The Changing Face of the
Texas Labor Market
Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI)
Texas Workforce Commission
richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us
(512) 936-3105
Are you a Left Brain (analytical, data driven, logical)
or Right Brain (creative, intuitive, philosophical)?
The Good News… A Recovery in
the Money economy is definitely
at hand, e.g. GDP, profits, stocks
The Bad News…The Money
economy and the Job Market
are 2 different birds
Fear of double dip recession
Is it still an economic
downturn or
a crisis in confidence?
Persistently high unemployment
Mortgages “underwater”
Consumers are staying in cash
Corporate profits have recovered
Texas Consumer Behavior
120
1100
110
1000
100
90
Billions $$$
800
80
700
70
600
60
50
40
Retail Sales
Personal Income
500
400
Billions $$$
900
Consumer Expectations and Changes in GDP
Index
Percent
130
15
Expectations: Conference Board
Survey
Index 1985 = 100
Left Scale
120
110
12
9
100
6
90
3
80
0
GDP*
Right Scale
70
9/11
Terrorist
Attacks
60
50
-3
Hurricane
Katrina
-6
Iraqi
War
-9
40
-12
30
-15
20
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
*Quarterly changes in real Gross Domestic Product at annual rates, based on chain-type 2005 weighted measures.
Shaded areas represent periods of recession.
Sources: The Conference Board; The Nielsen Company; TNS; BEA; NBER
2008
2009
2010
2011
-18
2012
Harry Truman is purported to have said,
All my economists say,
“on the one, or on the
other hand”…what I
really need is a onehanded economist.
Is the Economic Glass
Half Full?
or
Half Empty?
• Unemployment rate falling
• More sectors contribute to
job growth
• Corporations cash-rich
• 29 months of job growth
• Spending is up, savings
rate up, consumers
lowering debt burden
• Consumer confidence is
improving
• House prices near bottom?
• UI initial claims are down
• Real estate, construction
and govt. still reeling
• European debt/bank
crisis still looming
• Slowing global GDP
• Energy prices?
• Lack of confidence in
demand, political system
• Still tight lending
standards & terms
• Net worth down$9.4 tril
from peak
The Interworkings of the Global Economy
Comparative Total Population Change in Texas
2000-2010
2000
Population
2010
Population
United States
281,421,906
308,745,538 27,323,632
Texas
California
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
Arizona
20,851,820
33,871,648
15,982,378
8,186,453
8,049,313
5,130,632
25,145,561
37,253,956
18,801,310
9,687,653
9,535,483
6,392,017
ABS CHG
2000-10
PCT CHG
2000-10
4,293,741
3,382,308
2,818,932
1,501,200
1,486,170
1,261,385
9.7%
20.6%
10.0%
17.6%
18.3%
18.5%
24.6%
Decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010
13
Where Texans Live
Number of People
82 - 9,999
10,000 - 24,999
Where Texans have moved
Percent Change
-21% - -10.1%
-10% - -0.1%
25,000 - 99,999
0% - 24.9%
100,000 - 999,999
25% - 54.9%
1,000,000 - 4,092,459
55% - 81.8%
Texas becomes more Hispanic
Tough Competition: Generation X, Y, and Baby Boomer
Employment in Texas 2000 - 2008
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2000
2001
Born in 1946-1964
2002
2003
Born in 1965-1980
2004
2005
2006
Born in 1981-1994
2007
2008
Poly. (Born in 1965-1980)
How many Millenials does it take to screw
in a light bulb?
