
Public Opinion
◦ The distribution of the population’s beliefs about
politics and policy issues.
◦ Difficult to assess.
President Obama’s
Current Approval Rating:
41.6%

The Role of Polls in American Democracy
◦ Polls may distort election process
 bandwagon effect : supporting a candidate simply
because they see others doing so.
◦ Exit Polls: used by the media to predict election day
winners; most widely criticized.
 May discourage people from voting

How Polls Are Conducted
◦ Sample: a small proportion of people who are chosen in a
survey to be representative of the whole; 1,000-1,500 can
accurately represent the “universe” of potential voters.
◦ Random Sampling: the key technique employed by
sophisticated survey researchers which operates on the
principle that everyone should have an equal probability of
being selected for the sample.
◦ Sampling Error: the level of confidence in the findings of a
public opinion poll (+/- 3%).

By altering the wording of a question, pollsters
can usually get the results they want.


Do you think 18-year-olds should be able to
drink alcohol?
"Given that at the age of 18 people are old
enough to fight and die for your country,
don't you think they should be able to drink
alcohol as well?“
Harris Poll:

Do you favor keeping a large number of US
troops in Iraq until there is a stable
government there or bringing most of our
troops home in the next year? OR…

Do you think the US should keep its military
forces in Iraq until civil order is restored
there, even if that means continued US
military casualties, or do you think the US
should withdraw its military forces from Iraq
in order to avoid further military casualties
even if it means civil order is not restored
there?

What Polls Reveal About Americans’
Political Information
◦ Americans don’t know much about politics.
◦ Americans may know their basic beliefs but not
how that affects policies of the government.

The Decline of Trust in Government
◦ Since 1964, trust in government has declined.
 Trust In Government Poll


How is Congress doing according to public
opinion polls?
Congressional Approval:
12.9% (RCP Average)
Public Policy Polling (2013)

“Nothing is more dangerous than to live in
the temperamental atmosphere of a Gallup
poll, always taking one’s pulse and taking
one’s temperature… There is only one duty,
only one safe course, and that is to try to be
right and not to fear to do or say what you
believe.” - Winston Churchill
What is political socialization? What major
sources of influence shape peoples’ political
views? Is this true for you?

Political Socialization:
◦ The process through which an individual
acquires a particular political orientation.
◦ Orientation grows firmer with age.
The Process of Political Socialization
◦ The Family: Political leanings of
children often mirror their
parents’ leanings – most
powerful socializing agent.
One can predict
how the majority of
young people will
vote by knowing
the leanings of
parents.

The Process of Political Socialization (cont.)
◦ The Mass Media
 Chief source of information as children age
 Considered by some to be the “new parent”
 Generation gap and viewing television news
◦ School
 Used by government to socialize young into political culture –
indoctrination or socialization?
 Better-educated citizens are more likely to vote and are more
knowledgeable about politics and policy (greater political efficacy)

Demography
◦ the science of human populations

Census
◦ a valuable tool for understanding population
changes
◦ The U.S. Constitution requires that the government
conduct an “actual enumeration” of the
population every 10 years.
◦ The most recent census was completed in 2010.

The Regional Shift
◦ Population shift from east to
west.
◦ Reapportionment: the
process of reallocating seats
in the House of
Representatives every 10
years on the basis of the
results of the national
census.
◦ Hence, demographic
changes are associated with
political changes.
Gain 4
Gain 2
Gain 1
Lose 1
Lose 2
Texas
Florida
Arizona
Georgia
Nevada
South Carolina
Utah
Washington
Illinois
New York
Iowa
Ohio
Louisiana
Massachusetts
Michigan
Missouri
New Jersey
Pennsylvania

The Graying of America
◦ Fastest growing age group is over 65
◦ Potential drain on Social Security
 Pay as you go system
 In 1942, 42 workers per retiree
 In 2040, 2 workers per retiree
Social Security is exceeded
only by national defense as
America’s most costly
public policy.
Medicare
 Unlike Social Security, Medicare payroll taxes and premiums
cover only 57% of current benefits. The remaining 43% is
financed from general revenues.

Because of rising health care costs, general revenues would
have to pay for 62% of Medicare costs by 2030.
Political Learning
Over a Lifetime
Aging increases
political participation
and strength of party
attachment.
Social Security tax rate 6.20%
Medicare tax rate
1.45%
Total payroll taxes
7.65%
If an employee earns $1,000, the payroll taxes are:
Social Security tax
$62.00
Medicare tax
$14.50
Total payroll taxes
$76.50
The employer sends the $76.50 to the federal government.

The Immigrant Society
◦ United States is a nation of immigrants. Today federal law
allows up to 800,000 new immigrants each year; in recent
years illegal immigrants have outnumbered legal
immigrants (10-12 million today).
◦ Waves of immigration:
1. Northwestern Europeans (prior to late 19th Century); Germans
2. Hispanics and Asians (late 20th century); Mexican immigration first
peaked in 1980s; about 14% of all legal immigrants.
Political Learning
Over a Lifetime
Aging increases
political participation
and strength of party
attachment.

Political Ideology:
◦ A coherent set of beliefs about politics, public policy, and public
purpose

Where do Americans stand?
◦ Predominance of conservative over liberal thinking.
◦ Gallup Poll (2013): 38% conservative, 23% liberal, 34% moderate.
◦ Under the age of 30 – about just as many liberals as conservatives.
◦ The relationship between family income and ideology is relatively
weak – not as good a predictor of political behavior as it once was.

A liberal was a person who favored personal and
economic freedom (freedom from controls of the
state).

Originally a person who opposed the excesses of the
French Revolution. Supported a restoration of the
power of the state, the church, and the aristocracy.

Since the New Deal, liberal has come to mean those
who support an active national government.
 Intervene in the Economy (stimulus)
 Create social welfare programs
 Help certain groups (organized labor) acquire greater
bargaining power.
 Promote equality (social justice).




Favor free markets rather than regulation.
State’s rights over national supremacy.
Greater reliance on individual responsibility and choice
in economic affairs.
Traditional Judeo-Christian values.
How do liberals and conservatives view the
issue of income inequality in society? How does
each propose to address it?

Women make up about 54% of the population.

Overall, they are typically less conservative than men.
 Ex. They support more spending on social services but oppose
higher levels of military spending.

More likely to support Democratic candidates.

This ideological difference is known as the gender gap.

Do People Think in Ideological
Terms?
◦ Ideologues: think in ideological
terms
◦ Group Benefits voters: view
politics through party or group
label
◦ Nature of the Times:
view of politics based on
whether times are good
or bad
◦ No issue content: vote
routinely for party or
personality
Voters' Thought
Processes
Ideologue
12%
No Issue
Content
22%
Nature of
the Times
24%
Group
Benefits
42%

Political Participation: all the activities used by citizens
to influence the selection of political leaders or the
policies they pursue.

Conventional Participation
◦ Voting in elections
◦ Working in campaigns or running for office
◦ Contacting elected officials (writing letters)

Protest as Participation
◦ Protest: a form of political participation designed
to achieve policy changes through dramatic and
unconventional tactics.
◦ Civil disobedience: a form of political participation
that reflects a conscious decision to break a law
believed to be immoral and to suffer the
consequences.
 Example: Civil Rights Movement
Class, Inequality, and Participation

Inequality in political participation is a problem in a
representative democracy.

Public policy debates and outcomes would probably be
substantially different if people of all age groups and
income groups participated equally.






The difficulty of registering or absentee voting
The number of offices to elect
Weekday, non-holiday voting
Weak political parties
2-party system (lack of 3rd party viability)
Electoral College