Finding Common Ground – Disaster Resiliency,
Preparedness and Talking to our Neighbors…
 My background
 Round the room 30 second intro: Name, Why here
 How Prepared Are You?
 Resources and Book list included in PPT handout
What class is and is not – you won’t necessarily
leave ‘prepared’ 
Starting the conversation from a place of
knowledge…
Types of Disasters and their effects on our
Infrastructure (Transportation, Structures,
Communications, Water, Fuel, etc).
Objectives for class
Encourage creation of depth of knowledge
Step out of typical disciplines - study ‘how
people learn’ neuroscience and other areas of
research and study
Find more common ground.
Reduce protective conversations. Increase:
listening; pragmatism; realism; your ability to
find shared interests.
Represent well.
Question (internally) even that which you
believe in wholeheartedly. Become a crusader
for scientific, evidence based information.
Disasters and Oregon
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Peak Oil (Food Security and the rest)
Climate Change
Water Scarcity
9.1 Subduction Zone Earthquake
Tsunami
Pandemic Influenza
Volcano
Winter Storms - Severe Weather
Wildfire
Terrorism
Subduction Zone EQ
Earthquake
• Winning the Powerball Lottery
– 1 in 80,089,128
• Being hit by lightning
– 1 in 2,800,000
• A Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake
– in the next year – 1 in 500
– In the next 50 years - 1 in 5
• An earthquake occurring in the Pacific
Northwest in the next few days
– 100%
20 Minute Walkable / Bikeable
Community…
Earthquake Effects
• Communications
• Transportation
• Water/Waste Water
• Medical
• Food
• Utilities
• Duration – 2 ½ yrs
2009 US Infrastructure
Grades - ASCE
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Aviation
Bridges
Dams
Drinking Water
Energy
Hazardous Waste
Inland Waterways
Levees
D
C
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DD+
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DD-
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Parks & Recreation CRail
CRoads
DSchool
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Solid Waste
C+
Transit
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Wastewater
Dhttp://www.asce.org/reportcard/
Tsunami
• After EQ or without warning
• Head to high ground - think about your route
as soon as you find yourself at a coast
(abandon car, 100 vertical feet up)
• Water goes out - you go up
• Follow the animals
• Difficulty with inundation mapping (sea floor
map needed).
Pandemic Influenza
• Seasonal Flu - deaths per year (actual
number higher), prevention (social
distancing, hygiene and vaccine).
• Contagion
• 1918 - number of deaths = 20 million to 100
million worldwide. Problem with names
• Medicine of the day
• ‘Bird’ Flu - H5N1
• H1N1
• Duration/Cycle
Water Scarcity
• The most precious resource in the world
• What do we do with this most precious
resource in the United States?
”Civilized people ought to know
how to dispose of [the] sewage in some other
way than putting it into the drinking water.”
Teddy Roosevelt
Environmental scientists in California have
calculated that sewage discharged near 28
Southern California beaches has contributed to
up to 1.5 million excess gastrointestinal
illnesses, costing as much as $51 million in
health care. We can do better.
Water Scarcity Map
A catastrophic water shortage could prove an even
bigger threat to mankind this century than soaring food
prices and the relentless exhaustion of energy reserves,
according to a panel of global experts at the Goldman
Sachs "Top Five Risks" conference.
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Disputes over cross-border water basins have already prompted
Egypt to threaten military action against any country that draws
water off the Nile without agreement.
Lord Stern, the World Bank's former chief economist, said
governments had been slow to accept the awful truth that usable
water is running out. Fresh rainfall is not enough to refill the
underground water tables. "Water is not a renewable resource.
People have been mining it without restraint because it has not
been priced properly,”
How to properly price? Externalities of industry, enough to support
infrastructure even with conservation
Rival
Water-Related Emergencies
and Outbreaks Fast Facts
* The largest waterborne disease outbreak in United
States history occurred in 1993 in Milwaukee, WI
when over 400,000 people became ill with diarrhea
when the parasite Cryptosporidium was found in the
city's drinking water supply (3).
