Heat Roadmap Europe
2050
STUDY
FOR
THE
EU27
STUDY
FOR
THE
EU27
by
Aalborg University
Halmstad University
David Connolly
Brian Vad Mathiesen
Poul Alberg Østergaard
Bernd Möller
Steffen Nielsen
Henrik Lund
Urban Persson
Daniel Nilsson
Sven Werner
Ecofys Germany GmbH
PlanEnergi
Jan Grözinger
Thosmas Boersmans
Michelle Bosquet
Daniel Trier
for
Why this study?
The heating and cooling sector has largely
been overlooked in all scenarios exploring the
energy future towards 2050.
This study focuses on the future European
heat and cooling market and its importance in
terms of cost-savings, job creation,
investments, and a smarter energy system
Existing Studies
Existing
reports:
Generalscenario
Consensus:
”Combined heat & power (CHP) and
Fail
to provide
proper
analysis
district
heating (DH)
are important”
of heating and cooling
Have a too low time and geographical resolution to model
. . . but fail to quantify to which extent
the realitiesthese
of the
energy
market,
DHC
options
can be
used in especially
the
future energy system . . .
Acknowledge
the importance of DHC until 2030/2050, but
Assume high shares of electric heating, low heat
The European
Commission in theand
Energylow
Roadmap
2050 communication:
consumption,
shares
of DHC by 2050
“An analysis of more ambitious energy efficiency measures and costoptimal policy is required. Energy efficiency has to follow its economic
potential. This includes questions on to what extent urban and spatial
planning can contribute to saving energy in the medium and long term;
how to find the cost-optimal policy choice between insulating buildings to
use less heating and cooling and systematically using the waste heat of
electricity generation in combined heat and power plants.”
The EU is wasting energy (heat)...
Energy Balance for the EU27 in 2010 (EJ)
80
70
60
Non-specified
Non-energy use
Transport
Electricity
Heat for Industry
Heat for Buildings
50
40
30
20
10
0
Primary Energy
Supply
Final Consumption
End Use
… while >70% of EU
citizens live in Urban Areas…
… and 6000 District Heating
systems already exist in the EU
What is this Study?
Two Reports:
Pre-study 1 (2012): is DHC
beneficial in a business-as-usual
scenario
Pre-study 2 (2013): is DHC
beneficial in a low-heat demand
scenario
Methodology
GIS Mapping
Energy System Modelling
BAU
(References)
District Heating
Demands
District Heating
Alternatives
District Heating
Resources
Results (PES,
CO2, Costs)
GIS Mapping:
Many Heat Sources






Urban areas (Heating Demands)
Power and Heat Generation
Waste Management
Industrial waste heat potential
Geothermal heat
Solar Thermal
the study indicates that the
market shares for district
heating for buildings can be
increased to 30% in 2030 and
50% in 2050.
Energy Systems Analyses Model
Hydro water
Hydro
storage
Hydro
power plant
Electricity
storage
system
Import/
Export
fixed and
variable
Electricity
demand
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
RES
electricity
Cooling
device
PP
Fuel
Heat
pump and
electric
boiler
CHP
Boiler
Heat
demand
Heat
storage
RES heat
H2 storage
Cooling
demand
Electrolyser
Transport
demand
Cars
Industry
Process
heat
demand
Pre-Study 1
(2012)
Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy
system in a business-as-usual
scenario?
