Population decline in Poland –
country, regions and cities.
Some insights to policy responses
Dr Anna Kurowska
Warsaw University
Seminar on population shrinking, March 23, 2011, Brussels
Mind map of the presentation:
Characteristics of
population shrinkage
at the central, regional
and local level
Main direct
causes of
population
shrinkage at each
level
RECENT POLICY
RESPONSES TO THE
POPULATION SHRINKAGE AT
THE CENTRAL AND
REGIONAL LEVEL
Deaper causes
of population
shrinkage at the
local level (case
study)
2008
2006
2004
2002
stabilisation
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
growth
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
40000
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
1946
in thousands
Graph 1. Population in Poland 1946-2009
slight decline
38000
36000
34000
32000
30000
28000
26000
24000
22000
20000
in thousands
-0,5
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5
-1,0
post-accession (EU)
emigration
2008
2006
2004
2002
2008
2006
2004
2002
15
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
1946
20
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
per 1000 population
Graph 2. Natural increase (per 1000 population) in Poland 1946-2009
25
Fertility rate
ab 1,38
10
5
0
-5
Graph 3. Net international migration (per 1000 population) in Poland 1948-2009
1,0
0,5
0,0
Graph 4. Population prognosis for Poland 2010-2035
40 000
35 000
30 000
in thousands
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
2010
2015
2020
Total Population
Population in the cities
2025
2030
Population in the rural areas
2035
Map 1. Polish regions
in Europe – population
progosis
Map 2. Subregions in Poland –
population density in 2008 and
population change 2000-2008
Population density (inh. per 1km)
Population change 2000-2008
increase
decline
Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020
Map 3. Regions in
Poland –
population and
prognosis on
population change
2008-2030
Population in thousands
Population prognosis 2008-2030 (%)
increase
decline
Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020
Map 4. Regions of the highest population
decline between 2010-2035 (prognosis)
> -5%
> -10%
Map 5. Natural
increase in 2009 by
regions in Poland
Source: Polish Demographic Yearbook 2010
Map 6. Intensity of international
migrations (immigrations) in the pre- and
post-accession period in Polish regions.
Number of international
migrants per 1000
inhabitants
Pre-accesion period
Post-accesion period
Source: Polska 2030
Map 7. Contribution of
the regions to the
Polish GDP (2007)
In percent
In absolute value
Within voivodship centres
Outside voivodship centres
Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020
Map 8. Average GDP
per capita in
subregions as a
percent of country
average in the years
2004-2007
Average subregional
GDP per capita as a % of
Polish average in 20042007
Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020
Map 9. Subregional GDP growth compared to the country average
2004-2007
The difference between
the average growth in
Poland and GDP
dynamics in the
regions in 2004-2007
Higher than the average
Lover than average
Shrinking cities in Poland - tendencies:
Number of
inhabitants (in
thousands) of
medium size
cities
Between 1990-2004
(transformation
period):
From 38 cities with
over 100 thous.
inhabitants - 24
shrinked
After accession to EU
(2004-2009):
Number of
inhabitants (in
thousands) in
large cities
From 38 cities with
over 100 thous.
inhabitants - 35
shrinked
http://www.gazetaprawna.pl
Map 10. Cities with the highest intensity of socio-economic
problems
Problem intensity
Low
Very high
Source: Polska 2030
Graph 5. Population change in Katowice, Bytom and Sosnowiec 1950-2009
Systemic
transformation:
+ Suburbanization
Deindustrialization
400
350
in thousands
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Katowice
Sosnowiec
1990
Bytom
2000
2009
Recent policy responses at the central level:
Responses to low
natural increase:
Family policy:
-longer than UE average:
maternity (2009) and
parental leaves
Responses to negative
net international
migration:
- Program „Powrót” 2007
(Homecoming):
*e-services for Polish
emigrants:
-child tax credits (+joint
family taxation) (2007)
www.powroty.gov.pl
-family benefits: meanstested and universal –
„becikowe” (2005) (low
efficiency)
*tax-credits and lowering
social security
contributions for returning
Polish emigrantsentrepreneurs
-public kindergartens
*social campaigns
-new (2011) Act on
childcare for children up to
3 years
*language lessons for
children of Polish
emigrants
-Immigration policy
Responses internal
migration and
depopulation of some
regions and cities:
-New National Strategy for
Regional Development
(2010-2020):
*polarization-diffusion
model (PDM)
*restoring functionality to
strategic cities within the
frames of (PDM):
Szczecin, Łódź, Upper
Silesian Conurbation: e.g.
Katowice, Sosnowiec,
Bytom
* Improving accessibility to
regional growth centers
Exaples of support to the regional and local
authorities within the frames of NSRD 2010-2020:





