12th Annual Library Leadership Institute
Library Leadership in the Asia Pacific Century
Shanghai, 16-20 May 2014
Strategic Planning: Skills Development using a Scenario
Planning Process
策略規劃：透過情境規劃過程發展技能
Howard Amos
University Librarian
University of Otago
Scenario Planning
Aim: build understanding of planning strategies
Outcome: understand role scenario planning can play
Approach: sharing knowledge & development of a
scenario planning approach
Session outline
 14:00 – 14:45 Presentation
 14:45 – 15:10 Group Activity
 15:10 – 15:20 Feedback
 15:20 – 15:30 Summary
Disclaimer
Deconstruction
What do we mean by Planning
What is Strategic Planning
What is Scenario Planning
How does skills development come into the
picture
Why should we care
Why should we care
“What can we do as academic librarians to better prepare ourselves for what is certainly
an uncertain future? We just have to think more entrepreneurially and look for these
opportunities.” – Steve Bell Vice President/President Elect Association of College and Research Libraries March 2012
“Libraries cannot remain relevant institutions by being meaningless middlemen who
serve no purpose.“ - Eric Van de Velde blogger scitechsociety.blogspot.com/
“unless we give our funding bodies better and more compelling reasons to support
libraries, they will be forced by economic reality to stop doing so.” – Rick Anderson Scholarly
Kitchen blogger and Interim Dean of the J. Willard Marriott Library at the University of Utah.
“Academic libraries must develop the staff needed to meet new challenges through
creative approaches to hiring new personnel and deploying/retraining existing staff.”
A review of the trends and issues affecting academic libraries in higher education
ACRL Research Planning and Review Committee
-
What is Planning
If you don't know where you are going,
you'll end up someplace else.”
― Yogi Berra
“Failing to plan is planning to fail”
― Alan Lakein
What is Planning
Part of what management is:
organising
resourcing [staffing]
leading [control]
directing
planning
Koontz, Harold and O'Donnell, Cyril (1959)..
Planning
In organizations, planning is a management process, concerned with
defining goals for company's future direction and determining on the
missions and resources to achieve those targets.
Knowledge is the essential ingredient
Knowledge
Things we know we know
Things we know we don’t know
Things we don’t know we don’t know
What is Strategic Planning
Identify and confirm intended/desired outcomes
Clearly define objectives
Means we can set priorities
Establish common goals
Demonstrate alignment
What is Strategic Planning
Assessment of the environment
Formulate a high level plan
Operational planning
- objectives & action items
Evaluations, review & refinement
Strategic Planning
Environmental scan
trend spotting
internal & external
Where is the library?
Demonstrate effectiveness
So I’ve got a Strategic Plan
We know where we are going
What if the goal post move
How do we prepare for the unexpected
How do we anticipate change
Move from reactive to proactive
Flexible decision-making tool
Relevant to who and what we are
“Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If
you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”
-
Lewis Carroll, Alice Through the Looking Glass
“The future you have, tomorrow, won't be the same future you had, yesterday.”
- Chuck Palahniuk, Rant
What is Scenario Planning
Genesis from military strategic studies
Herman Kahn – “think the unthinkable”
Business tool in the 1960’s & 1970’s
Pierre Wack
– long range planning at Royal Dutch Shell
What is Scenario Planning
Not about predicting the future
Provides a framework to:

focus on different possibilities

include uncertainties in planning
what we don’t know that we don’t know
Explore multiple plausible futures
Develop feasible strategic plans
How does it work
Use known trends to develop different possible
future states
Create a series of different futures
Refine to 3 - 5 scenarios & expand
Knowledge exchange & responsiveness
Develop strategies & options
How To…: ‘A Step-by-Step Guide’
 Scoping
 Trend Analysis
PESTLE
 Create Scenarios
 Generate Options
 Review Options
 Action Plan
http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning
Scenario Planning in action
rossdawsonblog.com/weblog/archives/2012/03/scenario-planning-in-action-what-why-success-factors-and-process.html
Characteristics of scenarios
They come in sets
- can be powerful to examine contrasts
Show possible futures
Contextual, plausible
A logical path
Schnaars, S., & Ziamou, P. (2001)
Generating Scenarios
How does it flow
Context
• imperatives
• scans
Consequence
• trends
• drivers
Construction
• assumptions
• decisions
Scenarios
Actions
• plans
• projects
Imperatives & Trends
Imperatives/Trends
Changes in how teachers teach and
students learn
Move from print dominated resources
to online, anytime from anywhere
Economic accountability
New tools and technologies
Implications
New support services, re-purposed/new
spaces
Changes to back office functions,
consolidate services, the untethered
library
Do more with less, demonstrate
effectiveness and value for investment
New skills sets for staff, incorporate selfmediation (PDA, print on demand etc.)
Growth in inter-discipline research and New skills sets for staff, embedded in
international collaboration
the research project
Generating Scenarios - an example
A Trend leads to an imperative:
Economic pressure combines with government
demands for more highly skilled graduates
Impact:
The university will need growth of post-grad
programmes
Library:
We will………..
