Assessment of black carbon in the Arctic: new emission inventory of Russia, model evaluation and implications Kan Huang1, Joshua S. Fu1,2, Xinyi Dong1 1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA 2 UTK-ORNL Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Graduate Education, Energy Science and Engineering, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA 2013 CMAS Meeting October 29, 2013 Motivations Arctic black carbon simulation problems: Large diversity of modeling BC from different models (Shindell et al., 2008) Strong underestimation of BC in Arctic (Shindell et al., 2008; Koch et al., 2009) Improper wet scavenging parameterizations (Bourgeois et al., 2011) US NEI Canada NEI Shindell et al., 2008 EMEP Motivations On December 17, 2009, in Copenhagen, the US Government committed to international cooperation to reduce black carbon (BC) emissions in and around the Arctic. Arctic Black Carbon (BC) Initiative: A project funded by U.S. DOE Activity #1: Arctic BC Identification: Receptor modeling: Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) (ORNL) Activity #2: Establish BC Emissions Inventory of Russia (base year : 2010): Improve estimates of BC emissions in Russia and verification by model simulation (UTK) Tasks: BC emissions from gas flaring, transportation, residential, power plants and Industries Activity #3: Demonstration of BC Emissions Reduction Technologies: Demonstrate the best-available emissions reduction technologies for a subset of the identified sources in Russia. (ORNL) I. Gas flaring: a missing BC source Russia possess the largest natural gas reserves of 24% in the world as of 2009. (Dmitry Volkov, 2008) Annual gas flare volume in the global scale and in Russia Also, the top 1 gas flaring country (Elvidge et al., 2009) Estimation of gas flaring EF and emission in Russia No field measurement available Composition of the associated gas in Russia Only laboratory test (McEwen and Johnson, 2012) 45 MJ/m3 1.62 g/m3 64.14 MJ/m3 BCflaring = Volume * SootEF Volume : Gas flaring volume of Russia in 2010 was 35.6 BCM (billion cubic meters) The BC emission from Russia’s gas flaring in 2010 is estimated to be 57.6 Gg. Spatial distribution of gas flaring BC emission Gas flare areas (red polygon) retrieved from satellite (U.S. Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS)) Spatial allocation proxy (contour) nighttime lights product Data source: NOAA NGDC Spatial distribution of gas flaring BC emission (0.1*0.1 degree) Major gas flaring regions: Yamal-Nenets Khanty-Mansiysk II. Transportation BC emission Public 12% bus 19% 28% Private 13% bus 16% 30% 18% 10% 47% 25% 41% 41% Euro 0 Cars Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3+ < 3.5t 3.5 - 8t 11% 8% 30% 51% 2%2% 9% 8 - 16t 2%3% 9% 87% 86% Trucks > 16t Share of different Euro vehicles 7%11% 21% 61% II. Transportation BC emission 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Urban Intercity Highways Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 PM EF (g/km) PM emission factors (g/km) of various vehicle types dependent on different Euro standards (Euro 0 – Euro 3) and driving conditions (urban, intercity and highways) Cars Small Medium Large Extra large Buses 1.4 1.0 Urban 0.8 intercity 0.6 highways 0.4 0.2 0.0 Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 PM EF (g/km) 1.2 Light Trucks and buses (< 3.5 tons <7.5 tons 7.5-16 tons 16-32 tons >32 tons Heavy duty trucks Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation Research Institute, 2008 II. Transportation BC emission 0.180 0.160 0.140 0.120 0.100 0.080 0.060 0.040 0.020 0.000 Warm season Euro 0 Cars Total = 52.9 Gg 2% 9% 5% 1% 11% 16% Lightduty Trucks (> 3.5 tons) Euro 0 Very large Large Medium Small Large Medium Small > 32 t 16 - 32 t 7.5 - 16 t Euro 1 + Euro 1 + Buses (> 3.5 tons) Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation Research Institute, 2008 Public buses Private buses Cars Trucks 56% < 7.5 t 16 - 32 t 7.5 - 16 t < 7.5 t Euro 1 + Euro 0 Euro 1 + Cold season Euro 0 Soot EF (g/min) Soot emission factors (g/min) during warm-up (cold start) Warm-up Rail Non-road III. Residential BC emission Residential BC emissions in Russia are based on fuel consumption data and EFs. 1 Total = 57.0 Gg Coal 35% Fuelwood 61% Fuelwood Coal Industrial waste Kerosene Lignite brown coal Lignite-brown coal briquettes Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) Natural gas (including LNG) Peat (for fuel use) Refinery gas Residual fuel oil Other petroleum products Coke-oven coke Gas-diesel oils 2 3 National BC -> Federal District level based on residential firewood consumption from Russia’s FSSS (Federal State Statistics Service) District BC -> grid cell population density within each district (ORNL’s LandScan dataset) IV. Power plants & V. Industrial BC emission BC emissions from power plants and industries in Russia are based on PM (particulate matter) data from Russian official figures and scaling factors (BC/PM2.5 ratio) from the U.S. EPA SPECIATE database. Total = 12.1 Gg National BC -> grid level CARMA (Carbon Monitoring for Action): power plant location, energy capacity and CO2 emission. Total = 12.3 Gg National BC -> Provincial level based on provincial industrial revenues from Russia’s FSSS (Federal State Statistics Service) Provincial BC -> grid cell population density within each district (ORNL’s LandScan dataset) Sectoral contributions to Russian anthropogenic BC emissions Russia total BC = 191.8 Gg 6% 111 Gg Gas flaring BC emission prepared for ARCTAS 30% Power plants 30% 6% 28% Transportation Residential Industry Wang et al ., 2011 Surface BC (or absorption coefficient) observation sites in the Arctic Alert Barrow Birkenes Zeppelin Pallas Tiksi GEOS-Chem Simulation vs. Observations 40% 25% 40% 100% Impact from increased BC emission Surface BC from the difference between simulation with new emission and the base case Summer Spring Autumn Winter The impact of the new emission on the increased surface BC concentration could reach over 2 μg/m3 in Russia and over 20 ng/m3 over the Arctic Circle.