ERA
ENVIRONMENTAL
RISK
ASSESSMENT
Dihimpun oleh: Sri Utami, A. Ali, Sopingi, F. Warrouw dan Soemarno
PSL-PDKLP-PPSUB Malang, Januari 2013
UNDANG-UNDANG REPUBLIK INDONESIA
NOMOR 32 TAHUN 2009
TENTANG
PERLINDUNGAN DAN PENGELOLAAN LINGKUNGAN
HIDUP
Paragraf 11
ANALISIS RISIKO LINGKUNGAN HIDUP
Pasal 47
(1) Setiap usaha dan/atau kegiatan yang berpotensi
menimbulkan dampak penting terhadap lingkungan hidup,
ancaman terhadap ekosistem dan kehidupan, dan/atau
kesehatan dan keselamatan manusia wajib melakukan
analisis risiko lingkungan hidup.
(2) Analisis risiko lingkungan hidup sebagaimana dimaksud
pada ayat (1) meliputi:
a. pengkajian risiko;
b. pengelolaan risiko; dan/atau
c. komunikasi risiko
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PENJELASAN PASAL-PASAL
Pasal 47
Ayat (1)
Yang dimaksud dengan “analisis risiko lingkungan” adalah
prosedur yang antara lain digunakan untuk mengkaji
pelepasan dan peredaran produk rekayasa genetik dan
pembersihan (clean up) limbah B3.
Ayat (2)
Huruf a
Dalam ketentuan ini “pengkajian risiko” meliputi seluruh proses
mulai dari identifikasi bahaya, penaksiran besarnya konsekuensi
atau akibat, dan penaksiran kemungkinan munculnya dampak
yang tidak diinginkan, baik terhadap keamanan dan kesehatan
manusia maupun lingkungan hidup.
Huruf b
Dalam ketentuan ini “pengelolaan risiko” meliputi evaluasi risiko
atau seleksi risiko yang memerlukan pengelolaan, identifikasi
pilihan pengelolaan risiko, pemilihan tindakan untuk pengelolaan,
dan pengimplementasian tindakan yang dipilih.
Huruf c
Yang dimaksud dengan “komunikasi risiko” adalah proses
interaktif dari pertukaran informasi dan pendapat di antara
individu, kelompok, dan institusi yang berkenaan dengan risiko
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RISK ASSESSMENT
Risk assessment is a step in a risk management procedure.
Risk assessment is the determination of quantitative or qualitative
value of risk related to a concrete situation and a recognized
threat (also called hazard).
Quantitative risk assessment requires
calculations of two components of risk (R):, the
magnitude of the potential loss (L), and the
probability (p) that the loss will occur.
In all types of engineering of complex systems sophisticated risk
assessments are often made within Safety engineering and
Reliability engineering when it concerns threats to life,
environment or machine functioning. The nuclear, aerospace, oil,
rail and military industries have a long history of dealing with risk
assessment. Also, medical, hospital, and food industries control
risks and perform risk assessments on a continual basis.
Methods for assessment of risk may differ between industries and
whether it pertains to general financial decisions or
environmental, ecological, or public health risk assessment.
Diunduh dari:
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RISK ASSESSMENT
Risk assessment is a step in a risk management procedure.
Risk assessment is the determination of quantitative or qualitative
value of risk related to a concrete situation and a recognized threat
(also called hazard).
Quantitative risk assessment requires calculations of two
components of risk (R):, the magnitude of the potential loss (L), and
the probability (p) that the loss will occur.
In all types of engineering of complex systems sophisticated risk
assessments are often made within Safety engineering and
Reliability engineering when it concerns threats to life, environment
or machine functioning.
The nuclear, aerospace, oil, rail and military industries have a long
history of dealing with risk assessment. Also, medical, hospital, and
food industries control risks and perform risk assessments on a
continual basis.
Methods for assessment of risk may differ between industries and
whether it pertains to general financial decisions or environmental,
ecological, or public health risk assessment.
Quantitative risk assessment
Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) is the determination of the probability
and consequences of potential losses in numerical terms. The assignment
of probability values to the various events in the risk model provides for a
quantitative assessment of risk.
An important aspect of risk assessment is the estimation of the
associated uncertainty. Therefore, the process may be completed through
the use of statistical models such as probability analysis, Poisson
distributions or Bayesian theory. These statistical models require the use
of past data and assumptions about future trends. Much of the data may
be accumulated from different sources.
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THEORIES
IN
ENVIRONMENTAL
RISK ASSESSMENT
• by Liviu – Daniel GALATCHI
• Assistant Professor
• Ovidius University, Constanta, Romania
•
N.A.T.O. A.R.W., August 07-11, 2005, Kaunas,
Lithuania
Diunduh dari:
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Theories in
Environmental Risk
Assessment
by Liviu – Daniel GALATCHI
Assistant Professor
Ovidius University, Constanta, Romania
N.A.T.O. A.R.W., August 07-11, 2005, Kaunas, Lithuania
Diunduh dari:
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What is environmental risk assessment
(ERA)?
Qualitative and quantitative
valuation of environmental status
ERA is comprised of:
1. Human health risk assessment;
2. Ecological risk assessment.
Pendekatan Sistematik untuk
Pendugaan Risiko
ERA should be conducted when it is
determined that a management
action may have consequences to
either humans or the environment.
Diunduh dari:
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Pendugaan Risiko
secara Sistematik
Pendugaan Risiko secara Sistematik
Menentukan
Perbaikan
Tingkat risiko
yang dapat
diterima
Menduga
Konsekwensi
Analisis
Sistem
Identifikasi
Bahaya
Menghitung
Risiko
Menduga
Frekuensi
Diunduh dari:
Penentuan
Aseptabilitas
Tingkat
risidu-risiko
yang dapat
diterima
Kriteria
Aseptabilitas
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Pendekatan Sistematik untuk
Pendugaan Risiko
Identifikasi Bahaya
Perhitungan bahaya: Daur hidup dan
batasan sistem, definisi, ekstraksi,
pengolahan, transport, limbah.
Evaluasi jalur lingkungan: dampak buruk
emisi, konsentrasi emisi, paparan emisi, dosis
emisi
Karakterisasi Risiko
Pengelolaan Risiko
Diunduh dari:
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Human health risk assessment
(HHRA)
Meliputi:
• Identifikasi Bahaya;
• dose-response
assessment;
• exposure assessment;
• Karakterisasi Risiko.
Diunduh dari:
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Ecological risk assessment
(ERA)
It is determined the likelihood of
the occurrence/non-occurrence
of adverse ecological effects as a
result of exposure to stressors
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Ecological risk assessment (ERA)
Pendugaan Risiko
Lingkungan
Sumberdaya:
Udara, Air, Tanah,
Biota
Identifikasi Masalah
Pendugaan Risiko
Kesehatan
Manusia
Identifikasi
Bahaya
Respon-Paparan
Karakterisasi
Risiko
Diunduh dari:
Pendugaan
Risiko
EKologis
Formulasi
masalah
Analisis
Karakterisasi
Risiko
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What is environmental risk assessment
(ERA)?
• Qualitative and quantitative valuation of
environmental status
ERA is comprised of:
1. human health risk assessment;
2. ecological risk assessment.
Qualitative risk assessment
Although the bulk of the effort in developing methods of risk analysis has been
addressed to quantitative methods, critical aspects of risk frequently require
qualitative evaluation. Qualitative risk analysis may use “expert” opinion to
estimate probability (or frequency) and consequence (or impacts) often through
linguistic expressions. Based on expert judgement different qualitative
consequence categories can be defined in terms of for example high, medium,
low, etc.
The same can be done for qualitative probability categories in terms of
expressions as likely, may occur, not likely, very unlikely. This subjective
approach may be sufficient to assess the risk of a system, depending on the
decisions to be made and available resources. Formal processes for expertopinion elicitation have been developed to provide consistency in qualitative
information gathering (e.g. Delphi technique). Concerning qualitative
uncertainty estimates, one has to rely on subjective estimates of uncertainty
Diunduh dari:
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Systematic approach to risk assessment
ERA should be conducted when it is determined that a
management action may have consequences to
either humans or the environment.
Seven steps of an ERA and associated key-questions (based on Fairman et al.,
1999)
1. Problem Formulation
What needs to be assessed?
2. Hazard Identification
What can go wrong?
3. Release Assessment
How often or how likely?
4. Exposure Assessment
How does the released material reach the
receptor, at which intensity, for how long
and/or how frequent? How likely will the
receptors be exposed to the released
pollution?
5. Consequence or Effect
What is the effect on the receptors?
Assessment
6. Risk Characterisation and What are the risks (quantitative or qualitative
Estimation
measure)?
7. Risk Evaluation
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How important is the risk to those affected,
those who create it and those who control it?
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Presentation of the general key tasks in environmental risk
assessment (Based on Fairman et al. 1999)
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Problem Formulation
The problem formulation step is crucial in ERA. Initially the problem has to
be defined and certain issues must be clear before the assessment starts:
What are the risk sources we want to assess? Are these point sources
(e.g. wind energy parks) or mobile sources (e.g. maritime transport,
fishing fleets) and what are the characteristics of these risk sources?
Are we concerned with the production, use or disposal of the hazard?
What are the environmental hazards to be taken into account: mineral oil,
chemicals, garbage, sewage, ballast water, tributyltin, emissions, noise
etc;
Which are the pathways in which the created hazard can reach the
receptor and which are the receptors and end-points?
Will we focus on pre-defined sensitive ecosystems (e.g. special areas of
conservation under the Habitats Directive, EC Birds Directive or areas
with a high value in recreational amenity or commercially exploitable
biological resources) or do we cover the risks for a broader area?
At this stage, a generic model should be defined to describe the functions,
features, characteristics and attributes of the system under investigation.
Other questions that need to be handled in this first step are those related
to legal and policy frameworks relevant to the risk assessment. Will we
rely on regulatory standards and policy frameworks as a guide to
determine "acceptable" risk and the significance of including specific endpoints? Is there a legal framework that determines how we should
approach the risk assessment?
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Hazard Identification
The purpose of this step is to identify all of the conceivable
and relevant hazards that could possibly cause harm to the
receptor of interest. The identification may involve the
establishment of those agents that may cause harm and
working backwards to identify how this harm could occur.
Alternatively, hazard identification may arise from
examining all possible outcomes of routine operation and
identifying the consequences from normal operation.[4]
The hazards identification step is closely linked to the next
step, release assessment in the sense that these steps are
both risk source related while the exposure and
consequence steps are risk receptor related. Often, no
distinction is made between hazard identification and
release assessment, and is simply denominated as
"hazard identification".
1. Fairman R., Mead C. D. and Williams W. P. (1999). Environmental Risk Assessment –
Approaches, Experiences and Information Sources. Monitoring and Assessment Research
centre, King’s College, London. Published by European Environment Agency – EEA
Environmental issue report No 4.
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Release Assessment
The Release Assessment step involves the identification of the potential of
the risk source to introduce hazardous agents into the environment. This
may be descriptive or involve the quantification of the release. Release
assessment attempts to give a measure of the likelihood of a release. It
will include a description of the types, amounts, timings and probabilities
of the release of hazards into the environment and a description of how
these attributes might change as a result of various actions or events.
Release assessment is also risk source related and therefore often
executed together with the hazard identification step.
In quantitative risk analysis (QRA), a quantitative estimation of the
probability of release can be approached in two ways:
The historical approach which uses direct statistical data on the system
under investigation. This may be collected monitoring data or data from
similar marine activities. This includes data on undesired events as well
as data on recovery and control measures which mitigates the potential
impacts.
