23.06.09
Environmental
Sensitivities
David Howard
Brighid Moran,
Nick Hughes, Gabrial Anandarajah,
Jeanette Whitaker, Joey Talbot, Ruth Watts,
Richard Wadsworth & Brenda Howard
Socio-Environmental Scenario
(SES) Variants
ƒ NIMBY
- Maintaining status quo
ƒ ECO
- Concern over impacts
ƒ DREAD
- Fear of unknown technology
…all meet the 80% reductions target
Additional Constraints
NIMBY
Nuclear
DREAD
8
~
Ï
Fossil fuel price
Coal CCS
ECO
~
8
~
8
Hydrogen
Wind
Offshore
~
Onshore
8
~
8
Biofuels 8
Imports
Bioenergy
Crops
~
Crops
Marine
Barrage
8
~
Barrage
8
Tidal stream
& wave
~
Electricity Generation 2050
2500
Wind
600
2000
1500
400
1000
300
PJ
Nuclear
TWh
500
200
500
Coal
CCS
100
0
0
LC
NIMBY
ECO
DREAD
Coal
Coal CCS
Gas
Gas CCS
Nuclear
Oil
Wind
Biowaste
Imports
Marine
Solar PV
Storage
Hydro
Installed capacity 2050
200
150
GW
Wind
100
Nuclear
50
Gas
0
LC
Coal
Nuclear
Biowaste & others
NIMBY
Coal CCS
Oil
Imports
ECO
Gas
Hydro
Marine
DREAD
Gas CCS
Wind
Storage
CO2 emissions in 2050
Transport
Services
120
Industry
Million t CO2
100
80
60
40
20
0
LC
Electricity
Upstream
Agriculture
CO2 by sector
NIMBY
Electricity
Hydrogen
ECO
Industry
Residential
DREAD
Services
Transport
Welfare
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
0
-10
B £(2000)
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
LC
NIMBY
ECO
DREAD
Change in Consumer and Producer Surplus
2040
2045
2050
Key Messages
SES Variants
ƒ Public concern about the
environment is a key driver
ƒ Higher costs (and lower
likelihood) are expected
ƒ Solutions are not always obvious
Environmental Pressures
Assessment
ƒ Core Scenarios
ƒ Comprehensive yet limited
ƒ Pressures not impacts
Environmental Pressures
from Core Scenarios
ƒ Atmospheric
emissions
(CO2, CH4, CO, N2O,
NOX, PM10, SO2 &
radioactivity)
ƒ Land take
ƒ Water
But..
ƒ Operational
phase
ƒ Existing
technology
ƒ No spatial
component
Atmospheric emissions
EU Large
Combustion
Plant Directive
(FGD)
ƒ Sulphur dioxide
Total SO 2 emissions (kt)
600
500
Mainly due
to Coal
CCS
400
300
200
100
0
2000
SO2
2010
REF
2020
LC
2030
R
LCR
2040
2050
Emissions
3
80
Total CO (Mt)
Total PM10 (kt)
100
60
40
20
PM10
0
2000
2010
2020
REF
LC
2030
R
2040
2050
1
LC R
CO
2010
REF
2020
LC
2030
R
2040
2050
LC R
80
30
T o ta l C H 4 (k t)
Total N 2 O (kt)
2
0
2000
40
20
10
LCR and
R lowest
N2O
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
REF
LC
R
LC R
60
40
20
0
2000
CH4
2010
REF
2020
LC
2030
R
2040
LC R
2050
Other Pressures
60
LC and LCR
highest
Radioactivity
40
20
0
2000
2010
REF
2020
LC
2030
R
2040
LCR
2050
20
Area (sq km x 103 )
Radioactive releases
(TBq)
80
Land Take
15
10
5
0
2000
2010
2020
REF
LC
2030
R
2040
LCR
2050
Key Messages
Environmental Pressures
ƒ Reducing CO2 emissions is good
for the environment
ƒ Demand reduction for resilience
is better
ƒ Need to be both pro-active and
responsive