Prirodna kolebanja/cikličnost? BRGM (2005) • • • • Znanstveno dokazano (Izvještaj IPCC 2007) Jesu li nam doista poznati svi čimbenici? Što ako... npr. ništa ne promijenimo? Možemo li čekati? BRGM (2005) IEA (2004) IPCC (2005) Proizvodnja nafte ili plina Utiskivanje CO2 Mogućnosti za geološko skladištenje CO2 1. Iscrpljena naftna i plinska ležišta 2. Korištenje CO2 za EOR 3. Duboki slani vodonosnici 4. Duboki slojevi ugljena 5. Korištenje CO2 za ECBM 6. Druge mogućnosti Uskladišteni CO2 IPCC (2005) Izvor: IPCC Izvor: IPCC Veliki kapacitet Velika šupljikavost, velika ležišta uskladištenja Učinkovito utiskivanje Visoka propusnost Nizak geoterm. gradijent i visoki tlak Sigurno uskladištenje Odgovarajuća izolacija Geološka i hidrodinamička stabilnost Niski troškovi Infrastruktura, udaljenost Mogućnosti uskladištenja Duboki slani vodonosnici Iscrpljena naftna i plinska ležišta Kapacitet (Gt CO2) 1 000 ... 10 000 675 ... 900* (+25%) Slojevi ugljena 3-15 ... 200 Emisije CO2 u svijetu 25 Gt/god Izvor: IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage IEA (2004) Napušteno polje B Geosekvestracija polje A Morsko dno Morske struje Nakupljanje pri dnu mora Migracija Rizici geološkog skladištenja Pliće “ležište” Difuzija Istjecanje na površinu Plinska faza Čep Napuštena bušotina Pukotina (porast tlaka) Difuzija i tok Difuzija Skladište Difuzija P, T Pokrovne stijene za naftu, ali ne i za CO2 Šejl Tok podzemne vode Disperzija u otopini Šejl Sigurno (i prihvatljivo)? Geološko skladištenje mora biti sigurno Zabrinutost društva proizlazi iz usporedbe s odlaganjem toksičnog i radioaktivnog otpada Educiranje i informiranje moraju se ubrzati u svrhu podizanja razine javne i političke svijesti o konceptu hvatanja i uskladištenja CO2 … na vrijeme! Namjena prostora (vodonosnici, zaštićena područja...) Tko će pokriti dodatne troškove? Druge mogućnosti – porast energetske učinkovitosti, obnovljivi izvori... nuklearna energija EU GeoCapacity (FP6) Aquifers I Highly efficient coal-fired power block: 47% efficiency, 411 MW e Post-combustion capture 1.8 million tonnes of CO2 per annum ’Nordjyllandsværket’ by the city of Aalborg Cross-section through the Vedsted geological structure Storage must be at least 700 meters deep to ensure CO2 to be in supercritical state CO2 in fluid form is pumped into the well Vedsted-1, Oil exploration well from 1958 Haldager-1, Oil exploration well from 1950 CO2 is stored in porous Sandstones covered by thick sections of impermeable claystones - 1 km Porous sandstone - 2 km - 3 km Cross section courtecy of GEUS The storage structure CHALLENGES 1 (SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY) Integration of CCS and power plant and integration of transport & storage with plant operations Storage site investigations and monitoring with less invasive methods Improved understanding of long-term prediction of geochemical and fluid dynamic effects Pore-scale behaviour of CO2 Combining storage with other activities (water production, EOR, EGR) CHALLENGES 2 - SOCIETY Financing the first demo plants & reducing first-mover risk Building political concensus on CCS: global-EU-nationallocal Including CCS in national policy measures Linking national need for CCS to actual local activity - public dialogue - risks and rewards ECCO European value chain for CO2 Co-funded by the Grant Agreement No: Project duration: Budget: EU contribution: Co-ordinator: European Commission (FP7) 218868 2008-2011 (36 months) 5,5 million € 3,8 million € SINTEF Energiforskning AS, Norway 21 To facilitate robust strategic decision making regarding early and future implementation of CO2 value chains for Europe in the face of uncertainty. The project will provide recommendations enabling cost-effective use of the CO2 being produced from zeroemission power plants and other industries in Europe. Recommendations are based on; 1. Initial scenario studies performed for Europe, setting the scene for how the development will proceed towards 2020, including evaluation of technology development, emission trading schemes, regulations, national and international incentives, industrial projects being realized and economical viability of CO2 value chains. 2. The development of a computer tool for evaluation of large-scale CO2 value chains with the possibility of multiple sources and sinks, and development of a large-scale infrastructure for CO2 transport. 