The approach which uses analytical and simulation techniques, breaking
the system down into contributing factors and causes. Collected
monitoring data or data from similar marine activities are also used to
verify the modelling results.
Expert judgement can be used to estimate the likelihood or probability of a
release of hazards in a non-quantitative way. Based on the results of the
hazard identification, the likelihood is divided in different categories in
terms of terms of expressions as likely, may occur, not likely, very
unlikely.[1]
1. Wilcox R. LT. Burrows M. CDR. Ghosh S. and Ayyub B. M. (2000). Risk-based Technology for
the Safety Assessment of Marine Compressed Natural Gas Fuel Systems. International
Cooperation on Marine Engineering Systems/The Society of Naval Architects and Marine
Engineers. Paper presented at the 8th ICMES/SNAME New York Metropolitan Section
Symposium in New York, May 22-23, 2000.
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Exposure Assessment
Exposure assessment attempts to quantify the potential exposure levels
of the hazard at the receptor site. It includes a description of the intensity,
frequency and duration of exposure through the various exposure media
(routes of exposure) and the nature of the population exposed. Risk
assessment on ecosystems has to deal with a multitude of organisms, all
with varying sensitivities to chemicals and various groups have distinct
exposure scenarios (e.g. free swimming species have another exposure
pathway than benthonic species). The exposure assessment step
requires the use of monitoring data, exposure modelling techniques and
also mapping models to locate ecological sensitivity incorporating GIS
techniques.[4][6]
Most of the time, exposure of ecosystems to produced hazards is
determined in terms of the Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC).
The PEC is calculated on both local and regional spatial scales from
monitoring data where available (also called Monitored Environmental
Concentration (MEC)), or by using realistic worst-case scenarios. If this
information is not available, estimates are made from exposure models.
The PEC is calculated for each environmental compartment using the
information available on release quantities and subsequent degradation
processes in the "standard" environment. Site-specific information is used
when available and appropriate. The relevant compartments of the marine
environment are:[6]
1.
2.
3.
4.
Water-exposure of aquatic organisms across respiratory and other permeable
surfaces;
Sediment-exposure of sediment dwelling (benthic) organisms by ingestion of, or
direct contact with, sediment particles;
Biota-exposure of higher trophic levels via the food chain (secondary poisoning),
by predation on organisms that have been exposed via the water, sediment or
predation on other organisms.
Air-exposure for marine birds and mammals by inhalation of the chemical in the
air they breath (likely less significant than the other three)
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Consequence or Effect Assessment
A Consequence Assessment will examine the consequences of the release or
production of the hazards, to the specified population and the quantification of the
relationship between specified exposures to the hazard and the consequences of
those exposures. The consequences examined in ecological systems are varied and
few defined end-points exist at present. Environmental risk assessment on
ecosystems is concerned with different populations and communities and the effects
of substances on their mortality and fecundity.[4]
In ecological impact assessment, the consequences or effects can be estimated in
terms of the Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC).
Separate PNEC values need to be derived for the relevant compartments of interest:
water compartment, benthic compartment (sediments) and biota (representing
organisms which are eaten by avian and mammalian predators). PNEC values can
be derived using ecotoxicity tests. In these tests, the estimation of the PNEC is
primarily made on the basis of results from monospecies laboratory tests or, in some
cases, from model ecosystem tests. The available ecotoxicity data are used to derive
a No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) or a Lowest Observed Effect
Concentration (LOEC). The test species used are selected to represent the
sensitivities of different taxonomic groups in each environmental compartment. For
aquatic effects assessments, ecotoxicity data are required on representatives of fish
species, daphnia and algae.[4]
Assessment (safety) factors are applied to the toxicity value to enable extrapolation
from laboratory experiments to the field, acute to chronic effects and for inter and
intra species variations. The size of the assessment factor varies according to the
number and type of data available and the likely duration of exposure.[4][6]
Ecotoxicological Assessment Criteria (EACs) are defined as effects benchmarks
against which the results of environmental monitoring can be assessed in an attempt
to identify possible areas of concern. The determination of EACs is based on the
same principles as for the assessment factors. EACs are only derived when data
which meet predefined quality criteria are available from at least three species.
Expert judgement may also be used to assess the magnitude of the consequences in
qualitative terms. Dependent on the pollution source and ecosystem characteristics,
the potential consequences on the ecosystem are divided in different categories (e.g.
“minor” to “catastrophic”).
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Risk Characterisation and Estimation
Risk characterisation consists of integrating the results from the release assessment,
exposure assessment and the consequence assessment to produce measures of
environmental risks. This may include an estimate of the numbers of measures
indicating environmental damage, and the uncertainty involved in these estimates.[4]
In the risk characterisation as described above, PEC incorporates the results of the
release and the exposure assessment step while PNEC incorporates the results of
the consequence assessment step. Current risk assessment practice compares the
PEC with the PNEC for the relevant ecosystem using data from representative
species. Implicit in this approach is the assumption that there is a tolerable threshold
of any chemical substance in the environment (via the PNEC). An element of
precaution is built into the approach via the use of conservative/worse-case
assumptions within exposure and effects assessments.[6]
The EU practice on risk characterisation involves the calculation of a quotient – the
PEC/PNEC ratio. This PEC/PNEC ratio should be calculated for all relevant
endpoints. If the PEC/PNEC is less than 1, the substance of concern is considered to
present no risk to the environment and there is no need for further testing or risk
reduction measures. If the ratio cannot be reduced to below 1 by refinement of the
ratio (by gathering of further information and further testing), risk reduction measures
are necessary.[4]
The PEC/PNEC ratio risk characterisation method does not allow us to assess the
effective risk expressed in e.g. terms of number of affected individuals or reduced
population density in a specific region resulting from a particular activity. An overall
estimation of risk can be defined as the multiplication of the consequence for each
damage-causing event with the frequency of that event. The frequency of an event is
a result of the hazard identification and release step (e.g. frequency of collisions,
powered grounding, etc. within a particular area). The consequence of a damagecausing event is usually defined as casualty probabilities. This is presented in the
PECs (e.g. amount of fuel oil spilled due to collisions at the receptor site), taking into
account the relevant PNECs representing the thresholds below which no damage
exists for the investigated species (e.g. no effect concentrations of fuel oil in the
different relevant marine ecosystem compartments for seagulls). The population of
the species under investigation (e.g. seagulls) present in the areas covered by each
probability band is multiplied by the appropriate casualty probability producing the
total number of the population predicted to be affected by each event. When
combined with the frequency for each event, a risk estimate can be produced for this
specific species. This process can be repeated for a number of key species in order
to have an overall idea about
the risks
Diunduh
dari: for the whole ecosystem.
Although a quantitative risk assessment approach is preferred, there may be cases
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no PEC or PNEC can be properly calculated).
Risk Evaluation
Risk Evaluation is the examination of what the characterised risks actually means in
practice. What is the significance or value of the identified hazards and estimated
risks? Risk evaluation deals with the trade-off between the perceived risks and
benefits. This includes acknowledgement of the public perception of the risk and the
influence that this will have on the acceptability of risk and risk decisions. On its turn,
the public perception of risk depends on the economic, social, legal and political
context in which the affected and/or concerned population lives.[4]
The risk evaluation may take account of these perceived risks and benefits and
incorporate them in the final risk assessment. The results from this risk evaluation
may serve as an input to the risk management process. Based on the acceptable
level of risk eventual choices of action are determined needed to achieve the desired
level of risk. If a system has a risk value above the risk acceptance level, actions
should be taken to address concerned risks and to improve the system though risk
reduction measures.
The three major approaches to evaluate risks are:
1. Professional judgement: technical experts most knowledgeable in their fields
examine the risks and make conclusions based on ‘best judgement’. Expert
judgement may be used to estimate probability (step 3 and 4, see 1.3.2 and
1.3.3) and consequence (step 5, see 1.3.5). Based on a ranking of the
probability and consequences of the concerned risk, experts may
defineacceptance levels.
2. Formal analysis: Cost-benefit, cost-risk-benefit and decision analysis are the
most common of formal analysis techniques for alternative risk management
options. In cost benefit analysis and cost-risk-benefit analysis, benefits (e.g.
avoided pollution, risk) and costs (cost of pollution reduction or risk reduction
measures) associated with a particular risk management option are evaluated
against each other. Decision analysis is an axiomatic theory for making choices
in uncertain conditions.
3. Bootstrapping: Bootstrapping approaches identify and continue policies that
have evolved over time. It is argued that society achieves a reasonable balance
between risks and benefits only through experience. The safety levels achieved
with old risks provide the best guide as to how to manage new risks.
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Human health risk assessment
(HHRA)
Involves:
1.
2.
3.
4.
hazard identification;
dose-response assessment;
exposure assessment;
risk characterization.
Human Health Risk
Human health risk assessment involves examining issues related to
specific contaminants, including environmental fate and transport,
and exposure assessment. In addition, the toxicity parameters of
contaminants are evaluated to make sure that the latest scientific
knowledge is used in evaluating potential toxicity.
At sites involving remedial action, risk assessment is used to
determine the nature and extent of remedial activities, such as
establishing preliminary cleanup goals.
Diunduh dari:
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Ecological risk assessment
(ERA)
It is determined the likelihood of the occurrence/nonoccurrence of adverse ecological effects as a result
of exposure to stressors
Ecological Risk Assessment (EcoRA) involves the assessment
of the risks posed by the presence of substances released to
the environment by man, in theory, on all living organisms in
the variety of ecosystems which make up the environment.
EcoRAs tend to focus on the risks from chemicals and
Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs), some address
physical risks such as temperature rises caused by cooling
water releases from industry.
Ecological risk assessment is very much a developing field
and has many problems which need resolving such as;
1. Determining the effects at population and community
level;
2. Selection of end-points;
3. Selection of indicative species;
4. The selection of field, laboratory, mesocosm and
microcosm tests;
5. The incorporation of resilience and recovery factors of the
ecosystem.
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/GH-07-97-595-EN-C2/chapter6h.html
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Hazards - Bahaya
1. chemicals toxic to humans, animals, and
plants;
2. materials that are highly flammable or
explosive;
3. mechanical equipment, the failure of
which would endanger persons and
property;
4. structural failure (e.g., dam or containment
vessel);
5. natural disasters that exacerbate
technological hazards;
6. ecosystem damage (e.g., eutrophication,
soil erosion).
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Contoh Informasi Bayaya
1. potential release of hazardous chemicals
(rate and amount);
2. accidental fires and explosions;
3. transport and fate of pollutants in the environment;
4. dilution-dispersion mechanisms and rates;
5. exposure to toxins (who, how many, how much);
6. dose-response predictions based on animal tests;
7. failure rates of mechanical equipment or
structures;
8. human behavior (errors by workers, public
reaction);
9. natural hazards (earthquake, tsunami, typhoon);
10. alterations in drainage patterns, water table,
vegetation, microclimate.
Diunduh dari:
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Uncertainties – Ketidak-pastian
1. lack of understanding of important cause-effect
relationships, lack of scientific theory;
2. models that do not correspond to reality;
3. weaknesses in available data;
4. data gaps;
5. toxicological data that are extrapolated;
6. natural variation in environmental parameters;
7. necessary assumptions on which estimates are
based, and the sensitivity of the resulting
estimates to changes in the assumptions;
8. novelty of the project.
ERA fokus pada tiga pertanyaan
1.
2.
3.
What can go wrong with the project?
What is the range of magnitude of these adverse
consequences?
What can be done and at what cost to reduce
unacceptable risk and damage?
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The interactive
nature of ERA
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Pembandingan Risiko
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Probability of frequency of events causing one or
more immediate fatalities.
Chance of death for an individual within a
specified population in each year.
