KEY TRENDS, DRIVERS AND IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications of GIS The University of Adelaide Dinner Presentation to Institute of Public Administration Australia National Roundtable Series Meeting on Sustainable Population Strategy – Public Policy and Implementation Challenges Canberra th 11 April 2011 Outline of Presentation • Introduction • Myths and Population Dynamics • Global Trends and Drivers • Australian Population Issues • Developing a Way Forward • Conclusion Exploding Myths About Population • Population is dynamic, always changing, but the change is gradual which means it often escapes the attention of policy makers • Population is influenced by economic changes but not purely a function of them • Some population change is structural – inevitable and predictable – provides some certainties in looking to the future • Population is amenable to policy intervention Global Population Situation • Current global population 6,892 million • Current annual increase rate 1.2% compared to 2.1% in 1969 • World Total Fertility Rate 4.8 in 1965-70, 2.5 in 2010 • World Life Expectancy at Birth 56 in 1965-70, 69 in 2010 • Percent in MDCs, 32.1 in 1950, 17.9 in 2010 and 13.9 in 2050 • Percent Urban, 28.8 in 1950, 50.5 in 2010 • Projected Global Population in 2050 – 9,149 million World Population: Time to Add Successive Billions in World Population, 1800 to 2050 Source: United Nations 1995; United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database Some Key Demographic Elements in Future Global Population Change • • • • • Ageing The youth bulge China and India The Migration and Development Debate Climate Change “Over the next couple of decades nothing will impact OECD economies more profoundly than demographic trends and, chief among them, ageing” Jean-Philippe Cotis Chief Economist, OECD March 2005 Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency Rates Source: World Bank, 2006 Structural Ageing: MDCs: Change by Age: 2010 – 2020; 2030 Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database 2010-2020 (1,268 m) 2010-2030 (1,282 m) 15,000 5,000 -5,000 -15,000 Age 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 -25,000 0-4 Change in Number 25,000 Structural Ageing: LDCs: Change by Age: 2010 – 2020; 2030 Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database 140,000 2010-2020 (6,406 m) 2010-2030 (7,027 m) 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 -20,000 Age 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 -40,000 0-4 Change in Number 160,000 Demographic Impacts of Fertility Decline • Ageing • The youth bulge and the demographic dividend The Middle East Youth Bulge • 1970-2007, 80% of outbreaks of violence in countries where 60% or more aged under 30 • 60% of region’s population aged under 30 • 20% of Egyptians aged 15-24 • Exacerbated in urban areas Source: Gosh, B. 2011, Rage, Rap and Revolution, Time, February 28, p.25 The Youth Bulge (Westley and Cho, 2002, 57) “…is the result of a transition from high to low fertility about 15 years earlier. The youth bulge consists of large numbers of young adolescents and young adults who were born when fertility was high followed by declining numbers of children born after fertility declined” World Regions: Share of Population in Working Ages, Actual, 1950-2005 and Projected, 2010-2050 Source: United Nations 2007 0.70 0.68 0.64 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.52 Year Africa Asia Europe Latin America and Caribbean North America Oceania 2050 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 0.50 1950 Share of Population 0.66 Impacts of the Youth Bulge • The demographic dividend impact on the economy • Accounts for a fifth of China’s economic growth in 1990s (Mason, 2004) • Potential for political unrest (Fuller and Hoch, 1998) • Potential for increased population mobility The “demographic dividend” delivered through 3 mechanisms… • Labour supply – the numbers available to work are larger. Also women are more likely to enter the workforce as family size decreases, hence, since the Asian youth bulge is associated with low fertility, female workforce participation is likely to be high while the young and the old consume more than they produce. • Savings – younger working age people tend to have a higher level of output and also a higher level of savings. • Human capital investments – with smaller numbers of children and cultural changes there will be greater investment in education, health, etc. Hence, primary and secondary enrolment ratios are increased. Impacts of Current Youth Bulge Exacerbated by … • Disproportionate concentration in cities • First generation with universal education • First generation growing up with the internet and global communications The Demographic Giants: India and China Source: United Nations 2009 and 2010 Demographic Variable India China Population 2010 ('000) 1,214,464 1,354,146 Population 2030 ('000) 1,484,598 1,462,468 Population 2050 ('000) 1,613,800 1,417,045 Total Fertility Rate 2005-10 2.76 1.77 Life Expectancy at Birth 2005-10 63.5 73 30 47 106.8 107.9 % Aged Less than 15 years, 2010 30.8 19.9 % Aged 65 year and over, 2010 4.9 8.2 % Urban 2010 Sex Ratio, 2010 China and India: