Thursday 11 October 2012

Prof. Joan Ogden
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Davis

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Global transportation energy use (2005)
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Current fuel/vehicle pathways (road veh.)
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Future fuel/vehicle pathways (road veh.)
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Vehicle commercialization timeline
Source: Cunningham, Gronich and Nicholas, presented at the NHA Meeting, March 2008.
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Historical data: major US transportation infrastructures time constants: 30-70 years
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UC DAVIS RESEARCH
Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS)
Single Pathway Analyses and Comparisons
Hydrogen
Fuel Cell
Vehicles
H2-ICE
Vehicles
Biofuels Electricity Fossil Fuels
Bio-ICE
Vehicles
2nd Gen
Biofuels
Battery-electric
Plug-in hybrids
Consumer Demand & Behavior
Bus. as usual
Low-carbon fuels (incl.
CCS)
Infrastructure Modeling
Vehicle Technology Evaluation
Energy, Environmental & Economic Cost Analysis
Scenarios & Transition Strategies
Policy & Business Decisions
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Findings
• A revolution in transportation technology will be needed to meet societal goals. It appears to be technically feasible to cut transportation- related GHG emissions by 50-80% by 2050.
• A portfolio strategy is essential, combining energy efficiency, travel reduction and adoption of alternative fuels and vehicles.
• No single fuel or vehicle dominates the future. Instead, a diverse mix of fuels in different regions & transport applications.
• Investments needed to launch new clean vehicles and fuels << money flows in the current energy system.
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Recommendations
• Near term actions to reduce transportation-related GHG emissions and oil use & enable deep cuts by 2050.
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Increase efficiency of ICEVs, adopt lower-carbon fuels;
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Support emerging electric drive transportation technologies
(batteries and fuel cells);
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Continued R&D on “game changing” technologies;
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City-scale demonstrations to accelerate technology learning at the system level.
• Ongoing science to assess impacts of different choices:
GHG emissions, oil use, and water, land, air and materials.
• Strong and consistent policies.
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E eeac2012@rli.nl
I www.rli.nl
T #EeacRli l ‘Group ‘EEAC-RLI Conference 2012 on sustainable mobility’
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