Number of deaths from lifetime exposure.
Loss of life expectancy considers the age at which
death occurs.
Deaths per tone of product, or per facility.
Tujuan melaksanakan ERA
1. to learn about the risks
2. to reduce the risk
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
Pendugaan Risiko secara Kuantitatif –
Skenario yang mungkin
1. quantity of toxic material in the inventory is
hazardous;
2. overpressure in the storage tank in combination
with failure of the relief valve leading to tank
rupture;
3. combination of wind speed and atmospheric
stability leading to an estimated spatial and
temporal distribution of toxic material
concentration;
4. population distribution based on night-time
occurrence.
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
Komunikasi Risiko
Psychologists studying risk perception find that
fears are heightened beyond what the objective
facts would warrant when:
1. risks are involuntary or controlled by others;
2. the consequences are dread and delayed;
3. the benefits and risks are inequitably
distributed;
4. the proposed project is unfamiliar and involves
complex technology;
5. basic needs such as clean air, drinking water,
or food are threatened.
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
Risk management:
3 main phases
1. Risk analysis and assessment: identification of
hazards to people and the environment, the
determination of the probability of occurrence of
these hazards, and the magnitude of the events.
2. Risk limits - entails defining the acceptability of the
risk, which can be classified as acceptable or in
need of reduction.
3. Risk reduction: design and implementation of riskreducing measures and controls.
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
Manajemen Risiko: Tiga tahapan utama
Riset
Pendugaan Risiko
Manajemen Risiko
Observasi
lapang dan
laboratorium ttg
efek kesehatan
dan paparan
agen-agen
tertentu
Identifikasi
bahaya:
Penyebab
terjadinya efek
buruk
Pengembang
an pilihan
Regulasi dan
Non-regulasi
Informasi
metode
ekstrapolasi
Untuk dosis
tinggi hingga
rendah dan
binatang ke
manusia
Pendugaan
respon-dosis
(Hubungan
antara dosis
dengan
insiden pada
manusia)
Evaluasi
konsekwensi
akibat regulasi:
kesehatan,
ekonomi, sosial
dan politik
Pengukuran
lapangan,
estimasi
paparan,
karakterisasi
populasi
Diunduh dari:
Pendugaan
paparan:
Apakah
paparan terjadi
sekarang atau
diantisipasi
pada kondisi
lain?
Karakterisasi
risiko:
deskripsi
risiko,
pendugaan
bahaya,
respon-dosis,
paparan
Lembaga
Pengambil
Keputusan
dan Program
Aksi
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
Rencana Manajemen Bencana
1.
2.
3.
4.
details of the specification of equipment and
machineries, plot plan, and hazardous areas
classifications;
details of the risk assessment procedure adopted;
details of the on-site and off-site emergency plan;
details of the fire extinguishers and foams.
Arahan Perencanaan Manajemen
Bencana
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Specification;
Plot plan;
Hazardous area classification;
Diagrams showing all the equipment in position,
process and utility valves, instruments, control
system, safety valves and other safety devices;
Storage of inflammable liquids;
Risk assessment.
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
Analisis Bahaya:
Pendugaan Risiko Pabrik
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Which materials or process streams are flammable or
combustible?
What is their ignition temperature or what is their
ignition energy requirement?
How fast will they burn?
How much heat can be generated per unit?
How much quantity will be available in any one area?
Will it explode?
Scope and objectives of risk assessment of industries
1. To develop a risk hazard checking system.
2. To rank the plant layout on the hazard potentials.
3. To re-modify the plant layout and identify safety
measures to be undertaken within the industry, so as to
minimize the on-site economic damage as well as off-site
risks to the society and environment.
4. To assist the regulatory authorities, planners, and
designers to investigate plant accidents and predict the
possible consequences for decision-making.
5. make decisions on industrial clearance swiftly and on a
more rational basis.
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
Pendugaan TOTAL RISIKO
1.
2.
3.
Identification of possible hazardous events.
Consequence analysis.
Quantitative analysis of system failure
probability from their component failure or
frequency assessment
PROSEDUR IDENTIFIKASI BAHAYA
depends primarily upon two
factors: data and organization.
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
KATAGORI MODEL DISPERSI
1. Simple "passive'' dispersion involves neutral buoyancy
and plume rise for heat and momentum. It is used for
those phases of gas dispersion dominated by
atmospheric turbulence.
2. Moment jet dispersion covers high velocity release, when
the released gas can be denser or lighter than air, and
involves simple horizontal jet models, and complex plume
path models.
3. Dense vapour cloud dispersion deals with clouds heavier
than air, cold clouds, and liquid and vapour clouds.
KATAGORI MODEL DISPERSI
• Vulnerability model or probit equations have been
derived for estimating, from dose relationships, the
probability of affecting a certain proportion of the
exposed population. These have been based almost
exclusively on animal test data. The probit equation is:
Pr = At + Bt ln(Cnte)
where Pr = probability function, At, Bt, and n are constants,
C is the concentration of pollutant to which exposure is
made (in ppm v/v), and te is the duration of exposure to
the pollutant, measured in minutes.
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
Pendugaan Frequensi & Analisis
Kuantitatif
• What is the probability that the system will fail on
demand?
• What is the frequency of occurrence of the top
event?
• Does a change in the system design improve or
reduce the system reliability?
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
Categorization of the risk (probability x impact) of each
consequence, e.g. using a risk graph
Diunduh dari: http://www.frame-online.net/architecture/about-architecture/19-howcan-you-undertake-risk-analysis.html ………. 8/1/2013
Kejadian yang melibatkan bahanbahan mudah terbakar
(a) major fires with no danger of explosion, with hazards from
prolonged high levels of thermal radiation and smoke;
(b) fire threatening items of plant containing hazardous substances,
with hazards from spread of fire, explosion, or release of toxic
substances;
(c) explosion with little or no warning, with hazards from blast wave,
flying debris, and high levels of thermal radiation.
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
Another way of showing the different priorities of risks is by arranging
them in the probability-impact-diagram. Mathematically spoken, the
risk value is the statistically expected value of impact or damage that
risk event could cause.
Diunduh dari: http://www.project-management-knowhow.com/risk_management.html
………. 6/1/2013
Kejadian yang melibatkan bahan-bahan toksik
(a)
slow or intermittent release of toxic substances, (from a leaking
valve);
(b) items of plant threatened by fire, with hazards from potential
loss of containment;
(c) rapid release of limited duration, due to plant failure (fracture of
pipe, with hazards from a toxic cloud, limited in size, which may
quickly disperse);
(d) massive release of a toxic substance due to failure of a large
storage or process vessel, an uncontrollable chemical reaction
and failure of safety systems, with the exposure hazard
affecting a wide area.
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
A risk assessment for a toxic pollutant combines results of studies on
the health effects of various animal and human exposures to the
pollutant with results of studies that estimate the level of people's
exposures at different distances from the source of the pollutant.
Diunduh dari: http://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=19608………. 6/1/2013
Pendugaan tentang “Kecelakaan” yang
mungkin-terjadi harus menghasilkan laporan
yang menyatakan:
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
the worst events considered;
the route of those worst events;
the timescale to lesser events along the way;
the size of lesser events if their development is halted;
the relative likelihood of events;
the consequences of each event.
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
Diagram is adapted from UNDMTP/Disaster Assessment (1994)
Diunduh dari:
http://log.logcluster.org/response/assessment/index.html………. 8/1/2013
Elements to be included in an on-site
emergency plan
(a) proper alarm and communication mechanisms;
(b) appointment of personnel, which include:
(i) the site incident controller who will take care of
the area around the incident when the
emergency occurs and who will arrange the
required rescue operations;
(ii) a site main controller who will direct operations
from the emergency control center after
relieving the site incident controller of the
responsibility for overall control;
(c) details of the emergency control centers.
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
Aspects to be included in an off-site
emergency plan
(i) Organization.
(ii) Communications.
(iii) Specialized emergency equipment.
(iv) Specialized knowledge.
(v) Voluntary organizations.
(vi) Chemical information.
(vii) Meteorological information.
(viii) Humanitarian arrangements.
(ix) Public information.
(x) Assessment.
Diunduh dari:
www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013
ENVIRONMENTAL
RISK
ASSESSMENT
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
PENDAHULUAN
•
•
•
•
Eventual goal of much environmental toxicology is ecological risk
assessment (ERA)
Developed as a management tool to aid in making environmental
decisions (area of much uncertainty)
Estimates risk of producing new product, releasing a pesticide or
effluent into the environment, etc.
May not be scientific  assessment endpoints often set by
societal perceptions and values
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
Key Concepts – Risk
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Risk is a function of both
hazard (toxicity) and
exposure
Most chemicals have the
potential to cause adverse
effects at high enough doses
but there is usually a dose – a
low enough exposure - below
which no effects will occur
Generally, as the amount of
exposure increases, so does
the risk of effects
This is why risk assessments
put such a strong emphasis
on estimating both the
amount and duration of
exposures
Risk assessments match up
what we know about hazard
with how exposure is
expected to occur
Used to identify potential
concerns and risks
DIUNDUH DARI: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/aquaculture/consultations/2012/PMRA-ARLAeng.htm…. 8/1/2013
Purpose of ERA
• Purpose is to enable risk managers to make
informed environmental decisions.
• Conducted to transform scientific data into
meaningful information about the risk of human
activities to the environment.
EPA/630/R-95/002F
April 1998
Guidelines for
Ecological Risk Assessment
(Published on May 14, 1998, Federal Register
63(93):26846-26924)
Risk Assessment Forum
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, DC
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
Framework for Environmental Risk Assessment
1. Previously risk assessment seen only as hazard assessment and fate
2. But above not easily separated in ecological systems  when release
chemical starts to change ecosystem while ecosystem is changing
chemical
3. Need to go beyond and predict probability of ecological effects of
chemical or action
Environmental risks in the sea
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
Framework for Environmental Risk Assessment
1.
2.
Interaction among risk assessors, risk managers, and
interested parties all phases of an ERA is critical to ensure
that the results can be used to support a management
decision.
Because of the diverse expertise required (especially in
complex ecological risk assessments), risk assessors and
risk managers frequently work in multidisciplinary teams.
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
Environmental Risk Assessment Framework
DIUNDUH DARI: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/aquaculture/consultations/2012/PMRA-ARLAeng.htm…. 8/1/2013
Schematic of Framework
ERA includes three
primary phases:
1. Problem
formulation
2. Analysis
3. Risk
characterizati
on
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
Outline of Phases of an ERA
1. Problem formulation
– Beginning of dialogue between risk managers and
risk assessors.
– Selection of assessment endpoints (what is
important?)
– Risk assessors evaluate goals
– Prepare the conceptual model
– Develop an analysis plan.
2. Analysis phase
– Assessors evaluate exposure to stressors and the
relationship between stressor levels and ecological
effects.
3. Risk characterization,
⁻ assessors estimate risk through integration of
exposure and stressor-response profiles,
⁻ describe risk by discussing lines of evidence and
determining ecological adversity, and prepare a
report.
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
Problem formulation
1.
2.
3.
