Why Population Matters
An introduction
Population Matters 135-137 Station Road, London E4 6AG +44(0)20 8123 9116 www.populationmatters.org enquiries@populationmatters.org
Patrons: Sir David Attenborough OM CH CVO CBE ● Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta ● Professor Paul Ehrlich ● Dr Jane Goodall DBE ● Professor John Guillebaud ●
Susan Hampshire OBE ● Dr James Lovelock CBE ● Professor Aubrey Manning OBE ● Professor Norman Myers CMG ● Chris Packham ● Sara Parkin OBE ●
Jonathon Pomitt CBE ● Lionel Shriver ● Sir Crispin Tickell GCMG KCVO
Population Matters is the working name of the Optimum Population Trust. Regd. charity no. 1114109. Regd. company no. 3019081. Regd. office as above.
Slide 2
Summary
1. Current world consumption levels are
already unsustainable
2. Per capita consumption and population
are still rising rapidly and sustainable
business practices are limited
3. We need to address all three factors to
bring supply and demand for resources
and biodiversity into long term balance
Slide 3
Introducing Population Matters
•
Founded in 1991 as the Optimum Population Trust and the only
UK population concern group
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Campaigns for stabilisation and gradual population decrease
globally and in the UK to sustainable (optimum) levels
•
Conducts lobbying, media activity, on line and local campaigning
•
Patrons: David Attenborough, Partha Dasgupta, Professor Paul
Ehrlich, Jane Goodall, Susan Hampshire, John Guillebaud,
James Lovelock, Aubrey Manning, Norman Myers, Sara Parkin,
Chris Packham, Jonathon Porritt, Lionel Shriver and Crispin
Tickell
•
Funded from members and donations: you can join from £20 pa
(£5 concessions) at www.optimumpopulation.org
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Why does it matter?
“No generation has a freehold on
this earth. All we have is a life
tenancy, with a full repairing
lease.”
- Margaret Thatcher
Slide 5
How well are we looking after our
planet?
“Populations of tropical species are plummeting
and humanity’s demands on natural resources
are sky-rocketing to 50 per cent more than the
earth can sustain
The 2010 (Living Planet) report finds that our
demand on natural resources has doubled since
1966.”
WWF 13th October 2010
Slide 6
How well are we looking after
ourselves?
Over one billion hungry
UN FAO
11 million children die before age five UN
More than 500,000 women die in
pregnancy or childbirth
Wildlife down avg. 30% in 40 years
UN
2/3 popn. water stressed by 2025
UN FAO
Oil production peaked in 2005
US Govt.
Slide 7
WWF
..and then there’s climate change
• Uncertain rainfall – droughts and
desertification
• Melting glaciers – loss of water for
irrigation
• Changing temperatures – loss of crops
and wild life/ sea life
• Rising sea levels - flooding
Slide 8
Population - historical
Slide 9
Population - religious
For every one person alive at
the time of Jesus Christ,
there are 35 alive today
Slide 10
Population – 1960 to 2050
9,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
1960
Slide 11
2000
2050
Resources are limited
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Fresh water is finite and degradable
Fertile soil is finite and degradable
Energy at current prices is finite
The climate and the seas are degradable
Plant life and minerals are finite
Wildlife and sea life are finite and degradable
Quality of life is degradable
These resources are interdependent
Slide 12
Things aren’t great now
Millennium Development Goals by 2015
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Achieve universal primary education
Promote gender equality and empower women
Reduce child mortality rate
Improve maternal health
–
6.
7.
8.
Slide 13
Target 5B: Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive
health
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases
Ensure environmental sustainability
Develop a global partnership for development
Development has two pros and cons
Demographic transition
Economic
development
Economic
development
Population
stabilisation
Reproductive
health
Slide 14
Health
+
Consequences of growth
Pollution and
loss of
habitat
Longevity
Gender
equality
High input
western diets
-
Higher
energy use
Higher
resource use
Technology has pros and cons, too
For good…
• Contraception
• Conservation
• Renewable energy
• Desalination plants
• Efficient resource use
• New materials
• New technologies
Slide 15
Or ill
• Logging
• Bottom trawling
• Sonar based fishing
• High input
monoculture
• Mass air travel
• Patio heaters
Growth happens till limits are reached
• Sexual impulse is strong and instinctive
• Sexual intercourse often leads to reproduction
unless this is obstructed
• Individuals will seek to:
– procreate
– prosper
– prolong their lives
• Population and consumption will grow unless
constrained by artificial or natural means
Slide 16
UN Population Projections to 2050
(log scale)
11
9
8
Slide 17
3 billion is
a big
difference!
It’s the
size of the
entire
world
population
in 1960.
Growth by continent (log scale)
World
Asia
Africa
Latin America
Europe
North America
Slide 18
We must take responsibility for our
actions and for the world we live in
• What drives
consumption?
• What can we do
about it?
– Lifestyle/ living
standards
– Government and
business practices
– Live a green lifestyle
– Number of people
– Fund access to family
planning and have
fewer children
– Encourage sustainable
behaviours
Is having many children irresponsible and unethical?