Age and Sex Structure of the Population, 2010 Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database China (shaded) and India Population Age 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Males 80,000 60,000 Females 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 Number (000s) 40,000 60,000 80,000 Key Demographic Issues • • • • Ageing – especially China Workforce challenges Gender imbalance International migration – strong policy intervention • Internal population distribution • Climate change International Migration and Development • Brain drain issues • Remittances • Diaspora impacts – new significance • Role of policy Remittances and Capital Flows to Developing Economies Source: World Bank, 2010 NATIONAL DIASPORAS IN RELATION TO RESIDENT NATIONAL POPULATIONS Source: US Census Bureau, 2002a and b; Southern Cross, 2002; Bedford, 2001; Ministry of External Affairs, India, http://indiandiaspora.nic.in; Naseem, 1998; Sahoo, 2002; Iguchi, 2004; Gutièrrez, 1999; Philippines Overseas Employment Service; Asian Migration News, 15-31 January 2006; OECD database on immigrants and expatriates; Luconi 2006; Nguyen Anh 2005; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/korean_diaspora USA: 8.7 million – 2.7 percent of national population Australia: 900,000 – 4.3 percent of national population New Zealand: 850,000 – 21.9 percent of national population Philippines: 7.5 million – 9.0 percent of national population India: 20 million – 1.9 percent of national population Pakistan: 4 million – 2.8 percent of national population China: 30 to 40 million – 2.9 percent of national population Japan: 873,641 – 0.7 percent of national population South Korea: 6.4 million – 13.2 percent of national population Vietnam: 2.6 million – 3.2 percent of national population Mexico: 19 million* – 19 percent of national population Singapore: 100-150,000 – 3.5 percent of national population Cook Islands: 52,600 – 34 percent of national population Niue: 5,884 – 294.2 percent of national population Tokelau: 2,019 – 138.5 percent of national population Samoa: 78,253 – 44.5 percent of national population Fiji: 128,284 – 15.8 percent of national population Italy: 29 million – 49.4 percent of national population * Mexican diaspora in the U.S. Role of Policy • Origins - remittances - engagement of diaspora - return • Destination - A development friendly immigration policy? Climate Change and Population • Coincidence of demographic and climate change hotspots • Linkages with migration Population and Climate Change Hotspots Source: www.populationaction.org/Publications Hotspots of Climate Change Impact Within the Asia Pacific • Coastal areas are vulnerable to inundation and the effect of storm surges associated with sea level rise (McGranahan et al., 2007). • River valleys and deltas (Ericson et al., 2006) will be influenced by increased riparian flooding. • Low lying island states, especially atolls, are at risk from the effects of sea level rise, surface warming and extreme weather events (Barnett and Adger, 2003). • Semi-arid and low humidity areas where drought and availability of water are already problematic are likely to experience an exacerbation of those water shortage problems. • Some other areas likely to be impacted by extreme weather events. Asian Megacities at Risk Source: ADB 2009, 17 Differences in Population in the LECZ by Global Region, 2000 Source: McGranahan et al., 2007 Contemporary Dynamics of Australian Population • • • • Growth – Mortality, Fertility and Migration Composition Distribution Projections Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa) Source: ESCAP 2009; Population Reference Bureau 2009 and 2010; ABS 2010 Country/Region Year Rate Per Annum World 2009-10 1.2 LDCs (excl. China) 2009-10 1.7 MDCs 2009-10 0.4 Europe and the New Independent States 2009-10 0.1 North America 2009-10 0.9 ESCAP Region 2008-09 1.0 Indonesia 2008-09 1.1 Australia 2009-10 1.7 Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947 to 2010 Source: ABS 1996 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 200,000 Net Migration 150,000 100,000 Natural Increase 50,000 Year 2010 2007 2004 2001 1998 1995 1992 1989 1986 1983 1980 1977 1974 1971 1968 1965 1962 1959 1956 1953 1950 0 1947 Persons 250,000 Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2009 Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins Expectation of Life at Birth Males Females 1947 66.1 70.6 2009 79.3 83.9 Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, 1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2009 Source: ABS Year Males Females 1901-1910 21.2 23.7 1970-1972 23.0 28.3 2009 31.7 35.3 Fertility Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2009 Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues Australia: Permanent and Temporary Components of Net Overseas Migration, 1983-2010 Source: DIMIA Australian Immigration: Consolidated Statistics, DIAC Immigration Update and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues 300,000 200,000 150,000 Temporary Permanent 100,000 50,000 0 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Persons 250,000 Year Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2009 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data 100 90 80 Females Males 70 60 Baby Boomers Age 50 40 First echo 30 20 10 0 200,000 Second echo? 