Investments in infrastructure (highways, express roads, high-speed
railways, air connections) and institutional relations between
provincial centers
Modernization of public services in order to increase consistency,
access and efficiency
Investments in education, science and technology in those
provincial cities that are loosig their functionality
Promoting enterpreneurship in the East Poland an other areas
loosing their current socio-economic functionality
Supporting socio-economic specialization of different regions and
local areas based on their comparative advantages (supporting the
development of clusters)
NSRD 2010-2020 – examples of targets (indicators):
Target/indicators
Value in the base year
Expected value in 2020
Number of passenger transport
per 1 inhabitant in the urban areas
(Poland = 100)
174,5
226,8
The connection of provincial cities with
expressways and highways
6/18
18/18
Population living in 60 minutes isochrone
from provincial city
57,9%
68%
Number of businesses registered in the
national REGON per 1000 inhabitants aged
(15-64 years) in the cities and other areas
losing their current socio-economic
functionality
143,9
193
Concentration of GDP in the functional areas
of provincial cities:
Vivodship=100 Poland=100
50,8
51,6
Net migration to the communal permanent
residence per 1000 population in cities and
other areas losing the current functionality
-0,4
0
Policy responses at the regional and local level – case
study of (Upper) Silesian Voivodship :
Zoning + Development Strategy of Silesia
Voivodship (2004 and 2010):
1. Not much attention paid strictly to the
problem of shrinking population
2. In the context of shrinking population of the
central and North-West parts of Voivodship,
the planned directions are:
•
strengthening the functions of the nodal centers of
the settlement network (II)
•
protection of environmental
resources, strengthening
system of protected areas and multifunctional
development of open areas (III)
•
development of supra-local infrastructure systems
(IV)
•
stimulate innovation in the regional system
of space management (V)
•
interregional cooperation in the space planning (VI)
Examples of actions in the Upper Silesian Conurbation:





Creating 2 high technology
centers
Creating technology parks on
post-industrial areas i.a. in
Sosnowiec
Raising the rank of cultural
heritage objects (recognition as
a historic monument – to enter the
UNESCO World Heritage
List), including historic churches,
post-industrial buildings,
timber building
Investments in turistic areas i.a.
near Katowice (Dolina Trzech
Stawów) & Częstochowa (Jura
Krakowsko-Częstochowska)
Investments in local and
interregional transport
CONCLUSIONS:






Since the end of the XX century Polish population started to shrink. The prognosis
show that this process will continue in the next 25 years.
The major cause of the population decline is close to 0 or negative natural increase.
The second problem is the negative net international immigration rate.
Poland is characterized by significant regional differences in the natural increase and
net immigration rate. The Central-South voivodships and the East Poland are the
regions that are especially threatened by population decline.
One of the local areas that are shrinking quickly is Upper Silesian Conurbation –
highly urbanized area that experienced intensive deindustrialization during the
transformation period.
As the depopulation is regionally highly correlated with slower economic growth and
social problems, the Polish policy at the central, regional and local level is
concentrated on solving socio-economic problems and not directly on depopulation
processes. The regional policy follows the ideal of diffusion-polarization model.
The important policy actions are: enforcing regional growth centers (provincial cities),
investing in local and interregional transport, supporting entrepreneurship and
investing in technology/science and education/cultural centers.