Slide 19
Our critics feel strongly about us…
• “The barmy Malthusians at OPT” – David Aaronovitch
• “(PopOffsets)…offers a way for elitist racists to feel ethical in their
quest to exterminate the third world masses.”- climategateTV
• “The odious OPT is a zombie-like Malthusian organisation devoted
to the cause of human depletion.” – Frank Furedi
• “…this red herring of population…” – Duncan Green, Oxfam
• “Unequal distribution is the problem. The malthusianists/ protofascists in the OPT would have you believe otherwise...”- Andy
Hewett, Green Party
• “here is a message … to the population control freaks … mind
your own reproducing business.”- Dominic Lawson
• “…most of those who are obsessed with population growth are
post-reproductive wealthy white men…” – George Monbiot
• “(OPT) are talking dangerous nonsense… overconsumption, not
overpopulation, is what really imperils the planet. …” - Fred Pearce
• “There are ways of 'fighting' climate change that are going to lead to
a lot of oppression, you don't have to be a conspiracy crank to be
worried” – Derek Wall, Green Party
Slide 20
Population Matters are allegedly anti…
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People
Family
Women
Children
Fun
Freedom
Slide 21
•
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God
Third world
Poor people
Rich people
Immigrants
Native populations
The “taboo”
• Why do many people hate to talk about
population?
– Philosophical
– Historical/ personal
– Practical
Slide 22
Philosophical basis for taboo
• Past predictions did not come to pass
– Malthus in 1800s; Ehrlich in 1960s
• Selective breeding is unacceptable
– Eugenics; Hitler 11m dead; ethnic cleansing
• Coercive family planning is unacceptable
– India under Indira; Chinese one child policy
• Individual/ third world/ women’s rights
– We can’t tell people what to do
Slide 23
Historical/ personal basis for taboo
• Religious tenets – Go forth and multiply
• National security – Breed more soldiers
• Family economy – Two hand, one mouth
• Masculinity – A fertile man is a real man
• Children provide - a sense of achievement/ ownership/
companionship/ future accomplishment
• Instinct - to procreate and love one’s children
Slide 24
Practical basis for the taboo
• People won’t respond to an appeal for restraint
• Who’ll look after us all when we get old?
• Too slow to affect climate change
• It’s a distraction from the “real problem” e.g.
permissiveness, capitalism, greed, carbon
emissions, meat eating etc.
Slide 25
How do we respond to these taboos?
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State the facts
Focus on now and the future, not the past
Talk about sustainability
Acknowledge role of other solutions
Talk about the practical steps needed
Slide 26
What approaches are ethical?
Easier - Should we?
• For developing countries
– Encourage economic
development
– Encourage gender equality
– Fund reproductive healthcare
• For the UK
– Improve opportunities and
education for young women
– Improve sex education
– Improve the quality of family
planning advice
• Advertise contraception before
the watershed
Slide 27
Harder – Should we?
• Have balanced migration
• Pay universal child benefit for
only the first two children
• Provide family planning
services to teenagers without
their parents’ knowledge
• Require pharmacists to stock
the ‘morning after’ pill
• Allow abortion on request
• Pay people to
– delay childbearing
– be sterilised
• Impose fines and/ or loss of
benefits for ‘too many’ children
green=yes, amber=poss., red=no
Easier - Should we?
• For developing countries
– Encourage economic
development
– Encourage gender equality
– Fund reproductive healthcare
• For the UK
– Improve opportunities and
education for young women
– Improve sex education
– Improve the quality of family
planning advice
• Advertise contraception before
the watershed
Slide 28
Harder – Should we?
• Have balanced migration
• Pay automatic tax credit/
benefit for first two children
• Provide family planning
services to teenagers without
their parents’ knowledge
• Require pharmacists to stock
the ‘morning after’ pill
• Allow abortion on request
• Pay adults to
– delay childbearing
– be sterilised
• Impose penalties for ‘too many’
children
Countries with lower birth rates have often
achieved this without fiscal pressure
129
53
27
18
15
14
3
2
Up to 1
Over 1
to 2
Over 2
to 3
Over 3
to 4
Over 4
to 5
Over 5
to 6
Over 6
to 7
No. of countries: Average total fertility rate 2005-2010 Source: UN
Slide 29
Over 7
to 8
Our key goals
• Universal access to reproductive health – 215m
women can’t afford or have available modern
contraception
• Gender equality and social development worldwide to
provide the conditions for smaller families
• Reducing the incidence of undesired conceptions
through better education and healthcare
• Asking people to have one or two children rather than
three or four for environmental/ sustainability reasons
• We accept the important of sustainable lifestyles and
business practices
Slide 30
Summary
1. Current world consumption levels are
already unsustainable
2. Per capita consumption and population
are still rising rapidly and sustainable
business practices are limited
3. We need to address all three factors to
bring supply and demand for resources
and biodiversity into long term balance
Slide 31