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Persons 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 Baby Boomers 2006 • 27.5% of Australian Population • 41.8% of Australian Workforce A Distinct Population Distribution • 87% living in urban areas • 64% living in capital cities • 81% living 50 km from coast Changing Population Distribution Shifts in the Australian Proportion Centroid, 1861-2010 Source: Australian Censuses, ABS 2003, 2004, 2011 Trend in Annual Total Rainfall 1960 – 2009 (mm/10years) Source: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2010 Australia: Rainfall and Population in 2006 Australian rainfall 2006 Below average Average Above average % of Population Percent of 2006 2006 population Growth rate Land Area 89.6 7.23 3.17 17,749,462 1,432,090 628,865 0.98 0.70 -1.57 38 18 44 Projecting the Population • Different to prediction • ABS does every 3 years • Assumptions regarding mortality, fertility and migration ABS Projections of the Population of Australia, 2005 and 2008 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008 2006 Actual 2007 Actual 2021 Projected 2051 Projected Australia ABS 2005 ABS 2008 Series B 20.7 20.7 21.0 21.0 23.9 25.6 28.0 34.2 Structural Ageing: Australia: Change by Age: 2006 – 2021; 2031 (Series B) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Age 85+ 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2006-2021 (25.6 m) 2006-2031 (28.8 m) 0 Percentage Change Source: ABS 2008 Projections Australia’s Population Dilemma • On the one hand there is a need to grow the population because - A replacement task – 42% of the present workforce are baby boomers - Net increases in demand for labour • On the other there are substantial environmental constraints which will be exacerbated by climate change Australia: Population by Selected Ages, 2010 Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population Data Age 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Persons as at 30th June 2010 272,245 270,528 271,447 276,570 278,695 278,877 279,518 282,344 284,344 291,967 293,191 297,283 Age 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 Persons as at 30th June 2010 284,737 275,369 268,602 267,590 258,906 255,546 252,793 244,204 246,409 254,966 214,165 204,634 Difference 12,492 4,841 - 2,845 - 8,980 - 19,789 - 23,331 - 26,725 - 38,140 - 37,935 - 37,001 - 79,026 - 92,649 Addressing Ageing • There are no silver bullets – no single policy intervention will counteract the effects of ageing • Introduction of a number of strategies involving Productivity, Participation and Population is essential • To be most effective they need to be introduced well before the ageing “crunch”. Planning is crucial. • Demographically Australia is better placed than any OECD country to effectively cope with ageing but it needs to begin appropriate policy intervention now Rethinking Australia’s Settlement System • Most Australians will continue to live in capital cities and developing more sustainable large metropolitan areas is an important national priority • However we must also consider to what extent our settlement system is the most efficient for the Twenty First Century and do the science to see whether modification of the settlement system would be advisable and possible Issues to be Considered • Several of fastest developing sectors of the economy have a strong non-metropolitan location (mining and tourism) • Agglomeration economics do not apply for all economic activity • There is already net outmigration of the Australian-born from capital cities like Sydney Issues to be Considered (cont) • Increased international migration to non-metropolitan areas • Environmental constraints of southeastern Australia • The impact of baby boom retirement Sydney Statistical Division: Net Internal and International Migration, 1971 to 2006 Source: NSW Department of Planning 80,000 60,000 Overseas migration 40,000 Number 20,000 0 -20,000 -40,000 Internal migration Year 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 -60,000 Australia: 457 Migrants and Settler Arrivals by Statistical Division, 2009-10 Source: DIAC What is Needed? • Currently there is an unproductive debate between “pro growth” and “stop growth” lobbies • There must be trade offs and compromises which facilitate growth with sustainability, informed by the best information and knowledge available across all relevant disciplines • Regardless, there will be substantial continued population growth over the next two decades but we need to carefully consider (a) How much growth and not adopt unsubstantiated aspirational population targets? (b) Where is that growth best located? Conclusion • Australia is demographically better placed than most OECD countries to cope with economic, demographic and environmental changes over the next two decades • However Australia lacks a population policy which is informed not only by economic imperatives but also environmental and social inclusion concerns • Need for development of a strategy which is based on the best science and is inclusive of the aspirations of all Australians