Iranian Ballistic Missile
Capabilities
Michael Elleman
Senior Fellow for Missile Defence
International Institute for Strategic Studies
22 November 2010
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Iran is successfully
developing ballistic missiles
with the aim of giving the
Islamic Republic the
capability to deliver warheads
well beyond its borders;
But the worst-case scenario
ten years ago about Iran
being able to develop an
ICBM capable of striking the
US within five years has not
materialised.
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Iran Has the Largest, Most Diverse Missile
Inventory in the Middle East
Missile
Translation
Fuel type
Estimated range
Payload
Note
Zelzal-1
Earthquake-1
Solid
125km
600 kg
Unguided
Zelzal-2
Earthquake-2
Solid
200km
600 kg
Unguided
Fateh-110
Victorious
Solid
200-250km
500kg
M-600??
Sajjil-2
Baked Clay-2
Solid
2200–2400km
750kg
Testing
Shahab-1
Meteor-1
Liquid
300km
1000kg
Scud-B
Shahab-2
Meteor-2
Liquid
500km
730kg
Scud-C
Qiam-1
Rising
Liquid
500km
700kg
Testing
Shahab-3
Meteor-3
No-Dong
Liquid
800–1000km
Ghadr-1
Powerful-1
Liquid
1600km
760–1100kg
750kg
Deployed?
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Simorgh- SLV
Iranian Missile Capabilities
Shahab-3 Shahab-3M
Ghadr-1
Safir- SLV
Kavoshgar
Shahab-1/2
Scud Engine
Based on Nodong Engine
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Liquid Propellant Systems
Steps Toward a Safir MRBM
1500
Shahab-3
Payload Mass [kg]
Shahab-1
Ghadr-1
Four Scud-Engine
missile
Iran’s
Requirement
1000
Existing
Missiles
Safir MRBM
Shahab-2
New
System
500
New
Airframe
Added
2nd Stage
0
0
500
1000
1500
Range [km]
2000
2500
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Simorgh satellite launcher
development is part of an
ambitious space program
with the goal of placing a
man in space by the end
of this decade.
Inaugural launch
scheduled for next year.
Basis for an IRBM?
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Solid Propellant Systems
Fateh-110A
Iran is the only country to have
developed a missile of the Sajjil2’s reach without first having
developed a nuclear weapon.
Ashura/Sajjil-2
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Military Utility
Kill Probabily vs. Missile Accuracy
Number of Missiles Needed to Reliably Destroy a
Hardened Target
1
200
400
600
800
1000
Hardened Structure
0.1
10000
Lethal
Shahab-1
0.01
Ghadr-1
0.001
0.0001
CEP [m]
Number of Missiles Required
Kill or Destruction Probability
0
1000
90% Confidence
Ghadr-1
Shahab-1
100
75% Confidence
50% Confidence
10
1
Iran’s missiles lack the accuracy
to be militarily effective.
0
200
600
400
CEP [m]
But, they could be used as a terror weapon, designed to sow fear and
degrade political resolve; casualties would likely be limited to a few
hundred.
800
1000
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Nuclear warheads have
a much stronger
strategic logic, if Iran
can make a bomb small
enough.
The most likely delivery
platform for a notional
Iranian nuclear weapon
would be the Ghadr-1,
or possibly the Shahab3.
After development, the
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Development of the Sajjil-2
may have been prompted by
concerns that a one-ton,
first generation bomb
design could not be
delivered to Israel by the
Ghadr-1, unless launched
from positions along the
Iran-Iraq border, where the
launcher and missile would
be vulnerable to preemptive strikes.
One Ton
Bomb
w/RV
Ghadr-1 w/
One ton bomb
Likely Sajjil
performance
maximum
minimum
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Status of Iran’s Missile Industries
Iran has invested heavily to establish an indigenous production
capacity
– Considerable success to date; but still dependent on foreign sources for
key components, materials and manufacturing equipment
– Solid-propellant industries more capable than Liquid-fueled counterparts
• Cannot develop new liquid-fueled engine indigenously
• Could produce larger solid-propellant motors with minimal foreign assistance
Established disciplined, robust engineering management
processes which enables future developments
– Capable of introducing moderately sophisticated countermeasures
Missiles will remain inaccurate
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Future Missiles: What and When ?
Liquid-Propellant missiles constrained by limited technology
base; no new engine development possible
• Intercontinental Missile (ICBM) would be more than 100 tons
• Available engines sufficient for future space launch vehicles
• Man in space by 2019?
Three stage Sajjil missile possible (3500km)
• Two to five year flight test program
Second generation Intermediate Range Missile (IRBM) at least
six to ten years away, based on experiences elsewhere
• Four year flight test program – minimum time
Based on Iran’s history, IRBM development before an ICBM
Notional, 9000km ICBM at least a decade away
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Recent Developments
Old Conical RV
New RV
Separation
plane
Fins
No Fins
Scud/Shahab-1/-2
Qiam
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Recent Developments
Separation Plane
Centre of
Gravity
~ 88cm
60-61cm
Fuse
~1.3m
Volume for Weapons Payload
Qiam Nosecone length
Ghadr-1 Nosecone length
Common warhead for all missiles?
1.25 m
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
Unknowns
DPRK Military Parade on
11 October 2010
Nodong resembling the
Ghadr-1
R-27/ BM-25/ Musudan
Joint Development Efforts?
Iranian Ballistic Missile Capabilities
BM-25 (Musudan, R-27)
Russian R-27 developed as a submarine launched missile
• Capable of 2400km range, with 650 kg warhead
• Enhanced performance propellants (UDMH-N2O4)
Must be modified for use as a road-mobile missile
• Structural reinforcements required
• Oxidizer very sensitive to temperature changes;
missile must be thermally protected
Musudan has been lengthened, and reinforced?
Range-Payload performance similar to original R-27
• Enhanced accuracy possible if state-of-the-art
navigation units incorporated, but unlikely
Musudan/BM-25 is a NEW MISSILE; has not been flight
tested!!
Musudan