A Future Oriented Approach
to China-Japan Relations
For
A talk at Sagamore Institute, 26 March 2013
Shunji Cui
Fulbright Scholar-in-Residence, 2012-13
Marian University
A Future Oriented Approach to
China-Japan Relations
1.
2.
3.
4.
The Current State of China-Japan
Relations – Tensions over East China
Sea Disputes
Why It Has Proved to be So Difficult?
‘The Drums of War’ or Can it be Avoided?
How do China and Japan Move towards
a Future Oriented Direction?
Fishing Platform/Pinnacle Islands
钓鱼台列屿 / 尖閣列島
Diaoyu/Senkaku (D/S) Islands

A chain of tiny 8 islands
5
uninhabitable
islands,
 3 barren rocks
 All are volcanic
formations from the
Neocene age

Largest Island
 钓鱼台Diaoyutai
(S)
 鱼钓岛Uotsurisima(J)
 surface area: 3.5 skm.
Geographical Location

120 nautical miles
northeast of Taiwan

200 nm east of PRC

200 nm southwest of
Naha, Okinawa
UN Convention on the
Law of the Sea,1982

Territorial Waters– 12nm

The sovereign territory of
the state
 But foreign ships (both
military and civilian) are
allowed innocent passage
through it

Exclusive Economic
Zone—200nm

Control of all economic
resources, including fishing,
mining, oil exploration, and
any pollution of those
resources.
D/S Island Disputes: Downward Spirals?






2012-9-11: Japan’s “nationalization” of 3 of the
Islands
Followed by Chinese maritime surveillance ships
entering into disputed waters – even within 12nm
Small aircraft of China’s State Oceanic Bureau
flew into airspace over the D/S
Japan deploying Airborne Warning and Control
Systems (AWACS)
Global Times (China) argued: “we need to prepare
for the worst”, if Japan not be deterred.
Situation worse than 2005  Possible War?
2012 over Islands row
Why It Has Proved to be So Difficult?

Conflictual Claims

Political & Emotional
Japan’s Claim: I





1885~: 10-y survey, terra nullius (land
without owner)
1895-1-14: Meiji Cabinet’s decision to
incorporate the islands into Japanese territory
 actual control.
1896-4-1: Placed under the administration of
Ishigaki, Yaeyama District, Okinawa Prefecture
1895-4-17: Signing the Treaty of Shimonoseki
1895-5: the Treaty came to effect.
Japan's Claim: After WWII

1951: The San Francisco Treaty (US-J)
 Japan
renounced claims to a number of
territories and islands including Taiwan
 the Nansei Shoto (Nansei islands) came
under US trusteeship

1971: the Okinawa reversion deal
 Nansei



Shoto returned to Japan
The islands are under Japan’s control
No disputes over the Islands
China is just for oil
China’s Claim: Historical 1
 Not
terra nullius , but have been part of its territory
since ancient times.
 Historical
Records:

1430, 顺风相送(Fair winds for escort), earliest, a
non-official Chinese navigational record.

1534, 使琉球录, earliest official record of the
Imperial Envoy's Visit to Ryūkyū.
 Those
islands served as important fishing grounds
administered by the province of Taiwan.
China’s Claim: Historical 2

1874: Japan took Ryukyu Islands
 Japan
took Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa) from
China by force when Chinese Qing Dynasty was
involved in several wars with other foreign
countries
 However, the Diaoyu Islands still remained under
the administration of Taiwan, a part of China.

1895: The Treaty of Shimonoseki
 After
being defeated by Japan in the Sino-Japan
War (1894-95), China ceded Taiwan to Japan
under the Shimonoseki Treaty.
 As a part of Taiwan, the Diaoyutai Islands
belonged to Japan at that time.
China’s Claim: after WWII


Cairo Declaration (1943) & Potsdam
Proclamation (1945)
 Taiwan was returned to China at the end of
World War II
 The Japanese government accepted the terms
that stated in these documents "...that all the
territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese,
such as Manchuria and Formosa(Taiwan) shall
be restored to the Republic of China.”
Thus, deny the effects of 1951 San Francisco
Treaty (US-J).
Difficulty II: Sovereignty and Beyond

Japan:
Control – No sovereign Issue
 Concern of Okinawa
 China’s Rise, perceived assertiveness, and
threat
 Actual

China:
– reminding its weakness and
humiliation, and Historical injustice in modern
history.
 Vulnerable to Nationalist sentiments
 US Asian Policy
 Emotional
Shared Interests in Deescalating
Their Relations

Economic Impacts (by the end of 2012):




Nissan’s sales in China have fallen 5.3 % to 1.18
million units,
Toyota’s by 4.9 % to 840,000 units,
Japanese direct investment in China fell by almost a
third – (ASEAN looking for opportunity)
Tourism –(2012-9-21)


ANA: nearly 4,000 Japanese canceled their plans to
visit China.
The Japanese National Tourist Association: 20% drop
in numbers visiting Japan from China
Japanese car sales in China in 2012
Source:
China Daily
2013-1-8
Shared Willingness and Efforts






Natsuo Yamaguchi’s meeting with Xi Jinping (in Beijing,
2013-1).
The eighth Tokyo-Beijing Forum (in Tokyo, July 2, 2012).
Dialogue on D/S Island disputes (in HZ, 2012-10)
The International Politics of East Asia and the East
China Sea (in Hangzhou, China, December 14-15,
2012)
To Japan-China Dialogue: Toward a Future Oriented
Japan-China Relationship (in Tokyo, Jnuary 23-24,
2013).
Strong calling for ‘wisdom’ in settling territorial disputes
What Can be Done for A Future
Oriented Relations?
1.
Managing the Disputes
2.
Managing the Great Power Relations
3.
Enhancing People-to-People Relations
1. Managing the Disputes
Understand/Accept the New Reality
1.


2.
China: Japan’s nationalization of Islands
Japan: existing disputes over sovereignty
Shelving the dispute & Searching for joint
cooperation
 Fishing;
3.
Energy
No entry into disputed area
 Set
up ‘hot lines’ to prepare for contingency
 Establish UN Environmental Protection Areas
‘Japan and China have struck a deal for the joint
development of a gas field in the East China Sea,
resolving a protracted bilateral dispute.’
BBC, 18 June 2008
China: Chunxiao Gas Field
2. Managing the Great Power
Relations

China:
 Clear
vision of regional/global governance
 Stronger demonstration of its Peaceful rise

Japan:
 Accepting

China’s rise
US
 Policy
of pivot Asia: accommodating China
3. Enhancing People-to-People
Relations

China-Japan: move beyond history –
forward looking
 Reconciliation
 Kim

Dae-jung examples
Constructing Friendly Relations
 Cross-Strait
Example
 Identity among people in Taiwan
Thank You !!!