The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model:
Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Tingting Ma1,2, Alan Porter1, Jud Ready1, Chen Xu1,
Lidan Gao3, Wenping Wang1,2, Ying Guo1,2
1 Georgia Institute of Technology
2 Beijing Institute of Technology
3 Chinese Academy of Sciences
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Index
• Summary
• Introduction
• Data and methodology
• Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)
• Conclusion
• Acknowledge
• References
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Summary
Research Significance
• The great uncertainty of new and emerging sciences and technologies
• To enhance competitive participants’ technological innovation capability and
international competitiveness.
Technology Opportunity Analysis Model
• Multi-level framework
• Patent data
Result of Case Study
• The most promising pathway to advance DSSCs
• Potential organizations that may improve DSSCs technology
• Collaboration opportunities
• Market forecasting
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Introduction
TOA is proposed by Alan Porter & Michael Detampel
• Combing monitoring with bibliometric analysis
• To identify emerging technologies for campus-wide strategic planning
Morphology Analysis – (Yoon & Park, 2004)
• Keywords-based morphology analysis
• Patent data
•To elicit the definite promising configuration of technology
Technology Delivery System - (Wenk and Kuehn, 1977)
• Socio-technical systems model
• To identify the pivotal elements involved in innovation
• Dynamic development processes from R&D to the market
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Data and methodology
TOA Framework
Technology Opportunities Analysis
R&D opportunities
Competitive
opportunities
Market opportunities
R&D analysis
Competitive analysis
Market analysis
Global technology
environment
Competitive
environment
Market environment
Intelligence information
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Data
Derwent World Patents Index (DWPI)
A multi-stage Boolean search strategy
• Create main search terms
- a variety of DSSC technical terminology
• Enrich those search terms
- different expressions of DSSCs
-closely related technical structures.
• Check search terms
-excluding their retrieval overlap with the main search.
• Combine the terms and evaluate them
-randomly testing and assessing retrieval results
• Further revise our search terms
Data cleaning – Vantagepoint software
3079 records from 1991-2010 on DSSCs
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Methodology
R&D analysis
• Define technical structure of morphology
• Extract keywords and classify them
• Technology component analysis
Competitive analysis
• Assignee-technology analysis
• Co-assignee analysis
Market analysis
• Home countries/family countries matrix
• International assignee profiling
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)
R&D analysis
• Define technical structure of morphology
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)
R&D analysis
• Extract keywords and classify them
Dye, dyes, pigment, sensitizer, sensitizers,
photosensitizer…
Ruthenium dye, ruthenium complex dye,
ruthenium, ruthenium based dye, Ru dye,
metal complex dye, metal-complex pigment,
N3, N719, organic dye, organicmetallic dye,
organic dyes, nature dye, azo dye,azo…
I.
Determine which phrases refer to
the component technologies
II.
Extract keywords which are near
those component-related phrases
are extracted from the patent
abstracts and claims
III. Select those actually technically
related keywords with experts
Ruthenium dye, metal complex dye, N3, N719,
Organic dye, organicmetallic dye,nature dye,
azo dye…
Metal complex dye:
-Ruthenium dye,N3, N719, azo dye…
Organic dye
-Organicmetallic dye, nature dye, …
IV. Merge phrases that refer to the
same thing.
V. Classify them according to experts’
opinion
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)
Global trend analysis of component technologies
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)
Component technologies analysis of China
Technology portfolio map
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)
Countries’ patent ratio on important DSSCs component technologies
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)
Competitive analysis
• Green nodes – assignees
• Yellow nodes – technologies
•Lines link assignees and
technologies if they coincide in
patents.
•Thickness of lines represents
occurrences—thicker lines
represent a higher count of
occurrences.
• Most of the organizations are
Japanese companies
• Three Chinese organizations:
CASX, CHSC, and IRIC
•CASX - organic dye & gel
electrolyte
•CHSC - carbon counter-electrode
• IRIC - platinum counter-electrode
& TiO2.
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Co-Assignee map in China
Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)
Competitive analysis
Assignee-technology analysis on dye
Co-Assignee map in China
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)
Market analysis
• Home countries/family countries matrix
Home
countries
Family
JP
CN
KR
US
EP
1897
142
246
83
186
58
10
21
335
53
14
13
5
0
65
43
111
310
49
3
1
17
13
65
5
23
10
3
24
11
24
6
44
21
3
countries
JP
CN
US
KR
EP
AU
IN
Top assignees of China that have applied for patents abroad
NO.
Records
1
10
2
6
3
4
4
3
5
3
6
3
7
3
Patent Assignees
IND TECHNOLOGY RES INST (ITRI)
Patent Topics
Gel electrolyte, Ruthenium dye, Fabricating
method solar cell integrated in building
EVERLIGHT USA INC (EVER-N) LED
Ruthenium dyes
ACAD SINICA (SNIC)
Ruthenium Dyes, Organic Dyes
ETERNAL CHEM CO LTD (ETER-N)
ETHICAL
INT
TRADING
&
WAREHOUSING SHANGH (ETHI-N)
Thiophene dyes
Ruthenium dyes
TAIWAN TEXTILE RES INST (TATE-N) Azo dyes, Fabricating method, Substrate
TRIPOD TECHNOLOGY CORP (TRIPN)
Counter-electrode, gel electrolyte
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
China’s technology opportunities on DSSCs
R&D opportunities
• TiO2 - organic dye - gel electrolyte - platinum counter electrode predict to be the
most promising pathway of DSSCs in recent future.
• Enhancing competitiveness by developing organic dye, gel electrolytes and
platinum counter-electrodes
Competitive opportunities
• CAS Changchun Applied Chemical Institution is the most potential organization.
• Strengthen collaboration with the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
• Keep seeking more cooperation with global leading organizations
• Continuously seeking and producing new, practical, and efficient dyes
Market opportunities
• China’s near-future market will be focused mainly in the home country.
• Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) for country side.
• China has an especially strong capability in dye research
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
China’s challenges on DSSCs
• Japan and South Korea is the most potential competitive in
future market and is on the way of commercialization
• China still has a long way to go for significant
commercialization of DSSCs globally
• It is important to encourage more companies to become
involved in DSSCs.
• China might also consider ways to promote collaboration
between companies and academic institutions.
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Tips
• This research implements a special in-depth analysis on
DSSCs’ component technologies rather than more “macro”
analyses.
•The keywords selection and classification is challenging but
benefits from inputs by knowledgeable colleagues.
•It is important to carefully identify technology morphology
with experts according to the purpose of that analysis.
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Acknowledgements
• This research was undertaken at Georgia Tech drawing on
support from the National Science Foundation (NSF) through
the Center for Nanotechnology in Society (Arizona State
University; Award Numbers 0531194 and 0937591) and the
Science of Science Policy Program—“Measuring and
Tracking Research Knowledge Integration” (Georgia Tech;
Award No. 0830207).
• The findings and observations contained in this paper are
those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views
of the National Science Foundation.
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
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A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
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