1. One to
the instructions
2. One to post the instructions on the wall
of their
page
3. One to post the
video of their
work showing collaboration
One Baby Boomer to tell them what a
terrific, wonderful, spectacular job they
did with the light bulb
Texas Private Job Growth By Time period (Nov 2011)
2007 to 2008 2008 to 2009 2009 to 2010 2010 to 2011
Texas
New York
Oklahoma
Washington
Louisiana
North Dakota
Alaska
South Dakota
Vermont
Texas
Indiana
Massachusetts
Michigan
Dist of Columbia Minnesota
California
Texas
Florida
New York
New Jersey
Colorado
Wyoming
Dist of Columbia Montana
Pennsylvania Massachusetts
New York
Louisiana
North Dakota Rhode Island
Massachusetts Delaware
Wyoming
Maine
Oklahoma
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Dist of Columbia Arizona
Texas & U.S. Labor Market Statistics
Dec 2011
Nov 2011
Dec 2010
12,378,800
12,361,500
12,209,300
Texas
Unemployed
959,400
997,100
1,010,700
Texas U Rate
7.8%
8.1%
8.3%
Texas Labor Force
+169,500 YOY
U.S. Labor Force
+274,000 YOY
153,887,000 153,937,000 153,613,000
U.S. Unemployed
13,097,000
13,323,000
14,393,000
U.S. Urate
8.5%
8.7%
9.4%
San Antonio
Urate**
6.8%
7.0%
7.2%
(1,000s)
156,000
U.S. and Texas Civilian Labor Force
154,000
13,000,000
12,500,000
152,000
12,000,000
150,000
148,000
11,500,000
146,000
11,000,000
144,000
142,000
140,000
138,000
136,000
US CLF (sa)
10,500,000
10,000,000
Texas CLF (sa)
9,500,000
U.S. Civilian Labor Force Growth
156,000
90,000
154,000
85,000
152,000
80,000
150,000
148,000
75,000
146,000
70,000
144,000
65,000
142,000
140,000
US CLF (sa)
Not in CLF
60,000
138,000
55,000
136,000
50,000
Goods Producing Employment Trends (1995-2011)
180
170
160
Construction
150
140
130
120
110
Total Nonagricultural
Mining
100
90
80
Manufacturing
Mass Layoff Events in Texas
400
337
Number of Mass Layoff Events
350
300
250
200
150
180
174
124
117
100
50
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 (Jan-Nov
YTD)
Texas Industry Growth December 2010-11 YOY
Industry
Dec 2011 ABS CHG PER CHG
Total Nonagricultural
10,649,200 204,500
2.0
Total Nongovernment (aka private)
8,843,900 260,000
3.0
Goods-Producing
1,686,100 59,600
3.7%
Service-Providing
8,963,100 144,900 1.6%
Professional and Business Services
1,343,700 53,100
4.1
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,108,000 45,800
2.2
Leisure and Hospitality
1,060,200 41,200
4.0
Mining and Logging
257,900 40,700
18.7
Education and Health Services
1,443,500 36,900
2.6
Manufacturing
837,400 25,200
3.1
Financial Activities
638,800 18,000
2.9
Other Services
378,700 13,300
3.6
Construction
590,800 -6,300
-1.1
Information
184,900 -7,900
-4.1
Government
1,805,300 -55,500
-3.0
Detailed View: Texas Job Growth Nov 2010 - Nov 2011
INDUSTRY TITLE
Nov 2011 ABS CHG PER CHG
Ambulatory Health Care Services
631,300 40,200
6.8%
Administrative and Support Services
663,900 32,300
5.1%
Food Services and Drinking Places
826,400 30,500
3.8%
148,900 28,100 23.3%
Support Activities for Mining
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
131,400 13,900 11.8%
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
155,800 12,400
8.7%
Accommodation
110,700 11,200 11.3%
98,800 10,900 12.4%
Machinery Manufacturing
8.8%
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacture 124,400 10,100
Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods 294,400
9,900
3.5%
Repair and Maintenance Services
116,000
8,800
8.2%
142,900
7,500
5.5%
Construction of Buildings
89,400
6,500
7.8%
Oil and Gas Extraction
Detailed View: Texas Job Decline Nov 2010 - Nov 2011
INDUSTRY TITLE
Nov 2011 ABS CHG PER CHG
Local Government (incl. education)
1,261,600 -49,900 -3.8%
State Government (incl. education)
372,400 -13,300 -3.5%
Social Assistance & Child Care
186,900
-7,500 -3.9%
Telecommunications
80,700
-5,200 -6.1%
30,800
-1,900 -5.8%
Nonmetallic Mineral Manufacture
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores
36,500
-1,800 -4.7%
Insurance Carriers & Activities
155,300
-1,800 -1.2%
Federal Government
197,800
-1,700 -0.9%
Rental and Leasing Services
48,200
-1,600 -3.2%
25,900
-1,300 -4.8%
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
26,600
-1,200 -4.3%
Printing & Related Manufacturing
94,500
-1,100 -1.2%
Computer & Electronics Manufacture
69,500
-800 -1.1%
Chemical Manufacturing
Increase in Job Activity: San Antonio MSA
New Hires vs. Separations
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
New Hires
Separations
San Antonio MSA New Hire Earnings vs. All Workers
$4,000
$3,500
$3,786
$3,000
$2,391
$2,500
All Worker Earnings
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
New Hire Earnings
EMP
ABS
GAINERS: Alamo LWDA Sectors (2009-11) 2011Q2 CHG
Tourism, Hospitality and Leisure: restaurants and
hotels
119,475 6,003
Business and Financial Services: Insurance, nonbank financial
139,052 4,656
Biotechnology, Life Sciences & Medical: Hospitals,
Physicians Offices
73,725 4,426
Corporate HQ, Administrative & Government:
federal govt.