* Legionnaire’s Disease got its name in 1976 from
American Legion members who attended a
convention in Philadelphia and were the first to suffer
from an outbreak of this disease (4).
* Treating water with chlorine tablets, iodine tablets, or
liquid bleach will not kill all parasites that can
contaminate water; boiling or appropriate filtration is
required (6).
THE WORLD’S SILENT
EPIDEMIC
More than one billion people lack access to a
safe supply of drinking water.
Water-related diseases cause 80% of all of
the sickness of the world and are the
leading cause of death in the world,
responsible for 14,000 deaths each day.
WaterPartners International
Water
• Currently, only 91 contaminants are regulated by the Safe
Drinking Water Act, though more than 60,000 chemicals
are used within the United States.
• Today, a significant water line bursts on average every
two minutes somewhere in the country, according to a
New York Times analysis of EPA data.
• State and federal studies indicate that thousands of water
and sewer systems may be too old to function properly.
• For decades, these systems — some built around the time
of the Civil War others the same year the light bulb was
invented — have been ignored by politicians and residents
accustomed to paying almost nothing for water delivery
and sewage removal. And so each year, hundreds of
thousands of ruptures damage streets and homes and
cause dangerous pollutants to seep into drinking water
supplies.
Learn more about your
drinking water!
EPA strongly encourages people to learn more about their
drinking water, and to support local efforts to protect and
upgrade the supply of safe drinking water.
• Your water bill or telephone book's government listings are a
good starting point.
• Your local water supplier can give you a list of the chemicals
they test for in your water, as well as how your water is treated.
• Your state Department of Health/Environment is also a valuable
source of information.
• For help in locating these agencies or for information on
drinking water in general, call: EPA's Safe Drinking Water
Hotline: (800) 426-4791.
• For additional information on the uses and releases of
chemicals in your state, contact the: Community Right-to-Know
Hotline: (800) 424-9346
Peak Oil
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Duration
No silver bullet
Cascading effects – food, roads, cars…
Technology timing - Bridging the gap
Descent plan
Transition towns
Preserve & Increase
Local Food Production and
Capability
Long Term Supply Leveling Off,
Demand Outstrips Production
When Will Oil Production
Peak?
Ease of Production:
Past and Present
Energy Returned on Energy
Invested, I.e. Net Energy
U.S. Energy Mix
The problem with oil supply alternatives
Oil Shale / Oil Sands
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CO2 Emissions
Land destruction
Water Pollution
Oil Shale energy low
Coal - why not?
• Coal - why not?
– Water
– Air
– National Priority: Cut CO2 Pollution at least 80%
by 2050 (source) National Resource Defense
Council - get slide
– Is this realistic - can we do it- the need for a
bridge resource of energy…what is it?
Nuclear
Hydrogen
BioFuels
Renewables: Wind & Solar
Consume Less Stuff
Reinvigorate Rail
Transit Alternatives
Conservation, Transportation
& Land Use Policies
Pedestrian/Bicycle Friendly
Developments
20 minute Communities
Climate Change
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Dinosaurs farting or people driving…
Science – CPR
Mosquitoes and other cooties
Climate ‘weirding’ - hot=hotter, cold=colder,
stormy=stormier - but not always…
• Migrations, Greenland
• Gardeners…
Volcanoes
• Mt Rainer, Mt Tabor, Mt Hood,
Yellowstone…
• Ash
• Lahars
• Planes, trains and automobiles
• Respiratory
• Roofs
Winter Weather/Severe
Storms - Wildfire
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Rural vs Urban (MN vs Portland)
Self Reliance
911 and the rain storm
Sheltering and Feeding
Wildfire
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Risks
Mitigation
Prevention
Evacuation
Long Term Recovery - land use,
How to Prepare
• Limitation of 72 hour ‘kits’ - what are they
really good for?
• How long should you be prepared? How do
you do that?
• Inter-dependant vs Independent
• Romantic-ization vs Realism
• Acceptance of all efforts as valid and
concurrent – support vs attack
What Can You Do?
