Hassan Harajli UNDP CEDRO Project EcOrient - June 7th 2012 Table of Contents What has been done and/or assessed by CEDRO Mapping renewables through CEDRO Was it enough and/or will it last; The legacy of CEDRO What should be done next? 2 1- Assessment of Large-scale RE Sources; Wind Solar Hydro The main options? 3 Bioenergy Geothermal 1- WIND: Onshore and Offshore 4 Onshore WIND Prospects When all areas where wind farms cannot be developed are removed; High population density Military areas Commercial interests (e.g. mining / fishing… Civilian aviation sites National parks and forests Historic sites … Where wind speeds are greater than 6.5 m/s (@80 m hub height) Assuming an installation density of 8 MW/km2 Results; 6 Mean 6.1 GW Maximum 12 GW Min 1.5 GW Economics of wind Av. LC (5% DR) Av. LC (10% DR) DR) Benefits of wind power integration as factor of discount rate, fuel prices, and the social cost of carbon 7 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) CEDRO has completed a concise update on CSP technology. The document can be downloaded soon from CEDRO’s website Proper solar resource assessment is being undertaken by RECREE (SolarMed) project for the region 8 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Direct Normal Irradiance The higher the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI), the more power is generated by a particular technology Technical feasibility limit: 1800 kWh/m2/y Economic feasibility limit: 2000 kWh/m2/y 9 Solar CSP in Lebanon Slope + Water + DNI Potential is there, therefore CSP is a matter of financial viability! 11 LEC: levelised electricity costs (solar-only) CR - 20 MW + 0.5 h storage (As PS-20) - DAGGET CR - 20 MW + 0.5 h storage (As PS-20) - HERMEL C entral R ec eiv er WIT H 15 h S torag e CR - 20 MW + 0.5 h storage (As PS-20) - SEVILLE CR - 20 MW + 15 h storage (As GEMASOLAR) - DAGGET CR - 20 MW + 15 h storage (As GEMASOLAR) - HERMEL P arabolic T roug h without S torag e CR - 20 MW + 15 h storage (As GEMASOLAR) - SEVILLE PT - 50 MW + NO storage (As SEGS) DAGGET PT - 50 MW + NO storage (As SEGS) HERMEL P arabolic T roug h WIT H 7.5 h S torag e PT - 50 MW + NO storage (as SEGS) SEVILLE PT - 50 MW + 7.5 h storage (As ANDASOL) - DAGGET 0.300 PT - 50 MW + 7.5 h storage (As ANDASOL) - HERMEL PT - 50 MW + 7.5 h storage (As ANDASOL) - SEVILLE €/kWh Levelized Electricity Costs C entral R ec eiv er ~without S torag e 0.250 0.200 0.150 0.100 0.050 0.000 LEC: levelised electricity costs (15% HYBRID) PV Farms Techno-economic study underway for PV farms in Lebanon (CEDRO) – expected publication date (August 2012) Constraints; Area; it’s estimated that (mean) 6.4 acres (25,900 m2) are required to generate 1 megawatt of electricity using PV panels. This equates to almost five football fields of area per megawatt of electricity generated (NREL). Costs: Approximate $2,000,000/MW (Turnkey) excluding land rent (land rent = $5/m2 & 2.5% of capital cost for O&M). 12 Expected; Levelised cost = $c24 – 26/kWh Hydro-power from non-river sources CEDRO is undertaking an assessment of hydro-power potential from non-river sources; Irrigation channels Water distribution networks Electrical power plants Water treatment plants To date; 13 0.73 MW from irrigation (yet data availability a problem) 0.992 MW from water distribution (data a problem) 5.26 MW from power plants 0.123 MW from WWTP (data also an issue as is the entire WWTP sector) Total: 7.1 MW TASK 1: Resource Assessment Type Residues from fellings Residues of olive trees Residues of fruit trees Ranking 1 2 Residues of cereals 3 Energy crops 4 Cake by-products 5 Waste wood 6 Municipal sewage sludge 7 Animal fat Slaughterhouse residues 8 Yellow grease 9 Landfill potential 10 Task 3. Future scenarios Annual contribution of bioenergy to end-uses by year 2030 Energy use Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV Primary energy (GWh) 6953 2354 517 1543 Electricity (GWh) 934 475 73 261 Electricity (MWe) 119 62 9 33 % of total (4000 MW) 3% 1.5% 0.23% 0.8% Heat (ktoe) 131 78 14 39 % of total (347 ktoe in 2006) 37.7% 22.5% 4% 11.2% Transport (ktoe) 271 28 14 39 % of total (1511 ktoe in 2008) 18% 1.8% 1% 2.6% Final Energy Geothermal Power TASKS 1 Geothermal Resource Assessment 2 Recoverable Resource Estimates 3 Required Drilling and Power Producing Technologies and their Economic Feasibility 4 Environmental Impacts of Geothermal Power Production 5 Barriers to Geothermal Power Development in Lebanon April 2012 17 April 2013 Microgeneration ‘Micro-generation’ can be defined as the production of electricity or heat from a lowcarbon source, at capacities no more than 50kWe or 45kWth (UK definition). Microwind u-CHP (e.g. Fuel cells) PV SHW ASHP GSHP 18 Microgeneration Microwind • Very location specific • 1 kWp; 2,5004,000 USD with storage • 10-20 years PV • Expensive but costs reducing • 1 kWp; 5,0006,000 USD with storage • 20-30 years SHW • Most mature and cost-effective • 300 litres; 1200 – 1500 USD • Payback period; 25 years 19 JEZZINE GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 3,000 Liters HERMEL GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 4,000 Liters TRIPOLI GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 12,000 Liters SIBLINE GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 6,000 Liters Keserween Public Hospital - 6,000 Liters SAIDA GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 6,000 Liters (tanks) Photovoltaic system in Hosh-Oumara Community Center (Bekaa) UNDP-CEDRO 26 Khfour Public School (South) – 2 kWp The CEDRO Legacy The importance of stirring the local market CEDRO IMPACT (9.73 million USD) The commercial maturity of new and renewable energy technologies relative to market penetration (Foxon et al. 2005) 30 The CEDRO Impact; Market Creation and Employment Expression of Interest (EOI); Lots (e.g.); 30 25 1- PV 2- SHW 3- Energy efficiency 20 15 PV SHW 10 2008; PV; 10 firms applied, 7 passed SHW; 11 firms applied, 9 passed EE; 3 firms applied,3 passed EE 5 EE SHW 0 Applied Passed 2008 PV Applied Passed 2010 2010; PV; 27 firms applied, 13 passed SHW; 23 firms applied, 14 passed EE; 19 firms applied,7 passed (+ additional microwind Lot where 23 applied and 11 passed) Each of these companies employs between 15 – 50 + persons. 31 The CEDRO Legacy In brief; • CEDRO assisted in creating technical capacity building and initiated markets for small-scale renewable energy, esp. photovoltaic systems and commercial SHW systems • Shed light onto the renewable energy resources of the country, esp. wind, biomass, and geothermal. • Created opportunities for local contractors and consultants, • Pushed forward the RE agenda by assisting in influencing policies like net metering and how it can be applied technically • Focused on awareness on RE for the young generation • Hopefully an overhauled and informative website 32 What should be done next – small scale? • Other technologies require market initiation, esp. bioenergy demonstration projects. • Most importantly, market development policies are required… BACK TO THE S-Curve; – If the government of Lebanon does not introduce bold measures to financially support renewables, CEDRO’s work (and others like it) will go to waste! – Feed-in tariffs, even in a reduced form, must be assessed and introduced intelligently to take into account the current financial situation of the country, and how to subsidize this support while ensuring its’ 33 effectiveness. What should be done next – large scale? For large-scale renewable; – Assessment of integration and control into the national grid – National Regulatory Authority or its alternative (NRA) – and capacity building for this Authority in licensing PPA – We can’t wait 3 years after NRA is established!!! 34 Thank you Please contact CEDRO at: T/F: +961-1-981944 E: cedro@undp-lebprojects.org www.cedro-undp.org Beirut, Maarad Street, Building 287B, 1st floor CEDRO_UNDP