Possible Causes of Future Wars
LTC (Retired) Oakland McCulloch
Possible Causes of Future Wars
Agenda
• The Scarcity of Resources
• Religion
• Immigration & Border Disputes
• The Rise of Nationalism & Civil Wars
• Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction
• Questions
Possible Causes of Future Wars
Scarcity of Resources
• Oil
• The world will run out of oil!
• Majority of world population has not even started using oil
• Water
• Draught affects much of the world
• Water Pollution, waste, over use, Dams
• Food
• Bio-Fuels = less food!
• Growing population – shrinking arable land
• Environment Issues
• The Rain Forest
• The North Pole
• Oceans
• Climate Change
Possible Causes of Future Wars
Religion
• More wars have been fought in the name of “God” than
any other cause
• Nine Crusades
• Look at Europe between 1560 – 1715
• Europeans finally put Religion a side with the Treaty of
Westphalia in 1648
• Islam vs. the Western Religions
• the battle to come may make the Crusades look tame
• no end in sight until Islamic countries stop having
Religion dominate every aspect of everyday life & politics
• Islam vs. the Jewish State of Israel
• no viable solution to this problem
Possible Causes of Future Wars
Immigration & Border Disputes
• Immigration is changing the demographics of Europe & US at
a very quick pace
• Changes in politics, culture and social norms
• Usually alright until something goes wrong!
• Border Disputes – “The Lies of the Map Makers”
• Many borders of the world are currently disputed
(Africa, the Stans, Asia, India/Pakistan/China, Middle East)
• Many of these borders make no sense
• US / Mexico border issues in the future due to immigration
• Countries where borders do not matter
Possible Causes of Future Wars
The Rise of Nationalism & Civil Wars
• A sharp rise in Nationalism usually equals increase in wars
and ethnic violence
• Iran, Venezuela, China, North Korea, Japan & India
• Civil wars will increase with the rise of Nationalism and the
increased pressures talked about earlier
• Civil wars between traditional parties and religious parties
• Non-traditional Civil Wars
(China-Taiwan & North-South Korea)
• Rogue Nations are the wildcard
• especially those with WMD programs
Possible Causes of Future Wars
Terrorism and WMDs
• States that sponsor terrorism (Iran, Syria, North Korea,
Saudi Arabia, Venezuela?, Pakistan?)
• Non-functioning states where terrorist hide (Afghanistan,
Yemen, Somalia, many in Africa)
• Non-State actors – al Qaeda, Palestinians, other terrorist
groups
• Use of WMD by a terrorist organization linked to a specific
nation
• What will happen when the West looses a city to a
terrorist attack by a WMD?
Possible Causes of Future Wars
Questions ?