Nick Sabatini & Associates, LLC
Expert Aviation Safety Solutions
NCSBN Consumer Conference
June 9, 2011
Chicago, IL
World Regional Fatal Accident* Rate / Million Cycles
(2002 – 2006)
Western-built, selected Eastern-built and turboprop aircraft accidents*, by airline domicile.
Europe
.56
Canada .15
China
.29
USA .10
Middle East
1.97
Latin America
and Caribbean
1.28
Rest of Asia
.85
Africa
4.98
World
.64
Australasia
.35
Note: * US 121 like accidents
Source: Selected AirClaims & WAAS Accident Data & JOS Exposure Data. Includes estimated exposure data for 2006.
Fatalities
U.S. Air Carrier Fatalities
Per 100 Million Persons Flown, 1946-2010
U.S. Air Carrier Fatalities
Per 100 Million Persons Flown, 1946-2010
Pressurized Aircraft (L-049, DC-6 & B-377)
Early ILS (Glide slope, LOC & markers)
xx
Persistent 60-Year
Factor: Fleet Renewal
Fatalities
Broad implementation of VOR and DME
Radar introduced at selected towers
Vickers-700 Turboprop (1953 in UK, 1956 US)
DC-7 (1955), Lockheed Electra
Radio contact, ATC centers & cruise aircraft 1949-55
Long-Range radar (Centers)
Jet Engine; 707 (1958) & DC-8
VOR/DME integrated into autopilot
(precision approaches)
Secondary radar
RNAV (processing VOR/DME &
basic Instruments)
GPWS, TCAS; Early automation
FMS
CRM
6-Axis Simulator & FDR
Windshear
Cabin Safety
Flight Envelope Protection
FOQA/ASAP & ATC Data
RJ Revolution
New Large Jets
RNP, Synthetic Vision
• “mid 1980s our focus shifted to working together with
industry to allow voluntary sharing of data”
•
•
•
•
Aviation Safety Action Program (ASAP)
Flight Operations Quality Assurance (FOQA)
Crew Resource Management (CRM)
Threat and Error Management (TEM)
• “programs were aimed at recognizing human error
and fallibility and learning from past mistakes and
errors to prevent these errors and mistakes from
happening in the future”
• "Unlike the medical community, the FAA is the sole
authority for regulating the entire aviation industry"
• "FAA Statutory authority found in Title 49 of the
United States Code"
• “the duty of an air carrier to provide service with the
highest degree of safety in the public interest”
1500 Fatalities
ACCIDENTS PREVENTED
Remaining risks
Data reflects accidents and fatal accidents per million flight hours (the only common denominator available for the full period).
How to Retrieve Reference Documents
https://www.faa.gov
1.Click on "Regulations and Policy"
2.Click on "Advisory Circulars"
3.Enter desired AC number
AC 120-60B: Aviation Safety Action Program (ASAP)
AC 120-82: Flight Operations Quality Assurance (FOQA)
AC 120-90: Line Operations Safety Audits (LOSA)