Air pollution in India
Achievements and challenges
Earth Science and Climate Change
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Environment Education & Youth Services
Energy Environment Technology Development
Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology
22nd Oct 2013
Sumit Sharma, Fellow, TERI
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Air pollution disasters- shifting bases
London Smog of 1952
 Donora, Pennsylvania,
US, 1948

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Scope
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Indian growth story
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Growth of India
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463 times
3.5 times
50 times
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Urban centres
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Urban
agglomerates
53 cities with
population more
than 1 million
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Megacities : New Delhi
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Cities with older fleets
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Transitioned cities : Bangalore
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Growing cities : Jaipur
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Small cities : Panjim
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Growth in Number of Motor Vehicles
Over 1/3rd of the total vehicles in 53 million +cities
Second tier cities show greater increase in vehicle population
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tractors,
MoRTH,
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trailors,
three wheelers
(passenger
vehicles), etc
Centre for Environmental studies
12
Expect more growth
•
About 28000 two
wheelers, and 4200
cars added to India’s
vehicular fleet daily
(2011)

As per Census 2011,
21% households have
two wheelers whereas
4.7 % have
cars/jeeps/vans
Data WDI, 2011
•
More growth expected
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700
631
600
500
439
400
387 385
359
314
383
304
279
263
300
161 182
200
231 256
177
88
100
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Pvt. vehicles per 1000 people
Lack of public transport infrastructure
Metros just started in few cities
Buses are just 1% of the total vehicular fleet
Inconvenience in public transport leading to
more private vehicle ownership in most of the
cities
 Low vehicles/Population in Mumbai, Kolkata
having better public infrastructure



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Auto Fuel Policy 2002
Bharat Stage II
Bharat Stage
III
Bharat Stage
IV
2&3
wheelers
Entire country
April 2005
Entire country
April 2010
To be decided
All other
new
vehicles
Entire country
April 2005
11 citiesApril 2003
Category
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Entire country 20 cities by
April 2010
April 2010
13 citiesApril 2005
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No date for rest
of the country
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15
?
Regional differentiation
One set of standards for air quality
 Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for
13 cities and rest of the country
 Many other cities in the country are much more polluted
than the ones where better quality fuel is presently
provided.
 Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities, may fill
the inferior quality fuel and may end up choking their
engines
 No road map after 2010

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Learnings from AFP2002
 The
rate of increase in pollution levels in Bharat III
cities moved along a significantly lower trajectory
than a BAU scenario would have indicated
 During this time, the increase in pollution levels in
non-Bharat III cities was steep
 No progress has been made on performance
improvement of in-use vehicles
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Impact on air quality (PM10)
*13 cities : Selected in AFP, 2002 for advanced implementation of BS norms
** Other cities which show higher increase in RSPM in the last 8 years.
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Data source
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: CPCB, NAMP
Learnings from AFP2002
 Heavy
duty trucks (highest contributors to PM) could not
achieve BS-IV norms due to unavailability of fuel across the
country
 Very high growth of vehicles negated the benefits provided
by AFP 2002
 The focus was more on PM control and less reductions
achieved in NOx , and hence, further advancements
required
 The share of older highly polluting vehicles in emissions is
going to reduce in future , hence need to focus on
improving emissions from newer vehicles
 Old driving cycles used for testing may not result in onroad reductions as depicted during emissions tests.
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Effects of introduction of BS norms (2010)
on emissions
2500
Emission (kt/year)
2000
-19%
1500
1000
-36%
500
-36%
0
No control
PM10
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BS-I
NMVOC
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BS-II
NOX
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PM reductions have been more than NOx
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estimation
Inuse vehicles -Unaccounted emissions due to driving
cycles for emission testing
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Unaccounted emissions …
• Unregistered vehicles
• Overloading
• Limited maintenance and ineffective PUC system
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Transport – Its not just PM !!
Highest contributor to NOx emissions in India
 Gaseous pollutants (NOx, SO2, VOCs) lead to
secondary PM formation
 NOx and VOCs can lead to formation of ground level
Ozone (impacts health + agriculture)
 BC (a constituent of PM) has a significant warming
potential.

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23
Impacts and motivation
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Air quality (2011)
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NAMP data
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Air quality (2011)
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PM2.5
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Satellite view (AOD)
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NO2
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Ozone simulations
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Urban air quality (Delhi)- PM10
Banning old vehicles
Cleaner fuels and
vehicles
Shift industries
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Urban air quality (Delhi)- NOx & vehicles
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Urban air quality (Delhi)- CO
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Urban air quality (Delhi)- SO2
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Ozone- Civil lines (Delhi) (9-14th Feb 2013)
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Ozone- R.K. Puram (Delhi) (9-14th Feb 2013)
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PM2.5 is 5th Leading Mortality Risk Factor
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Ambient PM2.5
caused an
estimated
627,000 deaths
̴ 6% of all
deaths in 2010
GBD-Lancet, 2012
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Effects on Ozone on crop productivity
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Source apportionment studies
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PM2.5 (Average)
100%
0
13
2
80%
50
60%
70
6
4
40%
50
20%
16
4
0
3
5
10
0%
Bangalore
29
Delhi
Pune
Transport
Paved road & soil dust
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Domestic
DG sets
Secondary
Others
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Transport emissions and climate change
•Particles emitted from diesel vehicles contain
black carbon
Black carbon
•Gases (NOx, VOCs) emitted from different
sources form Ozone
•Black carbon is now known to have second
highest radiative forcing after CO2
Ozone
•Other than health and agricultural effects it is
contributing to warming of the planet
•Reducing emissions may result into co-benefits
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Radiative Forcing of Climate (1750 to present):
Important Contributions from Air Pollutants
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What IPCC- AR5 says
•43% higher RF mainly due to growth in GHGs and improved
estimates of RF by aerosols indicating a weaker net cooling effect.
•Climate models now include more cloud and aerosol processes, and
their interactions
•Observational and modelling evidences suggest locally higher surface
temperatures in polluted regions will increase peak levels of ozone.
•Short term climate forcers, such as black carbon can be comparable
to CO2’s for short time horizons , but in the long term the effect of
CO2 dominates .
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Fugitive emissions at petrol pumps
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Effect of Vapour Recovery System on VOC at
fuelling stations in Urban Delhi during winter
VOC levels at different petrol pumps with and without VRS
during winter season
1200
60
VOC (ppb)
1000
49
48
800
50
40
600
30
25
23
400
VRS Off
VRS On
%reduction
20
200
10
0
0
1
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2
3
4
Petrol pumps
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Solutions for control of transport emissions
Control
•Provide ULSD in the entire country and a clear roadmap for advancement of
emission norms for the whole country
•Effective inspection and maintenance program
•Standards for fugitive emissions
Shift
•Enhancement of public transport (bus/rail/waterways) and non-motorized
transport
•Alternate fuels: CNG, LPG etc.
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45
Thanks
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