• Reach out to your neighbors – learn how to make friends
• Continue your training – Build Skills - trade skills, food
skills, advocacy skills
• Develop internal sources of strength – read some of the
books listed on this presentation – become resilient
• Get civically active - participate in local politics - fix it
• Spread the word - know your facts, be open to additional
information & focus on your interests and strengths and
encourage others to do the same.
"Adversity introduces you to yourself,"
John McDonnell, former CEO McDonnell Douglas
Princeton University basketball coach, Pete Carril,
"Adversity doesn't build character, it reveals it."
Challenges, difficulties, setbacks, adversities…
They are all familiar sights on the leadership
landscape. One of the things they cause us to
do is come face-to-face with ourselves. They
are a rather harsh way of reminding us of what
is truly important to us, what we really value,
and what we want our life to be about.
Food/Water Book List
• Last Oasis: Facing Water Scarcity (The Worldwatch
Environmental Alert Series) by Sandra Postel
(Paperback - Jun 1997)
• Cadillac Desert: The American West and Its
Disappearing Water, Revised Edition by Marc
Reisner (Paperback - Jan 1, 1993)
• Outgrowing The Earth by Lester R. Brown
(Paperback - Jan 2005)
Food Book List
• The Post-Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook:
Recipes for Changing Times by Albert Bates
(Paperback - Oct 1, 2006)
• Whole Foods Companion: A Guide For Adventurous
Cooks, Curious Shoppers, and lovers of natural foods
by Dianne Onstad (Paperback - Mar 30, 2004)
• The Sustainable Kitchen: Passionate Cooking Inspired
by Farms, Forests and Oceans by Stu Stein, Judith H.
Dern, and Mary Hinds (Paperback - May 1, 2004)
• Emergency Food Storage & Survival Handbook:
Everything You Need to Know to Keep Your Family
Safe in a Crisis by Peggy Layton (Paperback - Oct 22,
2002)
Gardening Book List
• Four-Season Harvest: Organic Vegetables from
Your Home Garden All Year Long by Eliot Coleman,
Barbara Damrosch, and Kathy Bray (Paperback Oct 1, 1999)
• Gaia's Garden, Second Edition: A Guide To HomeScale Permaculture by Toby Hemenway (Paperback
- May 19, 2009)
• Gardening When It Counts: Growing Food in Hard
Times (Mother Earth News Wiser Living Series) by
Steve Solomon (Paperback - April 1, 2006)
Emergency Management
Book List
• Disciplines, Disasters and Emergency Management:
The Convergence and Divergence of Concepts,
Issues and Trends from the Research Literature by
David A. Mcentire (2007)
• Disaster Policy and Politics: Emergency Management
and Homeland Security by Richard Sylves (2008)
• Holistic Disaster Recovery: Ideas for Building Local
Sustainability After a Natural Disaster (2003)
Emergency Management
Book List
• The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil,
Climate Change, & Other Converging Catastrophes of
the 21st Century, James Howard Kunstler (2006)
• The Survivor Personality, Al Siebert, PhD (1994)
• The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes
and Why, Amanda Ripley
• The Gift of Fear by Gavin de Becker (1999)
• Emotional Intelligence: Why It Can Matter More Than
IQ by Daniel Goleman (2006)
Leadership Book List
• The Leadership Challenge, 4th Edition by James M.
Kouzes and Barry Z. Posner (2008)
• How to Win Friends & Influence People by Dale
Carnegie (1998)
• Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In
by Roger Fisher, William L. Ury, and Bruce Patton
(1991)
• Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify
Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts by Carol
Tavris and Elliot Aronson (2007)
Resources
Alice Busch, sfd72fmo@hotmail.com
503-668-2728 direct ; 503-237-4152 pager;
971-563-3051 cell
http://www.oregongeology.com/sub/default.htm
http://www.eatthesuburbs.org/edap-primer/
http://www.firewise.org/
http://www.worldwatch.org/
http://www.transitionus.org/
Interesting video of James Woolsey, former CIA Director
http://fora.tv/2008/09/01/Climate_Change_and_Energy_Se
curity#James_Woolsey_The_Reality_of_Moving_Away_
From_Oil