Start of iterative process of defining the question under
consideration
Directly affects the scientific validity and policy-making
usefulness of the ERA
Composed of several six subunits
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
1. Discussion between risk assessor and risk
manager
– Sets boundaries created by societal goals
and scientific reality (data)
– Consolidates ambiguous goals
• Protection of endangered species
• Protection of fishery
• Preserve structure and function of
ecosystem
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
2. Stressor characteristics?
• Can be biological, physical,
chemical
• Characterized by
– intensity (conc. or dose)
– duration
– frequency
– timing
– scale
Temporal
aspects
Spatial aspect
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
3. Ecosystems Potentially at Risk?
• Difficult to address  transport often
difficult to predict
• Need to look at
–
–
–
–
Abiotic-biotic factors
History
Size
Geographic relationships
4. Efek-efek ekologis?
• Includes any impact upon any level of ecosystem
• Derived from hazard assessment (acute/chronic
toxiciy) and consideration of:
– Biotransformations
– Biodegradation
– Reproductive effects
– Predator-prey interactions
– Production
– Community biomass
– Anything which has a direct role in the functioning
of the ecosystem
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
4. Efek-efek ekologis?
• Includes any impact upon any level of ecosystem
• Derived from hazard assessment (acute/chronic
toxiciy) and consideration of:
– Biotransformations
– Biodegradation
– Reproductive effects
– Predator-prey interactions
– Production
– Community biomass
– Anything which has a direct role in the functioning
of the ecosystem
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
5. Endpoint selection
• Most critical aspect of problem formulation 
sets stage for remainder of process
• Two types of endpoints
– Assessment endpoints
• Set by ecological relevance, policy goals/societal values
(i.e. protect ecosystem structure/function)
• Often can only infer from measurement endpoints
– Measurement endpoints
• Measurable factors that respond to stressors and describe
characteristics of ecosystem important to assessment
endpoints
• Design and selection based on relevance, practicality, etc
6. Model Konseptual
• Framework into which data are placed
• Defines how data will be interpreted (what is likely to be
affected:
– Migratory birds?
– Temporary pond amphibians?
– Etc
Note: all above subject to revision based on collected
information from data acquisition, verification, monitoring
(DVM)
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
Analysis
1.
2.
3.
Comes into play as problem formulation is completed
Most important part  characterization of ecosystem(s) of
concern
Composed of five subunits
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
1. Ecosystem Characterization
• Often difficult to perform because
–
–
–
–
Ecosystem no longer there?
Boundaries?
Climate changes?
Biotic interactions?
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
2. Stressor characteristics and
evaluation of relevant effects
•
•
•
•
Chemical properties?
Toxicity?
Usually evaluate from published data
May do own tests but expensive  only do if absolutely
necessary
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
3. Analisis Paparan
• Determine
environmental
concentration
– Difficult  end of
pipe
biotransformatio
n  media
heterogeneity 
now how much
toxic stuff is there?
– Non-point sources
can be even more
difficult
• Where to
measure?
• When to
measure?
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
4. Ecological response analysis
• Most difficult stage of ERA because as test system becomes
more environmentally realistic the ability to accurately
predict effects decreases
• Can use
–
–
–
–
Toxicity data
Microcosms
Field data/observations
Etc.
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
5. Stressor/response analysis
• Analogous to dose/response but using single species
toxicity to extrapolate to population/community level
responses
• Have to take other (natural) stressors into account
Dose Response Analysis
http://www.scoop.it/t/apes-human-hazards530/p/1354681905/doseresponse-analysis
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
KARAKTERISASI RISIKO
• Final stage of an ERA
• Combines ecological effect and environmental
concentration to provide likelihood of effects given
distribution of stressor within ecosystem
• Composed of two parts:
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
1. ESTIMASI RISIKO
A.
Integration
1)
2)
B.
Integrate exposure with toxicity
Use quotient method of estimating
environmental risk
Uncertainty analysis – how much
confidence (certainty) in
data/information
1)
Can have formal mathematical analysis or
informal “best guess” analysis
2. DESKRIPSI RISIKO
• Ecological risk summary
– “what are the potential effects and do I believe
them?
• Interpretation of ecological significance
– “how big a problem is this really going to be”
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
Quotient Method
Quotient =
Expected environmental concentration
Concentration producing an unacceptable
environmental effect
Quotient
Risk
>1
~1
Potential of high
risk
Potential risk
<< 1
Low risk
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
Discussion between Risk Assessor
and Risk Manager
1.
2.
Report from risk assessor to risk manager
Risk manager may take information and perform a
risk/benefit analysis
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
Discussion between Risk Assessor
and Risk Manager
1.
2.
3.
Report from risk assessor to risk manager
Risk manager may take information and perform a
risk/benefit analysis is the economic benefit worth the
environmental cost?
Report may generate multiple vituperative displays of
acrimony among interested parties
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
MANAJEMEN RISIKO
1.
2.
Manage risk taking environmental, social, economic effects
into account
Management usually implemented in the form of policy and
legislation
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
Monitor Results
1.
2.
Usually need to implement an on-going monitoring plan to
determine if management objectives are being met
Often not performed as extensively as necessary until a
problem arises
DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013
RISK
ASSESSMENT
AND
MANAGEMENT
Diunduh dari: www.ess.co.at/TEACHING/FTP/GEO12.ppt ...... 6/1/2013
RISIKO ITU APA ?
 the probability
 the probability
of incurring a loss or
injury
TIPE-TIPE RISIKO
•
•
•
•
•
voluntary or involuntary
high-probability, low-consequence
low-probability, high-consequence
individual or societal
environmental or technological
TIPE-TIPE PENGELOLAAN RISIKO
1.
2.
3.
4.
Inactive (ignore it)
Reactive (abatement)
Interactive (management)
Proactive (planning)
TIPE-TIPE MANAJEMEN RISIKO
1.
2.
Risk assessment and planning: identify, forecast,
analyse, plan
Operational risk abatement: detect, diagnose,
correct
MENGESTIMASI RISIKO
A Gaming approach:
• probability of winning,
• amount to win,
• probability of losing,
• amount to lose.
MENGESTIMASI RISIKO
Expected value:
 probability of loss or damage
 magnitude of the loss
Vexp = p(D) * V(D)
MENGESTIMASI RISIKO
Some problems:
• risk is about the unexpected: this
means large inherent uncertainties
• low probability means little data
• insurance can be expensive, consider
the opportunity costs
RISIKO LINGKUNGAN
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
floods and droughts
hurricanes, typhoons
earthquakes, tsunamis
mudslides, avalanches
forest fires
toxic fumes (Cameroon)
climate change, sea level rise
Flood Risk Assessment indicators, methods and datasets
Diunduh dari:
….. 8/1/2013
RISIKO TEKNOLOGIS
• fires and explosions
• toxic chemicals release
- from process plants
- from transportation accidents
• oil spills
• nuclear accidents
RISIKO TEKNOLOGIS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
dioxin release (Seveso, 1976)
gas explosion (Mexico, 1984)
methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984)
toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986)
Chernobyl (reactor meltdown)
Amocco Cadiz , Exxon Valdez
(Oils spills)
KEAMANAN INDUSTRI
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Leadership and Administration
Management and Training
Job Analysis and Procedures
Emergency Preparedness
Accident/Incident Analysis
Employee Training
Safety and Protective Equipment
FASILITAS TANGGAP-DARURAT
•
•
•
•
•
•
Plant Emergency Organization
Plant Risk Evaluation
Area Risk Evaluation
Notification Procedures, Communication
Emergency Equipment and Facilities
Procedure for return to normal operations
FASILITAS TANGGAP-DARURAT
•
•
•
•
•
•
Plant Emergency Organization
Plant Risk Evaluation
Area Risk Evaluation
Notification Procedures, Communication
Emergency Equipment and Facilities
Procedure for return to normal operations
FASILITAS TANGGAP-DARURAT
Plant Risk Evaluation
• quantities, locations, and storage
conditions of hazardous materials
• properties of materials (MSD sheets)
• location of isolation valves
• fire fighting procedures
• special handling requirements
Plant risk evaluation
Site data base includes basic administrative,
technical, regulatory
and safety relevant information:
hazardous chemicals
safety response plans
and equipment
Plant risk evaluation
Hazardous chemicals data base includes substance
identification data (names, synonyms, CAS, UN
number), physical, chemical, and toxicological
properties, associates production processes and
waste streams.
Facility Emergency Response
•
•
•
•
•
•
Plant Emergency Organization
Plant Risk Evaluation
Area Risk Evaluation
Notification Procedures, Communication
Emergency Equipment and Facilities
Procedure for return to normal operations
FASILITAS TANGGAP-DARURAT
Area Risk Evaluation
• hazardous materials at nearby plants
• nearby residences, population centers including
schools, hospitals, nursing homes (evacuation
procedures)
• contacts at other sites (names, phone)
• notification procedures
ANALISIS BAHAYA
a spatial approach:
• evaluates the vulnerability of a
geographical area, its population and
environment to technological risks (e.g.,
hazardous materials release from process
plants or transportation accidents)
ANALISIS BAHAYA: CHECKLIST
 Has a hazards analysis been completed
for this area ?
 When was it last updated ?
 Does the analysis include the location,
type, and amount of hazardous
materials manufactured, processed,
stored, disposed within the area ?
ANALISIS BAHAYA: CHECKLIST
 Does it include transportation routes of
hazardous materials ?
 Have areas of public health concern be
identified ?
 Have sensitive environmental areas been
identified ?
ANALISIS BAHAYA: CHECKLIST
 Have historical data on accidents been
collected and analyzed ?
 Have levels of vulnerability been identified for
different areas ?
 Are environmentally sensitive areas and
population centers included in plant and
transportation risk assessment ?
CONTOH APLIKASI
simulation of atmospheric dispersion of toxic
substances from transportation or process plant
accidents.
uses local geographical, land use, and
and population data to
estimate exposure and
simulate evacuation
plans.
CONTOH APLIKASI
• simulation of aquatic spills of toxics.
• uses chemical properties together with
hydrological data, estimates the concentration of
the chemical along the
river and over time.
Can use an embedded
expert system to
estimate environmental
Risk Planning:
Regulatory frameworks
•
•
•
•
safety audits, regular inspections
chemicals registry
waste management
transportation
safety
• emergency
planning
• zoning
Disaster Preparedness - conducts hazard vulnerability studies,
provides Disaster Planning and preparedness for response and
recovery.
Diunduh dari: http://www.gobroomecounty.com/files/e911/Images/Emergency%20Management.jpg
….. 8/1/2013
PENDUGAAN RISIKO
Risk contours around a plant location:
10-6 events/year unacceptable individual risk
10-8 events/year negligible risk
PENDUGAAN RISIKO
Risk levels (the Dutch perspective)
10-4 events/year: voluntarily accepted in daily life
10-5 events/year: maximum tolerable total involuntary risk
10-6 events/year: unacceptable involuntary from a single source
10-8 events/year: negligible risk
Assigning a Risk Level
Risk assessment is typically done through the use of simple and intuitive risk
maps such as the one illustrated below. These maps can be used to analyze,
by risk, the likelihood of occurrence and the impact it may have on the
business objectives. The plotting of each risk according to these two
attributes provides management with a risk rating (Red, Yellow, Green). The
placement of the risk in either one of these zones will dictate or guide
management's action plans.
Diunduh dari: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/ae-ve/irm-gir/guide-eng.htm ….. 8/1/2013
PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO
• Hazard identification
• Accident frequency and consequence
estimation
• Risk calculation
• Risk reduction and acceptability
PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO
Hazard Identification (HAZID)
• Process/system checklist
• Safety review
• Preliminary Hazard Analysis
• Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
• Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP)
• Systematic Identification of Release Points
PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO
Frequency and Consequence Estimation:
• Fault tree
• Event tree
• Cause Consequence Diagram
• Generic Reliability Database
Diagram of the pathways and reactions leading to the formation of
acid rain in our atmosphere.
Diunduh dari:
http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/kling/water_nitro/water_nitro.ht
ml ….. 8/1/2013
PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO
Fault tree analysis: run-away reaction due to
cooling failure
PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO
Failure of:
1.
heating system
2.
sensor
3.
shutdown system
4.
cooling system
5.
safety valve
PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO
Event tree: traces possible events from loss of cooling to: Safe
shutdown; Discharge from safety valve ; Explosion.
PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO
Every event A has possible outcome
C (with probability: p) and B (1-p)
depending on failure probability
PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO
Consequences:
• discharge (flow, evaporation)
• fire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireball
• explosion and release:
– unconfined vapor cloud (UVCE)
– boiling liquid expanding vapor
explosion (BLEVE)
– physical explosion
– runaway reaction explosion
– dust gas/dust mixture explosion
HUMAN
HEALTH
RISK
ASSESSMENT
Diunduh dari:
www.sawa2006.com/.../23%20-...…….. 6/1/2013
PENDUGAAN RISIKO LINGKUNGAN
 Define the elements of RA
 Understand the types of
information needed for each
element of RA
 Describe how Env. Hazards can be
identified
 Describe Dose – Response
association
 Describe direct & indirect
approaches of EA
 Describe potential errors in Env,
Sampling
Dr. Atallah Rabi
Department of Public Health
Faculty of Medicine
Jordan University of Science & Technology
BASIC PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN HEALTH
RISK ASSESSMENT
Risk is a Function of Exposure and Toxicity.
The Toxicity of a Chemical and the Potential for
Exposure to that Chemical are Equal Partners in Risk
Assessment .
Examples: A substance may be very Toxic to
humans, but without Exposure to that substance, there
is little if any Risk (e.g., Arsenic kept in a glass jar).
Also, one may be Exposed to large amounts of a
substance, but if the substance has a low Toxicity,
there is minimal Risk (e.g., Water in a swimming pool).
PENDUGAAN RISIKO
• The process of evaluating possible effects, on people, as a
result of exposure to environmental hazards
• The study of the relationship between environmental
hazards and the health of the exposed population
UNSUR-UNSUR PENDUGAAN RISIKO
1.
2.
3.
4.
Anticipate the Potential for Risk
Recognize and Identify the Hazard
Evaluate the Hazard
Recommend Ways to Control and Manage
the Risk to Acceptable Levels
BASIC PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN HEALTH RISK
ASSESSMENT
Risk is a Function of Exposure and Toxicity.
The Toxicity of a Chemical and the Potential for Exposure
to that Chemical are Equal Partners in Risk Assessment .
Examples: A substance may be very Toxic to humans,
but without Exposure to that substance, there is little if
any Risk (e.g., Arsenic kept in a glass jar). Also, one may
be Exposed to large amounts of a substance, but if the
substance has a low Toxicity, there is minimal Risk (e.g.,
Water in a swimming pool).
Risk assessments are based on a
number of assumptions:
Assumption 1: Humans can manage the environment by
deciding how much damage the earth and humans can
absorb without causing harm. Scientists call this the
"assimilative capacity" when talking about the earth or
the "threshold level" or "no effect level" when talking
about the human body. According to this assumption,
scientists can reliably determine how much of any harmful
chemical the earth or human body can safely assimilate or
absorb without causing harm.
Assumption 2: Once a system's "assimilative capacity" has
been determined, then we can and will see to it that no
greater exposure is permitted to occur. We will set limits
(regulations) river by river, factory by factory, chemical by
chemical, neighborhood by neighborhood.
Assumption 3: We already know which practices and
substances are harmful and which are not; or, in the case
of practices and substances that we never suspected of
being harmful, we will be warned of their possible
dangers by traumatic but sub lethal shocks that alert us to
the danger before it is too late.
HAKEKAT PENDUGAAN RISIKO
1.
A Risk Assessment Compares the Predicted Human
Exposure vs. the Established Exposure Limit for a
Substance.
2.
The Lower the Exposure in Comparison to its Exposure
Limit, the Lower the Associated Risk from the Substance.
UNSUR-UNSUR PENDUGAAN RISIKO



Anticipation
Recognition
Evaluation
Effect/Dose = Dose-Response
Dose = Exposure
Control is NOT an element
PENDUGAAN PAPARAN
Three Different Areas of Potential
Human Exposure to a New
Substance Must be Evaluated:
1. Potential for Inhalation of Vapors
2. Potential for Absorption thru Skin
3. Potential Ingestion of the
Substance either Intentionally or
by Accident.
• Metode Langsung
– Personal monitoring
– Biological monitoring
• Metode tidak-langsung
– Environmental monitoring
– Questionnaires
– Models
PEMANTAUAN PERSONAL
• Direct measurement Respiratory System exposure:
– Personal Air Monitoring Devises provide direct
measurement of concentrations of air contaminants
• Direct measurement of Digestive system
exposure:
– Water, food and soil samples
• Direct measurement of Skin Exposure:
– Using skin batches
– Determining the effectiveness of gloves in protecting
the skin
PEMANTAUAN BIOLOGIS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Area sampling and measurement of concentration
Personal air sampling to determine dose
Blood levels to determine dose
A marker effect such as free erythrocyte
protoporphyrine (FEP) in blood
BM measures induced variations in absorption,
metabolism, and response to En Agents.
A biological marker of effect must be a measurable,
biochemical, physiological or other alteration within
organism that has the potential to cause disease.
Useful markers of exposures
Substance
Biological marker
• Carbon monoxide
• Lead
• Pentachloropenol
(PCP)
• Alcoholic beverages
• Volatile organics
(VOCs)
•
•
•
•
•
COHb in blood
Pb in blood
PCP in urine
Ethanol in exhaled air
VOCs in exhaled air
Perhitungan asupan harian kronis
CDI = Cm x Im x EF x ED
————————
BW x AT
where:
CDI =
Cm =
Im =
EF =
ED =
BW =
AT =
chronic daily intake (mg/kg/day)
concentration in affected media (e.g., mg/L)
intake of affected media (e.g., L/day)
exposure frequency, days/year
exposure duration, years
body weight, kg
averaging time, days
Menghitung Asupan dnegan INHILASI
EFI = (C X IR X EF)/BW
EFI = Estimated dose through inhalation (mg/kg/day)
C = Concentration in air (mg/m3)
IR = Inhalation Rate (m3/day)
EF = Exposure factor (frequency of exposure over a life
time)
BW = Body weight (Kg)
FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI
PAPARAN KULIT
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Surface area exposed
Part of body exposed
Length of contact
Concentration of chemical on skin
chemical permeability to skin
Type of material through which chemical comes with skin
(water, soil, or oil).
Skin condition when in contact with chemical
Calculating Intake via Ingestion and Skin Absorption
Ingestion EDI
= (C x IgR x EF) / BW
Skin absorp. (H2O) EDI = (C x P x SA xET x EF) / BW
Skin absorp. (soil) EDI = (C x A x BF x EF) / BW
C = concentration
IgR = Ingestion rate (lit/day)
P = Permeability factor
SA = Surface area exposed
ET= Exposure time
EF = Exposure factor
BW = body weight (kg)
A = Total soil adhered
BF = Bioavailability Factor (% of chemical in soil actually free to move out of soil
and through skin).
Penggunaan Model Dosis-Respons dalam
pendugaan Risiko Karsinogenik
Response
C
Response
A
risk estimate
dose estimate
Dose, mg/kg/day
Dose, mg/kg/day
B
A: Dose-response curve
for nonthreshold model;
D
Response
Response
Slope is rise/run . . .
with units 1/(mg/kg/day)
B: calculating the slope
of the dose-response
curve;
“acceptable”
response
“safe” dose
Dose, mg/kg/day
Dose, mg/kg/day
C: dose estimate
determines the risk
estimate;
D: “acceptable”
response determines
the “safe” dose.
Penggunaan Model Dosis-Respons dalam
pendugaan Risiko Non-Karsinogenik
A
C
Modifying
factors are
applied to
the NOAEL
...
NOA
Dose, mg/kg/day
EL
“Safe”
dose
A: Dose-response
curve for threshold
model;
Dose, mg/kg/day
actual
dose
B: using NOAEL to
determine the “safe”
dose;
D
B
. . . to
determine
the “safe”
dose.
“Safe”
dose
8-hr TWA >
PEL
“Safe”
dose
D: actual dose is
compared with the safe
dose (unacceptable).
Dose, mg/kg/day
NOA Dose, mg/kg/day
EL
C: actual dose is
compared with the safe
dose (acceptable);
actual
dose
Improved Exposure Assessment Shrinks Error Bands
A
B
high
mean
new
estimate
mean high
estimate
Dose,
mg/kg/day
mean high
estimate
Dose,
mg/kg/day
A: Dose and risk estimates are conservative; B: shrinking the
error bands around the exposure estimate reduces the risk
estimate.
KARAKTERISASI RISIKO
•
1.
2.
3.
•
RC synthesizes the 3 components of RA
Hazard Identification
Dose – Response Assessment
Exposure Assessment
It estimates the incidence and severity
of potential adverse effects.
KARAKTERISASI RISIKO KESEHATAN
1.
2.
Exposure = pollutant conc./exposure duration
Dose = Exposure X dose factors (absorption rate,
3.
Lifetime individual risk = dose X RC factor
4.
Risk to exposed population = Individual risk X
inhalation rate), body weight or surface area
(noncarcinogenic threshold e.g. NOEL or
severity e.g. NOAEL with uncertainty factors.
# of
exposed population (consider age,
susceptibility..etc)
EXPOSURE EQUATION
• Total exposure (estimated directly or indirectly)
• Duration of exposure (depends on health effects)
– For carcinogenic effects:
• Total hrs or days of exp over lifetime (exp every day would be
25550 dys/lifetime or 70 yrs)
– For non-carcinogenic effects:
• Short term of exp with high concentration
• Chronic exp. Concentration is low and constant over life time
• Exposure period for children:
– 3 Exposure periods (sig difference in body wt, IR & EF):
• 0 – 6 months
• 6 months – 5 years
• 5 – 12 years
DOSE EQUATION
• Dosimetry factors
• Dose (mg/kg/day over a life time) include
exposure from all media
–
–
–
–
–
Air
Water
Food
Soil
Skin contact
Efek Kesehatan Akibat Paparan Lingkungan
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Premature death of many individuals
Premature death of any individual
Severe acute illness or major disability
Chronic debilitating disease
Minor disability
Discomfort
Behavioral changes
Temporary emotional effects
Minor physiological change
Key Concepts - Toxicity (hazard)
Measures of toxicity are a function of two factors:
1. Dose (how much)
2. Duration (how long)
The shorter the exposure, the greater the dose needed to get an effect
Results of toxicity tests expressed as a concentration and exposure
period (eg. 48h LC50)
Also related to a particular exposure media (eg seawater, sediment,
etc) .
Diunduh dari: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/aquaculture/consultations/2012/PMRA-ARLA-eng.htm
Tolerable DI of selected chemicals
On-carcinogen
•
•
•
Copper
Endrin
Lead
•
Mercury: Methyl Hg
Total Hg
Tin
•
Tolerable daily intake (DI)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
0.05 – 0.5 mg/kg/day
1.0 g/kg/day
Adults 7.14 g/kg/day
Infants 3.57 g/kg/day
0.47 g/kg/day
0.71 g/kg/day
2 mg/kg/day
EXPOSURE LIMITS IN RISK ASSESSMENT
• Toxicity Testing is Done on a Substance in Order
to Determine the Hazard which the Substance
may Present to Humans.
• Based on its Toxicity Profile, Exposure Limits
are Established for the Substance.
