Public School Enrollment in Wisconsin Past, Present, & Future Presentation to the Applied Demography Convention January 9, 2014 Outline Examine current public school enrollment trends in the State of Wisconsin. Explore the broader demographic trends which influence public school enrollment. Generate public school enrollment projections statewide and by grade grouping, locale, and race/ethnicity. Applied Population Laboratory Public School Enrollment History Wisconsin 1965/66 - 2012/13 1,100,000 1,050,000 999,921 1,000,000 Number of Students 950,000 Baby Boom 900,000 Boomlet 881,720 850,000 800,000 750,000 700,000 Baby Bust 767,542 Statewide enrollment declined by 0.1% in a five year period. 59% of districts declined. 90 districts (21%) declined by 10% or more. 40% of districts increased. 53 districts (12%) increased by 10% or more. K-12 and 4K-12 Public School Enrollment Wisconsin, 2005/06-2012/13 870,000 860,000 850,000 Students 840,000 830,000 820,000 810,000 800,000 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 4K-12 09-10 K-12 10-11 11-12 12-13 Non-Hispanic White Students, 2005/06-2012/13 79.0% 78.0% 77.0% 75.0% 74.0% 73.0% 72.0% 71.0% 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 Non-hispanic White Students by Race/Ethnicity, 2005/06-2012/13 12-13 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% Students Students 76.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 05-06 06-07 Asian 07-08 Black 08-09 Hispanic 09-10 10-11 American Indian 11-12 2 or More 12-13 School Districts by Locale 5% Number of Districts 34% 61% Urban Suburban Rural District Enrollment 27% 35% Urban Suburban Rural 38% Students by Location, 2005/06-2012/13 330,000 310,000 290,000 Students Place Change Urban -1.6% Suburban 9.9% Rural -5.7% 270,000 250,000 230,000 210,000 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 Urban 09-10 Suburban 10-11 Rural 11-12 12-13 2012-13 Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Urban ◦ Urban – Greatest diversity. African American and Hispanic students are 22%. Asian Black Hispanic American Indian White ◦ Suburban – Largest minority is Hispanic (5.8%). Other minority students range from 2.2 to 3.7%. ◦ Rural – Largest minority is Hispanic (6.1%). Second largest is Native American (2.5%). 2 or More Suburban Rural Births Age Structure Migration Wisconsin Births, 1990-2010 75,000 72,500 70,000 67,500 65,000 62,500 60,000 57,500 55,000 52,500 50,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Non-Hispanic White Births Total Births Age Structure by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 85+ 80-84 75-79 Male Female 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 Age 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 Prime childbearing years 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 under 5 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% Percent of Population Persons of Color 4% 6% Non-Hispanic White Persons 8% 10% 12% Net Migration Rates by Race/Ethnicity, 2000s Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic Total 70 60 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Age 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 -20 0-4 Net Migration Rate 50 Since the late 1990s births increased, but in 2007 total births began to decline. ◦ Births of non-Hispanic whites have been declining , while minority births leveled off and only just decreased in 2010. The state’s age structure and recession contributed to low births over the last few years. ◦ Women of prime child-bearing years delayed having children. Net in-migration of all ages except young adults in the 2000s. ◦ Out-migration of young adults (age 25-29) occurred during the 1990s and 2000s except in the Hispanic population. Cohort component (survival) method Grade progression ratios for Grades 1st to 12th ◦ Average ratio of previous year 1st graders to current year 2nd graders Birth to