Otago case study
Context
• imperatives
• scans
Consequence
• trends
• drivers
Construction
• assumptions
• decisions
Scenarios
Actions
• plans
• projects
Otago case study
Otago Library Operational Managers
 introduction to scenario planning
 workshop issues and options
 timeline
Random teams from across the Library
Scenarios refined and developed by SMT
How did it unfold
Team compositions
Timing
Teams were presented scenarios
Scenario construction can be varied but still valid
Multi scenario planning not possible
Value in reinforcing “the future is now”
Yet to be embedded in quality assessment
Putting it into play – high level trends
Budget cuts
Changing social imperatives
Development of digital humanities services
Development of distance courses
Disaster preparedness
Economic pressure from Government
Emphasis placed on post-graduates
Increasing professional services
Technology developments
Dominance of the large publishers
Putting it into play – high level trends
Budget cuts
Changing social imperatives
Development of digital humanities services
Development of distance courses
Disaster preparedness
Economic pressure from Government
Emphasis placed on post-graduates
Increasing professional services
Technology developments
Dominance of the large publishers
Common themes and implications
The untethered library
Just in time
Teaching online & global
24/7
Embedded librarians
Economies from scale
To Recap: Scenarios
Centre on construction of useable stories
 each one a coherent whole
 provoke thinking not substitute
Need to be
 plausible based on assumptions
 relevant to issues and challenges
 specific decision-focused views
 produce new perspectives
Group activity: introduction
context
• imperatives
• scans
consequence
• trends
• drivers
construction
• assumptions
• decisions
scenario
actions
• plans
• projects
consequence
Group activity
Context
Plan
construct
Trends this development responds to are:
scenario
Group activity
Imperatives/Trends
Changes in how teachers teach and
students learn
Move from print dominated resources
to online, anytime from anywhere
Economic accountability
New tools and technologies
Implications
New support services, re-purposed/new
spaces
Changes to back office functions,
consolidate services, the untethered
library
Do more with less, demonstrate
effectiveness and value for investment
New skills sets for staff, incorporate selfmediation (PDA, print on demand etc.)
Growth in inter-discipline research and New skills sets for staff, embedded in
international collaboration
the research project
Group activity
Part Two
Consider options for three areas to be developed
Group activity
Factors could be
 Impact on the sector and your university
 Direct impact on your library
 What trends might lead to a positive
 What could be a negative version
Summing Up
Create a series of different futures
Use known drivers (trends)
Develop different future states
Refine to 3 - 5 scenarios
Knowledge exchange & responsiveness
Embed in strategic plan action points
The JISC…: ‘Step-by-Step Guide’
 Scoping
 Trend Analysis
PESTLE
 Create Scenarios
 Generate Options
 Review Options
 Action Plan
http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning
A lot of work – what are the benefits
 Enhance the planning and forecasting process
 Ties diverse information and future
environments
 Avoids single view and blind spots
 Forces explicit assumptions
 Highlights areas for further examination
 Draws staff and management into the process
 Develops the Library’s corporate culture
Skills Development
Builds familiarity in handling uncertainty
Embrace diversity - find coherence
Team dynamics
Builds wider planning capabilities
Resources
Association of Research Libraries and Stratus, Inc.,
The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User’s Guide for Research Libraries (Washington, DC: ARL, 2010),
http://www.arl.org/bm~doc/arl-2030-scenariosusers-guide.pdf.
Futures, The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. Elsevier (Science Direct)
ISSN: 0016-3287& 1873-6378
Libraries of the Future
http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/
JISC Infonet scenario planning info kit
http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning/
Technological forecasting and social change. Elsevier (Science Direct)
ISSN 0040-1625 & 1873-5509
Total Quality Management and Business Excellence. Routledge (Routledge Open Select)
ISSN 0954-4127
Acknowledgements
Libraries of the Future http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/
Anderson Rick (2011), “The Crisis in Research Librarianship,” Journal of Academic Librarianship 37, no. 4
http://www.balancedscorecard.org/BSCResources/StrategicPlanningBasics/tabid/459/Default.aspx
Dalziel, Murray, and Schoonover, Stephen C. (1988). Changing Ways: A Practical Tool for Implementing Change Within
Organizations. New York. NY: Amacom/American Management Association.
http://dissertationhelponline.blogspot.co.nz/2012/01/research-strategy.html
http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning/
Kahn, Herman and Wiener, Anthony J (1967). The Year 2000 A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. , New
York. NY: The Macmillan Company.
Koontz, Harold and O'Donnell, Cyril (1959). Principles of management; an analysis of managerial functions (2nd ed.). New
York,NY:McGraw-Hill.
Meister, Jeanne. 5 New Skills needed for leadership in 2020. http://www.humanresourcesiq.com/business-strategies/articles/5-newskills-needed-for-leadership-in-2020/
Schoemaker, Paul J. H. “Scenario Planning: A tool for Strategic Thinking.” Sloan Management Review, Winter 1995; 36 no. 2
Schnaars, S., & Ziamou, P. (2001). The essentials of scenario writing. Business Horizons, 44(4), 25-31.
Images
http://www.flickr.com/photos/quasimondo/376852204/sizes/z/in/photostream/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/silvery/2290201108/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/desmondwilder/5391002979/sizes/z/in/photostream/
http://policy.nrcs.usda.gov/viewerFS.aspx?id=3005 Subpart A - Framework for Planning
http://blog.kana.com/service-experience-management/knowledge-management-the-next-five-years
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jnicho02/2637002496/
http://dissertationhelponline.blogspot.co.nz/2012/01/research-strategy.html
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http://3dinspired.com/publications/scenario-planning-in-uncertain-times/
http://sites.psu.edu/selvidesign/files/2011/12/scenario-planning-big.jpg
Images
http://www.edmc.am/wp-content/uploads/improving-workforce-development-eto-software3.jpg
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/magarell/208683442/
http://thinkingfutures.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/future-ahead.jpg
http://occupiedwithlife.blogs.rice.edu/files/2013/01/Screen-Shot-2013-01-17-at-11.02.17-AM.png
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