The Renewable Energy Solution
Houston Renewable
Energy Group
• The Consumer Voice for
Renewable Energy
• Activities
–
–
–
–
–
www.txses.org/hreg
HREG
written by Chris Boyer 2006
Meet Quarterly
Internet Yahoo Chat Group
Annual Houston Solar Tour
Earth Day Booths
Educate Houston
• Non-profit, local section of
the Texas Solar Energy
Society (TXSES)
1
HREG
160
6.E+08
140
5.E+08
120
4.E+08
100
80
3.E+08
60
Energy Consumption
EIA Prediction
PEW Low Case
PEW High Case
Population
40
20
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
Population
Total US Energy Consumption (Quads/yr)
US Energy Demand Growing
2.E+08
1.E+08
0.E+00
2050
2
HREG
300
25000
250
20000
200
15000
150
10000
100
5000
50
0
1850
1900
Consumption - Data
Total Reserves
1950
2000
Consumption - Model
Unknown Reserves
2050
Oil Reserves (Quad Btu)
1. Rising cost of
fossil fuel
extraction
2. Trade deficit
3. War over finite
resources
4. Pollution and
climate change
5. Threat of nuclear
proliferation and
waste disposal
World Annual Oil Consumption
(Quad Btu/yr)
The Energy Problem
0
2100
Predicted
3
The Renewables Solution
•
•
•
•
•
HREG
Direct Solar
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Geothermal
•
•
•
•
•
Its Plentiful
Its Everywhere
It lasts “forever”
Its Healthy
Its Safe
4
All the energy we use could
be supplied by Renewables!
HREG
5
Solar Energy
80,000 Terawatts of Solar Power fall on the Earth
constantly, compared to 14.5 Terawatts current
used for human power.
• Solar Electricity – Photovolatics (PV)
• Solar Thermal Heating
– Hot water – residential and commercial
– Utility Steam & Electricity
– Cooking
• Solar Building Design
– Shade & venting
– Solar heating
HREG
6
Solar Thermal
HREG
7
Solar Thermal: Hot Water
• Hot Water roof systems
subsidize hot water.
• $500 to $6,000 for system
• Last ~20 years
• 1 to 2 ft2 of panel for each
gallon used per day.
• 4 yr payback
• If hot water use does not
match solar availability,
economics is not so
attractive.
HREG
Panels
Controller
Pump
Tank
8
Solar Thermal: Utility Electricity
$1million/MWp Capital Investment
20-60% Capacity Factor (100% with N.G. Hybrid)
5000 acres for a 1 GW plant
HREG
9
Solar Photovoltaic
HREG
10
Solar PV Integrated into Structures
HREG
11
Solar PV: Grid Connected
• $6000 to $10,000 per
kWp Power Installed
– 50% Modules
– 25% Inverter
– 25% Installation
• $1 to $0.18/kWh
– Sun Hours/day
– Interest Rate
– Incentives
• 1 kW ~ 100 ft2 @ noon
HREG
Electric grid
PV array
Voltage
(DC)
Voltage
(AC)
Inverter
Goal is $3000/kWp installed,
or ~$0.10/kWh by 2025
12
Advancing Solar PV Technology
New Materials
• Silicon
–
–
–
–
–
•
•
•
•
•
HREG
Crystalline
Polycrystalline
Amorphous
Ribbon
Nanocrystalline
CdTe
GaAs
CIS/CIGS
Dye-Sensitized
Organic
New Structures
•
•
•
•
•
Wafer P-N Junction
Thin Film P-N Junction
Multi-Junction
Quantum Dots
Photoelectrochemical
Related Technologies
-digital camera
-LEDs
-Solid state lasers
13
P-N Junction Solar Cell Structure
HREG
14
Photochemical Cell Structure
Structure for high-efficiency (50%) organic PV cell based
on a nanostructured substrate onto which thin layers of
molecular multi-junctions are grown and anchored onto the
nanostructure surface. The red circle denotes an electron
acceptor; the blue square, an electron donor; and the
yellow circle, a metal nanoparticle.
HREG
15
PV cost as a function of Efficiency
HREG
16
Improvements in Cell Efficiency
HREG
17
Solar PV: What & Where
MW/yr
0
Si Single Crystal
Si Polycrystal
Si Ribbon
Si Amorphous
Si Amor/Crystal
CdTe
CIS
200
Comm. & Signal
1000
1200
53
71.3
122
32
5
200
75
400
MW/yr
600
800
1000
1200
2000
2005
95
195
Grid Connected
HREG
800
991
Off-Grid Res&Com
Central Utility
600
486
0
Consumer Products
400
1100
60
18
Solar PV: Who
Cell Production, MW/yr in 2005
0
100
200
300
400
500
Sharp (J)
(Ever-Q)
Q-Cells(E)
Kyocera (J)
Sanyo (J)
Mitsubishi (J)
Schott Solar (E)
BP Solar (US,E)
SunTech (Ch)
Motech (Tw)
Shell Solar (US,E)
Isofoton (E)
Deutsche Cell (E)
E-ton (Tw)
Photowatt (E)
Sunpower (Ph)
Others (<20 MW)
HREG
19
Learning Curve for PV Production
HREG
20
Potential US Solar PV Growth
HREG
Prediction based on 20 to 25% annual growth.
Note: Capacity factor is 0.2
1000
100
Cell Production, GW/yr
Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW)
10000
10
1
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2000
0.1
2000
2010
2020
2030
Actual World
Growth 44%
2001
2002
2040
2003
2004
2005
2050
21
Wind Energy
• 60 GW Installed in the
world by 2005
• Growing 20%/yr worldwide
• $1million/MW Cost
• Capacity factor 0.47
• Clean; no water needed
• Dual Land Use
• 1000 GW possible in the US
• Each tower is 1 to 3 MW.
