11th Annual Library Leadership Institute
Repositioning Libraries and Librarians for the Next Generation
Taiwan, 10-14 May 2013
Strategic Planning: Skills Development using a Scenario
Planning Process
利用情境規劃過程發展技能
Howard Amos
University Librarian
University of Otago
Session outline
 10:50 – 11:20 Presentation
 11:20 – 11:40 Group Activity
 11:40 – 11:50 Refresher
 11:50 – 12:20 Group Activity
 12:20 – 12:30 Summary
Disclaimer
Deconstruction
What do we mean by Planning
What is Strategic Planning
What is Scenario Planning
How does skills development come into the
picture
Why should we care
Why should we care
“What can we do as academic librarians to better prepare ourselves for what is certainly
an uncertain future? We just have to think more entrepreneurially and look for these
opportunities.” – Steve Bell Vice President/President Elect Association of College and Research Libraries March 2012
“Libraries cannot remain relevant institutions by being meaningless middlemen who
serve no purpose.“ - Eric Van de Velde blogger scitechsociety.blogspot.com/
“unless we give our funding bodies better and more compelling reasons to support
libraries, they will be forced by economic reality to stop doing so.” – Rick Anderson Scholarly
Kitchen blogger and Interim Dean of the J. Willard Marriott Library at the University of Utah.
“Academic libraries must develop the staff needed to meet new challenges through
creative approaches to hiring new personnel and deploying/retraining existing staff.”
A review of the trends and issues affecting academic libraries in higher education
ACRL Research Planning and Review Committee
-
What is Planning
“If you don't know where you are going,
you'll end up someplace else.”
― Yogi Berra
“Failing to plan is planning to fail”
― Alan Lakein
What is Planning
Part of what management is:
organising
resourcing [staffing]
leading [control]
directing
planning
Koontz, Harold and O'Donnell, Cyril (1959). Principles of management; an analysis of managerial functions (2nd ed.) New York,NY:McGraw-Hill.
Planning
In organizations, planning is a management process, concerned with
defining goals for company's future direction and determining on the
missions and resources to achieve those target.
Knowledge is the essential ingredient
Knowledge
Things we know we know
Things we know we don’t know
Things we don’t know we don’t know
What is Strategic Planning
Identify and confirm intended/desired outcomes
Clearly define objectives
Means we can set priorities
Establish common goals
Demonstrate alignment
What is Strategic Planning
Assessment of the environment
Formulate a high level plan
Operational planning
- objectives and action items
Evaluations, review & refinement
So I’ve got a Strategic Plan
We know where we are going
What if the goal post move
How do we prepare for the unexpected
How do we anticipate change
Move from reactive to proactive
Flexible decision-making tool
Relevant to who and what we are
“Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If
you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”
-
Lewis Carroll, Alice Through the Looking Glass
“The future you have, tomorrow, won't be the same future you had, yesterday.”
- Chuck Palahniuk, Rant
What is Scenario Planning
Genesis from military strategic studies
Herman Kahn – “think the unthinkable”
Business tool in the 1960’s & 1970’s
Pierre Wack
– long range planning at Royal Dutch Shell
What is Scenario Planning
Not about predicting the future
Provides a framework to:

focus on different possibilities

include uncertainties in planning
what we don’t know that we don’t know
Explore multiple plausible futures
Develop feasible strategic plans
How does it work
Use known drivers (trends) to develop different
possible future states
Create a series of different futures
Refine to 3- 5 scenarios and expand
Knowledge exchange & responsiveness
Develop strategies and options
How To…: ‘A Step-by-Step Guide’
 Scoping
 Trend Analysis
PESTLE
 Create Scenarios
 Generate Options
 Review Options
 Action Plan
http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning
Scenario Planning in action
rossdawsonblog.com/weblog/archives/2012/03/scenario-planning-in-action-what-why-success-factors-and-process.html
A lot of work – what are the benefits
 Enhance the planning and forecasting process
 Ties diverse information and future
environments
 Avoids single view and blind spots
 Forces explicit assumptions
 Highlights areas for further examination
 Draws staff and management into the process
 Develops the Library’s corporate culture
Skills Development
Builds familiarity in handling uncertainty
Embrace diversity - find coherence
Team dynamics
Builds wider planning capabilities
Putting it into play – a case study
Otago Library Operational Managers
 introduction to scenario planning
 workshop issues and options
 timeline
Random teams from across the Library
Scenarios refined and developed by EMG
Putting it into play – high level scenarios
Budget cuts
Changing social imperatives
Development of digital humanities services
Development of distance courses
Disaster preparedness
Economic pressure from Government
Emphasis placed on post-graduates
Increasing professional services
Technology developments
Dominance of the large publishers
Putting it into play – high level scenarios
Budget cuts
Changing social imperatives
Development of digital humanities services
Development of distance courses
Disaster preparedness
Economic pressure from Government
Emphasis placed on post-graduates
Increasing professional services
Technology developments
Dominance of the large publishers
Responding to the scenarios
- the ground rules
• Your number is your scenario and group to work with.
