COMESEP: Forecasting the
Space Weather Impact
Norma Crosby1, Astrid Veronig2, Eva Robbrecht3, Bojan Vrsnak4, Susanne
Vennerstrøm5, Olga Malandraki6, Silvia Dalla7; Charlie Farrugia8
1Belgian
Institute for Space Aeronomy, BELGIUM
2University of Graz, AUSTRIA
3Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM
4Hvar Observatory, CROATIA
5Technical University of Denmark, DENMARK
6National Observatory of Athens, GREECE
7University of Central Lancashire, UNITED KINGDOM
8The University of New Hampshire, UNITED STATES
Seventh European Space Weather Week,15-19 Nov. 2010, Brugge, Belgium
Introduction
Project Full Title: COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles:
forecasting the space weather impact
Project Acronym: COMESEP
Eight Team Members: 6 EU, 1 Associated Country, 1 High-Income Country
Solar Energetic Particles [SEP] Teams:
• Institut d’Aeronomie Spatiale de Belgique, Belgium
• National Observatory of Athens, Greece
• University of Central Lancashire, United Kingdom
Coronal Mass Ejections [CME] Teams:
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Universitaet Graz, Austria
Koninklijke Sterrenwacht van België, Belgium
Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb, Croatia
Technical University of Denmark, Denmark
The University of North Hampshire, United States
Four External Collaborators: (1 India, 2 USA, 1 Croatia)
Associate Professor Dr. Nandita Srivastava, Udaipur Solar Observatory
Dr. Michael Hesse, Director of the “Community Coordinated Modeling
Center (CCMC)” at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, U.S.A.
Dr. Dusan Odstrcil, George Mason University, Fairfax – NASA Goddard
Space Flight Center, U.S.A.
Assistant Prof. Dr. Giuliana Verbanac, Faculty of Science, University of
Zagreb, Croatia.
Type of Funding Scheme: Collaborative Project
Work Programme Topics Addressed: SPA.2010.2.3-01 Security of space
assets from space weather events
Current Status: In Final Negotiations, start-date estimate 1st quarter 2011
An Overview
1. The COMESEP Project will combine basic research on space
weather events with the development of a European space weather
alert system.
2. Scientific results obtained in the COMESEP Project will be used for
optimising detection and forecasting methods
3. The derived SEP and ICME forecast tools will be linked with realtime automated detection of CMEs as they appear when observed at
the Sun.
4. Individual detection tools and models will be integrated into an
automated “start-to-end-service” system.
5. SEP radiation storm and magnetic storm alerts will be disseminated
to the European space weather community.
RTD Work-Packages
[1.] BASIC SCIENCE
WP2: CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS
• Enhance the understanding of the 3D kinematics and interplanetary propagation
of ICMEs.
• Test and compare analytical and numerical ICME propagation models.
• Investigate the evolution of the ICME magnetic structure.
WP3: SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLES
• Enhance our understanding of the source of SEP events and acceleration
processes, as well as SEP propagation.
• Advance SEP modelling to include CME propagation effects, cross-field diffusion
and heavy ions.
WP4: SPACE WEATHER IMPACT
• Identify the key parameters of solar events that define the space weather
impact.
• Quantify the impact of the various observables that could be used for prediction.
[2.] MODEL OPTIMISATION
WP5: DEVELOPMENT OF FORECASTING METHODS
• Optimise models describing the propagation of ICMEs and SEPs for space
weather forecasting.
• Implement an automated ICME detection system.
• Test different solar wind models to optimise the information on the background
solar wind parameters.
• Link the CME detection system and solar wind modelling with the ICME and SEP
forecasting tools so that key parameters from the former are included in the tools
[3.] ALERT SYSTEM
WP6: SPACE WEATHER ALERT SYSTEM
• Establish an operational European Space Weather Alert system to forecast SEP
radiation storms and magnetic storms.
• Go beyond individual detection tools and models, by integrating their outputs
into an automated start-to-end-service system.
• Disseminate the alerts and forecasts to the space weather vulnerable industries
and other users using existing media on European and national level thereby
complementing the ESA SSA space weather observational programme.
In Summary
The COMESEP European Space Weather Alert system will
provide Space Weather stakeholders with the following
services:
• Geomagnetic and SEP radiation storm forecasts based on
the automated detection of solar activity and modelling of the
evolution of the ICME and energetic particles.
• Geomagnetic
and SEP radiation
storm alerts
based on the
COMESEP
definition of risk.