System Dynamics for
Urban Sustainability
Analysis
Matteo Pedercini
Millennium Institute, Washington D.C.
Overview
1. Introduction to the Millennium Institute
2. System Dynamics (SD) for urban planning
3. T21 integrated SD model
4. Prospective for urban application of T21
5. Conclusions
1
SD for Urban Planning
Millennium Institute on the Map
T 21 Countries
MI Partner
MI Head Office
M 3 Countries
MEG Countries
2
SD for Urban Planning
What is System Dynamics?
stock
flow
Feedback Loop
2
SD for Urban Planning
Brief History
2
SD for Urban Planning
Brief History
2
SD for Urban Planning
A Current Example
2
SD for Urban Planning
Strengths of the Approach
Non-Linearity
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
Accumulation
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2
SD for Urban Planning
Strengths of the Approach
Input
???
Output
3
Overview of T21
Focus of Threshold 21
• Support policy analysis on mid-long term
development issues from an integrated
perspective
• Global, regional, national, (urban) challenges:
 Food security and poverty
 Climate Change and natural disasters
 Resources, emissions and sustainability
 Equity and vulnerability
3
Overview of T21
T21 – Core Structure
3
Overview of T21
Integration: the leading principle
MI’s T21 applications are grounded in the
principle of Integration:
(1) Integration of social, economic, and
environmental dimensions of development
(2) Integration of knowledge and input from
different sources and stakeholders
(3) Integration of planning instruments across
sectors, time horizons, and spatial scales
3
Overview of T21
Example: National Strategic Plan
Multiple goals in multiple sectors:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Macroeconomy
Agriculture
Industry
Poverty
Infrastructure
Education
Health
Vision
3
Overview of T21
Example: National Strategic Plan
What policy impact/contribution from each?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Macroeconomy
Agriculture
Industry
Poverty
Infrastructure
Education
Health
Vision
3
Overview of T21
Example: National Strategic Plan
What interactions across sectors?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Macroeconomy
Agriculture
Industry
Poverty
Infrastructure
Education
Health
Vision
3
Overview of T21
Example: National Strategic Plan
How much draw on resource base?
•
Macroeconomy
•
Agriculture
•
Industry
•
Poverty
•
Infrastructure
•
Education
•
Health
Vision
and
Sustain
ability
3
Overview of T21
Stakeholder Fora
3
Overview of T21
Causal Mapping
rural poverty
good governance+
participation in +
policy processes
farmers
organization
arable land -
+
land tenure
planning for
land use
+
access to basic
health care
infrastructure
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
literacy
+ rate
-
- +
population
+ + +
+
+
total factor
productivity +
+
+
+
+
- production
+
food
-
+
employment +
+
food availability-
entrepreneurial skills /
marketing information
+
+
diversity of food
+
food preferences
training on
entrepreneurial skills
+
preharvest
losses
+
+
inputs
applied knowledge
and technology
+
+
energy
access
- pests and
diseases
input
prices
information knowledge
and technology
+
research and
+ development
+
+
-
climate
change
food losses
+
storage capacity
-
Legend
Priority themes
local regional
export / trade
bio
pesticides
sustainability of
crops and livestock
extension
+
early warning
systems
income loss due to
preharvest loss
+
capital
+
market
access
+ availability of
+
water
nutritional value
+
+
+
natural resources
mechanisation
+
+
arable land
per farmer
fertilizer
+
+
labour force
+
+
-
chemical
pesticides
+ gender parity
+
water harvesting
income generating
activities
+
+
+
agriculture value addition
/ processing industries
access to productive
resources
+
-
family planning
cultivated land
+
locally sources
safety net
safety net
external food
aid
+
+
++food access food
prices
income
+
-+
food and
nutrition security
+
+
access to
education
+
+
security / absence of violence
-
access to
affordable finance
+
+
access to land
+
investment +-
+ + life expectancy
stunting rate
-
+
urbanization
risk insurance
Example for policy action
4
T21 for Urban Planning
Framework and Challenges
•
Scaling and adapting T21 to urban level
•
100 Smarter cities – application with Huangshi
and Xiamen
•
Treatment of spatial dimension
•
Data availability
•
Capacity development and institutionalization
5
Conclusions
Summary
T21 is an integrated simulation model that helps
managing complexity in policy-making:
•
Based on system dynamics
•
Support open and inclusive planning
•
Facilitate the identification of effective policies
•
Integrates social, economic, and environmental
factors
T21 – Urban Planning
Thank You for
Your Time
www.millennium-institute.org
mp@millennium-institute.org