The Economics of Global
Climate Change
Figures and Tables
By Jonathan M. Harris, Brian Roach,
And Anne-Marie Codur
Copyright © 2015 Tufts University Global Development and
Envrionment Institute
Figure 1: Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion,
1860-2010
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.html, accessed April 2013
Million Metric Tons of CO2
Figure 2: Projected Carbon Dioxide Emissions through 2030, by Region
Total (Non-OECD)
Total OECD
Year
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, 2011.
The weight of a given amount of emissions measured in tons of carbon dioxide is about 3.67 times the total weight in carbon.
Figure 3: Per-Capita Emissions of Carbon Dioxide by Country
20
Metric Tons of CO2 Per Capita
17.62
15
10
9.19
9.26
5.73
6.52
5
4.07
2.41
1.45
0.37
0
Country
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Accessed April 2013.
Figure 4: Global Annual Temperature Anomalies (°C), 1850-2012
0.6
Temperature Difference
C
Degree
(°C)
with respect to 1861-1900
0.4
0.2
-0.2
1850
1856
1862
1868
1874
1880
1886
1892
1898
1904
1910
1916
1922
1928
1934
1940
1946
1952
1958
1964
1970
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
2012
0
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
Year
Year
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; CDIAC, accessed April 2013,
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/temp/jonescru/global.txt
Note: The zero baseline represents the average global temperature from 1961-1990.
Figure 5: Shrinking Arctic Ice in the Arctic
Source: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/02/18/3302341/arctic-sea-ice-melt-ocean-absorbs-heat/.
Figure is based on data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Credit: Climate.gov.
Degrees Fahrenheit
Figure 6: Global Temperature Trends Projected to 2100
Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program, available at: http://www.globalchange.gov/
Figure 7: Global Temperature Trends Projected to 2100 – Two Scenarios
Source: IPCC, 2013
Figure 8: The Relationship between the Level of Greenhouse Gas Stabilization
and Eventual Temperature Change
Source: Stern, 2007.
Table 1: Possible Effects of Climate Change
Sources: Stern, 2007; IPCC, 2007.
Table 1: Possible Effects of Climate Change (continued)
Sources: Stern, 2007; IPCC, 2007.
Table 2: Estimates of Annual Damages to the U.S. Economy
from Global Climate Change (Billions of USD, 1990)
Agriculture
Forest loss
Species loss
17.5
3.3
4.0
3.4
0.7
1.4
1.1
X
X
1.2
43.6
X
Tol
(2.5°C)
10.0
X
5.0
Sea level rise
7.0
9.0
12.2
5.7
8.5
Electricity
Nonelectric
heating
Mobile air
conditioning
Human
amenity
11.2
7.9
1.1
5.6
X
-1.3
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
2.5
X
X
X
X
12.0
5.8
11.4
9.4
37.4
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.2
X
X
1.0
0.3
1.7
X
X
X
7.0
15.6
11.4
X
X
X
32.6
X
0.1
X
X
X
3.5
7.3
27.2
X
61.1
69.5
55.5
139.2
74.2
1.1
1.3
1
2.5
1.5
Cline
(2.5°C)
Human
mortality and
morbidity
Migration
Hurricanes
Leisure
activities
Water supply
availability
Water supply
pollution
Urban
infrastructure
Air pollution
Total in
billions
Total as
% of GDP
Fankhauser
(2.5°C)
Nordhaus
(3°C)
Titus
(4°C)
0.75%
of GDP
Source: Nordhaus and Boyer, 2000, p. 70.
Note: “X” denotes items that are not assessed or quantified.
Table 3. Damages to the U.S. Economy from Climate Change
Billions of USD, 2006
2025
2050
2075
Percentage of GDP
2100
2025
2050
2075
2100
Hurricane
Damages
10
43
142
422
0.05%
0.12%
0.24%
0.41%
Real Estate
Losses
34
80
173
360
0.17%
0.23%
0.29%
0.35%
Energy Sector
Costs
28
47
82
141
0.14%
0.14%
0.14%
0.14%
Water Costs
200
336
565
950
1.00%
0.98%
0.95%
0.93%
Total Costs
271
506
961
1873
1.36%
1.47%
1.62%
1.84%
Source: Ackerman and Stanton, 2008.
Figure 9: Present Value of a Future $100 Cost or Benefit:
The Effects of Different Discount Rates
Table 4: Regional-Scale Impacts of Climate Change by 2080
(millions of people)
Region
Europe
Asia
North
America
South
America
Africa
Increase in
Population living in
Additional population at risk of
average annual
watersheds with an
hunger (figures in parentheses
number of
increase in waterassume maximum CO2
coastal flood
resources stress
enrichment effect)
victims
382-493
0.3
0
892-1197
14.7
266 (-21)
110-145
0.1
0
430-469
0.4
85 (-4)
691-909
12.8
200 (-2)
Source: adapted from IPCC, 2007b, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch20s20-6-2.html
Note: These estimates are based on a business-as-usual scenario. The CO2 enrichment effect is increased plant
productivity, which at maximum estimates could actually decrease the number at risk of hunger.
Table 5: Alternative Carbon Taxes on Fossil Fuels
Tons of carbon per billion Btu
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
25.6
17
14.5
0.102/barrel
0.015/Mcf (million cubic feet)
Tons of carbon per standard unit
0.574/ton
of fuel
Average price (2012)
$76.30/ton $95.55/barrel
$3.20/Mcf
Carbon tax amount per unit of fuel:
$10/ton of carbon
$5.74/ton
$1.02/barrel
$0.15/Mcf
$100/ton of carbon
$57.42/ton
$10.15/barrel
$1.49/Mcf
$200/ton of carbon
$114.85/ton
$20.31/barrel
$2.98/Mcf
Carbon tax as a percent of fuel price:
$10/ton of carbon
13%
1%
4.70%
$100/ton of carbon
132%
11%
47%
$200/ton of carbon
265%
21%
93%
Source: Carbon emissions calculated from carbon coefficients and thermal conversion factors available from the U.S. Department of
Energy. Oil price is mid-November 2007 world average. Natural gas price is August 2007 average U.S. wellhead price. Coal price 2006
U.S. average. All price data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Figure 10: Gasoline Price Versus Use in Industrial Countries, 2009
$8.00
Turkey
(US $ per Gallon)
Price(USD/gallon)
Price
$7.00
$6.00
Luxembourg
$5.00
Europe
$4.00
$3.00
Iceland
New Zealand
Mexico
Canada
Australia
$2.00
United States
$1.00
$0.00
0
100
200
300
400
Consumption (Gallons per Person, 2009)
Note: Shaded area represents price/consumption range typical of West European countries.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration database; GTZ, 2009
500
Figure 11: Determination of Carbon Permit Price
$
Supply of Permits
P*
•
Demand for Permits
(WTP)
Q0
Quantity of Permits
Figure 12: Carbon Reduction Options with a Permit System
Note: Marginal costs shown here are hypothetical.
Figure 13: Climate Stabilization Wedges
Carbon Emissions pr Year (billion tons)
8 wedges:
Number
needed to
build the
stabilization
triangle
1 wedge:
Avoids 1 billion
tons of carbon
emissions per
year by 2060
2000
Source: Pacala and Socolow, 2004
2060
Euros/Ton
Figure 14: Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve to 2030
Billion Tons CO2 Equivalent
Source: McKinsey & Company, 2009.
Figure 15: Progress toward Meeting Kyoto Protocol Targets
60
40
Percent Change
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Base Year to 2010 Change
Kyoto Target
Source: UNFCCC greenhouse gas data (Note: includes land use and forestry adjustments)