RAPID PROTOTYPING TEAM:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Major B.T. Rideout
Rapid Prototyping Team
Comm 703-432-4103
Brian.rideout@usmc.mil
1
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Agenda
• Background / Challenges
• Time, Information Glut, Requirements
• Doctrine & Models
• “Ownership vs. Stewardship”
• Sphere of Influence
• Team Orientation
• Mission Analysis Process & Outputs
• Specified, Implied, Essential, Mission, Restraints,
Constraints, Assumptions, Shortfalls
• Requests for Info
• Risks vs. Issues
• Intent
• FY10 TEEP
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Background Purpose
• Promulgate philosophy behind creation of Rapid
Prototyping Team IOT generate positive,
productive “shaping” discussion
• Provide Mission Analysis “artifacts”
• Gain approval for Rapid Pro Mission Statement
• Receive guidance on TEEP development
• Enable interoperability of future [PM Intel]
capabilities, reduce redundancies and gaps
3
RAPID PRO:
Challenges…
Findings: DoD Wide
• (-) DoD ISR Integration Roadmap does not…
• ID future requirements [and how DoD plans to achieve them]
• ID which requirements are already filled or “saturated”
• ID critical gaps
• ID funding priorities
• Measure progress (quantitative, qualitative)
• Define requirements for global persistent surveillance
• ….or how to use current assets to attain it
• ID enterprise-level architecture of what the ISR enterprise should be
• Show how ISR (existing & future) will fit into a vision for common
architecture to efficiently meet priority ISR requirements or provide
basis for making trade-offs among competing programs
• Provide a basis for determining ‘best value’ mix of present and
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future capabilities WRT place in an ISR architecture
RAPID PRO:
Challenges…
Findings: DoD Wide
• (-) DoD’s approach limits ability to optimize use of available
assets
• Lacks visibility of all ISR assets (theater, tactical)
• Lacks metrics and feedback to evaluate impact of ISR assets
• (-) Delay in delivering new systems leads to unplanned
investments to keep legacy systems relevant
***********************************************************************
• As-Is acquisitions practices perpetuate unshared data islands
• DoD 8320.02 (23 Apr 2007) “Data Sharing” in a Net-Centric DoD
• Shared data (information) access is THE primary “Information
Dominance” enabler.
5
RAPID PRO:
Challenges…
Information Saturation
• Information “Glut”
• Information processing power of current computer based communication
systems far exceed human capacity to process it (Denning 2006)
• Greatest limits to achieving information superiority are cognitive limits and
mobile networking bandwidth (Hayes-Roth 2006)
• Cognition / Bandwidth = Fixed; Data volume increases exponentially
• Solution: Operationally based semantic filtering
• RF centric C2 architecture insufficient to attain Net-Centric Operations.
• Focus on “valuable” and “relevant” bits of data
• Do above in context of time; Filter “noise”
• * VIRT = Valuable Information, Right Time
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* Dr Rick Hayes-Roth, NPS
RAPID PRO:
Challenges
Requirements Shift
• “As-Is” vs. “To-Be”
• Significant MCCDC / OpFor Paradigm shift
VS.
These Fall Down
4600 years – still there….
7
RAPID PRO:
Requirements Pyramid
ICD
MCISR-E,
Intel Roadmap, USMC
Vision & Strategy 2025
CDD x 3
CPD x ? (< 21)
DCGS14, PISR12,
Actionable Intel10
UGS, WFVPS,
EW, etc
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RAPID PRO:
Doctrine & Models
• Goal: Dynamic, scalable organizations capable of
supporting faster, tighter decision spirals from operational
level “planners” to tactical level “executors.”
• Structure must plan, train and equip along these lines.