Selected Standard Default Exposure Factors
Land
Use
Exposure
Pathway
Weight
Daily Intake
Rate
Exposure
Frequency
Exposure
Duration
Body
Residential
ingestion of
portable water
2L
350 days/year
30 years
70 kg
ingestion of soil
200 mg (child)
350 days/year
6 years
15 kg
and dust
100 mg (adult)
24 years
70 kg
inhalation of
contaminants
20 m3 (total)
15 m3 (indoor)
350 days/year
30 years
70 kg
ingestion of
potable water
1L
250 days/year
25 years
70 kg
ingestion of soil
and dust
50 mg
250 days/year
25 years
70 kg
inhalation of
contaminants
200 m3/workday
250 days/year
25 years
70 kg
(child)
(adult)
Industrial
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): Risk Assessment Guidance for
Superfund, Vol. I, Supplemental Guidance, “Standard Default Exposure Factors” (Pub.
9285.6–03). Washington, DC: EPA, 1991.
SUMBER KESALAHAN
DALAM PENDUGAAN RISIKO
• Use of an exp. Study using inappropriate route of
exposure
• Poor specification of Exp. In experimental studies
• Extrapolation high dose to low-dose situations
• Difference in age & life style between experiment and
risk groups
• Exposure to multiple hazards in epidemiological studies
• Potential confounding factors
Limitations of Risk Assessment and RiskBenefit Analysis
• Risk assessment has many built-in uncertainties
and limitations
• Risk assessment depends on toxicology
assessment that have scientific and economic
limitations
• Each additional step in risk assessment and
related risk-benefit analysis also has uncertainties
and economic limitations
PERTANYAAN KUNCI DALAM
PENDUGAAN RISIKO
• How reliable are risk assessment data and models?
• Who profits from allowing certain levels of harmful
chemicals into the environment, and who suffers? Who
decides this?
• Should estimates emphasize short-term risks, or should
more weight be put on long term risks? Who should make
this decision?
• Should the primary goal of risk analysis be to determine
how much risk is acceptable or to figure out how to do the
least damage?
• Who should do a particular risk-benefit analysis or risk
assessment, and who should review the results? A
government agency? Independent scientists? The public?
KONTROVERSI ANALISIS RISIKO
1. Some see risk analysis as a useful and much-needed
tool such as a method in discovering cancer deaths per
year from pollutants.
2. Critics argue that the emphasis should shift from
determining acceptable risk levels to trying to reduce
the risks as much as possible
3. Those critics also accuse industries of favoring risk
analysis because so little is known about health risks
from pollutants and because the data that do exist are
controversial
4. Result is that risk assessment and risk-benefit analysis
can be made to support almost any conclusion.
Calculation of Risk-Based Water Concentration of
Benzene
TR = SFO x C x IRW x EF x ED
BW x AT
C = TR x BW x AT
—————————
SFO x IRW x EF x ED
C = 10-5 x 70 kg x 25,550 days
—————————————
0.029 mg/kg/day x 2 L/day x 350 days/year x 30 years
= 0.03 mg/L
where
TR =
SFO =
C=
IRW =
EF =
ED =
BW =
AT =
target excess individual lifetime cancer risk, unitless, 10-5
oral cancer slope factor, mg/kg/day
concentration, mg/L
daily water ingestion rate, L/day
exposure frequency, 350 days/year
exposure duration, 30 years
body weight, 70 kg
averaging time of 70 years, expressed as 25,550 days
Basic Contents of RA Process
Any acceptable risk assessment process must contain the following
elements:
1. The risk assessment must be concerned with the health problems
that are experienced by the community. A risk assessment for
cancer because that is what the experts know how to do is not
acceptable when miscarriages are the problem.
2. The risk assessment must take into account exposure to multiple
chemicals, which is the real-life situation.
3. The risk assessment must take into account the chemicals that the
community is exposed to in food, air, water, soil, and on the job.
The risk assessments must be additive at the very least.
4. The risk assessment must take into account the most susceptible
parts of the community: the pregnant woman, the babies and
children, the elderly, the already sick.
BAGAIMANA MENGELOLA RISIKO ?
• Once an assessment of risk is made, decision must
be made about what to do about the risk.
• Risk management includes the administrative,
political, and economic actions taken to decide
whether and how to reduce a particular societal
risk to a certain level and at what cost.
KETERLIBATAN PENGELOLAAN RISIKO
1. Which of the vast number of risks facing society
should be evaluated and managed and in what
order or priority with the limited funds available
2. How reliable the risk-benefit analysis or risk
assessment performed for each risk is
3.
Which of the vast number of risks facing society should be
evaluated and managed and in what order or priority with
the limited funds available
Manajemen Risiko
4. How reliable the risk-benefit analysis or risk assessment
performed for each risk is
5. How much risk is acceptable
6. How much money it will take to reduce each risk to an
acceptable level
7. How much each risk will be reduced if available funds are
limited
8. How the risk management plan will be communicated to
the public, monitored, and enforced
Risk Mitigation
1. Measure(s) which can be used to limit exposure
will help decrease risk
2. No or limited exposure, no or limited potential for
effects
3. Conditions/restrictions for registrations
1. Application rates
2. Frequency of application
3. Timing of application
4. Method of application
5. PPE
6. Type of Product Registration (eg: Restricted)
Diunduh dari: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/aquaculture/consultations/2012/PMRA-ARLA-eng.htm
Bgm kita menerima Risiko?
The public generally sees a technology or a product as being
riskier than experts do when:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
It is new or complex rather than familiar
It is perceived as being mostly involuntary
It is viewed as unnecessary rather than as beneficial or
necessary
The people affected are not involved in the decision-making
process from start to finish
Its use does not involve a sincere search for and evaluation of
alternatives
Usually, our perceptions of risk and our responses to
perceived risks often have little to do with how risky Most
people do poorly in assessing relative risks from the hazards
that surround us and society.
However, the most important good news each year is that
about 99.1% of the people on the earth the experts say
something is.
Bgm kita menerima Risiko?
8. Better education and communication about
the nature of risks will help bring the
public’s perceptions of various risks closer
to those of professional risk evaluators
9. However, such education will not eliminate
the emotional, cultural, and ethical factors
that decision makers must take into
account in determining the acceptability of
a particular risk and in evaluating the
possible alternatives.
HASIL-HASIL
PENELITIAN
METODE
ERA
. Environmental risk assessment for pesticides: A tool for
decision making
Antonio Finizio , Sara Villa
Environmental Impact Assessment Review. Volume 22, Issue 3, May 2002, Pages
235–248
Pesticides are widely used to protect crops and to prevent
disease. However, they can also be the cause of environmental
pollution.
Today, ecological policy and management decision makers in
many countries (i.e. EU) require sound scientific information on
the environmental risk associated with pesticides in order to base
and justify their decisions.
Consequently, there is a need to develop predictive tools to
evaluate all potential risks of environmental damage that might be
caused by the use of plant protection products.
This paper analyses and discusses the risk assessment approach
applied in the field of pesticides. The link between environmental
policy, risk assessment and risk management will also be
highlighted.
Diunduh dari:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925502000021……….
6/1/2013
. Environmental risk assessment for pesticides: A tool for
decision making
Antonio Finizio , Sara Villa
Environmental Impact Assessment Review. Volume 22, Issue 3, May 2002, Pages
235–248
Relationship between risk assessment and risk management (modified
from McDonald and Vandenberg, 1998).
Pendugaan
Risiko
Diunduh dari:
Manajemen
Risiko
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925502000021……….
6/1/2013
. Environmental risk assessment for pesticides: A tool for
decision making
Antonio Finizio , Sara Villa
Environmental Impact Assessment Review. Volume 22, Issue 3, May 2002, Pages
235–248
A risk assessment framework (from US EPA, 1996).
Pendugaan Risiko Ekologis
Perencanaan (Dialog
asesor risiko dengan
Manajer risiko)
Formulasi Masalah
Karakterisasi
Paparan
Karakterisasi
Efek Ekologis
Karakterisasi Risiko
Mengkomunikasikan hasil kepada Manajer
Risiko
Manajemen Risiko
Diunduh dari:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925502000021……….
6/1/2013
. Environmental risk assessment for pesticides: A tool for
decision making
Antonio Finizio , Sara Villa
Environmental Impact Assessment Review. Volume 22, Issue 3, May 2002, Pages
235–248
. Scheme of the procedure for evaluating environmental risk distribution
on the territory by integrating risk assessment procedures and GIS
(modified from Calliera et al., 1999).
Karakterisasi
Ekosistem
Sifat FisikaKimia
Dosis aplikasi
Data Aplikasi
Risiko
Ekotoksikol
ogis untuk
ekosistem
non-target
Data toksikologis
untuk organisme
hidup
Diunduh dari:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925502000021……….
6/1/2013
Linking marine fisheries to environmental objectives: a case
study on seafloor integrity under European maritime policies
Heino O. Fock , Matthias Kloppmann , Vanessa Stelzenmüller
Environmental Science & Policy. Volume 14, Issue 3, May 2011, Pages 289–300
Fisheries is regarded a significant impact to the marine
environment, and the management of fisheries under maritime
environmental policies will be an important task for the future.
A relative ecological risk model is applied to define risk
components of gain and loss in relationship to 7 demersal fishing
métiers for the seafloor ecosystem in the German EEZ.
Four scenarios are evaluated against the policy goals from
European maritime policies.
It is shown that two measures combined in an integrative
assessment, i.e. effort reduction to MSY and areal closures, are
likely to meet requirements from 3 environmental policies, i.e. the
Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the Habitats Directive, and
the Common Fisheries Policy.
Sustainability in terms of maximum sustainable yield for fisheries
is likely to provide only partial improvement of the environmental
status of the marine ecosystem.
The implementation into the pressure-state-response framework
of environmental management is discussed.
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901110001607 ……….
6/1/2013
Linking marine fisheries to environmental objectives: a case study
on seafloor integrity under European maritime policies
Heino O. Fock , Matthias Kloppmann , Vanessa Stelzenmüller
Environmental Science & Policy. Volume 14, Issue 3, May 2011, Pages 289–300
(A) Procedural steps for ecological risk assessment (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
1998). (B) Formalizing PSR assessments (left) and the relative ecological risk assessment
referring to the steps problem formulation, analysis and characterization. Some PSR models
approach risk models, so there is a transition from left to right. Note, that ecological state is not an
integral part of the risk model, but for the PSR models.
Formulasi masalah
Penetapan hasil pendugaan
Model KOnseptual
Analisis
Karakterisasi Paparan
Karakterisasi efek ekologis
Karakterisasi Risiko
Kriteria penerimaan Risiko
Formulasi Masalah
Model Konseptual:
Parameter - Indikator
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901110001607 ……….
6/1/2013
. Development of a geography-referenced regional exposure
assessment tool for European rivers—GREAT-ER
T Feijtel , G Boeije , M Matthies , A Young , G Morris , , C Gandolfi, B Hansen , K
Fox , E Matthijs , V Koch , R Schroder , G Cassani , D Schowanek , J Rosenblom
, M Holt
Journal of Hazardous Materials. Volume 61, Issues 1–3, August 1998, Pages 59–65
The objective of the GREAT-ER project is to develop and validate a powerful and
accurate aquatic chemical exposure prediction tool for use within the EU
environmental risk assessment schemes.
Current techniques to estimate regional PECs use a generic multimedia `unit world'
approach and do not account for spatial and temporal variability in landscape
characteristics, river flows and/or chemical emissions. Hence, the results are merely
applicable on a generic screening level since these models do not offer a realistic
prediction of actual steady-state background concentrations. In addition, the default
EU generic regional environment (EU Technical Guidance Documents, 1996) only
allows treatment for 70% of the waste water mass loading, leaving 30% of mass
loading to this generic region untreated.