2010 Modelling
IEA Data
2010 Model
IEA Statistics
District Heating
Alternatives
Ref = 12% DH
2010 = 30% DH
2010= 50% DH
Results
(PES, CO2, Costs)
District Heating Benefits in 2 steps
Step 1: (Energy Efficiency)
- Increasing DH to 30% then 50%
- Increasing CHP
- Using Oil/Natural gas in CC-CHP
Step 2: (Utilise waste and RE sources)
- Industrial waste heat
- Waste incineration
- Geothermal heat
- Large-scale Solar Thermal
Year 2010
Step 1: Energy Efficiency
EU27 Primary Energy Supply and CO2 for Heating Buildings
3,500
700
3,000
600
2,500
500
2,000
400
1,500
300
1,000
200
500
100
0
0
Present 12%
30% DH
50% DH
Existing CHP & DH
Additional CHP & DH
Biomass
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
CO2 Emissions
DH
IEA
CO2 Emissions (Mt)
Primary Energy Supply (TWh)
in 2010 at Different DH Penetrations
HRE
Year 2010
Step 2: Utilise Resources
3,500
700
3,000
600
2,500
500
2,000
400
1,500
300
1,000
200
500
100
0
0
Present 30% DH 50% DH
12% DH with RE with RE
IEA
HRE
CO2 Emission (Mt)
Primary Energy Supply (TWh)
EU27 Primary Energy Supply & CO2 for Heating
Buildings in 2010 at Different DH Penetrations while
also Utilising RE Resources
Existing CHP & DH
Additional CHP & DH
Biomass
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
CO2-emissions
Year 2010
Total Energy Supply
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
7% reduction in Primary Energy Supply
1,000
13% reduction in fossil fuels
500
0
Present 12% DH
30% DH with RE 50% DH with RE
17% reduction
in CO2-emissions
IEA
HRE
CO2 Emissions (Mt)
Primary Energy Supply (TWh)
EU27 Primary Energy Supply & CO2 in 2010 at Different DH
Penetrations while also Utilising RE Resources
Other renewable
Biomass
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
CO2 Emissions
What is a Business-asUsual Scenario?
Energy Roadmap 2050
Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by
the National Technical University in Athens
Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27:
Reference: Business-as-usual
CPI: Updated business-as-usual
EE: Energy Efficiency
CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage
Nuclear
High Renewable Energy
Designing the DHC Alternatives
EU CPI
PRIMES Data
2030 & 2050 Model
EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Current Policy Initiatives (CPI)
District Heating
Alternatives
2010 = 12% DH
2030 = 30% DH
2050= 50% DH
Results
(PES, CO2, Costs)
Year 2030 & 2050:
Steps 1 & 2
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
IEA EP CPI HRE EP CPI HRE
12% DH 10% DH 30% DH 10% DH 50% DH
with RE
with RE
2010
2030
2050
EU Energy
Roadmap
2050
Existing CHP & DH
Additional CHP & DH
Biomass
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
District Heating Production for Heating
Buildings from 2010 to 2050
Nuclear
CO2 Emission
District Heating Production (TWh)
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
CO2 Emissions (Mt)
Primary Energy Supply (TWh)
Primary Energy Supply & CO2 for Heating Buildings from
2010 to 2050
EP CPI vs. HRE RE
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Boiler
Solar thermal
Geothermal heat
Heat pumps
Waste incineration
2010
Present
12% DH
IEA
2030
30% DH
& RE
2050
50% DH
& RE
HRE
Industrial surplus heat
Additional CHP
Existing CHP
Year 2030 & 2050:
Total Energy Supply
20,000
4000
18,000
3600
16,000
3200
14,000
2800
12,000
2400
10,000
HRE 2050 compared to EU CPI 2050: 2000
8,000
1600
6,000
5% reduction in Primary Energy Supply
4,000
1200
800
10% reduction in fossil fuels
2,000
0
2010
13% reduction in CO2-emissions
EP CPI
10% DH
HRE
30% DH
with RE
2030
EP CPI
10% DH
HRE
50% DH
with RE
2050
Other Renewables
Biomass
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
CO2 Emissions
400
0
IEA
12% DH
CO2-emissions (Mt)
EU Energy
Roadmap
2050
Primary Energy Supply (TWh)
EU27 Primary Energy Supply & CO2 from 2010 to 2050
EP CPI vs HRE RE
Cost and Jobs
 In total cost are
reduced by 14 Billion
EUR in 2050
 Additional
investments of a total
of 500 billion EUR
 Additional jobs from
to 2013 to 2050:
8-9 million man-year
in total
Approx. 220,000 jobs.
Annual EU27 Costs for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050
Fuel
Annual Heating Building Costs
(Billion Euro)
 Saved fuel costs
of annual approx.