• Groups are expected to meet at least twice before the next
OMG meeting in November.
• Meeting in late November (date tbc) – each group present
for 20 min + Q&A with a 30 min conclusion with discussion
on common themes and practical implications that can be
drawn from the exercise.
EMG members will not actively participate. However you can
approach any EMG member for their perspective/input based
on their experience as part of the Executive.
Putting it into play – the scenarios
Scenario 1 – Changing Landscape
The University has issued a directive to focus on Teaching & Learning
due to declining Research outputs. How we teach and what we teach
becomes more influenced by government policy, seeking different
outcomes at a national level. For example:
• Iwi progressing through the Treaty of Waitangi settlement
processes are gaining resources to participate more fully in the
cultural and educational development of their people.
• Government places emphasis on Science, Technology and
Engineering training.
• Government policy is to fund programmes that produce
“employment ready” graduates.
The Library is faced with changing cohorts and the need for new and
different services. How does the Library respond and engage?
Scenario 2 – Delivering on Promises
The University sees the implementation of a new library system
as an opportunity to develop modern “connect anywhere”
services in support of Learning & Teaching and Research.
The University has approved funding for the implementation of
a new library system on the basis that the Library has
guaranteed improvements in professional support with a focus
on moving away from place-based/just in case services.
What does the Library need to do to deliver on these promises
and how would we transition and build Library services that are
embedded in Academic Divisions?
Scenario 3 – Slash & Burn
University of Otago comes 4th in the current PBRF round and
the institution receives a drastic cut in funding. Canterbury’s
new marketing drive is very successful and the reduction in
research income arrives at the same time as a significant fall in
enrolments.
The Library is required to provide minimal front of house
services with all other activities self-mediated or outsourced.
Some funding is transferred to Academic Divisions for them to
allocate for Research and Learning & Teaching support.
What does the new Library service model look like?
Scenario 4 – Under Cut
In a bid to outpace Auckland as New Zealand’s major
research university, Otago decides on a dramatic shift
from under graduate to post graduate focus.
As well as moving to a version of the Melbourne
model, to maintain its “brand”, the university moves
to significantly increase distance education courses
across all Academic Divisions.
How does the Library respond?
Scenario 5 – Dog Eat Dog
The Government decides through a combination of
amalgamation and disestablishment to recreate a
single University of New Zealand. The Universities of
Auckland and Otago are given two years to
demonstrate which should be the Research arm of the
University.
How does the Library respond?
Putting it into play – the scenarios
Teams were asked active questions
Some of the Responses
Scenario 1: Changing
Landscape
Helen Brett, Richard German, Natalie Poland & Melanie Remy
University of Otago Library
23 November 2012
The New University Landscape
UO
Biomedical
& Life
Sciences
Joint 3-year degrees
Industry partnerships
Blended student learning experience
Applied science focus (integrates Commerce
subjects)
Required science writing and communication
paper (integrates Humanities subjects)
50% of academic staff are professional practice
teaching fellows
Academic staff are rewarded based on benefit to
industry and practical outputs (includes
publications and teaching materials)
UC
Engineering
& Physical
Sciences
The New Library Landscape:
Information, Data, and Learning Services
(IDLS)
New integrated support services unit
• Library + ITS + HEDC + Research & Enterprise Office
• Two branches: Learning Systems and Research Systems
Learning Systems
• Development of personalised student learning portal (LFS)
• Partner with Departments on instructional design, information and
educational resources, including textbooks and lab e-notebooks
Research Systems
• Engaged in project and data management, repository stewardship
• Gather business intelligence, track outputs, sponsor publications,
manage IP and copyright, assist with grant proposals
Common themes and implications
The untethered library
Just in time
Teaching on line and global
24/7
Embedded librarians
Economies from scale
How did it unfold
Team compositions
Timing
Teams were presented scenarios
Scenario construction can be varied but still valid
Multi scenario planning not possible
Value in reinforcing “the future is now”
Yet to be embedded in quality assessment
To Recap: Scenarios
Centre on construction of useable stories
 each one a coherent whole
 provoke thinking not substitute
Need to be
 plausible based on assumptions
 relevant to issues and challenges
 specific decision-focused views
 produce new perspectives
Group activity
Two parts
Brainstorm and produce trends
Begin developing a scenario
Group activity
Brainstorm and produce trends
P – political
E – economic
S – social
T – technological
L – legal
E - environmental
Group activity
Brainstorm and produce trends
Feedback
Characteristics of scenarios
They come in sets
- can be powerful to examine contrasts
Show possible futures
Contextual, plausible
A logical path
Schnaars, S., & Ziamou, P. (2001). The essentials of scenario writing. Business Horizons, 44(4), 25-31.