Intelligence Cycle
Decision Cycle
Planning &
Direction
Utilization
Tactical Spiral
Processing &
Exploitation
Dissemination
Analysis &
Production
Observe
Collection
Orient
Act
Decide
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RAPID PRO:
Deliberate (Analytical) vs. NRT
Intelligence Cycle
I. Deliberate
Model
Planning &
Direction
“Intel for Intel”
Collection
Utilization
Knowledg
e at the
point of
Action
Processing &
Exploitation
Dissemination
II. Near-Real
Time Model
“Intel for the
Executor”
Analysis &
Production
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DOCTRINE & MODELS
Sphere of Influence
G-2, Collection Management
Planning &
Direction
Utilization
Collection
Processing &
Exploitation
Dissemination
DCGS
Analysis &
Production
Surv & Target ID, EW
Rapid Prototyping
Human in the Loop
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Process & Outputs
• Specified Tasks
• Implied Tasks
• Essential Tasks
• Proposed Mission Statement
• Restraints
• Constraints
• Assumptions
• Resource Shortfalls
• People, Funding
• Requests for Information (RFI)
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Specified Tasks
Requirements related…
• Receive, understand, prioritize requirements
• JCIDS/EFDS, UUNS to satisfy changing defense intel needs
• Emphasize functional capability areas described by MCISR-E and
USMC ISR Roadmap
• Provide USMC w/ intelligence means to find, fix, kill enemy
• Coordinate relationships w/ service HQ, MCCDC, OpFor and
other key partners (within Intel Community)
• Continuous MARFOR / OPFOR feedback
• Using units / operator input [anticipate requirements]
Execution related…
• Meet qualitative & quantitative user needs
• ID, develop, deliver, sustain leading edge capabilities
• Experiment with relevant technologies; lay foundation for
future capabilities
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Specified Tasks cont…
Execution cont…
• Pursue innovative technologies w/ emphasis on fullyfunctional and interoperable technologies
•
•
Enhance new concepts/technologies
Shape existing/emerging capabilities; fulfill Intel ‘vision’
• Force interoperability within and across functional areas
(PISR, DCGS, Actionable Intelligence)
• Complete MCDs (1st QTR)
• Develop enterprise PISR architecture
• Establish framework for Rapid Pro processes
• Business processes in place (technology
assessment and integration) that achieve the
synoptic view of the battle-space
• ID Sensor Data Standards (3rd QTR)
• ID, develop, transition material solutions [PORs]
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Specified Tasks cont…
Programmatic Functions related…
• Plan, coordinated, execute (programmatic functions)
•
•
•
Maintain full set of [appropriate] acquisitions documents
• Update APBA, PMP (1st QTR)
Execute available resources ($$)
Maintain the full set of acquisition documents
• * Coordinate relationships w/ service HQ, MCCDC,
OpFor and other key partners (Intel Community)
•
•
Develop stakeholder relationships
Expand pool of technical resources
• Develop efficient / repeatable processes
• Establish TEEP / POA&M
* Also under requirements related
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Implied Tasks
Communication, Coordination, Collaboration (C3)
• Foster open-collaboration (Intra/Inter-Team)
•
•
•
•
Establish communication protocol (bi-monthly, monthly, etc)
Intra / Inter-command (various contractors, DoD Labs, etc)
• Establish and monitor LNOs & mentors throughout
Establish arbitration process (PM Intel) to resolve [potential] conflict
Shape / influence S&T investments, planning and strategy
• Market research; Leverage ongoing RDT&E activities
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Implied Tasks cont…
Acquisitions Execution related…
• Develop Technology Transition Plan
•
•
…efficient, repeatable processes similar to MCPP “Orders
Development” & “Transition”
Evaluate solutions, establish transition “criteria”
• Define process for inserting emerging technologies
•
•
Conduct requirements analysis across the PM (traceability)
• ID gaps; pursue them.