Kindergarten ◦ 5 Year Trend model, 3 Year Trend model, & Fertility Rate model Projections statewide and by grade grouping Projections by race/ethnicity Projections by urban/suburban/rural locale Grade Progression Ratios, by Model 1.100 Grade Progression Ratio 1.050 1.000 0.950 Models 5 Year Trend 3 Year Trend 0.900 Fertility Rate B:K K:1 1:2 2:3 3:4 4:5 5:6 6:7 7:8 8:9 9:10 10:11 11:12 0.861 0.854 0.861 1.000 1.000 1.001 0.998 0.998 0.999 1.003 1.004 1.004 1.005 1.005 1.006 1.002 1.001 1.002 1.008 1.008 1.010 1.009 1.009 1.011 1.005 1.007 1.005 1.113 1.109 1.116 0.953 0.957 0.950 1.010 1.010 1.008 0.989 0.990 0.987 B:K K:1 1:2 2:3 3:4 4:5 5:6 6:7 7:8 8:9 9:10 10:11 11:12 0.850 5 Year Trend 3 Year Trend Fertility Rate Actual and Projected Births, 1993-2017 74,000 Projected 72,000 70,000 68,000 66,000 64,000 62,000 60,000 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Long Term Trend Recent Trend Fertility ASFR Rate Actual 4K-12 Enrollment History and Projections 872,000 870,000 868,000 866,000 864,000 862,000 860,000 858,000 856,000 854,000 852,000 850,000 5 Year Trend 3 Year Trend Fertility Rate Actual Non-Hispanic White Students 4K-12 Enrollment History and Projections 700,000 680,000 660,000 640,000 620,000 600,000 580,000 560,000 540,000 520,000 500,000 5 Year Trend 3 Year Trend Fertility Rate Actual Minority Students 4K-12 Enrollment History and Projections 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 African American 80,000 Hispanic 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 5 Year Trend 3 Year Trend Fertility Rate Actual 5 Year 3 Year Fertility Minority Students 4K-12 Enrollment History and Projections 40,000 35,000 Asian 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Native American 10,000 5,000 5 Year Trend 3 Year Trend Fertility Rate Actual 5 Year 3 Year Fertility Urban Suburban and Rural School Districts 4K-12 Enrollment History and Projections 350,000 330,000 Suburban 310,000 Urban 290,000 270,000 250,000 Rural 230,000 210,000 5 Year Trend Fertility Rate 3 Year Trend Actual Fertility Rate 5 Year Actual 3 Year 5 Year Trend Fertility 3 Year Trend Actual Total statewide public school enrollment will increase over time. Elementary schools will increase for 2 years then decline over time. Middle and high schools projected to decline for 1-2 years then increase for the foreseeable future. Non-Hispanic white population projected to continue to decline. Hispanic and Asian population projected to increase while African and Native American population projected to remain steady. Suburban districts projected to increase, urban districts projected to increase slightly after a year of decline, and rural districts projected to continue to decline. Enrollment Projections Error (2013-14) State of Wisconsin Actual (2013/14) 5 Year Trend 3 Year Trend Fertility Rate Statewide number 868,182 857,181 856,886 857,373 Actual (2013/14) 5 Year Trend 3 Year Trend Fertility Rate Urban number 299,482 292,204 292,430 292,100 Actual (2013/14) 5 Year Trend 3 Year Trend Fertility Rate Suburban number 319,819 315,938 315,666 316,180 Actual (2013/14) 5 Year Trend 3 Year Trend Fertility Rate Rural number 248,881 243,535 243,243 243,579 percent -1.3% -1.3% -1.2% percent -2.4% -2.4% -2.5% percent -1.2% -1.3% -1.1% percent -2.1% -2.3% -2.1% Public School Enrollment in Wisconsin Past, Present, & Future Sarah Kemp Associate Researcher Applied Population Laboratory University of Wisconsin-Madison (608) 265-6189 kemp@wisc.edu K-5 Enrollment History and Projections 370,000 365,000 360,000 355,000 350,000 345,000 340,000 5 Year Trend 3 Year Trend Fertility Rate Actual 6-8 Enrollment History and Projections 195,000 190,000 185,000 180,000 175,000 170,000 5 Year Trend 3 Year Trend Fertility Rate Actual 9-12 Enrollment History and Projections 295,000 290,000 285,000 280,000 275,000 270,000 265,000 260,000 5 Year Trend 3 Year Trend Fertility Rate Actual