Group activity
Begin developing a scenario
Factors could be
 Impact on the sector and your university
 Direct impact on your library
 What trends might lead to a positive
 What could be a negative version
Group activity - an example
Trend:
Economic pressure combines with government
demands for more highly skilled graduates
Impact on the sector and your university:
Growth of post-grad programmes
Direct impact on your library:
Need to grow skills to support research
What trends might lead to a positive:
Increase funding to library programmes
Summing Up
Create a series of different futures
Use known drivers (trends) to develop different
possible future states
Refine to 3- 5 scenarios and expand
Knowledge exchange & responsiveness
Embed in strategic plan action points
The JISC…: ‘A Step-by-Step Guide’
 Scoping
 Trend Analysis
PESTLE
 Create Scenarios
 Generate Options
 Review Options
 Action Plan
http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning
Resources
Association of Research Libraries and Stratus, Inc.,
The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User’s Guide for Research Libraries (Washington, DC: ARL, 2010),
http://www.arl.org/bm~doc/arl-2030-scenariosusers-guide.pdf.
Futures, The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. Elsevier (Science Direct)
ISSN: 0016-3287& 1873-6378
Libraries of the Future
http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/
JISC Infonet scenario planning info kit
http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning/
Technological forecasting and social change. Elsevier (Science Direct)
ISSN 0040-1625 & 1873-5509
Total Quality Management and Business Excellence. Routledge (Routledge Open Select)
ISSN 0954-4127
Acknowledgements
Libraries of the Future http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/
Anderson Rick (2011), “The Crisis in Research Librarianship,” Journal of Academic Librarianship 37, no. 4
http://www.balancedscorecard.org/BSCResources/StrategicPlanningBasics/tabid/459/Default.aspx
Dalziel, Murray, and Stephen C. Schoonover (1988). Changing Ways: A Practical Tool for Implementing Change Within
Organizations. New York. NY: Amacom/American Management Association.
http://dissertationhelponline.blogspot.co.nz/2012/01/research-strategy.html
http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning/
Kahn, Herman and Wiener, Anthony J (1967). The Year 2000 A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. , New
York. NY: The Macmillan Company.
Koontz, Harold and O'Donnell, Cyril (1959). Principles of management; an analysis of managerial functions (2nd ed.). New
York,NY:McGraw-Hill.
Meister, Jeanne. 5 New Skills needed for leadership in 2020. http://www.humanresourcesiq.com/business-strategies/articles/5-newskills-needed-for-leadership-in-2020/
Schoemaker, Paul J. H. “Scenario Planning: A tool for Strategic Thinking.” Sloan Management Review, Winter 1995; 36 no. 2
Schnaars, S., & Ziamou, P. (2001). The essentials of scenario writing. Business Horizons, 44(4), 25-31.
Images
http://www.flickr.com/photos/quasimondo/376852204/sizes/z/in/photostream/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/silvery/2290201108/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/desmondwilder/5391002979/sizes/z/in/photostream/
http://policy.nrcs.usda.gov/viewerFS.aspx?id=3005 Subpart A - Framework for Planning
http://blog.kana.com/service-experience-management/knowledge-management-the-next-five-years
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jnicho02/2637002496/
http://dissertationhelponline.blogspot.co.nz/2012/01/research-strategy.html
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xGZ_ig3bAbU/UP3QYtUz7sI/AAAAAAAABM4/EU0Sya9Sx3k/s1600/01a1-strategic-planning.jpg
http://3dinspired.com/publications/scenario-planning-in-uncertain-times/
http://sites.psu.edu/selvidesign/files/2011/12/scenario-planning-big.jpg
Images
http://www.edmc.am/wp-content/uploads/improving-workforce-development-eto-software3.jpg
http://www.illumine.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/108784913.jpg
http://www.flickr.com/photos/magarell/208683442/
http://thinkingfutures.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/future-ahead.jpg
http://occupiedwithlife.blogs.rice.edu/files/2013/01/Screen-Shot-2013-01-17-at-11.02.17-AM.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h-byX9hMwrw/URrdua_WTCI/AAAAAAAAADk/uKKtLYIiyOs/s1600/playwright.jpg
https://ctools.umich.edu/osp-presentation-tool/viewPresentation.osp?id=0A1E1FE677059A48CF284489D696FB38
http://static.nz.groupon-content.net/dealarc/img/slider/663/books-1.jpg
http://www.otago.ac.nz/prodcons/groups/public/@otagomarketingservices/documents/webcontent/otago038750.jpg
http://images.iop.org/objects/phw/news/16/8/6/causality.jpg