HREG
22
Tale of 2 GW
Nuclear
HREG
Wind
23
Too Many Wind Towers?
One coal plant equals about
1500 Wind towers. Over a
Million oil and gas wells
were drilled in Texas at a
cost of ~ $1 Million each.
The same as the price of a
wind tower.
A Million Wind Towers
would equal over 600 coal
fired plants. There are ~50
coal plants in Texas
HREG
24
Wind: Who & Where
Share of Cumulative Installations
Market Share
Company 0
10
20
17
Gamesa
15
Enercon
11
GE Wind
6
Siemens
4
Suzlon
3
Mitsubishi
2
Ecotecnia
2
Nordex
2
Others
40
34
Vestas
REPower
30
4
Country 0
10
20
40
34.7
Germany
Spain
17.2
US
14.1
Denmark
6.4
India
6.3
Italy
2.6
Netherlands
2.3
Japan
2.1
UK
1.9
China
1.6
Others
30
10.8
Data from year 2004: BTM World Market Update
HREG
25
Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity (GW)
Potential US Wind Growth
HREG
1000
100
Actual
Current Trend
10
Aggressive Growth
EIA Prediction
NREL Goal
1
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
26
Biomass Energy
• Sources:
–
–
–
–
–
Energy crops
Crop residue
Animal manure
Municipal Solid Waste
Forrest waste
• 1/2 the energy/lb of coal.
• 10 Quads/yr available in US
• Crop considerations:
– water usage
– fertilizer requirements
– soil depletion.
HREG
Corn is bad
Switchgrass is good
27
Biomass Energy Pathways
• Direct Combustion BEST!
1. Solids  Heat
2. Solids  Combined Heat & Power (CHP)
• Direct Extraction
POOR
3. Oils & fats  Esterification  Biodiesel
4. Certain plants  Solvent Extraction  Isoprenoid hydrocarbons
• Biochemical
POOR
5. Plant matter  Hydrolysis  Fermentation  Ethanol
6. Organic sludge  Anerobic digestion  Biogas  CHP or H2
• Thermochemical FAIR
7. Organic matter  Pyrolysis  biogas or bio-oil
8. Organic matter Gasification  Syngas  CHP, FT Liquids,
MeOH/DME, EtOH, or H2
HREG
28
Ethanol
HREG
100000
Million Gallons
• US produced 3.4 billion
gallons in 2005.
• 85 US Companies, most
sized at 20-60 million
gal/yr, ADM has over a
billion gal/yr capacity.
• Brazil made
4.2 billion gal in ‘05.
• China & Europe made
1 billion gal in ‘05
• Produces a fuel
compatible with
existing infrastructure
Energy Return is ~4 out : 3 in.
Solar land efficiency of ethanol is
very low at < 0.1%.
Competes for water and land use.
10000
6.5 Billion Gallons,
or 5% of Gasoline
1000
12 Billion Gallon,
land limit. ~10%
100
10
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
29
Hydro Energy
• Cheapest source of
Electricity $0.02/kWh
• 200 GW in US by 2005
• US developed about
40% of potential;
inhibited by
environmental
concerns.
• Capacity factor 0.5
Hoover Dam
Tidal
Wave
HREG
30
Hydro Production Cycles in US
Hydro Generation (TWh/yr)
350
300
250
200
El Nino cycles
150
1980
HREG
1987
1994
2001
2008
31
Geothermal Energy
• Free heat
• Environmental
concerns
• Nonsustainable –
ground cools.
The Earth’s core is hot from decay of
nuclear materials.
HREG
32
US Energy Flows 2002 (Quad)
56.2 Wasted
35.2 Used
Source: LLNL, EIA-DOE
HREG
33
The Renewable Energy Solution
US Practical Potential for RE energy by 2025 to 2050
with existing technology.
Source
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Geothermal
GWp
2000
1000
336
300
100
Cap.Fact. Quads of Work/yr
0.2
10.7
0.47
12.6
0.25 (effic.) 2.3
0.5
4.0
0.8
2.1
TOTAL 31.7
RE can cover 90% of the 35 Quads of Work used today.
Note: 1 Quad of Fossil Fuel is ~0.3 to 0.1 Quad of useful work.
1 Quad of Renewable Electricity is 0.9 Quad of useful work.
HREG
34
Other Energy “Solutions”
• Unconventional Oil
– Tar sands
– Shale Oil
• Stranded Natural Gas
• Coal
• Nuclear
Polluted water
Polluted air
Habitat destruction
Climate change
Limited Resources
Compete for water
Easy terrorist targets
Monopolized markets
Waste of capital
Expensive energy
The Future Value of Such Investments is NEGATIVE!
HREG
35
Pathway to Sustainable Energy
• Phase I Achieved! 1975-2005
– Economical Renewable Energy Solutions Realized
– Incubation of the RE industry.
• Phase II Achievable by 2025-2050
– Up to 25% of electric load can be supported by
renewables without energy storage.
– Shift transportation from oil to electric.
– Technology improvements lower RE cost.
• Phase III Achievable by 2050-2100
– Incorporate energy storage to achieve 100% R.E.
– Disruptive renewable energy inventions bring costs lower
HREG
36
Action Items – For NOW
•
•
•
•
Practice Energy Conservation
Switch to a “Green” Electric Provider.
Buy Electric Vehicles and Biofuels
Make investments in Solar and Wind
projects/ companies.
• Vote for politicians with platforms
promoting “Sustainability”
• Inform the public about the wind and solar
energy solution.
HREG
37