Science Based Metrics
for Sustainable
Outcomes In Agriculture
2014 NIAA Annual Conference & NIAA/USAHA
Joint Forum on Trichomoniasis Standards
Marty Matlock, PhD, PE, BCEE
Executive Director, Office for Sustainability
Professor , Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department
University of Arkansas
Everything is Connected
2
Everything is changing
3
World Population Growth In Context
12
11
10
2100
9
8
Billions
7
Old
Stone
Age
Time of our
Children and
Grandchildren
Future
2010
6
2000
5
Time of our
Parents and
Grandparents
4
3
1975
Era of
Democracy
1950
2
1900
1
Era of Monarchs
1+ million
years
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
A.D.
1
?
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
4
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
UN Population Projections
Population (Billions)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
5
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
UN Population Projections
12
Population (Billions)
Projected with current fertility rates
10
8
6
4
2
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
6
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
UN Population Projections
Population (Billions)
12
10
8
6
Median Estimate
4
2
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
7
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
UN Population Projections
Population (Billions)
12
What we do in
the next 10
years will shape
Earth and
Humanity for the
next 100 years
10
8
6
4
When technology and culture collide
technology prevails, culture changes
2
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
8
We are all in this together
Billions
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
Less Developed Regions
2
1
0
1950
More Developed Regions
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
9
Elements of Sustainable Agriculture
PEOPLE
EQUITABLE
PROFIT
SUSTAINABLE
BEARABLE
VIABLE
PLANET
10
Human Activities Dominate Earth
Croplands and pastures are the largest terrestrial biome, occupying over
40% of Earth’s land surface
11
Persistent vs Important Issues
Persistent Issues
Locally grown
GMO crops
Organic crops
Natural
Important Issues
Water use efficiency
Soil erosion
Soil organic carbon
Land use change –
biodiversity loss
From Jason Clay, WWF
Meeting Food Needs by 2050
Jason Clay
The role of
research
13
Key Sustainability Challenges for
Agriculture
1. In order to meet projected demands for food, feed,
fiber and fuel from the land we must increase
production (output per year) by 50 to 100 percent in
the next four decades.
2. If global production is not increased, US and European
production must compensate by increasing even more.
3. If we want to preserve biodiversity and other landbased ecosystem services we must freeze the
footprint of agriculture.
4. Thus yield (output per area) must more than double in
the next 40 years in the US and Europe.
5. Energy scarcity will drive innovation while limiting
expansion of productivity.
6. Water scarcity will limit productivity globally.
The Food Supply Chain
Processing
Production
Safety
Distribution
Security
Stability
Direct Mktg
Wholesale
Retail
Consumption
15
Sustainability Initiatives
16
The Issue is TRUST
1. Consumer attitudes
2. Social License – freedom to
operate
3. Criteria for legitimacy
4. Market competitiveness
5.Reputational Risks!
(Re)Building Trust in the Food System
Sustainability is Continuous
Improvement
1. Define
A. Define Sustainability for the Enterprise
B. Define Key Performance Indicators
C. Select Metrics for KPIs
2. Measure
A. Benchmark KPI Metrics
B. Set Goals for Each KPI
C. Develop Strategy to Meet Goals
3. Implement
A. Implement the Strategy
B. Measure, Assess and Report Results
C. Adapt Strategy to Improve Outcomes
21
How We Define Sustainable
Agriculture
Meeting the
needs of the
present while
improving the
ability of
future
generations
to meet their
own needs
• Increasing productivity to
meet future food and
fiber demands
• Improving the
environment
• Improving the social and
economic well-being of
agricultural communities
Framework of Goals
Aspirational
Long
Strategic
Tactical
Planning Horizon
Vision
Management
Operational
Short
Breadth of Goal
Criteria for Key Performance Indicators of
Sustainable Agriculture
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are
things we measure to inform decisions.
KPIs should be:
1. Outcomes Based.
2. Science Driven.
3. Technology Neutral.
4. Transparent.
Environmental Key Performance
Indicators for Agriculture
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Energy Use
Water Use
Land Use
Water Quality
Nutrient Use Efficiency
Habitat/Biodiversity
25
KPIs: Sentinels for Threats
26
KPIs: Sentinels for Threats
27
Human Water Security
Threat Index
http://riverthreat.net/
28
Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. C.J. Vorosmarty, P.B. McIntyre, M.O. Gessner, D. Dudgeon, A. Prusevich, P. Green, S. Glidden,
S.E. Bunn, C.A. Sullivan, C. Reidy Liermann, and P.M. Davies. Nature 467, 555-561 (30 September 2010) doi:10.1038/nature09440
Persistent vs Important Issues
Persistent Issues
Locally grown
GMO crops
Organic crops
Natural
Important Issues
Water use efficiency
Soil erosion
Soil organic carbon
Land use change –
biodiversity loss
From Jason Clay, WWF
Livestock GHG emissions
are estimated at 7.1
gigatonnes CO2e per year.