88,927 3,682
Personal and Residential Services: home health
and nursing care services
57,195 3,128
Transportation Equipment: auto dealers, parts
manufacturing, auto repair
31,910 2,817
Legal, Protective & Human Support Services:
individual family , legal & emergency services
28,136 1,735
Electronics & Applied Computer Equipment:
semi-conductors, commercial electronic &
medical equipment wholesalers
11,949 1,069
PCT Trend
CHG vs 2018
5.3 Above
3.5 Above
6.4 Above
4.3 Above
5.8 Equal
9.7 Above
6.6 Above
9.8 Above
Job Churn: San Antonio Private Sector New Hires
San Antonio New Hire Activity
Hiring
Earnings
(2010 4th) All Workers
All NAICS subsectors
55,321
Food Services & Drinking Places
9,426
Administrative & Support Services
5,804
Ambulatory Health Care Services
5,200
Professional, Scientific, Tech Services
2,864
Specialty Trade Contractors
2,106
Credit Intermediation Activities
1,407
Nursing & Residential Care Facilities
1,640
Social Assistance & Child care
1,596
Hospitals
1,296
Accommodation
1,206
General Merchandise Stores
1,325
Insurance Carriers & Related Activities
991
$3,518
$1,494
$2,871
$3,803
$5,254
$3,507
$4,195
$2,388
$2,050
$4,511
$2,139
$2,093
$6,434
Earnings
New Hires
$2,223
$1,068
$1,971
$2,470
$3,774
$2,664
$3,048
$2,126
$1,458
$3,711
$1,643
$1,211
$4,112
Eagle Ford Shale:
24 county region
1. $1.3 billion in gross state
product, $2.9 total output
2. $511 million in salaries (2010)
3. Supports 12,601 jobs
4. $108 million in tax revenues
5. 2,828 drilling permits issued
through 2011
Texas Firm Births vs. Deaths
60,000
50,000
Private Firms in Texas
40,000
30,000
20,000
Infant Firms
Deceased Firms
Infant Firm minus Deceased Firms
10,000
0
-10,000
Texas Job Posting Activity: The Conference Board HWOL
No. Unemployed
No. of Job Ads
350,000
313,045
1,150,000
1,050,000
950,000
300,000
850,000
750,000
250,000
650,000
550,000
450,000
350,000
200,000
Unemployment
HWOL
150,000
250,000
150,000
100,000
Texas Online Job Postings Last 90 Days January 2012
Registered Nurses
Truck Drivers, Heavy & Tractor-Trailer
Retail Salespersons
Computer Systems Analysts
Supervisors, Retail Sales Workers
Customer Service Representatives
Physical Therapists
Web Developers
Computer Support Specialists
Accountants
Exec. Secretaries/Admin Assts.
Network Systems Administrators
Non-technical Sales Reps, Wh & Man
Occupational Therapists
Supervisors, Food Prep Workers
26,820
14,810
11,784
11,731
11,148
10,307
9,445
9,351
9,064
7,862
7,558
7,244
7,098
6,468
6,167
Associate’s/Bachelor’s
Moderate term OJT
Short term OJT
Bachelor’s degree
Related Work Experience
Moderate term OJT
Master’s degree
Associate’s degree
Associate’s degree
Bachelor’s degree
Related Work Experience
Bachelor’s degree
Related Work Experience
Master’s degree
Related Work Experience
San Antonio MSA Online Job Postings Last 90 Days Feb 2012
Occupation
Registered Nurses
Truck Drivers, Tractor-Trailer
Customer Service Representatives
Retail Salespersons
Computer Support Specialists
Supervisors, Retail Sales Workers
Network Systems Administrators
Supervisors, Food Prep Workers
Exec. Secretaries/Admin Assts.
