November 27, 2012
Policy
Implications of
Warming
Permafrost
Kevin Schaefer
Ted Schuur
Dave McGuire
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Focus Discussion on Report
• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
• Nov 2012 at Doha Conference of Parties (CoP)
• Authors
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Coordinator: Ron Witt
Kevin Schaefer
Hugues Lantuit
Vladimir E. Romanovsky
Edward A. G. Schuur
• http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Impact of Thawing Permafrost
on Global Climate
• ~1700 Gt of carbon
in permafrost as
frozen organic
matter
• Thawing permafrost
will release CO2
and methane into
atmosphere
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
The Permafrost Carbon Feedback
• Amplifies surface warming
• Irreversible
• Emissions for centuries
Projected annual permafrost
emissions for A1B scenario
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Estimates of Permafrost Fluxes
Study
Permafrost Carbon Emissions (Gt C)
2100
2200
2300
Uncertainty
Schneider von Deimling et al. (2012)a
63 (82)
Koven et al. (2011)a
Schuur et al. (2009)
a,b
Schaefer et al. (2011)
a
a CO2
380 (493)
34%
62 (80)
302 (392)
nac
na
11%
85 (110)
na
na
15%
104 (135)
190 (246)
na
34%
equivalent calculated assuming 2.7% of total emissions is methane (Schuur et al. 2011) and a
global warming potential of 33 (Shindell et al. 2009)
b calculated from emission rates in the paper
c not available
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Impact on Climate Change Treaty
• 2°C warming target
• Account for permafrost
emissions
• AR5 Projections don’t
include permafrost emissions
• Temperatures higher with
feedback
• Emissions targets may be
too high
• Risk overshooting 2°C
warming target
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Temperature Projections
4th Assessment Report
Recommendation 1: Special IPCC
report on permafrost emissions
• IPCC special assessment report
– Future permafrost degradation
– Permafrost CO2 and methane emissions
– Projections with permafrost carbon feedback
• Complement current projections
• Support negotiation of emissions targets
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Recommendation 2: Create National
permafrost monitoring networks
• Issue: Current networks
not adequate
• Take over TSP/CALM
– increase funding
– standard measurements
– expand coverage
• All countries, especially
Russia, Canada, China,
United States
Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM)
Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP)
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Recommendation 3: Plan for adaptation
• Issue: No plans to address
infrastructure impacts
• Nations should develop
adaptation Plans
– Identify at-risk infrastructure
– Evaluate risks, costs,
mitigation
• All countries, especially
Russia, Canada, China,
United States
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Breakout Objectives
• How to implement recommendations?
1) Special IPCC Assessment
2) Nationalize CALM and TSP
3) Adaptation Plans
• Focus on (1)
• International Permafrost Association will focus
on (2) and (3)
• All suggestions welcome
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Questions to consider
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How to make special assessment a priority?
Who should we talk to?
Which agencies should be involved?
How should science community be organized?
What should the special assessment include?
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Thank you
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Acknowledgements
• Project Coordinator: Ron Witt, UNEP
• Authors
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Kevin Schaefer, University of Colorado
Hugues Lantuit, Alfred Wegener Institute
Vladimir E. Romanovsky, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Edward A. G. Schuur, University of Florida
• Full report: http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Permafrost is permanently
frozen ground
• Occurs in 24% of Northern Hemisphere land
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Permafrost has begun to thaw
Active Layer
Active layer thickness
increasing
Permafrost
Permafrost
temperatures
rising
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Permafrost will continue to thaw
Projection of active layer thickness for A1B scenario
year
Active Layer Thickness (cm)
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Impacts of Climate Change
on Permafrost
Ecosystems
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Infrastructure