China’s food security challenge and
the implications for business
China’s Urbanization
 China's urban population will expand from 572 million in 2005 to 926 million in
2025 and hit the one billion mark by 2030;
 More than 350 million people will add to its urban population by 2025, more
than 240 million will be migrants in China;
 Over the next two decades, migration will play a much larger role, accounting for
about 70 percent of the new urban residents;
Rapid Urbanization
 More New Megacities
Guangzhou Baiyun new town
 City Renewal
 Enhanced Intercity
Connection
China High Speed Rail Map
Growing Middle Class
Year 2010
Year 2020
Disposable income of
urban residents
Disposable income of
urban residents
Population
Annual disposable income of
urban residents
（Million）
Total
109M
（US$: 000）
Population
（Million）
1
Upper class
>30
12
13
Lower upper class
15~30
53
34
Middle class
9~15
69
61
Emerging Middle Class 6~9
66
57
Low income class
4~6
39
36
Poorest class
<4
23
202
262
Total
200M
Availability of Arable Land
• The current arable land per capita in China is about 0.08 hectares,
which is only about 40 percent of the global average, one-seventh the
United States, and a quarter of the Brazil level.
• The level of arable land per capita in 2008 is about half of that in 1961
Arable Land Comparison (hectares per person)
1961
1970
1980
1990
2000
2008
2008
vs.
1961
World
0.34
0.30
0.25
0.22
0.23
0.21
61%
European Union
0.31
0.28
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.22
69%
United States
0.98
0.92
0.83
0.74
0.62
0.60
61%
Brazil
0.30
0.36
0.37
0.34
0.33
0.32
108%
India
0.35
0.29
0.24
0.19
0.16
0.14
40%
China
0.16
0.12
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.08
52%
Country
Name
Source: The World Bank
China’s Food Supply & Demand
 Less rural workforce
China
Urbani
zation
 Wealth
creation
 Dietary
upgrade
 Arable land shrinkage
 Environment pollution
Increase
demand on
staple and
non-staple
food
Supply
&
Demand
Gap
Import/FEX
Price volatility
& Inflation
Self-sufficient
of food is not
sustainable
China
Urbani
zation
Combined with
 Water shortage
 Soil erosion
 Climate change
Thank You!