WORKING GROUPS
- SCENARIOS AND GUIDANCE -
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…from George Solhan’s Presentation
Understanding ROMO
Understanding the Human Environment
Understanding Power and Influence
Understanding the Environment
Anthropology
Criminology
Communication
Sciences
Education
Economics
Geography
Political Science
Psychology
Religion
Sociology
Others…
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MULTI-SCALE INTERACTIONS
SCALE
Dynamic and Unstructured Environment
Society
Macro
Organization
Meso
Micro
Individual
Collective
interactions
form a group
Group and societal
influences affect individuals
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SCENARIOS AND WORKING GROUPS
ROMO
Human Environ.
Environ.
Power/Influence
- What are the key disciplines?
- What are the key elements of the
disciplines?
- What are the key interfaces between the
disciplines?
- What are the key interfaces between the
disciplines and the other three
environments (ROMO, Power, Human)?
- How do we decompose these into building
blocks so that hypotheses can be posed
and tested?
From the building blocks, can we create a
matrix of relevance across
- Phases of ROMO
- Power dimensions
- Human dimensions
Each Group will Deconstruct, Mix, and Re-construct
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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP
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SCENARIO
1: EGYPT
SCENARIO
1: EGYPT
RISESRISES
UP UP
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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP
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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP
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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP
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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP
Multi-Scale Interactions
TIME
10 Days:
Uprising
30 Years: Mubarak Rule
-
Spontaneous
Massive
Peaceful
Popular
Secular (Islam
Orderly or Chaotic
Transition?
What will be the nature
of this transition?
not center stage)
PEOPLE
Individuals
Mubarak: Autocrat
Groups
Society
Individuals In Egypt
1000s
Egypt: 85 Million People
Hundreds of 1000s
World: 350 Million Arabs
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SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP
Autocracy leads to upheaval.
Democracy is best guarantor of stability.
ROMO
Human Environ.
4-5 (Security, Stability, Civil
Authority)
Power/Influence
Mubarak
- Autocrat; clings to power; intimidation
- Brutal and corrupt police force
Muslim Brothers
- Anti-West, Anti-Israel
- 20% popularity, but falling
Military
- Control streets, respected by people
West
- Influence political, business, & military elite
- Help speed transition to order
Democratic Egypt
- Beacon to region
- Help incorporate Arab democracies
- Settlement w/ Palestinians
Environ.
- Generally poor
- Sophisticated elite
- Well educated middle
class
- Strong sense of national
pride
- Unemployed youth (@
20%)
- Digitally driven (internet)
- What are the key
disciplines?
- What are the key elements
of the disciplines?
- What are the key
interfaces between the
disciplines?
- What are the key
interfaces between the
disciplines and the other
three environments (ROMO,
Power, Human)?
- How do we decompose these
so that hypotheses can be
posed and tested?
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SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY
Countering Violent Extremists
Sadik Harchaoui, Chair of the Board of Directors
of the Institute for Multicultural Development
FORUM, the Netherlands.
FORUM is an independent knowledge institute
and centre of expertise for multicultural affairs.
FORUM operates out of the frame of reference of
the democratic constitutional state, social
cohesion and shared citizenship.
National Coordinator for Counterterrorism (NCTb), July 2010
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SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY
Countering Violent Extremists
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SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY
Countering Violent Extremists
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SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY
Countering Violent Extremists
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SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY
Countering Violent Extremists
Footnotes
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SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY
Countering Violent Extremists
Human Environ.
ROMO
0
Power/Influence
(Shape, Prevent, Prepare)
Jihadi Extremists
- West is enemy of Islam
- Counter West with jihad
Western Governments (local & national)
- De-radicalization and rehabilitation programs
- Empower liberal Muslims
Civil society (non-state) Actors
- NGO’s
o Bring credibility
o Well equipped to engage in dialogue
- Local & regional networks
Islamic and Arabic World
Soft Power – ability to get what you want
through attraction rather than coercion or
payments
Environ.
- Doubts about democratic,
political, or personnel
legitimacy of system
- Socio-economic influences
- Ethnic-cultural positions
- State propaganda may
further antagonize
- Ordinary citizens willing to
build bridges between
cultures
- Popular artists and sportsmen
acting as ambassadors
- What are the key
disciplines?
- What are the key elements
of the disciplines?
- What are the key
interfaces between the
disciplines?
- What are the key
interfaces between the
disciplines and the other
three environments (ROMO,
Power, Human)?
- How do we decompose these
so that hypotheses can be
posed and tested?
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SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY
Multi-Scale Interactions
TIME
Radicalization – slow and gradual process
NGO’s – Relationship building
NGO’s – Daily communications
Years
Days
PEOPLE
Individuals
Groups
Society
Citizens
- Against extremism
- Rank and file with more practical and ordinary motivations
- Alienated or estranged; ideologically, religiously, or ethnically motivated
Civil Society (non-state) Actors
- Gain financial and logistical support from government
- Must remain independent from government to retain credibility
Governments
- Draw on expertise of society and business
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Understanding ROMO
0
Shape
1
Deter
2
Seize
Initiative
3
Dominate
4
Stabilize
5
Enable Civil
Anthropology
Criminology
Communication
Sciences
Education
Economics
Geography
Political Science
Psychology
Religion
Sociology
Other
Other
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RANGE OF MILITARY OPERATIONS (ROMO) PHASES
Phase 0
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Shape
Deter
Seize Initiative
Dominate
Stabilize
Enable Civil
Prevent, Prepare
Crisis defined
Assure friendly freedom of action / access theater infrastructure
Establish dominant force capabilities / achieve full-spectrum superiority
Establish security and restore services
Transfer to civil authority and redeploy
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Understanding Power & Influence
Tribalism
Religious
State
Fundamental
-ism
Traditional
-ism
Democracy
Zionism
Other
Anthropology
Criminology
Communication
Sciences
Education
Economics
Geography
Political Science
Psychology
Religion
Sociology
Other
Other
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Understanding the Human Environment
Physiology
Safety /
Security
Belonging
Esteem
Self Actualization
Other
Anthropology
Criminology
Communication
Sciences
Education
Economics
Geography
Political Science
Psychology
Religion
Sociology
Other
Other
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