• Understand/map legacy systems, their applications and TTPs
ID POR (increment, ECP), new start (FUE, UUNS) and map a COA
• Develop comprehensive data collection plan to validate FUE
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Implied Tasks cont…
Acquisitions Execution cont…
• Formalize test bed for insertion of new technologies
•
•
ID, develop, evaluate non-material solutions (including training, TTP)
MOA, MOU
• Procure & deliver, fully-functional, sustainable, scalable,
complete systems capable of integrating into new or existing
capability sets
•
Ensure capabilities are in operational context
• Requires facilitating development of non-material solutions:
• Training, TTP
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Implied Tasks cont…
Fiscal related…
• ID available fiscal resources
•
Offensive vs Defensive
• Prepare for budget cuts – link funding to [valid] requirements
• Synchronize internal PPB[E] (PM Intel and across Teams)
w/ external agencies (ONR)
•
Shape allocation of resources that meet our goals
• Institute deliberate fiscal planning processes & procedures
at PM and Team levels
•
•
•
Includes communication protocol
Acquire / Manage funding from POR portfolios into Rapid Pro Team
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*** Recommend PM FMA lead
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Essential Tasks
•
•
•
•
(Specified) Meet qualitative & quantitative user needs
Identify/develop, deliver, and sustain leading edge
capabilities
(Specified) Pursue innovative technologies w/ emphasis
on fully-functional and interoperable technologies
(Implied) Procure & deliver, fully-functional, sustainable,
scalable, complete systems capable of integrating into
new or existing capability sets
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RAPID PRO: TASK TRACEABILITY
Provide USMC w/
intelligence
means to find, fix,
kill the enemy
Fulfill Intel material
& associated
requirements for
USMC Op For
Establish appropriate
Gov mechanisms for
sensing, processing &
dissemination systems
Execute
available $$
resources
Meet cost, schedule,
performance guidance
established by MCCDC
Seek mutually
supporting effects for
solutions & processes
Plan, coordinate,
execute full range of
programmatic functions
Interact with
Operational Forces
Meet
qualitative &
quantitative
user needs
Develop, deliver, sustain
leading edge capabilities
Pursue innovative
technology
Specified Essential (Msn)
Specified Supporting (Msn)
Specified Supported (Intent)
Specified Supporting (Intent)
Pursue future
capabilities in MCISR-E
and USMC ISR Roadmap
Execute & Supervise
key functions:
Engineering, contracts,
fiscal mgmt, logistics
Implement mechanisms for data
exposure & discovery; develop
dissemination & distribution tech
to deliver data to tactical level
Shape existing &
emerging capabilities;
fulfill Intel “vision”
Pursue seamless interop
of sensors for x-cue,
persistence, redundancy
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TASK TRACEABILITY CONT…
Experiment with relevant
technologies; lay foundation
for future capabilities
Develop, deliver, sustain
leading edge capabilities
Emphasize functional
capability areas in MCISR-E:
PISR, DCGS, Actionable Intel
Pursue innovative
technology
Rapidly deliver innovative
technology; enhance
existing capabilities
Pursue future
capabilities in MCISR-E
and USMC ISR Roadmap
Enable future operating
concepts: Enhanced Company
Operations supported by
Company Level Intel Cell,
Specified Essential (Msn)
Specified Supporting (Msn)
Specified Supported (Intent)
Specified Supporting (Intent)
Emphasize functional
capability areas in MCISR-E:
PISR, DCGS, Actionable Intel
Seek exercise venues; gather
system performance data &
user feedback
Develop stakeholder
relationships; expand pool of
technical resources
Force interoperability w/in &
across these functional areas;
create enterprise architecture
where data flows freely & rapidly
Across Intel &
Decision Cycles
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Proposed Mission Statement
• On Order, the Rapid Prototyping Team will pursue,
identify, assess, develop and rapidly deliver leading
edge technologies emphasizing fully-functional and
interoperable capabilities that fulfill the spectrum of
intelligence requirements IOT meet the qualitative
and quantitative user needs that enable Marines to
find, fix, or kill the enemy in all operating
environments.
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Mission Traceability
Rapid Prototyping Proposed Mission
• On Order, the Rapid Prototyping Team will pursue, identify, assess, develop and
rapidly deliver leading edge technologies emphasizing fully-functional and
interoperable capabilities that fulfill the spectrum of intelligence requirements IOT meet
the qualitative and quantitative user needs that enable Marines to find, fix, or kill the
enemy in all operating environments.
