Skills required to support potential
economic growth in the NI sustainable
energy sector
Rob Williams
Belfast, 7th September 2011
Presentation Structure
1. Scope
2. Approach
3. Results
• Current sector size and nature
• Prospects and barriers
• Skills supply vs. demand
4. Conclusions and policy remarks
Scope
• To achieve the following outputs:
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
Estimate the current size of the Sustainable Energy (SE)
sector in NI
Estimate the future potential growth rates in the SE
subsectors
Model the staff / skills profiles in each of the sectors
Apply the growth rates to the current sector size and
profile to estimate future skills needs
Analyse the current supply of relevant skills
Compare the supply of skills to the future demand for
skills to illustrate what gaps between supply and demand
may develop
Scope – Sustainable Energy Sectors
•
•
•
•
Integrated Building Technology
◦ Energy efficiency and renewables in new and existing
buildings.
◦ Large energy user, large amounts of buildings to be
refurbished, large employer.
Offshore Energy
◦ Offshore wind, wave and tidal.
◦ Large resource, wind developing, wave and tidal research
skills.
Bioenergy
◦ Production and utilisation of biomass for energy.
◦ Large resource and new and diversified employment
opportunities.
Energy Storage
◦ Storage of electricity (and gas), Smart grid.
◦ Key enabling technology with global potential.
Approach
• Involved a combination of:
◦
Literature review, company survey (140 from 450),
consultations (40+), workshop and modelling
• Sector size and profile
◦
◦
◦
◦
•
Based on BIS Low Carbon and Environmental Goods and
Services (LCEGS) descriptions
Fractions of the four digit SIC codes – number of
companies employment, GVA
Reality tested via consultations and survey
Typical skills profiles for sectors, refined via survey
Market growth
◦ Annual growth rates to 2020
◦ Wide variety of sources, low to high scenarios
◦ Not just NI, not aiming at ‘self sufficiency’
Current Sector Size and Nature
Current (2010) Estimate of the Turnover and Size of the Sustainable Energy Sector in NI
Sustainable Energy
Sector GVA £m
Number of companies
Employment
Integrated Building Technology
92.1
634
1,798
Offshore Energy
31.7
94
476
Bio Energy
26.0
239
1,106
Energy Storage
25.6
73
526
Total
175.4
1,040
3,906
0.92%
1.52%
0.56%
Share of NI Total (GVA, No.
companies and Employment)
Source: Ecorys Modelling
•
Confident in order of magnitude, but estimate
– Part of larger sectors
– Fast moving and fluid
– International
Current Sector Size and Nature
NI SE Sectors
SOC 9 Elementary
Occupations
5%
SOC 8 Process,
Plant and Machine
Operations
20%
SOC 2 Professional
Occupations
19%
SOC 6 Personal
Service
Occupations
2%
Source: Ecorys Modelling
•
SOC 1 Managers
and Senior Officials
17%
SOC 9 Elementary
Occupations
10%
SOC 8 Process,
Plant and Machine
Operations
9%
SOC 7 Sales and
Customer Service
Occupations
5%
SOC 5 Skilled
Trades
Occupations
15%
Whole NI Economy
SOC 4
Administrative and
Secretarial
Occupations
9%
SOC 3 Associate
Professional and
Technical
Occupations
8%
SOC 1 Managers
and Senior Officials
11%
SOC 2 Professional
Occupations
12%
SOC 7 Sales and
Customer Service
Occupations
7%
SOC 3 Associate
Professional and
Technical
Occupations
12%
SOC 6 Personal
Service
Occupations
9%
SOC 5 Skilled
Trades
Occupations
16%
SOC 4
Administrative and
Secretarial
Occupations
14%
Labour force survey
Staffing profile
◦ High skilled
◦ Manufacturing focus, lower input from sales and support
◦ Technology development, some at early stage
Prospects and Barriers
Annual Growth Rates to 2020 for Sustainable Energy Sectors (and Sub-sectors)
Sub Sector
Annual Growth of Market Size to 2020 (%)
Low
Central
High
Integrated Building Technology
5.5
10
15
Offshore - wind
17
27
32
Offshore - wave, tidal
7
26.5
40
Bioenergy -electricity
5.7
6.7
29
Bioenergy -heat
3.9
9.4
22
Bioenergy -transport
6.2
9.5
13.8
3
4
6
Energy storage
•
•
Multiple sources. E.g. – BIS, Renewable Energy Action
Plans, Sustainable Energy Authority Ireland
If NI is to meet 40% of its electricity demand from renewables
by 2020, generation would need to grow by 13% per year
Supply of Skills
– Large proportion of skills and educational requirements of
the SE sector are not new
– Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) core
skills are key.
