STUDY FOR THE EU27
by
Aalborg University
Halmstad University
David Connolly
Brian Vad Mathiesen
Poul Alberg Østergaard
Bernd Möller
Steffen Nielsen
Henrik Lund
Urban Persson
Daniel Nilsson
Sven Werner
Ecofys Germany GmbH
PlanEnergi
Jan Grözinger
Thosmas Boersmans
Michelle Bosquet
Daniel Trier
for
Heat Roadmap Europe 2050
Presented by:
name
Why this study?
the heating and cooling sector has largely
been overlooked in all European Commission
scenarios exploring the energy future towards
2030 and 2050.
This study focuses on the future European
heat and cooling market and its importance in
terms of cost-savings, job creation,
investments, and a smarter energy system.
The EU is wasting
energy (heat)…
Energy Balance for the EU27 in 2010 (EJ)
80
70
60
Non-specified
50
Non-energy use
40
Transport
30
Electricity
Heat for Industry
20
Heat for Buildings
10
0
Primary Energy
Supply
Final Consumption
End Use
… and over 6000 DH
systems already exist in the EU
The study
Two Reports:
HRE I (2012): Is DHC beneficial in
a business-as-usual scenario?
HRE II (2013): Is DHC beneficial in
a low-heat demand scenario?
Methology
GIS Mapping
Energy System
BAU
(References)
District Heating
Demands
District Heating
Alternatives
District Heating
Resources
Results (PES,
CO2, Costs)
Many Energy
Sources






Urban areas (Heating Demands)
Power and Heat Generation
Waste Management
Industrial waste heat potential
Geothermal heat
Solar Thermal
the study indicates that the
market shares for district
heating for buildings can be
increased to 30% in 2030 and
50% in 2050.
Energy System
Analyse Model
Hydro water
Hydro
storage
Hydro
power plant
Electricity
storage
system
Import/
Export
fixed and
variable
Electricity
demand
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
RES
electricity
Cooling
device
PP
Fuel
Heat
pump and
electric
boiler
CHP
Boiler
Heat
demand
Heat
storage
RES heat
H2 storage
Cooling
demand
Electrolyser
Transport
demand
Cars
Industry
Process
heat
demand
HRE I (2012)
Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a
business-as-usual scenario?
HRE I (2012)
Year 2030 & 2050:
Steps 1 & 2
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
IEA
EP CPI
HRE
EP CPI
HRE
12% DH 10% DH 30% DH 10% DH 50% DH
with RE
with RE
2010
2030
2050
Existing CHP & DH
EU Energy
Roadmap
2050
Additional CHP & DH
Biomass
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
District Heating Production for Heating Buildings
from 2010 to 2050
Nuclear
CO2 Emission
District Heating Production (TWh)
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
CO2 Emissions (Mt)
Primary Energy Supply (TWh)
Primary Energy Supply & CO2 for Heating Buildings from 2010 to
2050
EP CPI vs. HRE RE
1 800
1 600
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
Boiler
Solar thermal
Geothermal heat
Heat pumps
Waste incineration
2010
2030
2050
Present 30% DH & 50% DH &
12% DH
RE
RE
IEA
HRE
Industrial surplus heat
Additional CHP
Existing CHP
HRE I (2012)
Cost and Jobs
 In total cost are
reduced by 14 Billion
EUR in 2050
 Additional
investments of a total
of 500 billion EUR
 Additional jobs from
to 2013 to 2050:
8-9 million man-year
in total
Approx. 220,000 jobs.
Annual EU27 Costs for Heating Buildings from 2010
to 2050
Annual Heating Building Costs
(Billion Euro)
 Saved fuel costs
of annual approx.
30 Billion EUR in 2050
Fuel
Fixed operation costs
Annual investment costs
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
IEA
2010
EP CPI
HRE RE
2030
EP CPI
HRE RE
2050
HRE I (2012)
HRE I Conclusion:
50% DH and CHP
 Decrease primary energy supply and
especially fossil fuels and CO2
LESS FUEL
emissions
 Decrease annual costs of energy in
Europe by approximately €14 Billion
in 2050
LESS MONEY
 Create additional 220,000 jobs over
the period 2013-2050
MORE EU JOBS
 Further integration of RES
MORE RE
HRE I (2012)
HRE II (2013)
Is DHC beneficial for the EU
energy system in a low-heat
demand scenario?
Is DHC a good idea if we
implement a lot of energy
efficiency in the buildings?
HRE II (2013)
District Heating Supply for Residential and
Services Buildings (TWh/year)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE
DH Supply
1 800
1 600
1 400
Industry
1 200
Waste
1 000
Geothermal
800
Solar
600
Heat Pumps
400
Boiler
200
CHP
0
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2030
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2050
HRE II (2013)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:
Primary Energy Supply &
CO2
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Waste
RES
18 000
3 000
15 000
2 500
12 000
2 000
9 000
1 500
6 000
1 000
3 000
500
0
0
EU-EE
(13% DH)
HRE-EE
(30% DH)
2030
EU-EE
(13% DH)
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (X, Mt/year)
Primary Energy Supply (TWh/year)
Nuclear
HRE-EE
(50% DH)
2050
HRE II (2013)
Total Costs for Heating and Cooling in the
Residential and Services Sectors (B€/year)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:
Heat & Cooling Costs -15%
End-Use Energy Efficiency Investments
Cooling System Investments
Fuel
Heating System Investments
Centralised Electricity & Heat Plants
CO2
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
EU-EE
(13% DH)
HRE-EE
(30% DH)
EU-EE
(13% DH)
HRE-EE
(50% DH)
HRE II (2013)
Renewables and
Energy Efficiency
Additional Renewables
 100 TWh Geothermal
 100 TWh large-scale solar
 65 TWh wind (due to a
smarter energy system)
Context: 2050 total
heat is 2600 TWh
Energy Efficiency
 Demand side is extremely
important, but eventually it
will become expensive
 Supply side also has many
options:
 PP converted to CHP
 100 TWh surplus industrial
heat
 200 TWh heat from waste
incineration
HRE II (2013)
Main Conclusions
District heating is an attractive solution in
areas with a high heat density
District heating can be compatible and
competitive with energy efficiency measures
Heat reductions in buildings can be combined
with district heating at lower cost
HRE I Conclusions
If we continue under a
business-as-usual scenario,
then district heating can:
Reduce the PES
Reduce the CO2 emissions
Reduce the costs of the
energy system
Creation of local jobs
Use more renewable energy
HRE II Conclusions
If we implement ambitious
energy efficiency measures, then
district heating will:
Meet the same goals:
Utilise the same amount of fossil fuels
Enable the same CO2 emission
reductions
BUT, Cost approximately 15% less
HRE III
HRE III - 20??
Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a ???
scenario?
RESEARCH TO BE CONTINUED…
Develop national plans that connect the local
(mapping) and EU (modelling) results.
Optimise the EU energy system by reducing baseload
electricity and developing more smart energy system
technologies
Create an electric heating scenario for the EU27
Thank you
Need a copy of the report?
 www.heatroadmap.eu