PM Intelligence Mission
• PM, Intel plans, coordinates, and executes the full range of programmatic functions to
fulfill intelligence materiel and associated requirements for Marine Corps operating
forces, ensuring all solutions meet cost, schedule, and performance criteria established
by Marine Corps Combat Development Command. We aggressively execute available
fiscal resources, relentlessly pursue innovative technology, and continuously interact
with operating forces, in order to develop, deliver, and sustain capabilities that
provide Marines with intelligence means to find, fix, and kill enemy forces in all
operating environments.
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Restraints
• Cannot violate:
• DoD 5000;
• Statutory/regulatory processes
• JCIDS requirements development process
25
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Constraints (we must…)
Fiscal
• Execute funding under MIP scrutiny
• Meet / Exceed execution thresholds
Requirements
• Operate effectively in the absence of appropriate / approved
requirements documents
• Serve as focal point for all UUNS, UNS, JUONS
• Revisit outdated [legacy] requirements
• Ensure requirements traceability for all Rapid Pro actions
• Optimize commonality among systems; achieve “synoptic”
view of battle space
• Ensure [potential] solutions are associated w/ viable CONOPS
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prior to transition
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Constraints
Testing, IA, Contracts
• Develop ‘gate checks’ to increase efficiency of market
research
• C&A IOT connect systems to network(s)
• Formal Test & Evaluation (T&E) – level TBD (based on ACAT)
• ID T&E activities
• ID and leverage existing services already accredited and/or on
contract (w/ available ceiling and PoP)
• Use agile contracting vehicles (multiple classifications) to test,
acquire and field emerging capabilities / solutions
• Ensure enhanced sustainment packages are available and/or
written into SOWs prior to transition
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Constraints
Architecture
• Reutilize hardware and software modules to the extent possible
• Ensure Enterprise level configuration control
Risk
• Address risk management (RM) IAW DoD RM strat & policies
• An “issue” is present tense – another Team’s challenge
• Rapid Pro IDs and mitigates risks, i.e. “future root causes”
Higher Guidance
• Cultivate productive relationships w/ those KEY partners who
enable success; Limit investments in non-productive
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relationships
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Assumptions
• OCO/Supplements (including ISR TF $) will end after FY10
• Core [MIP] Funding will not be affected by upcoming cuts
• Existing staff/personnel remain intact
• PORs will fund Rapid Pro efforts entirely (or in part)
Erroneous
• Rapid Pro Team will play key role in Resetting The Force
(RTF); replacements to include new (modernized) equipment
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RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Assumptions cont…
• Requirements Traceability Matrix (RTM) effort will reveal
gaps (to exploit) AND redundancies (to reduce)
• MCCDC will concur w/ Requirements “Pyramid” approach
and develop an Actionable Intelligence CDD
• An Incremental, Evolutionary Enterprise [PISR]
Architecture will [eventually] span BOTH PM Intel & PM IDF&D
• USMC will conform (in practice) to a knowledge-based
approach to ISR system development (as provided by DoD
policy)
• That we’ll all have the patience to do this……right.
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Personnel
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Resource Shortfalls
• (1) Info Assurance Manager (IAM)
• ID status and work first ___% of emerging solutions IOT reduce
C&A timeline for PORs
• Interface w/ PM IAM, SIAT, other team IAMs; maintain [holistic]
enterprise perspective on C&A status, potential redundancies, etc.
• (1) Transition Team Lead (TTL)
• Not a collateral duty; dedicated to the receiving TL, PO and staff
Training, logistics (fielding, sustainment) IA, contracts.
• (-) Reassigning under current Org hinders team’s effectiveness to ID
next innovative/emerging tech
• (+) SME cell fulfills role?