3. Output from the scenario studies forms the basis for the tool development. 4. Evaluation of specific challenges related to CO2 injection, both onshore and offshore, depending on reservoir characteristics and the needed processing systems (particularly offshore). 5. Case studies performed, using the computer tool, for evaluation of specific CO2 value chains, using the parameters developed through the scenario studies and in the end evaluates the influence of the different parameters. 6. Identification of the major obstacles that can be addressed and handled with the aim to make future realization of CO2 value chains viable. The main users of ECCO-results will be: CO2 producers – seeking opportunities for improving economy of their system. The European Commission (EC) and other supranational bodies – developing regulations and incentives. National authorities – who have the Kyoto and ETS obligations to meet, and seeks ways to organize the national systems in line with EC regulations and industrial interests. CO2 transporters and sellers – who have a potential new stream to handle safely and seek optimal infrastructure development; and are affected by market development. CO2 storage operators – who need to be assured they have a large enough flow of CO2 over the required time, and are dependent on long-term perspective with respect to constraints as regulations and incentives. R&D providers and universities – to be in a better position to serve the industry and authorities by exploiting the platform of knowledge, tools, and methods generated in the project. Oil and gas industry - the increased knowledge of enhanced oil and gas recovery (EOR and EGR) potentials and challenges provided by ECCO might provide the basis for further industrial activities in this front. ECCO European value chain for CO2 General Assembly All partners EC Control Executive Board 7 members incl. Chairman + Co-ordinator Overall Project Responsibility Major decisions ICG members Observers Ad-hoc Committee As required SP0 Project management and co-ordination Project Management Team Project ordinator ProjectMgr.+CoCo-ordinator Administrative support Administrative support Project lead legal, financial, adm. staff Assisted byoperation the Projectand manager legal, financial, adm. staff Administrative work Executive project management Administrative work Sub- project 1 SP+WP Leaders R&D work Sub- project 2 SP+WP Leaders R&D work Sub- project 3 SP+WP Leaders R&D work Sub- project 4 SP+WP Leaders R&D work Dissemination and training - SP1 Provide a platform for dissemination of the developments in ECCO. This will include hosting and arranging official dissemination events and training activities. SP1 also aims at enhancing the public awareness regarding the implementation of CCS. CCS analysis and recommendations - SP2 Analyse the output from the simulation of case studies and make recommendations for the development and deployment of CO2 value chains using early opportunities across Europe. SP2 has three main goals: 1. To recommend promising CO2 value chains as case studies for deeper evaluation in SP3 2. To make overall recommendations for the development and deployment of CO 2 value chains based on the interpretation of the outcome of the case studies 3. To propose a methodology that can be used by all interested sectors for assessing the worthiness of commercially promising value chain proposals CO2 value chain methodology and tool development - SP3 Develop a generic tool for the economic analysis of CO2 value chains. The tool will be designed in a way that will allow flexible, demand-driven tailoring to the applicable market dynamics and incorporate the possibility to model infrastructural, regional dependencies between assets that are gradually and increasingly networked. Reservoir technology for EOR/EGR - SP4 Three main objectives: 1. To quantify the potential for enhanced oil and gas recovery (EOR/EGR) and CO 2 storage in European petroleum reservoirs 2. To evaluate technological challenges and identify improvements to existing EOR/EGR technology, including CO2 injection and handling of CO2 produced after breakthrough 3. To show how aquifers can be integrated into a CO2 deposition system