30 Billion EUR in 2050
Fixed operation costs
Annual investment costs
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
IEA
2010
EP CPI
HRE RE
2030
EP CPI
HRE RE
2050
HRE1 Conclusion: 50% DH and CHP
 Decrease primary energy supply and
LESSfuels
FUEL and CO2
especially fossil
emissions
 Decrease annual costs of energy in
LESS MONEY
Europe by approximately
€14 Billion
in 2050
 Create additional
jobs over
MORE EU220,000
JOBS
the period 2013-2050
 Further integration
of RES
MORE RE
Pre-Study 2
(2013)
Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy
system in a low-heat demand
scenario?
Future: EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Completed for the European Commission in 2011,
by the National Technical University in Athens
HRE2: Is district heating a good idea if we implement a lot of energy
efficiency in the buildings?
Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27:
Reference: Business-as-usual
CPI: Updated business-as-usual
Energy Efficiency (EU-EE)
Carbon Capture & Storage
Nuclear
High Renewable Energy
Energy Modelling
EU-EE
PRIMES Data
2030 & 2050 Model
EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Energy Efficiency (EE)
District Heating
Alternatives
2010 = 12% DH
2030 = 30% DH
2050= 50% DH
Results
(PES, CO2, Costs)
Key Measures in
the EU-EE Scenario
 High renovation rates for existing buildings due to
better/more financing and planned obligations for public
buildings (more than 2% refurbishment per year)
 Passive houses standards after 2020
 Obligation of utilities to achieve energy savings in their
customers' energy use over 1.5% per year (up to 2020)
 Strong minimum requirements for energy generation,
transmission and distribution including obligation that
existing energy generation installations are upgraded to the
CPI vs. EE
Gross Inland Consumption (TWh)
20,000
16,000
12,000
RES
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Solids
8,000
4,000
0
CPI
EE
2010
CPI
EE
2030
CPI
EE
2050
Electricity in the EE Scenario
EE 2010
CPI 2050
EE 2050
70
64
Percentage (%)
60
50
40
49
45 45
40
30
20
28
25
15
21
18
20
14
8
10
0
21
0
Efficiency for CHP indicator (% CCS indicator (%
nuclear in
renewable energy
thermal
of electricity
of electricity
electricity
in electricity
electricity
from CHP)
from CCS)
generation (%) generation (%)
production (%)
EU-EE Scenario
Heat Demand Concerns
EU-CPI Scenario
Space and Hot Water Heat Demands (TWh/year)
Hot water demand
decreases by 50%
between 2010 and
2050
Specific Heat
Demands reduce by
70% between 2010
and 2050
EU-EE Scenario
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Energy Efficiency Costs
EU-EE Scenario 63% Drop in Heat Demands
Cost B€300/year 2010-2050
Additional Cost of Energy Efficiency
Measures (€/kWh Saved)
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Heat Demand Reduction (%)
60%
70%
80%
HRE-EE Hot Water Growth = +16%
 Residential and non-residential buildings is expected to grow by
32% and 42% respectively between 2015 and 2050
 Population will grow by 3.2% between 2010 and 2050.
 Individuals are likely to take more showers and baths in the future
than they do today.
 People are not expected to live with one another as much in the
future.
 At present, there are regions in Europe where the use of hot water
is limited due to technical and financial limitations.
HRE-EE Space Heating = -47%
Space Heating Demand (TWh/year)
3500
3000
Shallow Renovation
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Target Scenario Shallow Renovation
+ REN
Target Scenario Deep Renovation
Implementing District Heating
1. Individual boilers are replaced by district
heating:
30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050
Individual heat pumps are not replaced
2. Individual cooling units are replaced with district
cooling.
10% in 2030 and 20% in 2050
Natural cooling and absorption heat pumps are both
used.
Heat Demand by Source
4,000
3,500
Heat Demands (TWh/year)
3,000
Geothermal
Heat Pumps
2,500
Direct Electricity
Solar
2,000
Biomass
Gas
1,500
Oil
1,000
Solids
District Heating
500
0
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2030
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2050
Implementing District Heating
3. New DH production facilities are constructed:
CHP, boilers, heat pumps, and thermal storage.