Non-technical Sales Reps, W & M
Web Developers
Supervisors, Admin Support
Medical & Health Srvcs Managers
Physical Therapists
Postings CHG
2,193 326
2,006 1,011
1,533 129
1,410 228
1,037 42
983 104
922 23
873 159
826 11
788 99
747 120
732 69
715 13
702 180
Preferred training
Associate's/Bachelor's
Short term OJT
Moderate term OJT
Short term OJT
Associate’s degree
Related work experience
Bachelor’s degree
Related work experience
Related work experience
Related work experience
Associate’s degree
Related work experience
Bachelor’s degree plus
Master’s degree
Education Mismatch: Texas Unemployed vs. Job Postings
Doctoral Degree
0.6%
.8%
Professional Degree
0.3%
1.6%
Masters Degree
0.9%
3.6%
Bachelor’s + Work Experience
3.4%
Bachelor’s Degree
8.5%
22.7%
Associate’s Degree
2.0%
10.0%
Post-secondary Vocational
4.0%
9.3%
Job related work experience
5.4%
9.2%
6.2%
4.4%
22.4%
15.4%
46.3%
15.3%
Long-term On The Job training
Medium-term On The Job training
Short-term On The Job training
47%
HWOL 2011
Postings
84%
2011 WIT Job
Applicants
Education Requirement
7.8%
Highest Earning College Programs 2010 Summary
Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX)
Engineering
Health Professions & Related Clinical Sciences
Engineering Technologies/Technicians
Computer & Information Sciences
Business, Management & Marketing
Mathematics and Statistics
Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies
Physical Sciences
Liberal Arts & Sciences/Humanities
Teacher Education & Development /Special Ed
Agriculture & Agriculture Operations
Unknown or Undeclared
Public Administration & Social Service
Security & Protective Services
Social Sciences
Grads Earnings
4,554
$51,131
7,644
$50,813
951
$46,075
1,356
$44,408
21,153
$36,261
914
$33,296
10,082
$31,888
1,103
$30,828
2,359
$30,074
1,505
$29,594
1,804
$28,195
2,247
$27,812
1,174
$27,456
2,783
$27,039
6,227
$26,795
Highest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail View
Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX)
Petroleum Engineering
Quality Control/Safety Technology
Chemical Engineering
Ocean Engineering
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration
Electrical & Electronic Engineering
Mechanical Engineering
Construction Engineering
Health Diagnostic & Treatment Professions
Engineering Science
Computer Systems Networking/Telecomm
Computer Engineering, General
Engineering, General
Computer Systems Analysis
Information Technology Admin & Mgmt
Grads Earnings
271
$84,961
30
$61,113
405
$60,791
71
$59,411
4,745
$59,359
111
$55,332
1,224
$53,307
54
$50,594
375
$49,202
29
$48,601
26
$48,411
189
$47,815
41
$47,751
114
$47,747
64
$47,524
Lowest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail View
Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX)
Pastoral Counseling & Specialized Ministries
Germanic Languages & Literature
Film/Video and Photographic Arts
Dramatic/Theatre Arts & Stagecraft
Classical Languages, Literatures & Linguistics
English Composition
Religious Education
Ecology, Evolution and Population Biology
Anthropology
Radio, Television & Digital Communication
Health/Medical Preparatory Programs
Parks & Recreation Facilities Management
Bible/Biblical Studies
Zoology/Animal Biology
Fine and Studio Art
Grads Earnings
60
$15,205
46
$17,444
142
$17,619
529
$18,304
35
$18,342
44
$19,903
56
$20,122
87
$20,156
460
$20,310
983
$20,413
93
$20,547
139
$20,558
55
$20,860
102
$21,372
1,347
$21,464
Highest Earning Associate’s Degree Programs 2010
Associate’s Degree Graduate Major (TX)
Grads Earnings
Fire Protection
157
$68,275
Nuclear Radiologic Technology
33
$63,908
Electrical & Power Transmission Installers
41
$55,835
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration
5,203
$53,648
Mining and Petroleum Technology
24
$50,241
Physical Science Technology
457
$47,881
Electromechanical /Instrumentation Technology
397
$46,151
Quality Control & Safety Technology
133
$44,685
Chemistry
56
$44,599
Industrial Production Technology
97
$44,138
Construction Engineering Technology
45
$41,789
Mechanical Engineering Related Technology
29
$41,622
Precision Metal Working
138
$39,817
Electrical/Electronics Maintenance Technology
47
$37,500
Dental Support Services & Allied Professions
352
$37,371
Structural Mismatch: 2010 Graduates Grads Earnings
Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other
Business Administration, Mgmt & Operations
Psychology, General
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration
Biology, General
Health and Physical Education/Fitness
Finance & Financial Mgmt Services
Accounting & Related Services
Marketing
Criminal Justice and Corrections
English Language and Literature, General
Liberal Arts, General Studies & Humanities
History, General
Political Science & Government
Public Relations & Advertising
9,536
6,056
5,169
4,745
4,517
3,457
3,269
3,083
2,884
2,783
2,453
2,359
2,245
2,208
1,772
$32,132
$40,473
$22,613
$59,359
$21,737
$23,454
$37,160
$33,583
$31,693
$27,039
$23,124
$30,074
$24,016
$25,037
$27,579
Trends in U.S. Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded
“In China today, Bill Gates is
Britney Spears. In America
today, Britney Spears is
Britney Spears. And that is
our problem.”
