Public Opinion and Political
Action
Chapter 6
Introduction
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Some Basics:
Demography
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The science of population
changes.
Gender
Occupation
Race
Religion
SES - social class
America’s Demographics: Who are we and how
do we know?

Census
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A valuable tool for understanding population changesrequired every 10 years.
2010 Census (1:35):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf1f2MhKLmg
Immigrant Society and the Melting Pot ideal
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First wave -- NW Europeans
2nd wave - Eastern Europeans
3rd Wave - Hispanics + Asians
Minority/majority is influencing the great melting pot.
 By 2050 - Whites will be only 52% of society
 At one time Blacks were the largest “reluctant”
minority. Now w/ affirmative action, they are
moving up.
3
The American People
Figure 6.1
The American People
Political Culture: An overall set of values widely shared
within a society.
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Simpson/Mazzoli Act
requires employers to
document the citizenship
of employees or face
fines.
Asian influx has brought
an educated elite into
America. . .the typical
downtrodden immigrant
now is highly educated
Even with gambling,
Native Americans
maintain a dismal
ranking in acquiring the
American dream.
Which party will benefit from the
minority/majority?
The American People: The Regional
Shift
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Demographics has also
changed with the MOBILE
society
Frost Belt to Sun Belt: SW,
SE and Texas dramatic
population increases (20%
growth rates) while North
has 5% growth
Reapportionment
 The process of
reallocating seats in the
House of
Representatives (435)
every 10 years on the
basis of the results of the
census.
 Redistricting is done by
state legislatures.
The Graying of
America

GRAY POWER
 Baby boomers graying rapidly
(fastest growing group) +
 They wish to collect their $5
trillion in Social Security
benefits! Potential drain by
2020
 Their SIGS possess clout – i.e.
AARP
 One advantage that no other
group has- we are all going to
get older
How Americans Learn About
Politics: Political Socialization

Political Socialization:
the process through which an
individual acquires his or her
political orientation

The Process of Political
Socialization
How it is developed?
Who establishes our political
values?
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HOW is political socialization
developed?
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Weight of tradition +
customs
Impact of events
Changes in the way of
political elites
Families
School
Relationships (as the
paradigms shift)
9
WHO establishes our political value
system. . .Who sets the agenda?
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Single Interest Groups
(SIGS)
Political institutions
Media “The New Parent”
Family
Social Economic
Stratification (SES) as
one grows older.
10
Family.

Strongest.
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Time & emotional commitment

Political leanings of children
often mirror their parent’s
leanings

Fairly equal influence of
mother and father.
When parents differ, child
tends to associate w/beliefs of
parent with whom he/she
more closely identifies.

Family Influence
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/04/110407121337.htm
Mass Media
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TV displaces parents
as chief source of info.
Generation gap in TV
news viewing and
newspaper reading
Schools
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Impart basic values
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civic duty, patriotism.
Used by government to socialize the young into the
culture and government
High school government classes apparently do not
change political orientation of students.
College students tend to be more liberal than
general population.
College students at most prestigious schools tend to
be the most liberal.
College students in social sciences more liberal
than those in natural/physical sciences.
Other Sources of Influence
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Religion
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Race
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Protestant, Catholic,
Jewish
White, Black, Hispanic
(Mexican, Puerto Rican,
Cuban)
Income
Gender
The Gender Gap

Women vote for the Democratic
candidates at higher rates than
Republican candidates.
Measuring Public Opinion and
Political Information

5 ways to measure public opinion
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Elections (useful but not 100% accurate)
Interest Groups (Useful to use)
Media (Only the vocal are heard)
Straw Poll (Very unreliable)
Scientific Polling (Most reliable if 5 steps are
followed- developed by Gallop)

Nate Silver’s method- a poll of polls- is the MOST
accurate scientific polling method
Measuring Public Opinion and
Political Information

5 Steps in Scientific Polling
Define the universe
1.

Construct the Sample (See next slide)
Develop valid and unbiased questions
2.
3.
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Must be very specific and non-leading
Control how the poll is conducted
4.
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5.
Entire population the poll will measure (women, men, children,
whites, blacks, etc.)
Phone (usually best way to get honest answers), e-mail, face-toface (careful that the interviewer doesn’t influence the answers
Analyze and report the findings (See the two slides after
the next on sampling)
Measuring Public
Opinion and Political
How Sample Sizes Can Be
Information
Constructed

-Random Sampling: The key
technique employed by
sophisticated survey
researchers; operates on the
principle that everyone should
have an equal probability of
being selected for the sample
-Representative Sample: Draws
from all groups
-Sample size 1500
-Sampling Error: The level of
confidence in the findings of a
public opinion poll, +/-3% (will be
accurate 95% of the time if the 5
steps are followed)
Measuring Public Opinion
and Political Information

Analyzing the Results: How
Polls Influence Government
(The Good Part)
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Help candidates and politicians
figure out public preferences.
Inform the public about issues.
Exit Polls- used by the media to
predict election day winners so we
don’t have to wait!
Polls reflect the policy agenda—
problems the people inside and
outside of government believe must
be addressed.

