The Challenges to Rural
Development Policy in the New
Independent States (NIS)
Eugenia Serova
FAO Investment Centre
Diversity of rural areas in CIS
suburban
 rural with intensive agricultural
production
 rural with agricultural and nonagricultural activities
 remote rural and marginal

Kazakhstan: grouping of rural
settlements: criteria
• economic potential
• soil fertility – 12 points
• distance to markets – 9 points
• entrepreneurial activity – 5
•
•
•
•
•
points
development of food
processing - 5 points
ag. machinery provision - 8
points
use of irrigation systems – 07 points
arable land p.c.- 7 points
pastures p.c.-7 points
• infrastructure
•
•
•
•
•
water supply – 7
roads – 7 points
gas supply – 3 points
electricity supply – 7 points
communications – 6 points
• social development
•
•
•
•
•
education- 3 points
healthcare- 3 points
housing – 23 points
employment – 1 point
poverty – 1 point
• environment
• radiation
• soil salinity
• water quality
Kazakhstan: grouping of rural
settlements: clusters




Highly developed >70 p
Moderately developed 35-69 p
Underdeveloped 1-34 p
With extremely bad
environment 0




1062 (14%)
5664 (74%)
776 (10%)
22 (0,3%)
in 136 (1.7%) settlements there is no population
Challenges
Decreasing labour productivity
 Impending reduce in ag.
employment
 Worsening of human capital in
rural area

Labour Productivity
200
Change in ALP index (%)
150
Centra l Europe
100
Ba lka n
Ba ltics
Europea n CIS
50
Tra nsca uca sia
Centra l Asia
0
-50
1990
1992
1994
Swinnen, Johan, EastAgri
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Impending reduce in ag.
employment
Change in agricultural emplyment index (%)
60
40
20
Central Europe
0
Balkan
Baltics
-20
European CIS
Transcaucasia
Central Asia
-40
-60
-80
1990
1992
1994
Swinnen, Johan, EastAgri
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Impending reduce in ag.
employment
Change in Agricultural Employment in 1987-2003 (times) and
Share of Individual Farms in Gross Agricultural Output (%)
3
Chaтge in ag. employment
Taj
Kyr
Arm
2,5
Aze
Tur
2
1,5
Uzb
Kaz
Ucr
1
Rus
Ge
o
Mol
0,5
Bel
0
40
50
60
70
80
Share of ind.farms in GAO
Serova, Eu. , 2006
90
100
Impending reduce in ag.
employment
Change in Labour Productivity and Share of
Individual Farms in Gross Agricultural Output, %
100
Rus
90
Tur
80
70
Ukr
Mol
60
,,
50
Arm
Kaz
Geo
40
Kyr
Aze
30
60
65
Serova, Eu. , 2006
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Impending reduce in ag.
employment
Share of average ag. wage in total average wage in economy, %
12 0 .0
10 0 .0
A z e rb a ijan
8 0 .0
A rm en ia
B ela rus
G e o rgia
K az a k h s ta n
6 0 .0
K y rgy z s ta n
M o ld ova
R us s ia
4 0 .0
Tajik is t an
Turk m e nis tan
U z b e k is atn
2 0 .0
U k raine
CIS STAT 2009
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
19
84
82
19
19
80
0 .0
Worsening of human capital
in rural area
Russia: Life expectancy of rural and urban population, years
70
Total
69
Urban
68
Rural
67
66
65
64
63
19801981
1990
Rosstat, 2009
1995
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Policy challenges
Poverty
Low
attractiveness for
investors
Undervelopment
of infrastructure
Quality of human
capital
Low incomes
Low taxes
Solution
Sound national rural policy targeted
at:
establishment of non-agricultural
sources of income in rural areas
 creation of appropriate living
standards facilitating attraction of
effective supply of labour for rural
economy

Policy existed

Russia


Ukraine


Federal program Social development of rural areas
till 2012
State target program on development of Ukrainian
rural areas till 2015
Kazakhstan

State program on development of rural territories in
2004-2010