Minimum marriage age laws, child
marriage and cumulative fertility:
Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa
Authors: Belinda Maswikwa, MA
Linda Richter, PhD
Chris Desmond, PhD
Jay Kaufman, PhD
Arijit Nandi, PhD
Outline
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Background
Research aims
Research methods
Results
Discussion
Questions
Background
62.8 million 20-24year olds
married before 18
Child marriage
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Child marriage
Child marriage
Child marriage
Child marriage
Child marriage
Child marriage
early child bearing
higher maternal mortality
higher child mortality
higher HIV prevalence
lower birth weights
higher total fertility rates
Research aims
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Focus on three marriage laws
 General minimum marriage age (civil)
 Minimum marriage age with parental consent
 Age of sexual consent
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Association between all three minimum
marriage age laws set at 18 or higher and
child marriage (consistent 18 + laws)
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Association between child marriage and
fertility (total children born)
Contribution
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Gap in the literature
 South Asia focus – disproportionate burden in
Sub-Saharan Africa
 Few studies of effect of minimum marriage age
laws
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Significance
 Reproductive health, mortality and morbidity
concerns – child marriage and adolescent
childbearing
 UN MDG goals 4 and 5 (child mortality and
maternal health)
RESEARCH METHODS
Data sources
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Child marriage database
 World Policy Analysis Centre at UCLA
 Captures the legal minimum age of marriage
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Demographic and Health Surveys
 Funded by United States Agency for International
Development (USAID)
 Captures population and reproductive health
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Collaboration with Institute for Health and
Social Policy, McGill University, Montreal
Canada
Primary Research Question
3 consistent 18+ minimum
marriage age laws
Exposure:
 Marriage age law consistency
 0 if any marriage laws < 18
 1 if all three marriage laws > 18
Outcomes:
 Child marriage rates
Analysis
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Risk ratios
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Weighted and controlled for
clustering at country level
Occurrence of child
marriage
RESULTS
Sample
Country
Year
Minimum
marriage age
Parental
Consent
Age of Sexual
Consent
% married
before 18
Mean children
Countries with 3 consistent 18+ laws
Burundi
2010
18
18
18
34.0
1.9
Ethiopia
2011
18
18
18
65.7
2.1
Rwanda
2010
21
21
18
20.0
1.6
Uganda
2011
21
18
18
57.1
2.2
Mean
20.2
18.8
18
49.3
2.0
Countries with 3 inconsistent laws
Burkina Faso
2010
20
17
13
65.3
2.0
Cameroon
2011
n/a
15
n/a
63.0
2.0
Gabon
2012
21
15
18
45.3
1.7
Malawi
2010
18
15
14
61.6
2.0
Mozambique
2011
18
16
16
65.0
1.9
Senegal
2010
18
16
16
58.8
2.0
Tanzania
2010
15
15
18
54.3
2.0
Zimbabwe
2010
18
16
16
45.6
1.6
Control variables
 Wealth quintile
 Poorest, Poor, Middle, Richer, Richest
 Location
 Rural, Urban - dummy variable
 Education
 None (0 years)
 Primary school (1-6 years),
 Secondary school ( 7 – 12 years)
 Post secondary school (+13 years)
 Religion
 Muslim, Catholic, Other Christian,Traditional – dummy
variables
Results: Law consistency and child marriage
Child marriage
Consistent 18+ laws
Risk ratios (95% confidence intervals)
0.79
(0.55 to 1.12)
Richest quintile (ref)
Richer
1.12*** (1.04 to 1.21)
Middle
1.15*** (1.06 to 1.25)
Poorer
1.21*** (1.11 to 1.31)
Poorest
1.23**
School years
0.96*** (0.95 to 0.98)
(1.10 to 1.38)
Location (rural: urban) 1.10**
(1.01 to 1.20)
No religion (ref)
Muslim
0.97
(0.86 to 1.09)
Catholic
0.88*
(0.77 to 1.02)
Traditional
0.98
(0.85 to 1.13)
Other Christian
0.99
(0.90 to 1.09)
Secondary Research Question
3 consistent 18+
minimum marriage age
laws
Exposure:
 Child marriage
 0 if first age at marriage >= 18
 1 if first age at marriage < 18
Outcomes:
 Fertility
 Total children born
Adolescent Fertility
Analysis
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Poisson regression
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Weighted and controlled
for clustering at country
level
Controls
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Covariates:
 Wealth quintile
 Poorest, Poor, Middle, Richer, Richest
 Location
 Rural, Urban - dummy variable
 Education
 None (0 years)
 Primary school (1-6 years),
 Secondary school ( 7 – 12 years)
 Post secondary school (+13 years)
 Age
 Religion
 Muslim, Catholic, Protestant, Traditional – dummy variables
Results: child marriage and fertility
CEB
β coefficients (95% confidence intervals)
Child marriage
0.53***
Consistent 18+ laws
-0.04
(-0.22 to 0.14)
Richest quintile (ref)
Richer
0.07***
(0.02 to 0.13)
Middle
0.11***
(0.05 to 0.18)
Poorer
0.12***
(0.05 to 0.20)
Poorest
0.16***
(0.07 to 0.24)
School years
-0.02***
(-0.03 to 0.00)
Location
0.09***
(0.04 to 0.14)
Age
0.17***
(0.16 to 0.18)
No religion (ref)
Muslim
-0.05
(-0.13 to 0.04)
Catholic
-0.01
(-0.09 to 0.06)
Other Christian
-0.04
(-0.11 to 0.04)
Traditional
-0.01**
(-0.08 to 0.06)
(0.46 to 0.60)
Discussion
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No significant association between law
consistency and child marriage at country level
 Households in countries with consistent minimum
marriage age laws of 18 years or over for girls are
21% less likely to have women who marry as children
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Significant positive association between child
marriage and adolescent fertility
 Girls who marry before the age of 18 years have
more children than those who marry as adults.
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Study limitations
Further work
Questions/Comments
Thank you