4. Additional resources can now be utilised by the
district heating network:
Industrial surplus heat: 100 TWh/year
Direct geothermal heat: 100 TWh/year
Waste incineration: 150 TWh/year
Large-scale solar thermal: 100 TWh/year
Wind power for large-scale heat pumps: 65 TWh/year
Heat Resources
Potential:
Power Plants = 2000 TWh
Industry surplus heat = 750 TWh
Large-scale solar thermal = 350 TWh
Waste = 200 TWh
Geothermal = 120 TWh
Large-scale heat pumps = ?
Biomass heat = ?
Total Heat Demand in the EU in 2010 = 3300 TWh
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE
Additional Resources
Heat Available from Unconventional
Resources due to District Heating*
(TWh/year)
Industry
Waste Incineration^
Geothermal
Large-Scale Solar
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2030
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2050
District Heating Supply for Residential and
Services Buildings (TWh/year)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE DH Supply
1,800
1,600
1,400
Industry
Waste
Geothermal
Solar
Heat Pumps
Boiler
CHP
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2030
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2050
Results
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:
Primary Energy Supply & CO2
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Waste
RES
18,000
3,000
15,000
2,500
12,000
2,000
9,000
1,500
6,000
1,000
3,000
500
0
0
EU-EE
(13% DH)
HRE-EE
(30% DH)
2030
EU-EE
(13% DH)
HRE-EE
(50% DH)
2050
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (X, Mt/year)
Primary Energy Supply (TWh/year)
Nuclear
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:
Fossil Fuels
Coal
Oil
Gas
18,000
3,000
15,000
2,500
12,000
2,000
9,000
1,500
6,000
1,000
3,000
500
0
0
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2030
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2050
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (X, Mt/year)
Primary Energy Supply (TWh/year)
Nuclear
Total Costs for Heating and Cooling in the
Residential and Services Sectors (B€/year)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:
Heat & Cooling Costs -15%
End-Use Energy Efficiency Investments
Cooling System Investments
Fuel
Heating System Investments
Centralised Electricity & Heat Plants
CO2
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
EU-EE
(13% DH)
HRE-EE
(30% DH)
2030
EU-EE
(13% DH)
HRE-EE
(50% DH)
2050
Renewables and Energy Efficiency
Additional Renewables
 100 TWh Geothermal
 100 TWh large-scale solar
 65 TWh wind (due to a
smarter energy system)
Context: 2050 total
heat is 2600 TWh
Energy Efficiency
 Demand side is extremely
important, but eventually it
will become expensive
 Supply side also has many
options:
 PP converted to CHP
 100 TWh surplus industrial
heat
 200 TWh heat from waste
incineration
Case Study: Århus
Legend
District heating area
Built up areas
Aarhus municipality
Case Study
Conclusions
District heating is an attractive solution in areas
with a high heat density
District heating can be seen as an efficiency
measure similar to reductions in heat demand,
because it enables the use of fuels in a more
efficient way
Heat reductions in buildings can be combined
with district heating so that it is competitive with
individual solutions
HRE1 Conclusions
If we continue under a
business-as-usual scenario,
then district heating can:
Reduce the PES
Reduce the CO2 emissions
Reduce the costs of the
energy system
Use more renewable energy
HRE2 Conclusions
If we implement a lot of energy
efficiency measures, then district
heating will:
Meet the same goals:
Utilise the same amount of fossil fuels
Enable the same CO2 emission
reductions
BUT, Cost approximately 10% less
Study 3?
(20??)
Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy
system in a ??? scenario?
Research To Be Continued…
Develop national plans that connect the
local (mapping) and EU (modelling)
results.
Optimise the EU energy system by
reducing baseload electricity and
developing more smart energy system
technologies
4th Generation District Heating:
http://www.4dh.dk/
Benefits of District Heating
 Improves the efficiency of the system (CHP, O&M, etc.)
 Creates short-term and long-term flexibility
 Enables more renewable energy resources and surplus
heat to be utilised
 Reduces the thermal capacity necessary
 Increases the comfort-levels for the end-user
Thank you
Need a copy of the report?
www.heatroadmap.eu
www.4dh.dk/hre