This is 14.5 percent of
human-induced GHG
emissions.
30
Potential GHG emissions
reductions from nutrition,
manure, and husbandry
practices.
Increasing forage digestibility and
digestible forage intake will generally
reduce GHG emissions
from rumen fermentation and stored
manure.
Dietary lipids are effective in reducing
enteric CH4 emissions.
Supplementation with small amounts
of concentrate feed to increase
animal productivity
31
Global emissions by sector
32
Field to Market
The Alliance for Sustainable
Agriculture
Field to Market Membership
34
Measuring US Soybean
Sustainability Metrics
35
US Ag Sustainability Initiatives
ISO Standard for LCA
I
NTERNATIONAL STANDARD
ISO 14044
First edition
2006-07-01
Environmental management — Life cycle assessment:
Requirements and guidelines
Reference number:
ISO 14044:2006(E)
ISO 14044 was prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 207,
Environmental management, Subcommittee SC 5, Life cycle
assessment.
This first edition of ISO 14044, together with ISO 14040:2006, cancels
and replaces ISO 14040:1997, ISO 14041:1998, ISO 14042:2000 and
ISO 14043:2000, which have been technically revised.
37
Phases of a Life Cycle Assessment
Life Cycle Assessment Framework
Goal and Scope
Definition
Direct Applications:
Inventory
Analysis
Impact
Assessment
Interpretation
•
•
•
•
•
Process Improvement
Product Assessment
Policy Analysis
Strategic Planning
Risk Management
ISO Standard for LCA
The International Organization for Standards (ISO) is a network of the
national standards institutes of 162 countries, one member per country,
with a Central Secretariat in Geneva, Switzerland, that coordinates the
system.
ISO is a non-governmental organization that forms a bridge between the
public and private sectors. On the one hand, many of its member institutes
are part of the governmental structure of their countries, or are mandated by
their government. On the other hand, other members have their roots
uniquely in the private sector, having been set up by national partnerships of
industry associations.
http://www.iso.org/
39
Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) to
Understand and Manage
Supply Chain Processes
40
LCA allows for impact
assessment from cradle to
grave
Raw
Material
A
Product
1
Raw
Material
B
41
LCA allows for impact
assessment from cradle to
grave
Raw
Material
A
Product
1
Raw
Material
B
Boundaries matter
42
Life Cycle Assessment Allocation
Kg CO2e per kg
By Mass?
By Value?
+
=
+
+
43
Benchmark KPIs for GHG
• National Life Cycle Carbon Footprint Study for
the Production of US Swine
– Carbon Footprint – 2.48 lb CO2e per serving
– Emission Contributions
•
•
•
•
•
Sow Barn: 9.6%, including feed and manure handling
Nursery to Finish: 52.5%, including feed and manure handling
Processing and Packaging: 6.9%
Retail: 7.54%
Consumer: 23.5%
Benchmark KPIs for GHG
Benchmark KPIs for GHG
• Life Cycle Analysis of Alternative Pork
Management Practice
–
–
–
–
Anesthesia during castration or tail docking
Immuno-Castration Methods
Removal of Ractopamine as a feed additive
Removal of Antimicrobials to prevent disease and
promote growth
– Pen Gestation Housing
Benchmark KPIs for GHG
Benchmark KPIs for Water
Benchmark KPIs for Water
• A Life Cycle Analysis of Water Use in U.S. Pork
Production
– 19-144 gal water per pound boneless pork
– 75% from feed irrigation
– 20% for drinking water
Benchmark KPIs for Water
Benchmark KPIs for Water
Benchmark KPIs for Water
Sustainability Framework
1. Define
A. Define Sustainability for the Enterprise
B. Define Key Performance Indicators
C. Select Metrics for KPIs
2. Measure
A. Benchmark KPI Metrics
B. Set Goals for Each KPI
C. Develop Strategy to Meet Goals
3. Implement
A. Implement the Strategy
B. Measure, Assess and Report Results
C. Adapt Strategy to Improve Outcomes
53
Framework of Goals
Aspirational
Long
Strategic
Tactical
Planning Horizon
Vision
Management
Operational
Short
Breadth of Goal