Jerry Yang, Co-Founder of Yahoo!
Emerging Markets in a Global Economy:
Percent of 2000 & 2007 Revenue Outside U.S.
YUM Brands 34.5% (50.1%)
Ford 30.4% (53.1%)
Boeing 34.3% (40.8%)
Intel 58.8% (84.3%)
Coca Cola 61.0% (73.8%)
Corning (70.7%)
Emerson Electric 40% (51.6%)
Accenture (60.5%)
Microsoft (38.7%)
IBM 57.9% (57.9%)
Schlumberger (84.9%)
JNJ 38.2% (47.1%)
John Deere 25.1% (34.6%)
Colgate 69.4% (80.3%)
Nike 50.3% (62.6%)
Campbell Soup (31.0%)
Molson Coors (55.4%)
3M Corporation (61.4)
Percent of Multinational Corporation Jobs
Employed by U.S. Parent Company
76.0%
74.0%
72.0%
70.0%
73.5%
72.9%
72.3%
71.4%
72.5%
71.1%
70.8%
69.3%
68.0%
67.8%
66.0%
64.0%
62.0%
60.0%
58.0%
66.9%
64.7%
U.S. jobs as a percent of all MNC jobs
64.0%
Short-term Forecasted Job Growth by Region
LWDA
2010
2011
2012
AVG
2009-12
Lower Rio Grande/Brownsville
Travis County/Austin
South Texas/McAllen
Alamo/San Antonio
Rural Capital/Round Rock
Permian /Midland-Odessa
Central Texas/ Killeen-Temple
Upper Rio Grande/ El Paso
Brazos Valley/ Bryan
Heart of Texas/ Waco
North Central Texas/Plano
East Texas / Tyler
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.4
1.9
1.1
1.7
0.7
1.3
2.8
2.5
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.3
1.6
1.2
2.8
2.7
2.2
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.6
1.7
1.3
1.6
1.3
2.7%
2.4%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
1.9%
1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
Employer Hiring Progression:
Shifting Business Practices
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Work existing full-time workers more hours
Move part-timers to full-time workers
Employ temporary or leased workers
Use contract workers for fixed periods
Reconsider work/hiring location based on potential
growth markets & cost structure
Outsource all non-core business functions
Consider strategic partnerships to increase sales,
limit labor liability
Take advantage of H1B and L1 visas
Add full-time domestic employees (FTE)
Percent Job Losses in Recessions 1990-2007
Optimistic
Baseline
Pessimistic
Regional employers say they want…
1. Good communications skills: Can you…..

Explain what you’re doing (to co-worker or customer)?


Explain what you need (from a co-worker or customer)?
Ability to listen to instructions?
2. Critical thinking skills (if given a sequence of events, can you
determine what will probably happen next)
3. Technical knowledge (degrees needed for half of all job
openings)
4. Can-do attitude / pleasant attitude (workers who are
“engaged” in their work)
5. Can you work with people who are of a different age,
race, gender and education level than you?
There is much more story to
tell, but this version is over
Thank you!
richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us
Why isn’t it Better? A Different Recession
• Corporations are holding $ 1.6 trillion in cash
• Corporate investments low; excess capacity,
emerging markets better bet, spending on
technology – not people
• 2nd inventory replacement cycle nearly over,
consumer still hasn’t taken up the slack
• Interest rates are low, MNC hoarding borrowed
$$$, but overall borrowing down
• General lack of confidence: regulatory
uncertainty, low consumer confidence