• (1) Logistician / Provisioners (support to TTL)
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• Interface w/ PORs; establish TAMCN / NSN (accountability,
TFSMS, LOGCOM); work initial sustainment plans, field equipment
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Resource Shortfalls
Personnel cont…
• (1) S/W Engineer
• SME to screen, assess, mitigate integration and PDSS risks, verify
interoperability, ID “good” components worth keeping (evolutionary)
• (1) “S&T” Engineer
• Preferred acquisitions / requirements background with familiarity of
SATCOM, TENCAP, IA, EW, HUMINT/IMINT/SIGINT/MASINT
• Sufficient knowledge on product technologies and design before
committing to development/demonstration of new systems
• (1) T&E SME
• Old model of funding a matrix [someone “on staff”] will not suffice w/ Rapid
Pro pace
• (1) Warranted Contract Officer (independent)
• Experienced, connected, master “Artist”
• Access to lightweight, swift, ‘external’ vehicles
• (?) LNOs
32
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Resource Shortfalls
Other…
• Tools that create and reinforce “effectiveness”
• Collaboration: facilitate cross-team and cross-PM communication
(inter and intra) to expedite turnaround, increase day-to-day
efficiencies
• Interim solutions:
• Internal Fiscal DB, Collaboration S/W, Sharepoint
• PM Roadmap
• Synchronized w/ [TBD] Intel Roadmap
• ReOrg “Campaigning” (MCCDC, I Dept, MARFORs)
• Ex > RadBn Mods  RREP  TPCS  TCAC
• Roles & responsibilities, boundaries, procedure for
injection, charters that bind us to “our” business and hold us
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[all] accountable for outcomes
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Requests for Information
or “Clarification”
• What does the PM mean about “quantitative” WRT RPT?
• Will RPT serve as a funding pool responding to emerging T/E
shortfalls, i.e., AAO increases from OpTempo, RTF?
• Roles & responsibilities of Gov FBAs to the PM, TLs, POs?
• Ensure effective, efficient employment of subordinate Gov & CTR
FBAs
• Request PM prioritize funding requirements
• Where are your critical “gaps”?
34
RAPID PRO:
Team Risks vs. Issues
• Risk (defined)
….A measure of future uncertainties in achieving program performance goals and objectives
within defined cost, schedule and performance constraints.
• Future root cause (the basic reason for risk)
• Probability of future root cause
• Consequence of future occurrence
• RPT deals w/ Risks
• Issue (defined)
….A root cause described in the past tense (it’s already occurred, and hence, is an issue that
needs to be resolved; not a risk)
• STI & EM Teams deal w/ Issues (and Risks)
• RPT attempts to mitigate/minimize those Risks WRT new
technologies
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RAPID PRO:
Risks
• Resistance to inter-team “business” procedures
• Sensitivities: Budget, people, time
• Mitigation: Rapid Pro is “front-end” until [defined] transition point
• Too Much, Too Soon
• Low profile w/ top cover
• Mitigation: Start small, think BIG, work incrementally
(Evolutionary); ensure “contagious successes”
• Redundancy Perception
• NDIA, PISR CBA (*MCCDC), RPT “Architecture” Development
(MCDC), Common Sensor Panel (Dahlgren), Joint PISR ICD, SCI CBA
• Mitigation: Resist urge to prematurely ‘advertise’, communicate
intent to stakeholders, implant competent LNOs
• [New system] delivery delays will incur more
investments in legacy systems IOT keep them
relevant/operational until replacements arrive
36
RAPID PRO:
Top 10 Indicators we’re going to Screw-Up
Complex Systems Acquisitions
10. Assume somebody understands and will make it work
9. Assume there’s a successful process in place
8. Assume that really precise requirements turn into successful systems
and don’t think through and prioritize essential qualities
7. Assume that success is so frequent you’re not really in mortal danger
6. Assume you can just use existing components and put them together in a new way
5. Trust a contractor to do it right
4. Don’t recognize that new systems are much riskier than
yet another product variant from an established product line architecture
3. Don’t have a chief architect with real responsibility and power
who has a credible vision that others can really understand
2. Don’t bother to demand that the process is really credible to the key participants
1. Don’t employ an incremental, evolutionary approach
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Dr Rick Hayes-Roth, NPS
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Why Architecture?