– FE and HE provision of entirely relevant courses (e.g.
electrical engineering) and relevant units within other
courses (e.g. biomass within a land management course).
– Carbon Zero Project – collated existing provision and
helped develop new and additional. 526 enrolled in 09/10.
– Some strong research and teaching skills in HE – e.g.
Questor at Queen's, UU School of the Built Environment.
– FE has large numbers enrolled in relevant areas (e.g.
2009/10 - 7,172 engineering and 9,781 construction)
– Had to estimate what % of ‘generalists’ will go into SE
Demand vs. Supply
Demand
- Projected to
increase from ~500
annually in 2011 to
>860 in 2015
(central)
5000
High
4500
Annual SE skilled workers required
Supply
- Base skills
(engineering)
allocated to and
between sectors by
relative size
- Est. ~350 skilled
people supplied
each year
Projections of Skiiled Worker Requirements in the Sustainable
Energy Sector in NI
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
Central
1680
1500
1000
863
500
420
Low
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Demand v Supply
• Annual gap between supply
& demand, est ~175 / year
Average Annual Gap Between Skills Demand and
Supply for the Sustainable Energy Sector in NI
125
Offshore Energy
100
Integrated
Building
Technology
75
Individuals
• Biggest gaps in Offshore
Energy and IBT
• Only small / no shortages in
Bioenergy and Energy
Storage
50
25
• Total gap of around 900 by
2015
– Over 500 in Offshore
Energy
Energy Storage
0
Bio Energy
-25
Conclusions (and uncertainties)
Demand
– Clearest short term need in offshore wind
– Demand in IBT and Bioenergy should grow steadily
– Strong medium to long term opportunities in wave, tidal and
the Smart Grid
– Government energy policy lead and clarity is key to
demand
– There is a need for multidisciplinary skilled workers
– Export focus for NI companies is vital for growth, but needs
support
– Availability of funds to support courses, upgrade the grid
and provide other SE growth assistance is an issue
Conclusions (and uncertainties)
Supply
– The decline in numbers of those pursuing high level
mechanical and electrical engineering courses is a concern
– Co-ordination between skills providers is growing and
should continue to be encouraged
– Some skills gaps could be filled by attracting back expatriot NI workers
– Supporting and developing STEM skills is arguably more
important than trying to match specific needs
Conclusions (and uncertainties)
Supply vs. Demand
– Multiple assumptions required introduce uncertainty
– Ideal to match supply and demand
◦ Avoid over and under supply
◦ Requires close cooperation between companies and skills
providers
◦ Could export ‘surplus’ skills
◦ High risk to use public funds in anticipation of demand
– Skills need of large incoming SE companies best met by
providing labour market entrants with STEM skills
Policy Remarks - Short Term
Skills Provision
• Develop capacity in offshore / marine technician training
Skills Policy
• Consider ensuring relevant FE course are on the priority
support list
• Support apprenticeships in SE
Other
• Use SE to promote STEM skills
Policy Remarks - Medium Term
Skills Provision
•
Continue the dialogue between industry government and skills providers in
order to anticipate and meet specific skills needs as they emerge
•
Develop capacity to retain the developed skills in Integrated Building
Technology
•
Modify the content and branding of some HE courses to include SE content
and references
.
Skills Policy
•
Link with Scotland and the rest of the UK in SE promotion and skills
development
•
Continue to support the developing SE specialisations of the FE providers
Other
•
Ensure that the planned efforts to publicise and present the policy vision for
SE in NI reach industry and the general public effectively
•
Communication and education by the network owner and operator and the
Utility Regulator on the plans and efforts underway to improve the structural
integrity and energy storage potential of the grid
•
Continue support for SMEs wishing to enter, or increase their activity in, the
SE sector
Policy Pointers - Longer Term
Skills Provision
• Retain and develop the SE skills in the HE sector
Other
• Consider linking to future ‘Homecoming / C’Mon Over’
campaigns (or equivalent) to attract back ex patriot workers
in SE.
Thank you
Contact Details
Rob Williams
Associate Director
0121 212 8856
07920 494 798
rob.williams@uk.ecorys.com