Five Year Forecast Presentation

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Middletown City School District

Five-Year Forecast Presentation Kelley Thorpe, Treasurer

Presented May 5, 2014

May 2014 Five-Year Forecast UPDATE

• • • • Still missing some critical and necessary information Pieces of the puzzle – Negotiations and programmatic changes Forecast is designed to be a fluid document that can be modified with changes in the economic environment Does not represent the entire financial picture – only considers the General Fund

Forecast Assumptions

• Revenues: – This forecast assumes small operating revenue increase for FY15; but not beyond – Increase from ODE is planned – Decrease in property values and real estate taxes

Forecast Assumptions

• Expenditures: – This forecast assumes a slight decrease in expenses • All budget managers given a 2% reduction for FY15 • Increase in severance due to retirements (STRS Changes) • Have Included a 12% increase for health insurance for FY15 and 15% increase for outlying years

Revenue Details

Fiscal Year 2014 Fiscal Year 2015 Fiscal Year 2016 Fiscal Year 2017 Fiscal Year 2018

Revenues

General Property Tax (Real Estate) 27,586,034 27,406,695 27,456,695 27,561,158 27,763,566 Tangible Personal Property Tax (0) 0 (0) (0) 0 Unrestricted State Grants-in-Aid 25,792,965 27,158,516 27,158,516 27,158,516 27,158,516 Restricted State Grants-in-Aid Property Tax Allocation All Other Revenues 4,131,791 4,131,791 4,131,791 4,131,791 4,131,791 8,109,964 7,900,136 7,750,136 7,612,203 7,486,437 3,932,332 1,532,332 1,532,332 1,532,332 1,532,332

Total Revenues

69,553,086 68,129,469 68,029,469 67,995,999 68,072,642

Revenue Details

Operating Revenues 6% 12% 5% 40% 37%

General Property Tax (Real Estate) Unrestricted State Grants in-Aid Restricted State Grants-in Aid Property Tax Allocation All Other Revenues

Expenditure Details

Fiscal Year 2014 Fiscal Year 2015 Fiscal Year 2016 Fiscal Year 2017 Fiscal Year 2018

Expenditures

Personal Services Employees' Retirement/Insurance Benefits Purchased Services Supplies and Materials Capital Outlay Principal-HB 264 Loans Interest and Fiscal Charges Other Objects

Total Expenditures

29,197,574 29,400,568 28,824,070 28,896,130 28,968,370 11,544,685 23,841,580 1,176,343 1,600,000 11,324,410 23,742,989 12,051,189 24,338,409 13,221,135 14,622,915 24,792,918 25,256,518 1,352,816 1,393,400 1,435,202 1,478,258 160,580 77,395 705,227 210,082 84,323 691,122 214,802 75,407 698,034 219,750 66,262 705,014 229,939 56,802 712,064

68,303,384 66,806,310 67,595,311 69,336,412 71,324,867

Expenditure Details

2% 0% 35% 2% 17% 43%

Personal Services Employees' Retirement/Insurance Benefits Purchased Services Supplies and Materials Capital Outlay Debt Service: Other Objects

Comparison to October

General Property Tax (Real Estate) Unrestricted State Grants-in-Aid Restricted State Grants-in-Aid Property Tax Allocation All Other Revenues

Total Revenues

Personal Services Retirement/Insurance Benefits Purchased Services Supplies and Materials Capital Outlay Debt Service: Other Objects

Total Expenses Oct FY14

27,592,794 29,674,192 150,000 8,314,033 1,532,332

67,263,351

28,997,574 11,670,361 22,716,580 1,016,870 1,600,000 219,701 705,227

66,926,313 May FY14

27,586,034

Difference

(6,760) 25,792,965 (3,881,227) 4,131,791 3,981,791 8,109,964 (204,069) 1,468,332

67,089,086

29,197,574 11,544,685 23,841,580 1,176,343 1,600,000 237,975 (64,000)

(174,265)

-

Reason

Split with Restricted Without Borrowing Included 200,000 (125,676) More retirees than predicted 1,125,000 More students to charter/community schools 159,473 18,274 705,227

68,303,384

-

1,377,071 Cash Balance 2,760,258 2,072,921 (687,337)

Bottom Line

Cash Balance

2014 2015 2016 2,072,921 2,696,080 2,430,238 2017 2018 389,825 (3,562,400)

Important Puzzle Pieces: 1. In negotiations with MTA; no increases to base salary included in this forecast 2. Tomorrow’s election; if fail – will need to increase expenses for maintenance/repairs 3. Programmatic changes – know we need to do something different with alternative education due to Union Day closing – but decisions have not yet been finalized

Questions

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