The Council of Australian Governments has agreed to a national framework for reform of the vocational education and training system
– a more flexible and demand-driven training system
– greater contestability of funding for public training and greater competition between providers
– support for TAFE as the public provider
– greater transparency in the system to support informed choices by employers and students
– a drive for improved quality
2

Make NSW the number one for growth and jobs
NSW 2021: A Plan to Make NSW Number One:
– 50 per cent increase in the proportion of people between the ages of 20 and 64 with qualifications at Certificate III and above
– 100 per cent increase in completions of higher-level qualifications at Diploma and above
– 20 per cent increase in the number of completions of higher-level qualifications at
Certificate III and above by women, Aboriginal students and students in rural and regional
New South Wales by 2020
We must adapt our vocational education and training system to meet changing needs
3

New South Wales leads in high end services
NSW industry composition 2010
Construction
7.6%
Manufacturing
9.8%
Utilities 2.4%
Services
74.6%
The NSW economy: over 30 per cent of Australia’s economy
GSP worth over $400 billion generates $56 billion in exports largest share of private investment
74.6 per cent of high-end services
Note: Figures refer to industry gross value added.
Source: Access Economics (2010) The NSW Economy in 2020: A foresighting Study: Report prepared for the NSW Innovation Council.
4

Growth depends on participation and especially productivity, with 86% of those available already working
Economic Growth
Participation Productivity
10% 4% 7%
Fully Employed
Fully Employed
79%
5

Without intervention, there will be less growth in productivity and participation
1,9%
1,8%
1,8%
1,7%
1,7%
1,6%
1,6%
1,5%
Forecast annual growth in productivity, 2009 and 2050
1.8%
Past 40 years
1.6% 59%
58%
Next 40 years
57%
66%
65%
64%
63%
62%
61%
60%
Forecast participation rate,
2009 and 2050
65%
Past 40 years
Ageing will reduce participation to
1970s levels
2,0
1,8
1,6
1,4
1,2
1,0
60%
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
Next 40 years
Projections of annual growth in real GDP per capita (living standards), 2009 and 2050
1.9%
Past 40 Years
Lower growth means $8,800 less per person
1.5%
Next 40 Years
Source: Australian Government (2010) Australia to 2050: future challenges. The 2010 Intergenerational Report.
6

The more you learn, the more you earn
$1 534
$496
$671
NSW median weekly earnings (2009) = $863
$896
$431
$959
$1 151
Year 11 Year 12 Certificate I/II Certificate III/IV Advanced
Diploma/Diploma
Bachelor Degree Graduate
Diploma/Graduate
Certificate or above
Source: ABS, Education and Training Experience (2009), Cat. No. 6278.055.
7

Future growth will be in high skill industries
1990-2020
This sector will soar in importance, but will not grow in workforce size
This sector will employ significantly more people
This sector will shrink and decline in economic importance
Source: Access Economics, Economic modelling of skills demand (2009); ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly (2010), Cat. No. 6291.0.55.003; ABS, Australian
National Accounts: State Accounts (2009), Cat. No. 5220.0.
8

NSW economy – future skills
The supply of high-level qualifications will fall short of labour market demand by 2025
70 000
60 000
50 000
Projected labour market demand
(2025)
40 000
Projected student demand
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
Certificate I/II Certificate III/IV Diploma/Advanced
Diploma
Source: Access Economics, Economic modelling of skills demand – NSW State results (2009).
Undergraduate Postgraduate
9

Attainment levels will need to increase for all ages, especially for those without a non-school qualification
20%
10%
0%
50%
40%
30%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
9%
4%
9%
3%
75%
15-24
Level of highest qualification by age, NSW, 2010
38%
11%
18%
3%
31%
30%
12%
19%
4%
35%
24%
11%
18%
6%
42%
25-34 35-44 45-64
25%
10%
16%
4%
Bachelor and above
Diploma and Advanced
Diploma
Certificate III-IV
Certificate I-II
45%
No non-school qualification
15-64
Source: ABS (2010) Education and Work, Australia, 6227.0 unpublished data
10

We have a quality system and a large market
Board of Vocational
Education and
Training
Policy, planning, funding
TAFE NSW
10 Institutes
Private Providers
2,000 in NSW
NSW
Training
System
Apprenticeships and
Traineeships
165,000 in NSW
Contestable Training
Market
750 providers
11

%
40
35
30
25
20
5
0
15
10
36,8
ACT
Training completion rates must increase for all states and territories
Training completion rates, by State
34,3
28,9
25,5
24,5 23,9
19,4
NSW SA WA Qld Vic Tas
16,1
NT
Source: NCVER 2011, The likelihood of completing a VET qualification, 2005-07
12

The investment in training must be aligned to the skill needs of the economy
Other industries
High GSP contribution & high employment industries
Share of funded training compared to economic contribution, NSW 2010
Funded training 67%
Employment 59%
GSP 58% 32%
Funded training 33%
Employment 41%
GSP 42%
68%
High GSP contribution and high and employment industries:
• Healthcare & social assistance
• Construction
• Finance & Insurance
• Manufacturing
• Professional, scientific & technical
70% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Figures refer to publicly funded students commencing an AQF qualification in 2010. Industries are derived from NCVER training packages.
Source: NCVER National VET Provider Collection. Students 2010.
13

• Increase participation in vocational education and training
• Target vocational education and training to business, industry and regional needs
• Role and function of TAFE NSW as the public provider
• Greater choice for individuals and employers
• Improve vocational education and training completion rates
14

• A commitment to provide government subsidised training to all eligible persons
• Student choice of qualification and provider
15