Assessment of black carbon in the Arctic: new emission
inventory of Russia, model evaluation and implications
Kan Huang1, Joshua S. Fu1,2, Xinyi Dong1
1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Tennessee,
Knoxville, Tennessee, USA
2
UTK-ORNL Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Graduate Education, Energy
Science and Engineering, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA
2013 CMAS Meeting
October 29, 2013
Motivations
Arctic black carbon simulation problems:
Large diversity of modeling BC from different models (Shindell et al., 2008)
Strong underestimation of BC in Arctic (Shindell et al., 2008; Koch et al., 2009)
Improper wet scavenging parameterizations (Bourgeois et al., 2011)
US NEI
Canada NEI
Shindell et al., 2008
EMEP
Motivations
On December 17, 2009, in Copenhagen, the US Government committed to
international cooperation to reduce black carbon (BC) emissions in and around
the Arctic.
Arctic Black Carbon (BC) Initiative: A project funded by U.S. DOE
 Activity #1:
Arctic BC Identification: Receptor modeling: Potential Source Contribution
Function (PSCF) (ORNL)
 Activity #2:
Establish BC Emissions Inventory of Russia (base year : 2010): Improve
estimates of BC emissions in Russia and verification by model simulation (UTK)
Tasks: BC emissions from gas flaring, transportation, residential, power plants and Industries
 Activity #3:
Demonstration of BC Emissions Reduction Technologies:
Demonstrate the best-available emissions reduction technologies for a subset
of the identified sources in Russia. (ORNL)
I. Gas flaring: a missing BC source
Russia possess the largest natural
gas reserves of 24% in the world as
of 2009. (Dmitry Volkov, 2008)
Annual gas flare volume in the
global scale and in Russia
Also, the top 1 gas flaring country
(Elvidge et al., 2009)
Estimation of gas flaring EF and emission in Russia
No field measurement available
Composition of the associated gas in Russia
Only laboratory test (McEwen and Johnson, 2012)
45 MJ/m3
1.62
g/m3
64.14
MJ/m3
BCflaring = Volume * SootEF
Volume : Gas flaring volume of Russia in 2010 was 35.6 BCM (billion cubic meters)
The BC emission from Russia’s gas flaring in 2010 is estimated to be 57.6 Gg.
Spatial distribution of gas flaring BC emission
Gas flare areas (red polygon)
retrieved from satellite (U.S. Air
Force Defense Meteorological
Satellite Program (DMSP)
Operational Linescan System
(OLS))
Spatial allocation proxy
(contour) nighttime lights
product
Data source: NOAA NGDC
Spatial distribution of gas
flaring BC emission (0.1*0.1
degree)
Major gas flaring regions:
Yamal-Nenets
Khanty-Mansiysk
II. Transportation BC emission
Public 12%
bus 19%
28%
Private
13%
bus
16%
30%
18%
10%
47%
25%
41%
41%
Euro 0
Cars
Euro 1
Euro 2
Euro 3+
< 3.5t
3.5 - 8t
11% 8%
30%
51%
2%2%
9%
8 - 16t 2%3%
9%
87%
86%
Trucks
> 16t
Share of
different
Euro
vehicles
7%11%
21%
61%
II. Transportation BC emission
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Urban
Intercity
Highways
Euro
0
Euro
1
Euro
2
Euro
3
Euro
0
Euro
1
Euro
2
Euro
3
Euro
0
Euro
1
Euro
2
Euro
3
Euro
0
Euro
1
Euro
2
Euro
3
Euro
0
Euro
1
Euro
2
Euro
3
PM EF (g/km)
PM emission factors (g/km) of various vehicle types dependent on different Euro
standards (Euro 0 – Euro 3) and driving conditions (urban, intercity and highways)
Cars
Small
Medium
Large
Extra large
Buses
1.4
1.0
Urban
0.8
intercity
0.6
highways
0.4
0.2
0.0
Euro
0
Euro
1
Euro
2
Euro
3
Euro
0
Euro
1
Euro
2
Euro
3
Euro
0
Euro
1
Euro
2
Euro
3
Euro
0
Euro
1
Euro
2
Euro
3
Euro
0
Euro
1
Euro
2
Euro
3
PM EF (g/km)
1.2
Light Trucks and
buses (< 3.5 tons
<7.5 tons
7.5-16 tons
16-32 tons
>32 tons
Heavy duty trucks
Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation Research Institute, 2008
II. Transportation BC emission
0.180
0.160
0.140
0.120
0.100
0.080
0.060
0.040
0.020
0.000
Warm
season
Euro 0
Cars
Total = 52.9 Gg
2%
9% 5% 1% 11%
16%
Lightduty
Trucks (> 3.5 tons)
Euro 0
Very
large
Large
Medium
Small
Large
Medium
Small
> 32 t
16 - 32 t
7.5 - 16 t
Euro 1 +
Euro 1 +
Buses (> 3.5 tons)
Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation Research Institute, 2008
Public buses
Private
buses
Cars
Trucks
56%
< 7.5 t
16 - 32 t
7.5 - 16 t
< 7.5 t
Euro 1 +
Euro 0
Euro 1 +
Cold
season
Euro 0
Soot EF (g/min)
Soot emission factors (g/min) during warm-up (cold start)
Warm-up
Rail
Non-road
III. Residential BC emission
Residential BC emissions in Russia are based on fuel consumption data and EFs.
1
Total = 57.0 Gg
Coal
35%
Fuelwood
61%
Fuelwood
Coal
Industrial waste
Kerosene
Lignite brown coal
Lignite-brown coal briquettes
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
Natural gas (including LNG)
Peat (for fuel use)
Refinery gas
Residual fuel oil
Other petroleum products
Coke-oven coke
Gas-diesel oils
2
3
National BC -> Federal District level
based on residential firewood
consumption from Russia’s FSSS
(Federal State Statistics Service)
District BC -> grid cell
population density within each
district (ORNL’s LandScan dataset)
IV. Power plants & V. Industrial BC emission
BC emissions from power plants and industries in Russia are based on PM
(particulate matter) data from Russian official figures and scaling factors
(BC/PM2.5 ratio) from the U.S. EPA SPECIATE database.
Total = 12.1 Gg
National BC -> grid level
CARMA (Carbon Monitoring for
Action): power plant location, energy
capacity and CO2 emission.
Total = 12.3 Gg
National BC -> Provincial level
based on provincial industrial
revenues from Russia’s FSSS
(Federal State Statistics Service)
Provincial BC -> grid cell
population density within each
district (ORNL’s LandScan dataset)
Sectoral contributions to Russian anthropogenic BC emissions
Russia total BC = 191.8 Gg
6%
111 Gg
Gas flaring
BC emission
prepared for
ARCTAS
30%
Power plants
30%
6%
28%
Transportation
Residential
Industry
Wang et al ., 2011
Surface BC (or absorption coefficient) observation sites in the Arctic
Alert
Barrow
Birkenes
Zeppelin
Pallas
Tiksi
GEOS-Chem Simulation vs. Observations
40%
25%
40%
100%
Impact from increased BC emission
Surface BC from the difference between simulation with new emission and the base case
Summer
Spring
Autumn
Winter
The impact of the new emission on the increased surface BC concentration
could reach over 2 μg/m3 in Russia and over 20 ng/m3 over the Arctic Circle.