“Without an enterprise-level architecture and an
ongoing, comprehensive data-driven analysis of
the most efficient solutions, it is not clear how DoD
can be assured that it is developing and fielding
the ISR capabilities that most efficiently and
effectively fill gaps and reduce redundancies.”
GAO: ISR Preliminary Observations on DoD’s Approach to Managing
Requirements for New Systems…. GAO-07-596T
38
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Why Architecture?
• Define and Develop the “value-delivery chain”
• Better speed to better capability
• “Operationalize” S&T efforts
• Make ‘bleeding edge’ the ‘state of practice’
• Operationally describe “semantic interoperability”
• Need Information Exchange Model
• Accelerate collaboration of Intelligence Data
• Rich Semantic Model capable of tracking events
• Use Technology like a “Firestorm”
• Deliver synoptic view of the battlespace to
Battlefield Commanders
• Systems that complement one another
• Ensure “repeatability”
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RAPID PRO:
Architecture Stakeholders
Universities /
Industry
Academic
Collaborative
“Hub”
Academia
Academia
Academia
C4T
TNT
NPS
- Quarterly Test-bed
- Integration across
platforms, domains
SOCOM
Lead
Architect
ITSFAC
ONR
MCSC
- Legacy Program Management
- System Integrators
MCCDC
Lead
Requirements
TNT Sponsor
Lead S&T
Lead
Manager
Dahlgren
LANL
Lead WAAS
& Terrest Sensor
S/W Integration
Common
Sensor
Panel
40
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Team Intent
Our Mission requires taking bold action where others have failed.
We need acquisitions “Force Multipliers.”
Specifically, we should:
• Enable interoperability of future [PM Intel] capabilities
• Reduce [procurement] redundancies
• Anticipate, ID and exploit capabilities gaps
• Provide a basis for determining ‘best value’ mix of present and
future capabilities WRT their place in a PISR architecture
• Facilitate development of that PISR architecture
• * Empower & engage our teammates in developing AND
documenting high-impact processes they believe in
41
* Dr Rick Hayes-Roth, NPS
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Team Intent cont…
Specifically, we should:
• * Focus on services that matter; deliver valued information at the right time
• * Seize and invest in Order of Magnitude improvements
• * Aggressively foster Evolution
• Discard failure and/or waste; reinforce success
• Improve faster than your competitors
• * Give our customer(s) a better experience
• * Measure outcomes including the processes that delivered them
• Measure value per cost (ROI)
• Measure risk per reward & opportunity
• Let the customer measure
• Adjust policies based on measured outcomes
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* Dr Rick Hayes-Roth, NPS
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Team Intent cont…
Endstate:
An agile, scalable sub-organization capable of dynamically
responding to emergent requirements that balance intelligence
“ownership” vs. “stewardship.” Specifically, we should seek material
and non-material solutions that serve a traditional [doctrinal]
intelligence cycle while simultaneously delivering valuable information
at the right time to achieve the right ‘effects.’
We must enable our war-fighters with “knowledge at the point of
action.”
43
RAPID PRO:
MISSION ANALYSIS
Annual Execution Plan
“TEEP for Team”
Oct-Dec 2009
Jan-Mar 2010
Apr-June 2010
•RTM Draft
•PISR Arch SOW
to NPS
•TNT exposure
[RadBn Mods]
•Spend Plans
•Draft “Gatechecks” for Tech
Assessment
•RTM refined
•Est & Define
RPT business
processes
•Draft Tech Trans
Plan
•Stabilize staff;
Est LNO/Comm &
Collab plan
•Define sensor
data standards
•Tech Trans
refined (final)
•Refine
LNO/Comm plan
between Teams
•Execute all FY10
funding
Jul-Sept 2010
•Integrate PISR
CDD (MCCDC)
•PISR Arch
Prototype
delivered
•EC10 demo PM
Intel PISR
Integration
• Develop PISR Architecture in conjunction w/ partners (NPS, etc)
• Screen relevant, credible technologies that fulfill PM Intel “Gaps”
• Execute Funding IAW MIP thresholds
44