A new database, model and software system will be developed to calculate the
distribution of predicted environmental concentrations (PEC), both in space and time,
of down the drain chemicals in European surface waters on a river and catchment
area level.
Data on dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand and ammonia will also be used
to assess water quality and to provide data for calibration and validation. The system
will use Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for data storage and visualization,
combined with simple mathematical models for prediction of chemical fate.
Hydrological databases and models will be used to determine flow and dilution data.
This refined exposure assessment tool should greatly enhance the accuracy of
current local and regional exposure estimation methods. The new exposure
assessment methodology will integrate specific environmental information and be
worked out in a geographically-referenced framework, ultimately on a pan-European
scale.
This research project is carried out on behalf of ECETOC, and sponsored by the
Environmental Risk Assessment Steering Committee (ERASM) of the Association
Internationale de la Savonnerie, de la Détergence et des Produits d'Entretien
(A.I.S.E.) and the Comité Européen de Agents de Surface et Intermédiares
Organiques (CESIO) in cooperation with the UK Environment Agency.
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304389498001083……….
6/1/2013
. Development of a geography-referenced regional exposure
assessment tool for European rivers—GREAT-ER
T Feijtel , G Boeije , M Matthies , A Young , G Morris , , C Gandolfi, B Hansen , K
Fox , E Matthijs , V Koch , R Schroder , G Cassani , D Schowanek , J Rosenblom
, M Holt
Journal of Hazardous Materials. Volume 61, Issues 1–3, August 1998, Pages 59–65
. Refinement of generic regional exposure models by using actual discharge
pathway, treatment and river flow data into account.
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304389498001083……….
6/1/2013
Development of a geography-referenced regional exposure
assessment tool for European rivers—GREAT-ER
T Feijtel , G Boeije , M Matthies , A Young , G Morris , , C Gandolfi, B Hansen , K Fox , E
Matthijs , V Koch , R Schroder , G Cassani , D Schowanek , J Rosenblom , M Holt
Journal of Hazardous Materials. Volume 61, Issues 1–3, August 1998, Pages 59–65
Integration of the GREAT-ER methodology.
Demografi
Database
DAS
Tanah,
landuse,
Iklim
Debit
sungai
Model
Hidrologis
Model
Run off DAS
Pengolahan data spatial
Model Jalur-limbah
(Perilaku/
Kualitas)
Model Sungai
(Perilaku/
Kualitas)
Perhitungan & Visualisasi PEC (DAS, Sungai, Regional)
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304389498001083……….
6/1/2013
. Ecological
vulnerability in risk assessment — A review and
perspectives
H.J. De Lange , S. Sala , M. Vighi , J.H. Faber
Science of The Total Environment. Volume 408, Issue 18, 15 August 2010, Pages 3871–3879
This paper reviews the application of ecological vulnerability analysis in
risk assessment and describes new developments in methodology.
For generic non-site-specific assessments (e.g. for the requirements of
most European directives on dangerous chemicals) risk is characterised
just on the basis of the ratio between an effect indicator and an exposure
indicator. However, when the actual risk for a specific ecosystem is
desired, the concept of ecological vulnerability may be more appropriate.
This calls for a change in thinking, from sensitivity at the organism level to
vulnerability at higher organization levels, and thus forms the link from
laboratory toxicology to field effects at population, community or
ecosystem level. To do so, biological and ecological characteristics of the
ecosystems under concern are needed to estimate the ecological
vulnerability.
In this review we describe different vulnerability analysis methods
developed for populations (of a single species), communities (consisting
of different populations of species) and ecosystems (community and
habitat combined). We also give some examples of methods developed
for socio-ecological systems. Aspects that all methods share are the use
of expert judgment, the input of stakeholders, ranking and mapping of the
results, and the qualitative nature of the results.
A new general framework is presented to guide future ecological
vulnerability analysis. This framework can be used as part of ecological
risk assessment, but also in risk management. We conclude that the
further quantification of ecological vulnerability is a valuable contribution to
vulnerability assessment.
Diunduh dari:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969709010985……….
6/1/2013
. Ecological
vulnerability in risk assessment — A review and
perspectives
H.J. De Lange , S. Sala , M. Vighi , J.H. Faber
Science of The Total Environment. Volume 408, Issue 18, 15 August 2010, Pages 3871–3879
Scales and type of stressors of the different vulnerability methods. Methods are
abbreviated as in and .
Biosfer
Daratan
Lanskap
Region
Ekosistem
Habitat /
Komunitas
Populasi
Organisme
Ekologis
Diunduh dari:
Sosio-Ekologis
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969709010985……….
6/1/2013
. Ecological
vulnerability in risk assessment — A review and
perspectives
H.J. De Lange , S. Sala , M. Vighi , J.H. Faber
Science of The Total Environment. Volume 408, Issue 18, 15 August 2010, Pages 3871–3879
General framework for ecological vulnerability assessment for hazard or interaction
of hazards. Bars on top indicate whether physico-chemical characteristics are the
main determinant or biological characteristics or both. Environmental conditions
indicated with the bar below have an influence on all aspects, but are also influenced
by the long-term impact.
Fisiko-Kimia
Biologis
Kerentanan
Dampak
jangka
panjang
Bahaya
Kondisi Lingkungan
Diunduh dari:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969709010985……….
6/1/2013
. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk
assessment: a review
Ron van der Oost , Jonny Beyer , Nico P.E Vermeulen
Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003,
Pages 57–149
Fish bioaccumulation markers may be applied in order to elucidate the
aquatic behavior of environmental contaminants, as bioconcentrators to
identify certain substances with low water levels and to assess exposure
of aquatic organisms.
Since it is virtually impossible to predict the fate of xenobiotic substances
with simple partitioning models, the complexity of bioaccumulation should
be considered, including toxicokinetics, metabolism, biota-sediment
accumulation factors (BSAFs), organ-specific bioaccumulation and bound
residues. Since it remains hard to accurately predict bioaccumulation in
fish, even with highly sophisticated models, analyses of tissue levels are
required.
The most promising fish bioaccumulation markers are body burdens of
persistent organic pollutants, like PCBs and DDTs. Since PCDD and
PCDF levels in fish tissues are very low as compared with the sediment
levels, their value as bioaccumulation markers remains questionable.
Easily biodegradable compounds, such as PAHs and chlorinated phenols,
do not tend to accumulate in fish tissues in quantities that reflect the
exposure. Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) have been
successfully used to mimic bioaccumulation of hydrophobic organic
substances in aquatic organisms.
In order to assess exposure to or effects of environmental pollutants on
aquatic ecosystems, the following suite of fish biomarkers may be
examined: biotransformation enzymes (phase I and II), oxidative stress
parameters, biotransformation products, stress proteins, metallothioneins
(MTs), MXR proteins, hematological parameters, immunological
parameters, reproductive and endocrine parameters, genotoxic
parameters, neuromuscular parameters, physiological, histological and
morphological parameters.
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1382668902001266 ……….
6/1/2013
. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk
assessment: a review
Ron van der Oost , Jonny Beyer , Nico P.E Vermeulen
Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003,
Pages 57–149
All fish biomarkers are evaluated for their potential use in ERA programs,
based upon six criteria that have been proposed in the present paper.
This evaluation demonstrates that phase I enzymes (e.g. hepatic EROD
and CYP1A), biotransformation products (e.g. biliary PAH metabolites),
reproductive parameters (e.g. plasma VTG) and genotoxic parameters
(e.g. hepatic DNA adducts) are currently the most valuable fish
biomarkers for ERA.
The use of biomonitoring methods in the control strategies for chemical
pollution has several advantages over chemical monitoring. Many of the
biological measurements form the only way of integrating effects on a
large number of individual and interactive processes in aquatic organisms.
Moreover, biological and biochemical effects may link the bioavailability of
the compounds of interest with their concentration at target organs and
intrinsic toxicity.
The limitations of biomonitoring, such as confounding factors that are not
related to pollution, should be carefully considered when interpreting
biomarker data. Based upon this overview there is little doubt that
measurements of bioaccumulation and biomarker responses in fish from
contaminated sites offer great promises for providing information that can
contribute to environmental monitoring programs designed for various
aspects of ERA.
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1382668902001266 ……….
6/1/2013
. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk
assessment: a review
Ron van der Oost , Jonny Beyer , Nico P.E Vermeulen
Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003,
Pages 57–149
Schematic representation of the sequential order of responses to pollutant stress
within a biological system. Modified from Bayne et al. (1985).
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1382668902001266 ……….
6/1/2013
. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk
assessment: a review
Ron van der Oost , Jonny Beyer , Nico P.E Vermeulen
Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003,
Pages 57–149
. The principal scheme of responses in organisms to the detrimental
effects of pollutant exposure. Modified from McCarthy et al. (1991).
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1382668902001266 ……….
6/1/2013
. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk
assessment: a review
Ron van der Oost , Jonny Beyer , Nico P.E Vermeulen
Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003,
Pages 57–149
. he relationship among the components of the risk characterization stage of
retrospective assessments based on the process of ecological epidemiology,
including their respective environmental monitoring methods.
Faktor lingkungan yg
memodifikasi
Paparan
Sumber
Faktor lingkungan yg
memodifikasi
Kepekaan
Indikator
Paparan
Indikator
Efek
Sebab-sebab Lainnya
Metode Pemantauan Lingkungan
Monitoring
Kimia
Bioakumulasi
dan Monitoring
efek biologis
Efek biologis,
Pemantauan
kesehatan dan
ekosistem
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1382668902001266 ……….
6/1/2013
. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk
assessment: a review
Ron van der Oost , Jonny Beyer , Nico P.E Vermeulen
Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003,
Pages 57–149
. Bioaccumulation model for aquatic organisms. KOC: sorption coefficient; BCF:
bioconcentration factor; BSAF: biota-sediment accumulation factor; BMF:
biomagnification factor. C refers to a concentration and k to a rate constant. The
subscripts S, W, F, B, EXC and MET refer to sediment, water, food, biota, excretion
and metabolism, respectively. The digestible sediment fraction is considered to be
part of the food. Adapted from Van der Oost et al. (1996a).
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1382668902001266 ……….
6/1/2013
. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk
assessment: a review
Ron van der Oost , Jonny Beyer , Nico P.E Vermeulen
Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003,
Pages 57–149
Possible toxication and detoxification pathways of xenobiotic compounds: (1) direct toxic effect (A);
(2) metabolic activation; (3) formation of a stable metabolite which may cause a toxic effect (C); (4)
detoxification. The reactive metabolite formed by bioactivation (2) may cause a toxic effect (B)
through reaction with critical targets (5) or be detoxified through reaction with a protective agent
(6). Adapted from Timbrell (1991), slightly modified.
SENYAWA ASING
Metabolit
Stabil
Metabolit
Stabil
Efek
Toksik
Ekskresi
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1382668902001266 ……….
6/1/2013
. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk
assessment: a review
Ron van der Oost , Jonny Beyer , Nico P.E Vermeulen
Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003,
Pages 57–149
Simplified presentation of the fate of xenobiotic compounds in the liver cell. Route I,
a possible mechanism for detoxification or toxication, and route II, a possible
mechanism for enzyme induction. AhR, aryl hydrocarbon receptor; HSP90, 90 kDa
heat shock protein; ARNT, Ah receptor nuclear translocator; DREs, dioxin responsive
elements; cyt P450s, cytochrome P450 isozymes; GSTs, glutathione S-transferases;
UDPGTs, UDP-glucuronyl transferases.
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1382668902001266 ……….
6/1/2013
. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk
assessment: a review
Ron van der Oost , Jonny Beyer , Nico P.E Vermeulen
Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003,
Pages 57–149
A theoretical visualization of the relationships between ecological relevance and
time-scales of pollutant-induced biomarker responses. Adapted from Adams et al.