Politicians use polls to help get
themselves reelected and do what their
constituents want
Measuring Public Opinion and
Political Information

Analyzing the Results: How Polls Don’t Influence
Government (The Bad Part)
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Politicians don’t want to be seen as indecisive (only
votes for what the polls say, not for what he/she knows
or believes in)
If the opinion poll goes against what the party wants,
politicians won’t vote for what the public wants for fear
of losing support of party leadership
Or politicians won’t vote for what the public wants to
GAIN support of party leadership (he/she did want the
leadership wanted, not public)
Measuring Public Opinion
and Political Information
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Analyzing the Results: What Polls
Reveal About Americans’ Political
Information (The Bad Part)
 Americans don’t know much
about politics.
 Americans may know their
basic beliefs, but not how that
affects policies of the
government.
The Decline of Trust in
Government
 Now only about 25% of the
public trust the government
most of the time or always.
What Americans Value:
Political Ideologies

Political Ideology:

A coherent set of beliefs
about politics, public
policy, and public
purpose.
Demographics and Ideology
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The Republican Party Coalition
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Rural voters/farmers
White males
Business owners
Conservative Christians
College Educated
Demographics and Ideology
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Democratic Coalition
Urban dwellers
Union members
Hispanics and African Americans
High School Diploma
Advanced Degree
Demographics and Voter
Turnout
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The following increase the
chance that someone will vote:
 Higher income
 Older
 Well educated
 White (sort of)
 Northerner
 Union member
 Government employee
Liberalism
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Classical liberalism of 18th century -limited role of government. Govt. seen as
chief threat to liberty. “That govt. is best
which governs least.”
Modern liberalism of 20th century -expanded role of government.
Corporations seen as chief threat --->
need for a strong central govt. to “smooth
out the rough edges of capitalism.”
Strong influence of liberalism, 1930's 1970's.
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Discrediting of liberalism in 1980's and
1990's: a feeling that liberalism had
'gone too far.' Need to get back to more
individualism and less reliance on big
govt.
“Neoliberals.”
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Less likely to rely upon govt as solution to
problems.
Govt. certainly has some role to play, but
not as big a role as desired by New Deal
liberals.
Rise of Democratic Leadership Council,
w/members like Bill Clinton and Paul
Tsongas.
Conservatism
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Essentially classical liberalism.
Resurgence in late 70's and 80's:
Reagan/Bush, Repub. control of Senate
1980-86.
Emphasis today on the private sector to
solve problems.
"Neoconservatives” and the New Right:
impact upon social, economic, and foreign
policy.
What Americans Value: Political
Ideologies. A few examples:
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Liberals:
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More domestic
spending
Pro-choice
Favor affirmative
action
Favor progressive
taxation
Pro gay marriage
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Conservatives:
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More military
spending
Pro-life
Oppose affirmative
action
Keep taxes low
Support traditional
marriage
The Other Ideologues
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Environmentalism – Grassroots democracy, social
justice, non-violence. In a post-materialistic world,
many seek to replenish the environment before it
wears out. The post-materialistic world. . .
Socialism – Public ownership of means of
production and exchange. A left wing perspective.
Market economy w/ gov’t involvement. . .Most
European democracies use this approach. High
taxes but “Nat’l” benefits.
Libertarianism – Individual liberty + sharply limited
gov’t; isolationist; repeal all morality laws. “Get
Gov’t out of your lives”. A Nevada favorite
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How Americans Participate in
Politics

Political Participation:
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All the activities used by
citizens to influence the
selection of political leaders
or the policies they pursue.
Conventional Participation
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Voting in elections
Working in campaigns /
running for office
Contacting elected officials
How Americans
Participate in Politics
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Protest as Participation
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Protest: A form of political
participation designed to
achieve policy changes
through dramatic and
unconventional tactics.
Civil disobedience: A form of
political participation that
reflects a conscious decision
to break a law believed to be
immoral and to suffer the
consequences.
How Americans Participate in
Politics

Class, Inequality, and Participation
Figure 6.5