India, and the United States) and the most
populous nations of Africa, Latin America, and
Western Europe (Nigeria, Brazil, and Germany).
E x cerpted
Nigeria
United
States
The Rise of the oldest old
In many countries, the skyrocketing populations of those
85 and older will have far fewer working-age people per
capita on whom to depend.
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