(1989).
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1382668902001266 ……….
6/1/2013
. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk
assessment: a review
Ron van der Oost , Jonny Beyer , Nico P.E Vermeulen
Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003,
Pages 57–149
Linkage between P450 and other biochemical systems.
This figure illustrates the complex interactions that are known to occur between biochemical
systems involved in responses to pollutant exposure.
Further linkages remain to be discovered. AhR, Ah receptor; ALAS, δ-amino-levulinic acid
synthase; ARE, antioxidant responsive element (electrophilic response element); ARNT, Ah
receptor nuclear translocator; BR, bilirubin; BV, biliverdin; CO, carbon monoxide; DRE, dioxin
responsive element; EH, epoxide hydrolase; GSH, glutathione; GST, glutathione S-transferase;
HAH, halogenated aromatic hydrocarbon; HO, heme oxygenase; HQ, hydroquinone; HSF, heat
shock factor; HSP90, 90 kDa heat shock protein; HSRE, heat shock response element; M, metal;
MRE, metal responsive element; MRF, metal response factor; MT, metallothionein; NO, nitric oxide;
NOS, nitric oxide synthase; cyt P450, cytochrome P450; PP, protoporphyrin; Q, quinone; QR,
quinone reductase (a.k.a. DT-diaphorase); SOD, superoxide dismutase; SQ, semiquinone radical;
XRE, xenobiotic response element. Adapted from Stegeman and Hahn (1994)
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1382668902001266 ……….
6/1/2013
. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk
assessment: a review
Ron van der Oost , Jonny Beyer , Nico P.E Vermeulen
Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003,
Pages 57–149
The complexity of stress–response relationships. The dose–response paradigm,
although necessarily simple for experimental practice, does not adequately account
for the multiple, simultaneous stressors to which all species are subjected in natural
environments. Adapted from Power and McCarty (1997).
Stress - Cekaman
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1382668902001266 ……….
6/1/2013
. Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a
contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk reduction and
life cycle impact of remediation
Gitte Lemming , Julie C. Chambon , Philip J. Binning , Poul L. Bjerg.
Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages 392–403
A comparative life cycle assessment is presented for four different
management options for a trichloroethene-contaminated site with a
contaminant source zone located in a fractured clay till. The compared
options are (i) long-term monitoring (ii) in-situ enhanced reductive
dechlorination (ERD), (iii) in-situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) with
permanganate and (iv) long-term monitoring combined with treatment by
activated carbon at the nearby waterworks.
The life cycle assessment included evaluation of both primary and
secondary environmental impacts. The primary impacts are the local
human toxic impacts due to contaminant leaching into groundwater that is
used for drinking water, whereas the secondary environmental impacts
are related to remediation activities such as monitoring, drilling and
construction of wells and use of remedial amendments. The primary
impacts for the compared scenarios were determined by a numerical risk
assessment and remedial performance model, which predicted the
contaminant mass discharge over time at a point of compliance in the
aquifer and at the waterworks. The combined assessment of risk
reduction and life cycle impacts showed that all management options
result in higher environmental impacts than they remediate, in terms of
person equivalents and assuming equal weighting of all impacts. The
ERD and long-term monitoring were the scenarios with the lowest
secondary life cycle impacts and are therefore the preferred alternatives.
However, if activated carbon treatment at the waterworks is required in
the long-term monitoring scenario, then it becomes unfavorable because
of large secondary impacts. ERD is favorable due to its low secondary
impacts, but only if leaching of vinyl chloride to the groundwater aquifer
can be avoided. Remediation with ISCO caused the highest secondary
impacts and cannot be recommended for the site.
Diunduh dari:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479712003982……….
6/1/2013
. Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a
contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk
reduction and life cycle impact of remediation
Gitte Lemming , Julie C. Chambon , Philip J. Binning , Poul L.
Bjerg.
Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages
392–403
Concept for combined evaluation of remedial performance, risk assessment and life
cycle assessment. POC: Point of compliance. WW: Waterworks.
Diunduh dari:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479712003982……….
6/1/2013
. Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a
contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk
reduction and life cycle impact of remediation
Gitte Lemming , Julie C. Chambon , Philip J. Binning , Poul L.
Bjerg.
Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages
392–403
Location of the Sortebrovej site and water supply wells in Tommerup. The transect
runs along the groundwater flow direction and shows the initial aqueous TCE
concentrations [μg/L] and the conceptual local geology and fracture setup used in the
model. POC: Point of compliance for assessing groundwater quality criteria. The
point is located 100 m downstream of the site.
Diunduh dari:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479712003982……….
6/1/2013
. Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a
contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk
reduction and life cycle impact of remediation
Gitte Lemming , Julie C. Chambon , Philip J. Binning , Poul L.
Bjerg.
Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages
392–403
System boundaries of the life cycle assessment.
Diunduh dari:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479712003982……….
6/1/2013
. Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a
contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk
reduction and life cycle impact of remediation
Gitte Lemming , Julie C. Chambon , Philip J. Binning , Poul L.
Bjerg.
Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages
392–403
Model results showing the (a) contaminant mass in the treatment zone, (b)
contaminant concentrations at the POC in the groundwater aquifer 100 m
downstream of the source (sum of TCE, DCE and VC), and (c) VC concentrations at
100 m. Note the different scales on the y-axes.
Diunduh dari:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479712003982……….
6/1/2013
. Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a
contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk
reduction and life cycle impact of remediation
Gitte Lemming , Julie C. Chambon , Philip J. Binning , Poul L.
Bjerg.
Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages
392–403
(a) Contaminant concentrations at the waterworks (sum of TCE, DCE and VC), and
(b) Individual waterworks concentrations of TCE, DCE and VC for ERD (low rate).
Diunduh dari:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479712003982……….
6/1/2013
. A priori assessment of ecotoxicological risks linked
to building a hospital
Yves Perrodin , Bazin Christine , Bony Sylvie , Devaux Alain , BertrandKrajewski Jean-Luc , Cren-Olivé Cécile , Roch Audrey , Brelot Elodie.
Chemosphere. Volume 90, Issue 3, January 2013, Pages 1037–1046
Hospital wastewaters contain a large number of chemical
pollutants such as disinfectants, detergents, and drug residues.
A part of these pollutants is not eliminated by traditional urban
waste water treatment plants, leading to a major risk for the
aquatic ecosystems receiving these effluents. After having
formulated a specific methodology in order to assessment
ecotoxicological risk for such a situation, we applied it to the
project to build a new hospital shared by several towns in the
French Alps.
This methodology is based on the ecotoxicological
characterisation of the hospital wastewater using a battery of
three chronic bioassays (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata,
Heterocypris incongruens and Brachionus calyciflorus) and of
genotoxicity tests (Ames fluctuation assay on Salmonella
typhimurium, and a Fpg-modified comet assay on the trout liver
cell line RTL-W1).
The formulated methodology highlights a moderate risk of the
hospital wastewater for the organisms of the water column of the
river concerned. Nevertheless, this discharge contributes
significantly to the global ecotoxicological risk when taking into
account all the releases of the watershed into the river.
This leads to recommending the implementation of a specific
treatment system in the urban WWTP, or upstream to it, in view to
protecting the aquatic organisms.
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0045653512011009 ……….
6/1/2013
. A priori assessment of ecotoxicological risks linked
to building a hospital
Yves Perrodin , Bazin Christine , Bony Sylvie , Devaux Alain , BertrandKrajewski Jean-Luc , Cren-Olivé Cécile , Roch Audrey , Brelot Elodie.
Chemosphere. Volume 90, Issue 3, January 2013, Pages 1037–1046
General diagram of ecological risk assessment (US EPA, 1998).
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0045653512011009 ……….
6/1/2013
. A priori assessment of ecotoxicological risks linked
to building a hospital
Yves Perrodin , Bazin Christine , Bony Sylvie , Devaux Alain , BertrandKrajewski Jean-Luc , Cren-Olivé Cécile , Roch Audrey , Brelot Elodie.
Chemosphere. Volume 90, Issue 3, January 2013, Pages 1037–1046
Presentation of the studied scenario. With: S: Source of pollution studied (hospital
effluent), C1: Environmental target no. 1 to be preserved (river), C2: Environmental
target no. 2 to be preserved (groundwater). T1, T2 and T3: Transfers of pollutants
between the source and the environmental targets.
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0045653512011009 ……….
6/1/2013
. A priori assessment of ecotoxicological risks linked
to building a hospital
Yves Perrodin , Bazin Christine , Bony Sylvie , Devaux Alain , BertrandKrajewski Jean-Luc , Cren-Olivé Cécile , Roch Audrey , Brelot Elodie.
Chemosphere. Volume 90, Issue 3, January 2013, Pages 1037–1046
Conceptual model of the scenario studied.
Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0045653512011009 ……….
6/1/2013
Secondary Poisoning Risk Assessment of Birds and
Mammals Exposed to Nickel in Their Diets
The conceptual approach to conducting the environment section of the
EU risk assessment of nickel included the following steps :
1. Emmissions of nickel and nickel compounds to the environment were
quantified for the whole life cycle, i.e., from production, use, and
disposal;
2. Concentrations of nickel resulting from these emissions were
determined in relevant environmental
media (water, sediment, soil, tissue) at local and regional scales
(PECs);
3. Critical effects concentrations (PNECs) were determined for each of
the relevant environmental media;
4. Exposure concentrations were compared to critical effects
concentrations for each of the relevant environmental media (risk
characterization); and
5. Appropriate corrective actions (also described as risk management)
were identified for situations where exposure concentrations were
greater than critical effects concentrations. Where exposure
concentrations were below critical effects concentrations, there was
no need for concern or action.
Diunduh dari: http://www.nipera.org/en/EnvironmentalScience/FS6SecondaryPoisoningBirdsMammals.aspx ………. 6/1/2013
Secondary Poisoning Risk Assessment of Birds and
Mammals Exposed to Nickel in Their Diets
Schematic overview of the different steps
involved in the EU environmental risk assessment
Diunduh dari: http://www.nipera.org/en/EnvironmentalScience/FS6SecondaryPoisoningBirdsMammals.aspx ………. 6/1/2013
Zhen Chen, Sukulpat Khumpaisal, (2009)
"AN ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS FOR RISKS ASSESSMENT IN
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT",
Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Vol. 27 Iss: 3, pp.238 - 258
The purpose of this paper is to introduce a novel decision-making
approach to risks assessment in commercial real estate
development against social, economic, environmental, and
technological (SEET) criteria. It therefore aims to describe a
multiple criteria decision-making model based on analytic network
process (ANP) theory, and to use an experimental case study on
an urban regeneration project in Liverpool to demonstrate the
effectiveness of the ANP model.
The paper commences with a description about risks related to
commercial real estate development, and provides a list of risk
assessment criteria based on literature review and experience in
related areas. The ANP is then introduced as a powerful
multicriteria decision-making method. An experimental case study
is finally conducted with scenarios and assumptions based on a
real urban regeneration project in Liverpool.
The paper defines a group of risks assessment criteria against
SEET requirements directly related to commercial real estate
development. An ANP model is set up with 29 risks assessment
criteria, and results from an experimental case study reveal that
the ANP method is effective to support decision-making based on
risks assessment to select the most appropriate development
plan; and therefore it is applicable in commercial area.
Diunduh dari:
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1789800&show=html……….
Zhen Chen, Sukulpat Khumpaisal, (2009)
"AN ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS FOR RISKS
ASSESSMENT IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
DEVELOPMENT",
Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Vol. 27 Iss: 3, pp.238 - 258
Diunduh dari:
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1789800&show=html……….